Connect with us

Published

on

China, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, has set its first absolute emissions reduction goal. In a video at the UN climate summit in New York, President Xi Jinping announced that China aims to cut emissions by 7 to 10% by 2035 compared to its peak.

This marks a major shift in China’s climate policy. Before, the focus was on reducing carbon intensity and setting peak timelines. While this pledge indicates progress, many experts believe it lacks the ambition needed to meet global targets in the Paris Agreement.

A New Era in China’s Climate Policy

Xi’s pledge is China’s first absolute emissions reduction goal. It targets all greenhouse gases and economic sectors, moving beyond earlier commitments that focused only on carbon intensity.

In addition to the 7–10 percent cut, Beijing promised to:

  • Increase the share of non-fossil fuels to over 30 percent of total energy use by 2035.
  • Expand wind and solar capacity to 3,600 gigawatts, over six times 2020 levels.
  • Strengthen its national emissions trading market to support reductions.

As reported by the leading daily, South China Morning Post, Xi called this change a sign of the times, stating: “Green and low-carbon energy and development transition are the trend of our era.”

However, climate advocates quickly pointed out the shortcomings. Yao Zhe, a global policy adviser from Greenpeace East Asia, noted that to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, China needs to cut emissions by at least 30 percent by 2035. Some studies suggest cuts of over 50 percent are necessary.

Between Caution and Flexibility

China’s choice of a conservative target is strategic. Experts say the 7–10 percent cut reflects Beijing’s desire to maintain flexibility for economic growth and energy security.

Xi also suggested the commitment might be exceeded, calling it a “floor, not a ceiling.” This means stronger reductions could happen based on changing domestic and international conditions.

Signs of a Peak: China’s Emissions Show Early Decline

Recent data hints that China’s emissions may have peaked. From March 2024 to March 2025, emissions from the power sector dropped by about 2 percent due to record renewable capacity and reduced coal use.

In the first half of 2025, overall CO₂ emissions fell by about 1 percent. Solar installations hit record highs, and wind power capacity surged. Coal consumption in power dropped by 3 percent during this time.

Chine emissions

Yet, contradictions remain. Emissions from coal-based chemicals and synthetic fuels are still rising, undermining progress. Additionally, 2024 saw the highest number of new coal power permits in a decade, showing provincial governments still rely on coal for short-term needs.

China’s greenhouse gas emissions were around 15.8 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2024, near record levels. Analysts expect a plateau soon, followed by gradual declines, but only if the next five-year plan prioritizes rapid decarbonization.

Record-Breaking Clean Energy Push

Despite the modest target, China’s clean energy growth is remarkable. According to Ember’s China Energy Transition Review 2025, the country invested $625 billion in renewables in 2024, surpassing Europe and North America combined.

Key milestones include:

  • Wind and solar capacity exceeded 1,200 gigawatts by 2024, hitting the target six years early.
  • Investment in national energy projects, like offshore wind and grid upgrades, rose 22 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025.
  • New energy storage technologies saw a 69 percent increase in deployment.
  • A national power market is expected to launch by late 2025, allowing for cross-regional trading and more renewable energy participation.

China’s renewable pipeline now exceeds 1 terawatt, more than double the EU’s total capacity. The speed and scale of this growth are unmatched globally.

In the past 15 years, China has turned its industrial strength into a major force for global decarbonization. No other country can produce energy technologies at this scale, reshaping global markets.

China clean energy
Source: Ember

Now moving on to this year, NEA data shows that as of February 2025, China has a total cumulative installed power capacity of 3,402GW. It’s up14.5% yoy.

China renewable capacity

Global Climate Stage: Xi’s Pledge Shakes the Spotlight

Xi’s announcement comes as global climate politics reach a crucial point. Top media reports indicate that nations must update their 2035 climate plans under the Paris Agreement before COP30 in Brazil. As the largest emitter, China’s targets will greatly influence global warming limits.

While Beijing chose a cautious target, the European Union is moving aggressively. The EU plans to cut emissions by 66 to 72 percent by 2035, far more ambitious than China’s promise. The bloc is finalizing its plan this year as part of its goal for net zero by 2050.

India has not yet proposed an absolute emissions reduction goal, focusing instead on reducing carbon intensity and boosting non-fossil fuel use.

The United States has stepped back under President Trump, who called climate efforts “the greatest con job ever.” This gap in climate leadership is one Xi seems eager to fill. He criticized countries resisting climate action, urging international focus.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva praised China’s plan, stating that Beijing is advancing “much further” in its energy transition than critics believe.

China’s Climate Path: Ambition or Hesitation?

Critics argue that China’s pledge falls short of what’s necessary. Yet, even a 7–10 percent cut means a significant reduction in absolute terms. For China, this could mean hundreds of millions of tonnes of emissions avoided by 2035.

This pledge shows a structural shift. China is moving from relative intensity goals to an absolute cap. This is required under the Paris Agreement for countries that have peaked their emissions. This change makes it harder to rely on efficiency gains while emissions rise.

China’s 7–10 percent emissions cut by 2035 is historic yet underwhelming. It marks a first step toward reducing emissions from the world’s largest greenhouse gas source, but does not meet scientific demands to keep warming below 1.5°C.

The country’s clean energy growth is unmatched. It’s reshaping global supply chains and lowering costs. With record renewable investments and quick electrification, Beijing acts as both a careful climate player and a leader in the green transition.

Nonetheless, whether China deepens its ambition in the coming years will be crucial for the world’s climate future.

The post China Moves Toward Carbon Cap: Xi Jinping Pledges 7–10% Emissions Cut by 2035 appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD

Published

on

For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

How community stewardship makes carbon credits durable

Published

on

A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility

Published

on

What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.

Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.

Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.

What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working

The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.

Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.

The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.

The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.

The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.

The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.

What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign

The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.

  • What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
  • What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
  • What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
  • What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
  • What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.

If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.

Where this leaves your near-term commitments

You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.

You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.

Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.

If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com