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“Science has guided my life”, Sultan Al Jaber hit back after being accused of denying the scientific consensus that a massive cut-back on fossil fuels is needed to prevent devastating climate impacts.

Striking a firm, and at times exasperated, tone, the oil executive-turned-Cop28 president slammed press reports as “misrepresentations”, the result of “statements taken out of context”.

Al Jaber insisted he had said “over and over that the phase-down and phase out of fossil fuels is inevitable”. But, “how come does this never get picked up [by the media]?” he asked, appearing to have taken the criticism personally.

To reinforce his pro-science credentials, Al Jaber came to the press conference with Jim Skea, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

To nods from the Cop28 president, Skea said that in 1.5C-compatible scenarios “by 2050, fossil fuel use is greatly reduced and unabated coal use is completely phased out.” He added that oil use by 2050 is reduced by 60% and gas by 45%. Al Jaber, Skea said, was “attentive to the science” and “fully understood it”.


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Event: Reading the politics

At 18:00 Dubai time today, Tuesday 5 December, Climate Home News will review the first week of Cop28 with special guests Vanessa Nakate, Bernice Lee and Harjeet Singh.

Register to watch live on Zoom and submit written questions to the panel.


‘The mother of all cover decisions’

As Cop28 enters the deep negotiations phase, anxiety is kicking in. Work on the crucial global stocktake text proceeds at snail’s pace. This is expected to be the main outcome of the summit, or as lead EU negotiator Jacob Werksman put it, “the mother of all cover decisions”.

It took three days to complete the first read-through of a document that is littered with multiple options and placeholders on every contentious issue.

“We are behind in the negotiating process,” said Madeleine Diouf Sarr, chair of the least developed countries.

Negotiators spent a big chunk of Monday huddled in informal talks trying to chart a path forward. The goal is to hand ministers, landing in Dubai in a couple of days, something easier to work with than a long list of open questions. At time of writing, a new text was expected by Tuesday morning.

cop28 negotiations stocktake

Informal negotiations continued on Monday. Photo: IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis

The atmosphere is “positive”, three observers told Climate Home, but divisions remain on fundamental issues: the energy package, climate finance and the guidelines for the next round of national climate plans (NDCs).

To some extent, negotiators have got themselves to blame for the long nights ahead. Last June, an extended fight over the agenda in Bonn hindered progress, leaving all the painstaking work to Dubai.

“The fundamental challenge is that we came into Cop28 without a formal negotiating text,” Kaveh Guilanpour, a former lead negotiator for the EU and UK, told Climate Home. “After Bonn, all we had was unagreed headings, and no substantive discussions.”


Banga dismisses fear of the World Bank

One of the biggest concessions developing countries made to get a loss and damage fund up and running was agreeing to let the World Bank initially host it.

Developing countries expressed strong concerns about US dominance of the Bank’s culture and limits that placed on the new fund’s autonomy.

When Climate Home News nabbed president Ajay Banga for a quick interview after a side event, he dismissed such fears as a “misunderstanding”.

“That position is based on the idea that somehow the World Bank will control how that money is put out to work. That’s not the method, which is why they approved it. We’re only a trustee,” Banga said.

“I don’t know where the misunderstanding came from that we somehow will be deciding how the money is used,” he added.

While the World Bank will not dictate funding decisions, the fund’s staff will be Bank employees, which could influence work culture, said Liane Schalatek, Associate Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. World Bank staff could also be seconded to the loss and damage fund.

Michai Robertson, a climate finance negotiator for small island states, remained wary. The “biggest obstacle” for the not-yet-elected board will be negotiating against the World Bank’s policies, he said in a press conference.

“This institution will need to, as its president has highlighted that it’s ready to reform, will need to change,” Robertson said.


In brief

More important things – While dozens of world leaders spoke at Cop28, others stayed away. China’s Xi Jinping was inspecting the coast guard, Canada’s Justin Trudeau was eating Chinese food and campaigning in Ontario, Australia’s Anthony Albanese was calling in to talk radio show in Melbourne and we don’t know what the US’s Joe Biden was doing.

$57bn ‘mobilised’ – The Cop28 presidency claims to have mobilised over $57 billion so far “in new pledges and commitments”. This includes its own $30 billion Alterra Fund and the US’s $3 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund. We’re working on a full breakdown.

Hero to fossil – Last year, Brazil’s president Lula got a rock star reception from civil society at Cop27. Today, his Brazilian government was awarded the Fossil of the Day award by campaigners after it moved closer to the OPEC+ group of oil producers.

Emissions up – Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to grow 1.1% in 2023, new research from the Cicero finds. Emissions have grown on average 0.5% a year over the last ten years. Separate research finds 2023 is likely to be the peak.

The post Cop28 bullettin: IPCC chief defends Al Jaber over science firestorm appeared first on Climate Home News.

Cop28 bulletin: IPCC chief defends Al Jaber over science firestorm

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Hurricane Helene Is Headed for Georgians’ Electric Bills

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A new storm recovery charge could soon hit Georgia Power customers’ bills, as climate change drives more destructive weather across the state.

Hurricane Helene may be long over, but its costs are poised to land on Georgians’ electricity bills. After the storm killed 37 people in Georgia and caused billions in damage in September 2024, Georgia Power is seeking permission from state regulators to pass recovery costs on to customers.

Hurricane Helene Is Headed for Georgians’ Electric Bills

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Amid Affordability Crisis, New Jersey Hands $250 Million Tax Break to Data Center

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Gov. Mikie Sherrill says she supports both AI and lowering her constituents’ bills.

With New Jersey’s cost-of-living “crisis” at the center of Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s agenda, her administration has inherited a program that approved a $250 million tax break for an artificial intelligence data center.

Amid Affordability Crisis, New Jersey Hands $250 Million Tax Break to Data Center

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Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace

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Gabrielle Dreyfus is chief scientist at the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, Thomas Röckmann is a professor of atmospheric physics and chemistry at Utrecht University, and Lena Höglund Isaksson is a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

This March scientists and policy makers will gather near the site in Italy where methane was first identified 250 years ago to share the latest science on methane and the policy and technology steps needed to rapidly cut methane emissions. The timing is apt.

As new tools transform our understanding of methane emissions and their sources, the evidence they reveal points to a single conclusion: Human-caused methane emissions are still rising, and global action remains far too slow.

This is the central finding of the latest Global Methane Status Report. Four years into the Global Methane Pledge, which aims for a 30% cut in global emissions by 2030, the good news is that the pledge has increased mitigation ambition under national plans, which, if fully implemented, could result in the largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions since the Industrial Revolution.

The bad news is this is still short of the 30% target. The decisive question is whether governments will move quickly enough to turn that bend into the steep decline required to pump the brake on global warming.

What the data really show

Assessing progress requires comparing three benchmarks: the level of emissions today relative to 2020, the trajectory projected in 2021 before methane received significant policy focus, and the level required by 2030 to meet the pledge.

The latest data show that global methane emissions in 2025 are higher than in 2020 but not as high as previously expected. In 2021, emissions were projected to rise by about 9% between 2020 and 2030. Updated analysis places that increase closer to 5%. This change is driven by factors such as slower than expected growth in unconventional gas production between 2020 and 2024 and lower than expected waste emissions in several regions.

Gas flaring soars in Niger Delta post-Shell, afflicting communities  

This updated trajectory still does not deliver the reductions required, but it does indicate that the curve is beginning to bend. More importantly, the commitments already outlined in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions and Methane Action Plans would, if fully implemented, produce an 8% reduction in global methane emissions between 2020 and 2030. This would turn the current increase into a sustained decline. While still insufficient to reach the Global Methane Pledge target of a 30% cut, it would represent historical progress.

Solutions are known and ready

Scientific assessments consistently show that the technical potential to meet the pledge exists. The gap lies not in technology, but in implementation.

The energy sector accounts for approximately 70% of total technical methane reduction potential between 2020 and 2030. Proven measures include recovering associated petroleum gas in oil production, regular leak detection and repair across oil and gas supply chains, and installing ventilation air oxidation technologies in underground coal mines. Many of these options are low cost or profitable. Yet current commitments would achieve only one third of the maximum technically feasible reductions in this sector.

Recent COP hosts Brazil and Azerbaijan linked to “super-emitting” methane plumes

Agriculture and waste also provide opportunities. Rice emissions can be reduced through improved water management, low-emission hybrids and soil amendments. While innovations in technology and practices hold promise in the longer term, near-term potential in livestock is more constrained and trends in global diets may counteract gains.

Waste sector emissions had been expected to increase more rapidly, but improvements in waste management in several regions over the past two decades have moderated this rise. Long-term mitigation in this sector requires immediate investment in improved landfills and circular waste systems, as emissions from waste already deposited will persist in the short term.

New measurement tools

Methane monitoring capacity has expanded significantly. Satellite-based systems can now identify methane super-emitters. Ground-based sensors are becoming more accessible and can provide real-time data. These developments improve national inventories and can strengthen accountability.

However, policy action does not need to wait for perfect measurement. Current scientific understanding of source magnitudes and mitigation effectiveness is sufficient to achieve a 30% reduction between 2020 and 2030. Many of the largest reductions in oil, gas and coal can be delivered through binding technology standards that do not require high precision quantification of emissions.

The decisive years ahead

The next 2 years will be critical for determining whether existing commitments translate into emissions reductions consistent with the Global Methane Pledge.

Governments should prioritise adoption of an effective international methane performance standard for oil and gas, including through the EU Methane Regulation, and expand the reach of such standards through voluntary buyers’ clubs. National and regional authorities should introduce binding technology standards for oil, gas and coal to ensure that voluntary agreements are backed by legal requirements.

One approach to promoting better progress on methane is to develop a binding methane agreement, starting with the oil and gas sector, as suggested by Barbados’ PM Mia Mottley and other leaders. Countries must also address the deeper challenge of political and economic dependence on fossil fuels, which continues to slow progress. Without a dual strategy of reducing methane and deep decarbonisation, it will not be possible to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.

Mottley’s “legally binding” methane pact faces barriers, but smaller steps possible

The next four years will determine whether available technologies, scientific evidence and political leadership align to deliver a rapid transition toward near-zero methane energy systems, holistic and equity-based lower emission agricultural systems and circular waste management strategies that eliminate methane release. These years will also determine whether the world captures the near-term climate benefits of methane abatement or locks in higher long-term costs and risks.

The Global Methane Status Report shows that the world is beginning to change course. Delivering the sharper downward trajectory now required is a test of political will. As scientists, we have laid out the evidence. Leaders must now act on it.

The post Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace appeared first on Climate Home News.

Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace

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