Countries’ climate plans would cut global emissions only half as much by 2035 as the UN projected a year ago, its annual assessment showed, after the US exit from the Paris Agreement and weaker new pledges worsened the outlook.

Taking into account the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of 154 countries, which cover about 71% of global emissions, and current policies in the rest of the world, global emissions would fall to about 6% below 2019 levels by 2035. Last year’s update, based on 113 countries, put the figure at 12%.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emissions need to go down by 60% over the same period to limit global warming to 1.5C – a threshold that is now inevitably going to be breached, at least temporarily.

The latest NDCs put the world on course for between 2.1C and 3.2C of warming by the end of the century, depending on what countries do beyond 2035. That is slightly higher than the 1.9C–3.0C range that the UN climate body estimated in last year’s update, published during COP30.

US exit worsens picture

A major factor is the US, the world’s second-largest emitter. Last year’s UN assessment included the pledge to cut emissions by between 61% and 66% by 2035, made under the administration of former President Joe Biden.

But, since the US has officially left the Paris Agreement, its NDC has been excluded from the tally and its emissions projections have now been derived from current policies, which point to far higher levels of pollution.

US emissions grew significantly last year as a result of growing electricity demand and the policies of President Donald Trump’s administration, which has rolled back support for clean energy and backed the burning of fossil fuels.

Weak new NDCs

Another reason for weaker emission reduction projections is that the approximately 40 new NDCs submitted since last year’s update have been less ambitious than the earlier UN modelling had hoped for.

India, the world’s third-largest emitter, submitted its NDC in April. Its plan would let emissions climb to 6.3 billion tonnes by 2035, almost 64% above 2023 levels, according to analysis by Climate Action Tracker (CAT). Its targets are weaker than India’s current policies and it could meet them as early as 2030.

Saudi Arabia’s plan, submitted at the end of last year, sets no 2035 target, but has only a 2040 goal to reduce, avoid or remove 335 million tonnes a year against an undisclosed baseline. CAT rates it “critically insufficient”, estimating 2035 emissions at between 13% below and 18% above 2019 levels.

About 30 countries, including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina, have still not produced an updated NDC, which all governments should have submitted more than a year and a half ago.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell said this year’s assessment report demonstrates again that collective progress remains insufficient, that global transitions are very uneven and that many countries face substantial barriers to delivering their targets and pledges.

He added that COP31 in Türkiye can help address some of the key gaps highlighted in this year’s reports, through ambitious outcomes on emission-cutting efforts, adaptation, climate finance and just transitions, as well as presidency-led initiatives on electrification, curbing methane emissions and progressing towards zero waste.

The post National climate plans now promise half the emission cuts expected by UN appeared first on Climate Home News.

National climate plans now promise half the emission cuts expected by UN

PERTH, Tuesday 27 October 2026 — In response to WA Premier Roger Cook’s announcement of a doubled renewable energy target for WA’s main energy system, reported today, the following comments can be attributed to WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, Geoff Bice:

“A Western Australian renewable energy target of 75% by 2030-31 is a welcome step in the right direction following sustained calls from across the WA community including unions, industry and advocacy groups.

“This common sense policy is a vital roadmap for WA’s shift to affordable and reliable solar and wind backed by batteries, and gives certainty to business and investors in a volatile global environment.

“Clear policy on renewable energy for WA’s main electricity grid will allow the phase out of polluting coal-fired power from the system and begin to remedy our reliance on expensive and polluting gas.

“This commitment is a positive first step for WA’s clean energy future, but the Cook Government must also address the state’s rising climate pollution driven by the gas industry and industrial processing.

“A natural step towards tackling rising emissions is rejecting any new fossil fuel projects, including Woodside’s proposal to drill for gas at Scott Reef.

“Expert advice and analysis compiled by Greenpeace and Springmount Advisory clearly lays out a viable pathway for WA to follow a staged transition away from fossil fuels and unlock almost $1 trillion of economic value by 2060 by replacing gas exports with green exports.

“The renewable energy target is a strong start — it must now be paired with emissions reduction targets to ensure climate pollution from WA starts falling urgently, and a plan for WA to become a renewable energy powerhouse must be prioritised.”

-ENDS-

Media contact

Emma Sangalli at emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465

‘A strong start’: WA’s transition to renewable energy powerhouse aided by Premier’s announcement

SYDNEY/PERTH, Tuesday 27 October 2026 — In response to Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority (WA EPA) documents about Woodside’s plans to drill for gas at Scott Reef, as reported today, the following comments can be attributed to Glenn Walker, Head of Nature at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:

“These WA EPA documents show the depth of concern echoed by multiple regulators about Woodside’s plans to drill for oil and gas at Scott Reef, a proposal that flouts legislated nature protection principles.

“The WA EPA appears to have informed Woodside that the Browse project was bound for rejection based on an extensive review process and the opinion of multiple state government departments and independent experts.

“Greenpeace analyses have confirmed this year that Woodside’s gas drilling plans at Scott Reef still risk destroying vulnerable green turtle homes, further endangering pygmy blue whales with atomic bomb-level seismic blasting noise, and unleashing the worst oil spill in Australian history.

“The federal environment department raised similar red flags about oil spill risk from Woodside’s Scott Reef drilling plans in 2025 and 2026 before handing the project’s assessment over to the National Environmental Protection Authority.

“Woodside’s suggested ‘fixes’ in response to grave concerns for the wellbeing of Scott Reef and threatened species have been unilaterally criticised by independent experts for lacking in scientific basis and adequate detail.

“It would be a major backflip for both the WA EPA and the National EPA to now recommend approving this project. It is now critical that these regulators maintain their independence from corporate and political influence and reject this destructive project once and for all.”

-ENDS-

Notes to editor
Greenpeace Technical assessments of Woodside’s Browse Pygmy Blue Whale Management Plan, the Turtle Management Plan, and an analysis of Woodside’s Browse Oil Spill Modelling and Risk Mitigation Plan

High res images and footage of Scott Reef can be found here

Media contact:

Emma Sangalli at emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465

WA EPA warned Woodside of ‘serious, significant and irreversible’ harms to Scott Reef from gas plans, new documents reveal