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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
China to play major role in global energy shift
ELECTRIFICATION: As the world moves into the “age of electricity”, China’s per-capita demand for electricity will grow to overtake that of all advanced economies combined by 2030 under current policy settings, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2024. The report said this is due to the country’s rising electrification, pushed forward by adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and other low-carbon technologies, as well as economic growth.
LOW-CARBON POWER: China accounted for 60% of worldwide renewable installations in 2023 and its solar power generation alone will, by 2035, exceed the US’ current total electricity demand, WEO said. A separate IEA report released last week found that China will add 60% of new renewables installations globally between 2024 and 2030. This rapid expansion, according to WEO, will help China lead a global decline in carbon emissions after 2030, with China’s emissions falling to 8% below 2023 levels by 2030 and 24% below by 2035, based on current policy settings. (These figures rise to 17% and 45%, respectively, if China meets its announced pledges.) However, to align with the IEA’s scenario for net-zero emissions by 2050, China’s clean power would need to expand 1.5-times faster than current rates and investment – particularly in grids and energy storage – would need to double.
OIL SLOWS, COAL RISING: China, the world’s largest importer of oil, is currently spurring a “major slowdown” in oil demand growth, largely due to its rapid adoption of EVs, said the report. However, the IEA also said that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest oil consuming country by 2030 and remain the largest oil importer until 2050. Similarly, China is also the largest coal user. It consumed around 55% of the coal used to generate electricity globally and added 73% of the world’s new coal-fired power capacity in 2023, WEO said. (Bloomberg reported that China is also still developing new coal-fired power overseas.) Nevertheless, WEO added that China’s coal consumption for power is likely to peak “in the next few years”.
High-level environmental meeting held
ANNUAL MEETING: The China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED), a high-level environmental advisory body to the Chinese government, held its annual general meeting on 10-12 October, Earth Negotiations Bulletin reported. About 400 people, including global experts, such as WWF director general Kirsten Schuijt, and high-profile Chinese officials attended the meeting, said China Environment News. Following discussions supervised by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, CCICED revised a series of draft recommendations, which included: combining “ambitious goals with pragmatic actions” in China’s “nationally determined contribution” under the Paris Agreement and establishing an absolute emissions reduction goal for 2035; setting a target of 2,400 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind capacity by 2030 and 6,000GW by 2040; and accelerating the expansion of the national carbon market and shifting to auctions for carbon allowances, which are currently given for free.
HEAVY HITTERS: Several influential political figures spoke at the meeting, including executive vice-premier Ding Xuexiang, who reiterated China’s willingness to “work with all parties” on building “a clean and beautiful world” and said it will follow the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” in “global environmental challenges”, according to the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily. Environment minister Huang Runqiu told delegates that, to advance climate goals, China will focus on six key areas: better “prevention” of emissions; more “precise” emissions control; building “norms” and standards in climate policy; “market guidance”; scientific and technological “empowerment”; and “openness and win-win cooperation”, state news agency Xinhua said. Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said that “many of the concerns of developing countries at COP28 have not been adequately addressed”, adding that “developed countries…[need to take] the lead in reducing emissions”, according to news outlet China News. Liu’s predecessor, Xie Zhenhua, said in a speech that, “compared with mitigation, in developing countries, adaptation…needs to be solved more than anything else”, said the Paper, a Shanghai-based newspaper.
Diversifying critical mineral supply chains
GROWING FRUSTRATION: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) confirmed that it is “courting new investors” in order to “diversify ownership” in its mining industry, currently dominated by China, Bloomberg reported. It quotes mines minister Kizito Pakabomba saying the country “is looking to make strategic choices about who runs Congo’s mines”. The outlet added that the DRC has “grown increasingly frustrated by its lack of influence over its mining industry, particularly in cobalt”, a mineral central to the production of some types of EV batteries. The Wall Street Journal said the US is encouraging companies to purchase cobalt producer Chemaf in DRC, after blocking its sale to the Chinese state-backed Norin Mining.
MINERALS ALLIANCE: Meanwhile, the US and India have agreed to “cooperate on strengthening supply chains in India and US for lithium, cobalt and other critical minerals”, the Indian Express reported, adding that the agreement “still fall[s] short of a full critical minerals trade deal” allowing India to access US tax credits for EVs. The newspaper also noted that India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal aimed to “include other countries in the partnership, especially those who are already mineral rich like countries in Africa and South America”. In response to the agreement, an editorial in the state-run newspaper China Daily said the US, “understandably, does not want to put all its eggs in one basket in the face of rising tensions with China” and described a similar minerals deal with Vietnam as “lip service”, adding that “the US helps none but itself”.
HARSH RHETORIC: Meanwhile, the US Department of State’s under secretary for economic growth, energy and the environment Jose Fernandez criticised China for producing too much lithium for global consumption and alleged it was triggering a “predatory” price drop in an “intentional response” to the US’ Inflation Reduction Act, in comments covered by Reuters.
Spotlight
China’s birth policy ‘could raise emissions 20% by 2060’
A study published in Nature Climate Change finds that China’s current population policies – allowing families to have three children – could increase its future carbon emissions.
However, lead author Prof Zhifu Mi, who researches climate change economics at University College London’s (UCL) Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, tells Carbon Brief that this finding is not to imply that China should reverse its demographic policies.
In an interview, Mi says that, in response to the findings, China could consider a “synergistic approach” to both “fertility policies” and “climate action strategies”.
Carbon Brief: What impact does China’s current population size and demographic makeup have on its carbon emissions?
Zhifu Mi: Population size and demographic composition significantly influence a country’s carbon emissions. Population is one of the primary drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. China has long been the most populous nation, contributing to its status as the largest carbon emitter all over the world. [In 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous nation.]
Age structure also plays a role in emissions. The per-capita carbon footprint of younger people (under 30) in China is approximately 1.8 times that of older people (60 and above). This pattern contrasts with developed countries, where older individuals often have higher carbon footprints.
CB: To avoid demographic pressures, China is encouraging families to have three children and its workforce to delay retirement. You found that relaxing limits on family size would make it harder to meet China’s carbon neutrality goal. Could you explain these findings?
ZM: Both relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement would increase carbon emissions via boosting the labour force. The impact of relaxing fertility policies [and allowing families to have more children] is notably greater than delaying retirement. Shifting from a two-child to a three-child policy would result in a roughly 20% increase in China’s total carbon emissions by 2060.
CB: How are the emissions profiles of China’s young people different to its elderly?
ZM: Younger individuals in China have higher per-capita carbon footprints due to age-related income differences. Their higher per-capita carbon footprints are related to clothing, goods and transport, while older Chinese have higher per-capita carbon footprints related to healthcare.
CB: Some previous research, suggesting that having fewer children is one of the best ways for individuals to cut their carbon footprints, has been criticised for ignoring the impact of climate action, which could reduce the per-capita emissions of the next generation. What do you think about the wider debate on population growth and climate change?
ZM: I disagree with the idea that having fewer children is one of the best ways to cut carbon footprints. Beyond climate change mitigation, we have many other Sustainable Development Goals to consider. While reducing population growth can lower carbon footprints to some extent, population also drives socio-economic development.
Our research indicates that relaxing fertility policies would increase China’s household carbon footprint. We present this objective phenomenon with the hope that this impact of fertility policy will be integrated into climate action strategies.
CB: The paper states that your results should not be read to imply that China must reverse its three-child and retirement-delay policies, but that the policies should be synergised with emissions reductions targets. In your view, what steps could the Chinese government take to do so?
ZM: Yes, our result is not to imply that such policies should be avoided to reduce environmental pressure. We recommend a synergistic approach, considering both population policies and climate goals.
First, climate policies should be tailored to the specific demographic structures of different regions in China – promoting greener consumption and sustainable lifestyles among younger people is crucial. Second, addressing income and consumption disparities across age groups can help mitigate the carbon impacts of fertility and retirement policies. Third, when setting climate targets for each province, population size and demographic composition should be key considerations.
CB: Your paper talks about the need to explore what would happen if China misses its 2060 target, which, as China’s NDC notes, is a challenging goal to meet. What do you see as the key hurdles in this effort?
ZM: Achieving carbon neutrality is a significant challenge for China, particularly because the country has only 30 years to reduce its net carbon emissions to zero after peaking. In contrast, developed countries have had much longer timelines. For instance, the EU…[has allowed] for about 70 years to reduce emissions [from its peak to net-zero]. The US, with a peak in 2005, has 45 years to reach net-zero. China’s more compressed timeline, coupled with the higher volume of emissions to be reduced, makes the challenge more daunting.
Furthermore, China’s energy mix, which is dominated by coal and lacks sufficient oil and gas resources, poses another significant hurdle…Finally, China’s regional economic development is uneven. Eastern regions have witnessed rapid economic growth and industrialisation, while central and western regions lag behind. This imbalance…further complicates China’s path to carbon neutrality.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
Watch, read, listen
SUNNY DISPOSITIONS: State broadcaster CCTV’s flagship interview programme Duihua (Dialogue, 对话) aired a discussion of the state of the solar industry with major Chinese solar manufacturers, including Tongwei, LONGi and JingkoSolar.
FIVE-YEAR PLAN: The California-China Climate Institute, a research institute housed at UC Berkeley, issued recommendations for ways Chinese policymakers can take climate goals into account as they prepare for the 15th “five-year plan” (2026-2030).
NDC WATCH: China must avoid setting “conservative near-term climate goals”, an opinion article in Foreign Policy by Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, and Byford Tsang, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argued.
GREEN FINANCE: Yuan Yuan, a climate and energy campaigner at Greenpeace East Asia, wrote in the Shuang Tan newsletter how the asset management industry can improve climate-related risk management and disclosure standards.
51%
The percentage of Chinese citizens who believe that the US and China have “common objectives” on environment and climate change issues, according to a public opinion poll carried out by Tsinghua University on China’s outlook on international security. Respondents also ranked climate change as the 8th most concerning risk from a list of 18 global security challenges.
New science
Can combined wind and solar power meet the increased electricity load on heatwave days in China after the carbon emission peak? A case study in southern Hebei
Journal of Cleaner Production
A new study revealed that wind and solar power generation could meet the increase in electricity consumption in China’s Hebei province on heatwave days from 2039, in part because heatwaves would raise wind and solar power generation as well as power demand. Using data from the south of Hebei province, which boasts the highest combined wind and solar capacity in China, researchers developed load and wind power models and calibrated “a boosting ensemble learning model to simulate solar generation”. Results showed Hebei could “harness” wind and solar energy to address demand but energy storage capacity would be needed to ensure full coverage.
Comparative analysis of embodied carbon in modular and conventional construction methods in Hong Kong
Scientific Reports
Using modular integrated construction, where parts of new buildings are prefabricated elsewhere and brought to be installed on-site, rather than conventional construction methods, reduced embodied carbon in a Covid-19 isolation facility in Hong Kong by 21%, according to a new study. The study used an embodied carbon assessment of the isolation facility. It found that the reduction in embodied carbon was primarily due to “shortened construction timelines, decreased waste generation and optimised material usage”.
Energy transition in China: Is there a role for climate policy uncertainty?
Journal of Environmental Management
New research found that climate policy uncertainty in China “significantly hinders the progress” of China’s energy transition, particularly by “reducing the level of green finance development and hindering the optimisation of [the] energy structure”. The study used data from 277 Chinese cities to assess this dynamic, discovering that in regions with “weak environmental regulations, high fiscal decentralisation and low administrative levels”, uncertainty has a higher impact on energy transitions. It also stated that climate policy uncertainty further limited the “high-quality development” of China’s economy and levels of “green innovation”.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 17 October 2024: China’s electrification to disrupt oil; High-level environment meeting; Aligning China’s population and climate policies appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Aiqun Yu, Christine Shearer and Joe Hittinger work at Global Energy Monitor, a US-based organisation that seeks to provide the worldwide energy transition with transparent data and analysis.
With global oil and gas prices soaring at the start of the Iran war, China quietly broke ground on three major coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemical projects worth roughly $10 billion in two regions with abundant coal resources.
But as a Chinese saying goes, “three feet of ice does not form in a single day”. China’s push to use coal as a substitute for imported oil and gas has been gathering momentum since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, prompting a recalibration of energy security priorities in Beijing and beyond.
The policy raises new concerns, threatening China’s climate goals and growing reputation as a global clean energy leader by creating renewed demand for coal.
A new expansion wave
Over the past three years, China has entered a new cycle of investment in so-called “modern coal chemicals”, differentiated from conventional coal chemicals. Four pathways – coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-olefins, and coal-to-ethylene glycol – account for the bulk of new modern coal-chemical capacity under development.
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According to Global Energy Monitor data, proposed and under-construction coal-to-gas capacity is approaching three times current operating capacity. Together, 34 projects under active consideration represent more than 1 trillion yuan ($150 billion) in planned investment and could add roughly 300 million tonnes of annual coal demand if completed, equivalent to South Africa’s entire coal mining capacity.
Most projects are in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Ningxia, regions with plentiful coal resources and relatively low mining costs. Xinjiang has emerged as the epicentre of the new boom, accounting for more than half of all proposed modern coal chemical projects.
Why the world abandoned coal chemicals
Coal chemicals are often presented as an emerging industry, but the technologies themselves are more than a century old.
Earlier “conventional” coal chemistry was a byproduct of coking, a process run primarily for iron and steel making. “Modern” coal chemistry instead uses gasification to convert coal into synthesis gas, a versatile building block for fuels, plastics, fertilisers and other chemicals that would traditionally be made from oil or gas.
These modern processes were developed in the early 20th century and expanded during periods of wartime fuel shortages. For example, Germany relied heavily on synthetic fuels during the Second World War while South Africa developed similar technologies in the apartheid era to reduce vulnerability to international sanctions.
Once cheap oil and gas became widely available, however, most countries moved away from coal chemicals, which required large amounts of energy, water and capital investment, and generally produced more pollution and carbon emissions than the conventional alternatives.
Today, only a handful of commercial coal gasification facilities operate outside China.
China has already tested this theory once
The current expansion is not China’s first attempt to build a major coal chemical industry.
A previous boom emerged during the 2010s, driven by many of the same arguments: high oil prices, concerns over energy security and expectations that technological improvements would unlock a new era of coal-based industrial growth.
Brazil jostles for rare earths share as US-China rivalry heats up
The outcome was far from successful. Dozens of projects were proposed, but many were delayed, suspended or scrapped before completion, and there were difficulties among those that did get off the ground.
Three of China’s four operating coal-to-gas projects reportedly spent much of the past decade operating at a loss, and several large coal chemical facilities generated only marginal returns despite government support.
Policy support is driving the revival
Backers say technological improvements have made the industry more competitive than it was a decade ago.
Yet coal chemical projects remain highly dependent on oil and gas prices. When international prices rise, coal-derived products can appear competitive. When prices fall, the economics often deteriorate rapidly.
More than changes in technology, government policy has played a pivotal role in the sector’s revival.
Following power shortages in 2021 and the energy market disruptions that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy security became a national priority. Coal production expanded, particularly in western China, boosted by government support.
China’s solar exports reach “gigantic” record in March as energy crisis bites
A key policy change in 2022 exempted coal used as industrial feedstock from certain energy consumption controls, easing regulatory pressure on coal chemical projects.
The impact of such measures highlights the degree to which coal chemicals depend on expansive and favourable policy treatment to remain viable.
At the same time, the current expansion is creating new demand for an industry confronting structural decline as China races to renewables in electricity generation.
The cost to China’s climate leadership
Converting coal into fuels and petrochemical products also releases substantially more carbon dioxide than conventional oil- and gas-based alternatives, which themselves are a major source of emissions.
Proponents argue that coupling production with green hydrogen and carbon capture could resolve the emissions problem, but the arithmetic doesn’t support this.
Sinopec’s flagship Dalu coal-to-olefins plant, paired with a 10,000 tonne-per-year green hydrogen demonstration, displaces less than 2% of the plant’s annual coal use. Replicating this across the proposed buildout would consume enormous quantities of clean energy just to partially decarbonise an inherently dirty process.
China could instead leverage that same industrial capacity and policy support to lead the development of cleaner chemical pathways, such as green ammonia for fertiliser, bio-based and CO2-derived feedstocks for plastics, and e-fuels or biofuels where liquid fuels are still needed.
Rather than locking in another generation of coal-dependent infrastructure, China should learn from the lessons of the past and seek a cleaner and more viable industrial future.
The post China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past appeared first on Climate Home News.
China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past
Welcome to the Project Cosmos homepage.
The project was launched by Carbon Brief in June 2026 following an 18-month research and development effort.
The aim: to build the world’s largest database of climate change research.
Containing more than 1.8 million unique publications linked by 40 million citation relationships, the Cosmos database represents the most complete and expansive mapping of human knowledge on climate change ever assembled.
The articles and visuals below will guide you through how the Cosmos database was built, as well as all the subsequent analysis, including the Cosmos 500 rankings of most cited authors, publications and institutions.
The post Project Cosmos appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/project-cosmos/
This is the vast “cosmos” of academic literature and evidence that underpins humanity’s knowledge of climate change.
Every “star” – all 1.8m of them – represents one of the studies inside Carbon Brief’s Cosmos database.
The coloured “nebulae” and “galaxies” within this cosmos illustrate where clusters of studies share similar citations and, hence, areas of common academic focus.
The post Mapped: Inside Carbon Brief’s Cosmos database of 1.8 million climate studies appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-inside-carbon-briefs-cosmos-database-of-1-8-million-climate-studies/
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