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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

China to play major role in global energy shift

ELECTRIFICATION: As the world moves into the “age of electricity”, China’s per-capita demand for electricity will grow to overtake that of all advanced economies combined by 2030 under current policy settings, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2024. The report said this is due to the country’s rising electrification, pushed forward by adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and other low-carbon technologies, as well as economic growth. 

LOW-CARBON POWER: China accounted for 60% of worldwide renewable installations in 2023 and its solar power generation alone will, by 2035, exceed the US’ current total electricity demand, WEO said. A separate IEA report released last week found that China will add 60% of new renewables installations globally between 2024 and 2030. This rapid expansion, according to WEO, will help China lead a global decline in carbon emissions after 2030, with China’s emissions falling to 8% below 2023 levels by 2030 and 24% below by 2035, based on current policy settings. (These figures rise to 17% and 45%, respectively, if China meets its announced pledges.) However, to align with the IEA’s scenario for net-zero emissions by 2050, China’s clean power would need to expand 1.5-times faster than current rates and investment – particularly in grids and energy storage – would need to double.

OIL SLOWS, COAL RISING: China, the world’s largest importer of oil, is currently spurring a “major slowdown” in oil demand growth, largely due to its rapid adoption of EVs, said the report. However, the IEA also said that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest oil consuming country by 2030 and remain the largest oil importer until 2050. Similarly, China is also the largest coal user. It consumed around 55% of the coal used to generate electricity globally and added 73% of the world’s new coal-fired power capacity in 2023, WEO said. (Bloomberg reported that China is also still developing new coal-fired power overseas.) Nevertheless, WEO added that China’s coal consumption for power is likely to peak “in the next few years”.

High-level environmental meeting held 

ANNUAL MEETING: The China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED), a high-level environmental advisory body to the Chinese government, held its annual general meeting on 10-12 October, Earth Negotiations Bulletin reported. About 400 people, including global experts, such as WWF director general Kirsten Schuijt, and high-profile Chinese officials attended the meeting, said China Environment News. Following discussions supervised by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, CCICED revised a series of draft recommendations, which included: combining “ambitious goals with pragmatic actions” in China’s “nationally determined contribution” under the Paris Agreement and establishing an absolute emissions reduction goal for 2035; setting a target of 2,400 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind capacity by 2030 and 6,000GW by 2040; and accelerating the expansion of the national carbon market and shifting to auctions for carbon allowances, which are currently given for free. 

HEAVY HITTERS: Several influential political figures spoke at the meeting, including executive vice-premier Ding Xuexiang, who reiterated China’s willingness to “work with all parties” on building “a clean and beautiful world” and said it will follow the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” in “global environmental challenges”, according to the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily. Environment minister Huang Runqiu told delegates that, to advance climate goals, China will focus on six key areas: better “prevention” of emissions; more “precise” emissions control; building “norms” and standards in climate policy; “market guidance”; scientific and technological “empowerment”; and “openness and win-win cooperation”, state news agency Xinhua said. Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said that “many of the concerns of developing countries at COP28 have not been adequately addressed”, adding that “developed countries…[need to take] the lead in reducing emissions”, according to news outlet China News. Liu’s predecessor, Xie Zhenhua, said in a speech that, “compared with mitigation, in developing countries, adaptation…needs to be solved more than anything else”, said the Paper, a Shanghai-based newspaper. 

Diversifying critical mineral supply chains 

GROWING FRUSTRATION: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) confirmed that it is “courting new investors” in order to “diversify ownership” in its mining industry, currently dominated by China, Bloomberg reported. It quotes mines minister Kizito Pakabomba saying the country “is looking to make strategic choices about who runs Congo’s mines”. The outlet added that the DRC has “grown increasingly frustrated by its lack of influence over its mining industry, particularly in cobalt”, a mineral central to the production of some types of EV batteries. The Wall Street Journal said the US is encouraging companies to purchase cobalt producer Chemaf in DRC, after blocking its sale to the Chinese state-backed Norin Mining.

MINERALS ALLIANCE: Meanwhile, the US and India have agreed to “cooperate on strengthening supply chains in India and US for lithium, cobalt and other critical minerals”, the Indian Express reported, adding that the agreement “still fall[s] short of a full critical minerals trade deal” allowing India to access US tax credits for EVs. The newspaper also noted that India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal aimed to “include other countries in the partnership, especially those who are already mineral rich like countries in Africa and South America”. In response to the agreement, an editorial in the state-run newspaper China Daily said the US, “understandably, does not want to put all its eggs in one basket in the face of rising tensions with China” and described a similar minerals deal with Vietnam as “lip service”, adding that “the US helps none but itself”.

HARSH RHETORIC: Meanwhile, the US Department of State’s under secretary for economic growth, energy and the environment Jose Fernandez criticised China for producing too much lithium for global consumption and alleged it was triggering a “predatory” price drop in an “intentional response” to the US’ Inflation Reduction Act, in comments covered by Reuters

Spotlight 

China’s birth policy ‘could raise emissions 20% by 2060’

A study published in Nature Climate Change finds that China’s current population policies – allowing families to have three children – could increase its future carbon emissions. 

However, lead author Prof Zhifu Mi, who researches climate change economics at University College London’s (UCL) Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, tells Carbon Brief that this finding is not to imply that China should reverse its demographic policies.

In an interview, Mi says that, in response to the findings, China could consider a “synergistic approach” to both “fertility policies” and “climate action strategies”.

Carbon Brief: What impact does China’s current population size and demographic makeup have on its carbon emissions?

Zhifu Mi: Population size and demographic composition significantly influence a country’s carbon emissions. Population is one of the primary drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. China has long been the most populous nation, contributing to its status as the largest carbon emitter all over the world. [In 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous nation.]

Age structure also plays a role in emissions. The per-capita carbon footprint of younger people (under 30) in China is approximately 1.8 times that of older people (60 and above). This pattern contrasts with developed countries, where older individuals often have higher carbon footprints.

CB: To avoid demographic pressures, China is encouraging families to have three children and its workforce to delay retirement. You found that relaxing limits on family size would make it harder to meet China’s carbon neutrality goal. Could you explain these findings?

ZM: Both relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement would increase carbon emissions via boosting the labour force. The impact of relaxing fertility policies [and allowing families to have more children] is notably greater than delaying retirement. Shifting from a two-child to a three-child policy would result in a roughly 20% increase in China’s total carbon emissions by 2060.

CB: How are the emissions profiles of China’s young people different to its elderly?

ZM: Younger individuals in China have higher per-capita carbon footprints due to age-related income differences. Their higher per-capita carbon footprints are related to clothing, goods and transport, while older Chinese have higher per-capita carbon footprints related to healthcare.

CB: Some previous research, suggesting that having fewer children is one of the best ways for individuals to cut their carbon footprints, has been criticised for ignoring the impact of climate action, which could reduce the per-capita emissions of the next generation. What do you think about the wider debate on population growth and climate change? 

ZM: I disagree with the idea that having fewer children is one of the best ways to cut carbon footprints. Beyond climate change mitigation, we have many other Sustainable Development Goals to consider. While reducing population growth can lower carbon footprints to some extent, population also drives socio-economic development. 

Our research indicates that relaxing fertility policies would increase China’s household carbon footprint. We present this objective phenomenon with the hope that this impact of fertility policy will be integrated into climate action strategies.

CB: The paper states that your results should not be read to imply that China must reverse its three-child and retirement-delay policies, but that the policies should be synergised with emissions reductions targets. In your view, what steps could the Chinese government take to do so?

ZM: Yes, our result is not to imply that such policies should be avoided to reduce environmental pressure. We recommend a synergistic approach, considering both population policies and climate goals.

First, climate policies should be tailored to the specific demographic structures of different regions in China – promoting greener consumption and sustainable lifestyles among younger people is crucial. Second, addressing income and consumption disparities across age groups can help mitigate the carbon impacts of fertility and retirement policies. Third, when setting climate targets for each province, population size and demographic composition should be key considerations.

CB: Your paper talks about the need to explore what would happen if China misses its 2060 target, which, as China’s NDC notes, is a challenging goal to meet. What do you see as the key hurdles in this effort?

ZM: Achieving carbon neutrality is a significant challenge for China, particularly because the country has only 30 years to reduce its net carbon emissions to zero after peaking. In contrast, developed countries have had much longer timelines. For instance, the EU…[has allowed] for about 70 years to reduce emissions [from its peak to net-zero]. The US, with a peak in 2005, has 45 years to reach net-zero. China’s more compressed timeline, coupled with the higher volume of emissions to be reduced, makes the challenge more daunting.

Furthermore, China’s energy mix, which is dominated by coal and lacks sufficient oil and gas resources, poses another significant hurdle…Finally, China’s regional economic development is uneven. Eastern regions have witnessed rapid economic growth and industrialisation, while central and western regions lag behind. This imbalance…further complicates China’s path to carbon neutrality.

Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

Watch, read, listen

SUNNY DISPOSITIONS: State broadcaster CCTV’s flagship interview programme Duihua (Dialogue, 对话) aired a discussion of the state of the solar industry with major Chinese solar manufacturers, including Tongwei, LONGi and JingkoSolar. 

FIVE-YEAR PLAN: The California-China Climate Institute, a research institute housed at UC Berkeley, issued recommendations for ways Chinese policymakers can take climate goals into account as they prepare for the 15th “five-year plan” (2026-2030).   

NDC WATCH: China must avoid setting “conservative near-term climate goals”, an opinion article in Foreign Policy by Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, and Byford Tsang, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argued. 

GREEN FINANCE: Yuan Yuan, a climate and energy campaigner at Greenpeace East Asia, wrote in the Shuang Tan newsletter how the asset management industry can improve climate-related risk management and disclosure standards.


51%

The percentage of Chinese citizens who believe that the US and China have “common objectives” on environment and climate change issues, according to a public opinion poll carried out by Tsinghua University on China’s outlook on international security. Respondents also ranked climate change as the 8th most concerning risk from a list of 18 global security challenges. 


New science

Can combined wind and solar power meet the increased electricity load on heatwave days in China after the carbon emission peak? A case study in southern Hebei
Journal of Cleaner Production

A new study revealed that wind and solar power generation could meet the increase in electricity consumption in China’s Hebei province on heatwave days from 2039, in part because heatwaves would raise wind and solar power generation as well as power demand. Using data from the south of Hebei province, which boasts the highest combined wind and solar capacity in China, researchers developed load and wind power models and calibrated “a boosting ensemble learning model to simulate solar generation”. Results showed Hebei could “harness” wind and solar energy to address demand but energy storage capacity would be needed to ensure full coverage.

Comparative analysis of embodied carbon in modular and conventional construction methods in Hong Kong
Scientific Reports

Using modular integrated construction, where parts of new buildings are prefabricated elsewhere and brought to be installed on-site, rather than conventional construction methods, reduced embodied carbon in a Covid-19 isolation facility in Hong Kong by 21%, according to a new study. The study used an embodied carbon assessment of the isolation facility. It found that the reduction in embodied carbon was primarily due to “shortened construction timelines, decreased waste generation and optimised material usage”. 

Energy transition in China: Is there a role for climate policy uncertainty?
Journal of Environmental Management

New research found that climate policy uncertainty in China “significantly hinders the progress” of China’s energy transition, particularly by “reducing the level of green finance development and hindering the optimisation of [the] energy structure”. The study used data from 277 Chinese cities to assess this dynamic, discovering that in regions with “weak environmental regulations, high fiscal decentralisation and low administrative levels”, uncertainty has a higher impact on energy transitions. It also stated that climate policy uncertainty further limited the “high-quality development” of China’s economy and levels of “green innovation”.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 17 October 2024: China’s electrification to disrupt oil; High-level environment meeting; Aligning China’s population and climate policies appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 17 October 2024: China’s electrification to disrupt oil; High-level environment meeting; Aligning China’s population and climate policies

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When taps run dry in the Caribbean, it’s not enough to blame El Niño

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Amira Odeh Quiñones is a hydrologist and Caribbean organiser for the 350.org climate campaign group

El Niño, likely to be one of the strongest in modern history, has arrived on Caribbean shores.

Drought is slowly creeping up on our islands. But unlike the fiery wildfires ravaging parts of Europe, there’s no smoke signalling the damage being done, no sirens to warn of the danger. Only announcements from public health officials to stay indoors and remain hydrated — as if outdoor workers and farming communities have the luxury to heed such advice.

During El Niño, strong atmospheric winds alter rain patterns and trap heat across the Caribbean. But while we have experienced El Niño many times before, it has become very visible in recent years how climate change is making this natural phenomenon worse.

Across the Greater Antilles, temperatures are soaring past 38°C (100°F), with real-feel indexes reaching a gruelling 43°C in parts of Puerto Rico where I live. Cuba has it worse. Widespread power outages mean that methods for cooling down are unavailable for most of the day, leaving millions of vulnerable people at risk of heat stroke when temperatures hit 38°C.

Santa Marta coalition tested as co-chair Colombia turns back to fossil fuels

During the last strong drought a decade ago, I had water only two days a week in my home. Today, there are many families whose taps are about to run completely dry. Water authorities have already begun strict rationing in some municipalities, with more on the list scheduled for rationing if conditions don’t change.

Water rationing is far more than an inconvenience; it is an immediate health risk. This means thousands of people need to constantly haul heavy buckets up flights of stairs just so they could bathe, cook, stay hydrated – the basics of survival.

Heat causes health problems

Puerto Rico is home to roughly 300,000 elderly residents. Many live alone, isolated and without support. They risk severe physical injury when carrying heavy water containers, and are wont to suffer from silent heat exhaustion in unventilated rooms.

Furthermore, when water shortages force residents to store water in open household containers, it inadvertently creates breeding grounds for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Paired with scorching temperatures that tend to shorten the mosquito breeding cycle, the region is facing explosive outbreaks of dengue fever that endanger our most vulnerable: children and the elderly.

The economic fallout is equally devastating. Dry fields mean millions of dollars in lost crops, forcing small agricultural businesses to collapse, needing urgent government relief to survive. Extreme fuel shortages have already paralyzed Cuba’s agricultural sector, cutting food output by 60% – the El Niño dry spell threatens to decimate it.

At sea, warmer ocean waters fuel massive influxes of sargassum seaweed. Rotting sargassum chokes our beaches, destroying the local tourism industry that so many working families rely on. Tangled seaweed also damages nets and boat engines, slashing fish catches and driving up equipment costs for local fishers.

In the south of Puerto Rico, the coastal town of La Parguera is currently witnessing a historic amount of sargassum on its shores. This has halted most of the boating activity in the area, which is the seaside town’s main tourist draw and economic driver.

All over the Caribbean, from town halls to local group gatherings, the story I hear is always the same: constant headaches, lost work hours, failing health, and a sense that quality of life is silently being stolen. The compounding effects of heatwaves, drought, and marine destruction are exhausting our people, our islands.

Climate change to blame

Climate change makes each El Niño year hotter and more damaging. Higher baseline global temperatures increase the energy and moisture available for extreme weather. Latest projections show that El Niño may push the monthly global average temperature past 2°C of warming for the first time in early 2027. In the Caribbean islands, that will not just be breaking records – it’ll be breaking lives.

Recently, I had the opportunity to share a panel with climate scientists behind what is known as the field of “attribution science” – or the science that compares today’s climate conditions to what the Earth’s climate would be like without human activity, particularly burning fossil fuels. They’re unequivocal: it’s no longer a question of whether extreme weather is caused by climate change, it’s just a question of how much.

    Attribution science recently got a boost from the U.S.’ top scientific advisory body. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recognized that researchers’ methods have advanced considerably in recent years, resulting in better assessments on how much extreme weather can be attributed to human-caused climate change. It noted that attribution findings could be relevant in some types of legal cases, including those seeking damages from oil companies for climate impacts.

    This crisis, which is already taking a heavy toll on our communities’ survival, needs real, urgent, and structural action that goes beyond aid. With similar droughts now gripping parts of Asia and Africa, we’re falling into the familiar narrative of treating the looming humanitarian crisis as if no one was to blame, as if it is being caused solely by a natural phenomenon we can’t control.

    It’s not. The world was already on fire before its regular visitor, El Niño, came. While we need humanitarian action, we need climate action too, in order to permanently put out the flames.

    The post When taps run dry in the Caribbean, it’s not enough to blame El Niño appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?

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    China has released a five-year plan dedicated to addressing climate change.

    The 15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change is the latest in a series to outline in-depth climate and energy targets for the 2026-2030 period.

    These include five-year plans for “building a Beautiful China”, developing a “new-type energy system” and developing renewable energy.

    There are also separate “action plans” for the 2026-2030 period, such as for peaking carbon emissions

    China has pledged to peak its emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.

    The new plan does not include any major new targets, instead consolidating and reaffirming existing policies.

    Nevertheless, it includes significant signals on key policy areas, such as non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases, global climate governance and carbon markets.

    Below, Carbon Brief examines some of the notable elements in the latest five-year plan and what it reveals about China’s policy direction through to 2030.

    What does the climate plan cover?

    The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released the plan in late July, in unison with 18 other government departments. These include the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency, and the National Energy Administration.

    The document covers a range of topics, including CO2 emissions, other greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs), carbon markets, carbon footprints, climate adaptation and international cooperation on climate change.

    For the first time at the five-year plan level, the plan creates a comprehensive target system covering all areas of climate policy, say officials in a MEE Q&A.

    They describe it as “the main policy instrument” for advancing China’s climate action during 2026-2030.

    China rarely issues high-level multi-year policies dedicated to “responding to climate change”. In 2014, the NDRC published a plan on the topic running through to 2020, but this was not linked to a five-year plan period.

    Qin Yan, principal analyst at ClearBlue Markets, tells Carbon Brief that the plan shows that China’s climate governance has reached “an unprecedented strategic level”.

    She adds that the plan creates an “all-encompassing target system” to support China’s Paris Agreement climate pledges for 2030 and 2035.

    In its 2030 pledge, China aimed to peak emissions “before 2030” and reduce carbon intensity – its emissions per unit of GDP – by more than 65% from 2005 levels.

    Last year, president Xi Jinping personally announced China’s 2035 pledge to cut China’s greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, while “striving to do better”.

    The five-year plan marks a new phase in China’s climate policy, according to researchers at CIB Research, an economic research body affiliated with the Industrial Bank, whose largest shareholder is the Fujian provincial government.

    Their analysis adds that the plan represents a broad effort to strengthen China’s climate-governance system, implementation mechanisms and underlying capacity.

    Nevertheless, several headline targets and policies in the document simply reiterate already established plans.

    These include:

    • Cutting carbon intensity by 17% across the five years
    • Reducing carbon intensity per product in industries under China’s carbon market by 3%
    • Substituting fossil fuels with renewables
    • Strengthening climate adaptation
    • Supporting the “free flow” of cleantech

    What does the plan say about non-CO2 GHGs?

    The plan also goes into detail on China’s approach to non-CO2 GHGs. This includes reaffirming a target of an emissions “reduction capacity” from these gases totalling 30m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030, although the baseline is unclear.

    The target previously appeared in the overarching five-year plan, as well as the plan for building a “Beautiful China”.

    The goal refers to emissions reductions, which can be realised through implementing current non-CO2 emissions reduction policies and projects, says Chen Meian, programme director and senior analyst at the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP). 

    She adds that it is “relatively achievable”, with sources including increasing the number of coal-mine methane utilisation projects.

    She points to an MEE explanatory note for a draft methodology under the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme, China’s voluntary carbon-credit market. Chen says the note suggests that projects using ventilation air methane and coal-mine methane with concentrations below 8% alone could deliver around 20MtCO2e of reduction by 2030.

    The note states that, currently, such projects are estimated to be able to “generate annual emission reductions of approximately 4.5MtCO2e”.

    In addition, Chen says, measures targeting industrial nitrous oxide (N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) could help make up the remainder needed to meet the target.

    According to iGDP analysis of biennial reports submitted by China to the UNFCCC, China emitted around 14,000MtCO2e of GHGs in 2021, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).

    Non-CO2 GHGs accounted for around 2,700MtCO2e, or 19%, of the total, the majority of which was methane, as shown in the figure below.

    Methane is China’s main source of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions by gas, MtCO2e. Stacked bar chart from 2005 to 2021 showing total emissions rising to over 2,700 MtCO2e. Methane consistently accounts for the largest share, followed by Nitrous Oxide and F-gases. Source: iGDP analysis of China’s first Biennial Transparency Report and fourth Biennial Update Report - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)
    iGDP analysis of China’s first Biennial Transparency Report and fourth Biennial Update Report.

    China’s plans to curb these super-pollutants in the five-year period include coal-mine methane utilisation projects, end-of-pipe destruction technologies for HFCs and guidance on the use of catalysts to reduce N2O emissions.

    The plan also calls for the recovery and replacement of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) in power equipment.

    For Chen, the plan’s focus on SF6 control is particularly noteworthy. She says the gas is “finally receiving policy attention” and that proactive action is “timely and will help avoid future emissions growth” as China’s power system expands.

    What does the plan say about global climate governance?

    One of the plan’s clearest objectives for international cooperation is for China to play a more active role in global climate governance.

    By 2030, it says China should markedly increase its “influence, guiding power, shaping power and moral appeal” in this area.

    It says China’s climate action could also feed into the Global Governance Initiative, a policy initiative aimed at reforming the global governance system.

    China will also aim to “build a new narrative on climate governance”, it adds.

    Prof Thomas Hale, a professor in public policy at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, writes on LinkedIn that the plan “marks a major rhetorical shift” towards China being increasingly willing to “lead and shape” global climate action.

    Another clear focal point for international cooperation is in carbon markets.

    The plan calls for China to expand the global influence of its carbon market, such as through international rule-setting, cooperation on standards and by hosting the China Carbon Market Conference.

    Qin says China’s more active role in global carbon pricing is already evident in the launch of the open coalition on compliance carbon markets with the EU and Brazil. This coalition is expected to adopt a work plan at the China Carbon Market Conference in September.

    Qin also notes that China “could become the world’s largest [carbon] offset buyer” as its energy transition progresses.

    The country would, therefore, “benefit from helping shape global rules under the Article 6 framework [for carbon trading under the Paris Agreement]”, she adds.

    The post Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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    Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline

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    About a quarter of the countries signed up to the Paris Agreement are still breaching its rules by failing to submit a new national climate plan, 18 months after the February 2025 deadline.

    Forty-five nations had not submitted a plan known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), according to the Paris Agreement Implementation and Compliance Committee’s (PAICC) newly-published report of its 7-10 July 2026 meeting. One, Oman, has published it since the meeting.

    Twelve countries ignored the committee’s repeated attempts to find out why they had not yet produced a climate plan, the report said. They will be invited to the committee’s next meeting, from September 1-4, so it can identify the challenges and constraints they face.

    Members of the committee are divided, as they were at their last meeting, on whether to name those countries publicly and will debate the question again in September.

    The PAICC does not have any power to punish governments, as building these powers into the Paris Agreement was thought to be so controversial that it could have stopped some governments from joining, experts have previously told Climate Home News.

    A key requirement of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement is that governments publish a more ambitious NDC every five years, setting targets to reduce their planet-heating emissions and outlining their policies to adapt to climate change, in order to meet the accord’s goals on limiting global warming and protecting people from its effects.

    The latest set – the third round of plans, with new targets for 2035 – was due in 2025.

    Some medium-sized emitters

    Countries without an updated NDC include Egypt, Vietnam, Argentina and the Phillippines, all of which rank among the world’s 40 largest greenhouse gas emitters. The rest of the countries are smaller, poorer nations, with many in Africa or the Caribbean.

    Some nations have argued that they cannot put together an NDC – which requires a significant amount of work in tracking emissions and consulting on how to curb them across the economy – because of exceptional circumstances. For example, a letter from a Sudanese official to the PAICC committee, seen by Climate Home News, says that the country’s civil war has led to the suspension of its NDC preparation.

      The US and Iran are not signed up to the Paris Agreement, although the US submitted a 2035 NDC under the Biden administration before Donald Trump pulled the US out of the UN climate accords.

      The committee also expressed concern that the UN’s NDC registry continued to label the climate plans of countries that are no longer party to the Paris Agreement as “active”, according to its report. The US submission has since been archived.

      Since the last PAICC meeting in March, ten countries have published NDCs. The committee did not name them but they include India, Algeria, Cameroon and Guyana.

      The post Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline appeared first on Climate Home News.

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