Climate change is creating “new vulnerabilities” for pandemics, according to new research.
The study, published in Science Advances, investigates nine zoonotic diseases – infections transmitted from animals to people – with high potential to cause severe public-health emergencies.
These diseases include the Zika virus, Ebola and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
Overall, the research finds that 9% of the planet’s land area is currently at “high” or “very high” risk of an outbreak of these diseases.
The study authors find that higher temperatures, increased rainfall and water scarcity are “key drivers” of disease outbreaks.
However, the paper has received a mixed reception from other scientists.
While one expert not involved in the study praises it for its novelty and rigour, another tells Carbon Brief that the research fails to capture some of the key drivers of zoonotic disease.
They tell Carbon Brief that “this idea that you can do a one-size-fits-all global risk assessment is just untrue”.
Zoonotic disease
There are more than 200 known “zoonotic diseases” – infections or diseases that are transmitted to humans from pets, livestock or wild animals.
Zoonotic diseases are spread when the pathogen that causes the disease – such as a virus, bacterium, fungus or parasite – moves from animals to humans. This can be through a bite, blood, saliva or faeces.
Lyme disease, rabies and bird flu are examples of well-known zoonotic diseases. One of the most well-known, Covid-19, is thought to have killed hundreds of thousands of people since the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first recorded in humans in 2019.
Pathogens are typically carried by animals, called hosts. For example, dogs are the main hosts of rabies.
The World Health Organization (WHO) keeps a list of “priority diseases” for research and development. These are zoonotic diseases that have the potential to cause severe public health emergencies, such as epidemics – in which there is a sharp rise in cases in a specific region – and pandemics, where a disease occurs over a very wide area and crosses borders.
The WHO updates its list regularly. It currently features the following zoonoses:
- Zika virus
- Ebola virus and Marburg virus disease
- SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)
- Covid-19
- Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever
- Lassa fever
- Nipah disease and henipaviral diseases
- Rift Valley fever
- “Disease X” (a label created by the WHO in 2018 to represent a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic)
The number of new zoonotic diseases is increasing rapidly.
Many different factors can influence the spread of zoonotic diseases. One of the most important is climate. Pathogens and the animals that carry them typically thrive in a warm and wet climate, so many zoonotic diseases are found in tropical regions.
The frequency of contact between humans and animals is another important factor. This means that when people live close to areas of high biodiversity, such as forests, there is a higher risk of zoonotic disease transmission.
Mapping risk
The authors of the new study collected data on “outbreaks” of the WHO priority zoonotic diseases over 1975-2020 from the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network.
They exclude Covid-19 from their analysis, although it is a WHO priority disease, because its “overwhelming prevalence” resulted in worldwide coverage, making it difficult to identify spatial patterns.
The database defines an outbreak as two or more linked cases of the same illness, a number of cases that exceeds the expected number, or a single case of disease “caused by a pathogen that poses a significant threat to public health”, the study explains.
The authors identified 131 outbreaks of infectious diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential over 1975-2020
The authors then used satellite data to identify nine “risk factors” that can affect the transmission of zoonotic diseases:
- Annual maximum temperature
- Annual minimum temperature
- Water deficit
- Annual total rainfall
- Livestock density
- Frequency of land-use change
- Change in proximity between humans and forests
- Biodiversity loss
- Human population density
The authors used a “predictive model”, which makes use of machine-learning techniques, to combine these variables. This allows them to determine the risk of climate outbreaks from the WHO priority diseases in different regions.
Finally, the authors adjusted their results to account for a bias in how data on disease outbreaks is recorded. In developed countries and regions, diseases are more likely to be detected and recorded, while this is less likely in developing regions.
The map below shows the risk of a disease breakout across the world from the nine WHO priority zoonotic diseases. Darker colours indicate greater risk, while white indicates regions where not enough data was available.
The map shows that the southern hemisphere of the planet has a higher risk of pandemic breakout than the northern hemisphere, “with the majority of those areas located in Latin America and Oceania”. Meanwhile, very little risk is seen in Europe and North America.
The authors find that 9% of the world’s land surface, home to around 130 million people, is at “very high” or “high” risk of outbreaks of the diseases.
Lead author Dr Angela Fanelli is a researcher at the European Commission’s Joint Research Council. She tells Carbon Brief that “this study is the first to comprehensively examine the shared drivers of zoonotic diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential on a global scale”.
The authors also use data from the International Health Regulations to score countries based on their capacity to respond to zoonotic events at the animal-wildlife interface.
By integrating this data into their analysis, the authors developed an “epidemic risk index” which shows each country’s risk and capacity to respond to “zoonotic threats”. In this index, Papua New Guinea is ranked as the lowest – indicating the greatest risk of epidemics.
The full table is shown below, where a higher number indicates a greater risk of epidemics.
‘New vulnerabilities’
The authors went on to analyse the different factors that influence the risk of zoonotic breakout.
The charts below illustrate how, for most risk factors explored in the report, a higher value results in a greater risk score for zoonotic disease outbreak.
For example, the plot on the top left shows how higher maximum temperatures lead to a higher risk of disease outbreak.
The paper notes that higher temperature and annual rainfall levels “elevate the risk of disease outbreaks”. It suggests that this is because host species are better adapted to hotter, wetter conditions.
The paper also assesses water deficit, a measure that can capture the monthly differences between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration – the transfer of water from the ground into the air through a combination of evaporation and transpiration.
The authors find that “moderate water scarcity” is associated with the highest risk of outbreaks. This could be because moderate water scarcity can cause animals to group together around remaining water sources, allowing the pathogen to be transferred more easily, they suggest.
Meanwhile, they say that “excessively arid conditions” can cause the host population to die out, meaning the pathogen is unable to spread.
Fanelli tells Carbon Brief that the study highlights “several key mechanisms by which climate change could increase the risk of disease outbreaks”.
Climate change, she says, can make host populations “more susceptible to disease outbreaks” and result in water shortages that “compromise water quality, hygiene and sanitation, further increasing the risk of disease outbreaks.”
The authors warn that the changing climate is “creating new vulnerabilities” for zoonotic disease transmission as it “reshapes the geographic distribution of risk”.
The paper also finds that changes in land use can increase disease risk. When people cut down trees in areas of high biodiversity, they can suddenly come into contact with species that they do not usually interact with, providing an opportunity for pathogens to jump from humans to animals, the authors find.
Higher population densities of people or livestock are also linked to a higher risk of zoonotic diseases, because the pathogens are able to spread more easily.
Mixed reception
The study has received mixed responses from scientists not involved in the work.
Dr Ibrahima Diouf, a postdoctoral researcher on climate and health at Senegal’s Cheikh Anta Diop University, tells Carbon Brief that the research “offers a more holistic perspective” than studies that focus on a single disease and has a “sound, innovative and transparent” methodology.
He also praises the study for “bridg[ing] environmental modelling and public health planning”, and for capturing both hazard exposure and “national response capacity”. He says:
“This dual lens enables practical prioritisation of interventions. Countries like the Republic of Congo and Madagascar, which face both high risk and limited response capacity, emerge as key candidates for targeted support through regional or multilateral adaptation programmes.”
Dr Colin Carlson, an assistant professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, tells Carbon Brief that this type of work “has been done before”:
“We’ve seen a lot of these studies that look at a hundred or so outbreaks and then use machine learning – an approach that will almost always find some kind of signal – to confirm their hypothesis that environmental degradation drives disease outbreaks.”
Carlson also criticises the study’s methodology, arguing that the variables the authors chose focus on “intact tropical rainforests and other tropical ecosystems” that are “hot, wet, biodiverse [and] populated”. He continues:
“That’s where a lot of disease outbreaks are, but that’s true as much because of poverty as because of the environment, if not more.”
Carlson tells Carbon Brief that “this idea that you can do a one-size-fits-all global risk assessment is just untrue”.
He adds that the work contributes to a “narrative that spillover [of pathogens from animals to humans] is a problem of the global south – and that pandemics happen because the people living in these countries are somehow unengaged in outbreak prevention or unwilling to leave nature alone”.
In Carlson’s view, this narrative is “wrong”.
The post Climate change is creating ‘new vulnerabilities’ for disease pandemics appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate change is creating ‘new vulnerabilities’ for disease pandemics
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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