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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
New export controls
‘SWEEPING’ CURBS: The Chinese government issued “sweeping export controls on rare earths and related technologies”, the Financial Times reported, with the set of new rules tightening restrictions on exports of rare earths, permanent magnets and batteries and battery components, as well as related processing technologies. Manufacturers will need licences to export any of these products that contain “even trace amounts” of China-sourced materials, it added. The move “underscores how rare earths – vital to high-performance magnets, electric vehicles [EVs], wind turbines and precision weaponry – have become a powerful geopolitical tool”, finance news outlet Caixin reported.
BATTERY BLOCKAGES?: The restrictions on batteries with an energy density higher than 300 watt-hours per kilogram, as well as a variety of battery components, “show China is keen to protect its innovations” and complicate efforts to diversify supply chains, Bloomberg reported. Caixin cited multiple analysts saying the battery threshold “primarily targets high-end nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries used in aviation and defense, rather than lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries common in mass-market EVs”, noting that the “controls focus on ‘next-generation’ batteries [such as solid-state batteries]”. But Cory Combs, associate director at consultancy Trivium China, told Carbon Brief that the controls are cause for “concern”, as they “target nearly all the key components, production tools and associated tech” that newer consumer electronics, including EVs, are expected to be using. There are “open questions” on how this could affect Chinese battery manufacturers’ overseas investments and partnerships, he said, although he expected “Beijing will continue to strongly encourage battery exports and overseas investments in general”.
OPEN QUESTIONS: The restrictions give China leverage in the US-China trade dispute “ahead of a scheduled face-to-face meeting” between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the end of October, Reuters said. In response to the restrictions, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent “accused China of trying to hurt the world’s economy”, the Financial Times reported, adding that in contrast, “China has blamed Washington for the escalation”. Economic news outlet Jiemian said that Europe may also be affected by the curbs, as its EV industry has “high demand for premium rare earth grades” – although it added that “specific impacts” may only become visible by early 2026. Combs told Carbon Brief that he does not think China has a “strategic interest in cutting off EU or Asian companies” from clean-energy technologies, given that it already has a competitive advantage in their manufacture. He added that the move could lead to “frictions and delays”, but “shouldn’t affect the broader EV or [wind] turbine industries too much”.
IEA revised China renewables outlook down
REFORM REVISIONS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its outlook for China’s wind and solar buildout down by about 5% in its Renewables 2025 report, which the agency attributed to the country’s “shift from fixed tariffs [for wind and solar power] to competitive auctions”, Reuters said. Energy news outlet International Energy Net also covered the report, which “notes that…the financial sustainability of [wind and solar] manufacturers remains a major concern”.
EARLY ACHIEVEMENT: Jeremy Wallace, professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote on LinkedIn that, despite the 5% revision, the IEA’s “main case estimate [for China] has about 2,100 gigawatts (GW) of renewables added from 2026-2030”, which would put the country “way ahead” of its new target for 3,600GW of wind and solar by 2035. Indeed, the IEA report said that China “continues to account for nearly 60% of global renewable capacity growth and is on track to reach [its 2035 target for renewable energy] five years ahead of schedule”.
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RECORD EXPORTS: Meanwhile, thinktank Ember released a report finding that China’s exports of clean-energy technology “hit a record in August, with $20bn in products shipped globally”, Bloomberg reported. Al Jazeera quoted the report saying: “Within China there is a realisation that the old development paradigm centred on fossil fuels has run its course and is not fit for 21st century realities.” State broadcaster CGTN said the findings “confirm China’s role as the primary driver of the transition” towards clean energy.
China issued draft expanding renewable quotas
BEYOND POWER: Energy news outlet BJX News reported that the Chinese government has published new draft rules to expand China’s renewable portfolio standard (RPS) – provincial quotas for consuming renewable electricity – to also cover energy demand outside the power sector. It said the draft rules divide the RPS targets into two categories: minimum renewable electricity consumption targets, covering “all types of renewable power generation”; and minimum non-electricity consumption targets, including “renewable energy applications such as heating and cooling, production of ‘green’ hydrogen, ammonia and alcohol, as well as biofuels”. The move comes as China’s RPS grows from covering power and aluminium to also include the cement, polysilicon and iron and steel sectors, as well as certain types of data centres.
FINANCE PLANS: China also plans to refine how it invests in “energy conservation and carbon reduction”, BJX News said, to better integrate “hard investments” with “soft infrastructure development”. Another BJX News report elaborated that supported projects under this programme include low-carbon projects in sectors such as power, steel, chemicals and building materials. It added that “clean coal” and coal-chemical projects, clean-energy alternatives for “coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns” and “geothermal and biomass” clean heating solutions, would also receive support.
Carbon prices hit a two-year low
CREDIT OVERSUPPLY: Carbon prices in China’s national carbon market reached the “lowest level in more than two years as the nation’s carryover rules triggered a sell-off”, with prices hitting a low of 58.8 yuan ($8.25), according to Bloomberg. It added that “prices are down almost 40% since the start of the year, weighed by a persistent oversupply and lagging demand”.
EV PRESSURES: Meanwhile, EV sales in China “hit an all-time high” in September, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), with a rush in purchases ahead of the expiration of EV tax breaks and consumer subsidies. A total of 826,000 EVs were sold last month, it said, up 29% from the previous year and breaking the previous record set in December 2024. State news agency Xinhua reported that sales of “new-energy vehicles”, a category including EVs, rose 35% year-on-year to 11m from January to September 2025. Bloomberg quoted CPCA secretary general Cui Dongshu saying that car dealerships urgently need financial assistance as overcapacity and intense competition pushes them to “operat[e] at cash flow negative”. Meanwhile, China plans to double EV charging capacity by 2027, “building 28m facilities nationwide”, another SCMP article said.
OVERCAPACITY ORDERS: Finally, the government has announced new measures on governing “disorderly price competition”, BJX News reported, including guiding industry associations to suggest reference costs to help “operators to set reasonable prices” and penalising companies it identifies as repeatedly violating orders. Reuters said that a state-run financial news outlet “reported…relevant authorities may release a notice on strengthening the regulation and control of solar production capacity”, adding that the article in question “did not contain further details”.
Spotlight
Only half of Chinese provinces finalise key ‘Document 136’ renewable rules
Only half of China’s provinces have finalised new rules for pricing wind and solar power, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Local governments are required to have published final plans to reform the way wind and solar power is priced in their jurisdiction before the end of this year, following the release of “Document 136” (136号文).
Carbon Brief examines China’s progress on developing the new rules. The full article, including an interactive tracker of which provinces have released their plans, is available on Carbon Brief’s website.
Central direction, local rules
In February this year, China’s central government issued a notice on “deepening market-based reform of feed-in tariffs for new energy”, also known as “Document 136”.
The document called on local governments to develop plans for new pricing mechanisms for wind and solar power. A key feature of this will be the “sustainable new-energy pricing mechanism” (新能源可持续发展价格结算机制), in which they only offer a fixed price to a set amount of new wind and solar capacity each year.
Any additional wind and solar projects would need to find buyers for their electricity on the open market.
The move is part of wider efforts to shift China’s giant electricity system towards more market-based operation.
When the policy was first released, analysts expected the rules and subsequent low auction prices to have a chilling effect on wind and solar in the short term.
But some believe that “Document 136” may strengthen China’s clean-energy industries in the long term, by forcing companies to become more innovative and competitive.
New territory
So far, Carbon Brief finds, only 18 provinces have issued finalised plans. Collectively, these provinces account for 61% of China’s energy-related emissions.
Another 10, representing 31% of emissions, have published draft plans, while Jiangsu, Tianjin and Tibet – the final 8% – have yet to publish anything.
A few provinces published finalised rules in early June, including renewable-power heavyweights Shandong and Inner Mongolia.
In a nationwide conference call at the end of August, National Energy Administration officials urged provinces to “promptly promote” concrete plans.
Eleven provinces have published finalised rules since then, with a further eight publishing draft rules, according to Carbon Brief calculations.
The delay can be attributed to the fact that local policymakers are trying to establish a completely new system of pricing power from scratch, said David Fishman, principal at energy consultancy the Lantau Group.
He told Carbon Brief that “fairly meaningful differences” can be found between the final version and earlier drafts for some provinces, indicating a high level of debate.
In September, Shandong province became the first to hold auctions for solar and wind power under the new rules.
While prices secured by the wind industry are seen as high enough to be relatively acceptable to project developers, the solar price is below the level thought to be needed to finance such developments. As such, it could “discourage” further solar investment in the province, Reuters reported.
Future additions
Analysts disagree about what impact the “Document 136” policy will have on the pace of China’s clean-energy additions.
Dr Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst for Asia at thinktank Ember, told Carbon Brief that he does not see the pricing reforms as a “signal of a structural slowdown in clean capacity [additions]”.
But Fishman noted that the pricing reforms could make it “challenging” for China to hit Xi’s new 2035 target.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) shaved 5% – or 129 gigawatts (GW) – off its outlook for China’s wind and solar growth by 2030, which it attributed to the pricing reforms.
Nevertheless, it added, China is still projected to add “nearly 2,660GW” of new renewable capacity between 2025 and 2030, reaching its 2035 wind and solar target “five years ahead of schedule”.
Watch, read, listen
AFRICAN ENERGY: The China Global South Project hosted a discussion on China’s role in shaping Africa’s energy landscape and how African governments are responding.
GENDER LENS: The Climate Watch podcast spoke with Wang Binbin, associate research professor at Peking University’s Institute for Carbon Neutrality, on intersections between climate action and gender in China.
LEADING TOGETHER?: Economic policy thinktank Bruegel published an analysis arguing that broader EU-China tensions “should not be allowed to derail joint work to cut emissions”.
ARCTIC SHIPPING: CNN examined how melting polar sea ice is “altering the map” in a way that could bring “big economic and geopolitical rewards” for China’s plans to establish shipping routes through the Arctic.
218 billion yuan
Or $30.5bn, the value of economic losses caused by “natural disasters” in the first three quarters of 2025, Jiemian reported, in coverage of a press conference by the Ministry of Emergency Management (MEM). These disasters, which included “intense” rainfall, heat and typhoons, caused 742 people to be reported dead or missing, it added. Climate change was not mentioned during the press conference.
New science
Future warming exacerbates heatwave-ozone compound extremes in China
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Human exposure due to “heatwave-ozone compound events” will double across by the middle of the century under “high-emissions scenario”, causing an additional 61,600 deaths nationwide, according to new research. The authors used climate models to estimate excess deaths due to heatwave-ozone compound extremes from climate change under a range of future emissions scenarios. They projected that the number of ozone pollution events in China will grow by 58% by the middle of the century, “half of which are also heatwave days”.
Nature Communications
A new study on electric vehicle charging stations found that, without policy regulation, “large-scale deployment of ultra-fast charging stations with energy storage could raise peak loads by over 70-85% by 2030 and multiply them by up to 7.5 times by 2050”. The authors used real-world charging data from a number of Chinese cities to develop simulations of various scenarios. They found that “deploying 2,000 ultra-fast charging stations in a city may increase the peak-to-valley differences of the public charging load by up to 32% daily relative to baseline cases”.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 16 October 2025: New export controls; IEA China projections; Provincial ‘Doc 136’ progress appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Carbon Brief’s editorial team is supported by an international group of academics, each specialising in various areas of climate science, biodiversity, energy and policy.
As contributing editors, they help to keep Carbon Brief up-to-date with the latest scientific and policy developments, as well as providing advice, when required, on matters of scientific accuracy.
The contributing editors, who will serve a term of two years in the role, are not paid by Carbon Brief and do not endorse its content.
Prof Bethan Davies (@iceybethan.bsky.social)
Prof Bethan Davies is a professor of glaciology at Newcastle University. She specialises in the response of glaciers and ice sheets to climate change, with recent work focusing on the
British-Irish Ice Sheet, Patagonia, Antarctica, the Andes, Alaska, Svalbard and Austria. She is currently editor for the journal Quaternary Science Reviews, chair of the UK Arctic-Antarctic Partnership and co-chair of Diversity in Polar Science Initiative. She is a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change’s (IPCC) upcoming IPCC seventh assessment report (AR7). She also established the website AntarcticGlaciers.org.
Dr Joanna Depledge (Joanna Depledge)
Dr Joanna Depledge is a fellow at the Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (CEENRG) at the University of Cambridge. She has been following climate change and wider environmental negotiations for more than 25 years, including as a staff member at the secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a reporter for the Earth Negotiations Bulletin. Joanna has been on the editorial team of the journal Climate Policy since 2014. She is also a founding member of Cambridge Zero, a member of the research network Climate Strategies, and sat on the steering committee of the production gap report for 2020 and 2021.
Dr Gabriela Di Giulio
Dr Gabriela Di Giulio is an associate professor at the University of São Paulo. She holds a BA in journalism, an MSc in science and technology policy and a PhD in environment and society from the University of Campinas. Her research explores the interactions between environment, society and science–policy dynamics, with a particular focus on how environmental crises affect socio-cultural contexts. Her current work addresses climate change and adaptation, the governance and communication of risks and uncertainties, and pathways toward sustainability transitions.
Prof Erich Fischer (@erichfischer.bsky.social)
Prof Erich Fischer is climate scientist at ETH Zurich. His research interests include changes in weather and climate extremes, detection and attribution, climate variability, constraining uncertainties in global-to-regional model projections, and the human impacts of warming. He is a lead author on both the IPCC sixth and seventh assessment report. He is co-chair of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC). He is an associate editor on the journal Science Advances and a co-editor of Weather and Climate Dynamics.
Prof Sabine Fuss
Prof Sabine Fuss is a working group leader and head of research department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). She holds a professorship in sustainable resource management and global change at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Her expertise is in sustainable development, tropical rainforest conservation and climate change mitigation, with a particular focus on carbon dioxide removal. She was a lead author on the IPCC’s special report on 1.5C and was appointed to the European Academy of Sciences in 2021. She received her PhD in international economics from Maastricht University in 2008.
Dr Kirsten Mayer (@kirstenjmayer.bsky.social)
Dr Kirsten Mayer is a scientist at the US National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR). Her research uses machine learning to explore sources of predictability within the Earth System, particularly focused on subseasonal and longer timescales. She is also an active member of the WCRP ESMO Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP). She has a PhD in atmospheric sciences from Colorado State University.
Dr Albert Salamanca
Dr Albert M Salamanca heads the secretariat of the Adaptation Research Alliance (ARA) and is a senior research fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Asia centre. His work focuses on climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development, with particular attention to strengthening the research–policy interface in south-east Asia. He holds a PhD in geography from Durham University.
Dr Christopher Trisos (Christopher Trisos)
Dr Christopher Trisos is the director of the Climate Risk Lab and of the African Synthesis Centre for Climate Change, Environment and Development (ASCEND) at University of Cape Town. He holds the AXA research chair in African climate risk at the African Climate and Development Initiative. His work focuses on understanding risks from climate change to enable communities to adapt for a better future, with a particular focus on Africa and the global south. He has served as a coordinating lead author for the IPCC, a negotiator at the UNFCCC, and has advised several international organisations and governments on climate change risks and adaptation.
Carbon Brief is grateful for the support of its earlier cohort of contributing editors:
Second cohort: Dr Céline Guivarch; Prof Frank Jotzo; Dr Zachary Labe; Dr David Lapola; Dr Friederike Otto; Prof Lisa Schipper; Dr Chandni Singh; and Dr Portia Adade Williams.
First cohort: Prof Richard Allan; Prof Mark Brandon; Prof Piers Forster; Prof Gabriele Hegerl; Prof Simon Lewis; Prof Tim Osborn; Prof Camille Parmesan; and Prof Peter Stott.
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Introducing Carbon Brief’s 2026 cohort of contributing editors
In January, China announced an end to export subsidies for solar panels and a phased end to value-added tax rebates on batteries. The cuts, which took effect on April 1, have raised concerns for renewable energy markets globally, including African countries, which rely heavily on Chinese imports.
With solar increasingly becoming a reliable power source across the African continent, it has seen a boom in imports of related technology, mostly from China. The first decisive evidence of a solar take-off in Africa was recorded in 2025 when imports of solar panels from China to Africa rose sharply over 12 months, adding 60% more potential electricity generation capacity than in the previous year.
Energy think-tank Ember found that the growth was led by countries that have suffered widespread power cuts like South Africa, Nigeria and Zambia, where solar panels are increasingly appealing to businesses and households seeking reliable power without having to use expensive fossil fuel generators.
But experts fear this explosive growth could be affected by the cut in tax rebates for clean technology from China – and because of the Iran war, the prices of these technologies could rise even higher, making the transition unaffordable for many Africans.
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Climate Home News spoke to Karl Boyce, Chief Executive Officer of ARC Power, a renewable energy developer that works in Africa, about what these subsidy cuts could mean for the continent, how it can prepare for price and demand shocks, and what must be done to bridge Africa’s energy access gap.
Q: How will the recent export subsidy cuts by China affect the growth of clean energy usage in Africa where it’s increasingly becoming a reliable source of power for communities?
A: China’s removal of the export subsidy will certainly impact this sector in Africa, but probably not as extensively as we might first think. Solar pricing has dropped significantly in recent years, so this might just level it out to a more realistic and stable price in the longer term.
A product shortage in the near term could be a possibility, as rushed procurement might occur to secure products ahead of the next phased rebate drop in 2027. In parallel, we have already seen shipping pricing increasing from some of our recent orders, due to the war in the Middle East.
Regarding battery storage, various potential manufacturing opportunities are being explored, but these are still nascent, despite Africa having significant amounts of the critical minerals needed for battery manufacturing.
African leaders seek investments in ailing grid infrastructure to achieve energy goals
Q: About 600 million people still lack access to electricity in Africa. What are some of the barriers to bridging this gap?
A: One reason is a lack of access to funding at scale across the sector. Another is that regulations in some African countries are still evolving and changing, which makes the process slow.
With mini-grids, it’s quite challenging because most of the connections in a community will be households who are probably paying [about] $3 a month for their power, which makes it really difficult for developers or investors to actually get their money back. It might take 10 years.
A lot of funding has gone into these solar home systems, which is great just to give people lights for the first time. But we’ve seen with all the communities where we’re working that people want more than that. They want to be able to set up their business, and they don’t just want to be able to charge their phone and have a few lights – they actually want the ability to have appliances and things like that.
I think the risk appetite for investments in solar mini-grids seems to be changing, hopefully for the better. Also we seem to be seeing more and more investors focusing on impact as well, which is so nice and so positive to see.
Q: We’re less than four years away from the deadline for the UN’s universal energy access target and the gap is still far from being bridged in Africa. Can the continent meet the 2030 target and how are initiatives like Mission 300 helping?
A: Last year at an event in Kenya, the secretary-general of Sustainable Energy for All, Damilola Ogunbiyi, was talking about the fact that the last few years were the first time energy access was actually reduced because it hasn’t kept up with population growth.
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But, while I would confidently say that we’re not going to achieve the Mission 300 target of connecting 300 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa to electricity by 2030, I think they’ll go a long way towards it.
Even though there are only about three-and-a-half years left, with the funding that’s being focused on it, I think the World Bank seems to have made it kind of a priority now [through Mission 300]. I am hoping that there will be a big step towards it. Even if they achieve half of their target, that would be such a significant step forward.
To go further towards achieving the 2030 target, there has to be a really big push on improving regulations in the countries so they become less bureaucratic. It just speeds up the process, because that’s the thing we have seen firsthand, where even if you have funding and you have the ability to do it, things are still being slowed down by regulations.
It’s hard because you’ve got so many different countries with totally different kinds of business environments and business cultures, different regulations. This is the challenge. Obviously there’s not going to be one thing that just fixes everything across the continent.
Also, I think that the approach to funding definitely has to change. We need more concessional funding to support other funding to come in, to de-risk it slightly. Access to capital has been one of the biggest barriers. And it always frustrates me, because they always say there’s so much capital out there, but not enough good projects. But when you speak to any developer, they’re always saying the same thing: it’s just trying to access capital.
Q: ARC Power operates a model called FUSE and, with support from the World Bank under the Mission 300 initiative, you are helping fund energy access in some African countries. How are models like yours helping to move the needle in areas that lack access?
A: We were building mini-grids in Rwanda and the government changed their strategy and decided they wanted everyone connected to the national electricity grid, which is obviously very ambitious. But they basically said, we don’t want any more mini-grids in Rwanda.
Some other developers left and pulled out of the market – and it forced us to rethink how we work, and this is where we developed the FUSE model. It’s a public-private collaboration with the utility company and the government, but we’re bringing in private investment to build out their energy infrastructure.
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So we’ll sign a FUSE agreement with the utility company. We will then finance, design and construct grid expansion, so this is still first-time energy access, it can still be real rural areas, but we will basically build out an extension to the national grid. We put in solar, we’ll see what’s connected and how to connect everyone.
Our strapline as a company is “to power” and we are very clear with the utility companies and governments that when we go into an area we want to connect everyone. We’ll connect everyone and then once it’s all constructed and built, and the utility company has ensured it’s to their standards and they sign off, then they pay us over, say, 10 years.
What this is allowing us to do is really accelerate energy access. So, for each dollar invested, we can probably do five times as many connections as we would have been able to do if we were building just a mini-grid, just because we get our capital back quicker.
It’s also good for households because one of the challenges you have is often that you might have a utility company and a mini-grid developer almost competing for a site.
The other thing is the tariffs. You have to have this kind of cost-reflective tariff as a mini-grid operator to get your money back, which means it could be five times the price of the national grid tariff. In Rwanda, we saw houses connected to the national grid probably 500 metres away from a house that’s connected to a mini-grid and the house connected to the mini-grid is paying five times the price.
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Q: Which would serve Africa better – is it mini-grids, utility-scale renewables that can be fed into the grid, or smaller-scale rooftop installations that serve households?
A: In Rwanda, the FUSE model definitely works. Because it’s a small country, nowhere is more than probably a few kilometres from the grid. In some of the larger countries like Mozambique – which is a great example where we’re operating – I think there will always be a requirement for mini-grids, but they complement each other.
In places where you’ve got the national grid infrastructure and it’s growing slowly, we would go to the utility company and say: “You obviously have your plan of where you would like to expand the grid, and all of these tens of thousands of houses that you’d like to connect – let us do it, and we will bring in funding from the private sector”, and then it makes it much more affordable and we can accelerate it.
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West Africa is absolutely on our radar, it’s where we will be definitely targeting. At the moment we are in Rwanda, Mozambique and Zambia, we’re targeting another eight countries in East and Southern Africa in the next six months, and then our plan is to go and start pitching to West African countries.
The World Bank and its International Finance Corporation arm have clearly said to us that they’ve seen the FUSE model can be one of the key solutions in this Mission 300 because it’s so scalable.
This interview was shortened and edited for clarity.
The post Q&A: Will subsidy cuts for Chinese clean-tech exports hurt Africa’s solar boom? appeared first on Climate Home News.
Q&A: Will subsidy cuts for Chinese clean-tech exports hurt Africa’s solar boom?
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