Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
China’s CO2 emissions down
STRUCTURAL DECLINE: China’s clean power generation growth has, for the “first time”, been the driver of a fall in the nation’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions levels, new analysis for Carbon Brief found. CO2 emissions were down 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 and have fallen 1% over the last 12 months, it added, driven by decreasing power sector emissions – all despite rapid electricity demand growth. This could mark a “potentially significant turning point” in China’s emissions trajectory, the analysis said.
BOOMING INDUSTRIES: China’s clean-energy sectors have been “developing rapidly”, China’s tax bureau said, with the sectors’ sales revenue growing 13.6% year-on-year – “11.5 percentage points higher than the national average”, according to industry news outlet China Energy News. Analysis by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies noted “production of the ‘three new’ industries was strong” in the first quarter of 2025. More than 3m workers were employed in the “ecological and environmental protection sector” in China in 2024, Chinese financial news outlet Yicai said. Meanwhile, Chinese finance news outlet Caixin reported on Shandong and Guangdong becoming the first two provinces in China to issue “market-based pricing rules for wind and solar power”, in a policy push that is expected to create short-term uncertainty for clean-energy industries.
COAL ASSETS: China’s fossil fuel sector emitted “nearly 25m tonnes of methane” in 2024 – the vast majority of which came from coal mines, including abandoned mines, a new report by the International Energy Agency said. It added that fossil-fuel methane emissions in China are set to fall by nearly 15% by 2030 and by around 30% by 2035. Elsewhere, carbon offsetting company Verra has developed a new methodology that could “channel more private capital toward the early phase out of coal-fired power plants” in Asia, Bloomberg said. However, Yan Qin, principal analyst at ClearBlue Markets, told Carbon Brief that Chinese stakeholders are “unlikely” to use the credits as they are not recognised in China’s voluntary carbon market. The state-run newspaper China Daily reported that China developed a “deep-sea vault” for greenhouse gases in the South China Sea, designed to store 1.5m tonnes of CO2 annually.
Drought hit China’s breadbasket
DROUGHT: Severe drought has hit several provinces across China, including Henan, Jiangsu and Shaanxi, with high temperatures and low rainfall “affecting local farming and water resources”, Yicai reported. Bloomberg noted that the “hot and dry weather is threatening wheat production, potentially disrupting output”. One trading firm has trimmed its forecast of China’s wheat production for 2025, Reuters reported. Upcoming summer monsoonal rains, known as meiyu (梅雨), “could help ease concerns over crop development”, Bloomberg said, although it added that global warming appeared to be driving “wild swings” in rainfall patterns during the season.
PESTS: A new study from Peking University, covered by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP), found that migratory pests from southeast Asia are “partially driving rice yield losses in southern China”. The researchers added that “continued global warming” will likely increase how often issues with crop pests arise, “posing a major obstacle to stabilising food production”. China has released a plan for disaster prevention during 2025’s flood season in order to ensure a “bumper harvest”, which includes measures to prevent damage from floods, drought, heat, typhoons and pests, the state-run newspaper China Daily said.
POLLEN: Meanwhile, Beijing’s forestation drive has led to a rise in cases of hay fever, Bloomberg reported, noting that trees commonly used in the programme, such as “willows and poplar trees”, have high pollen output. It added that, according to environmental experts, China “didn’t have a better choice of plants when it started the forestation campaign” – quoting one saying that the country’s goal was to “get green first, and then to consider other things”.
Global south policymakers in Beijing
RENEWABLES TO AFRICA: New research by UK-based thinktank ODI Global has found that solar and wind power projects accounted for 59% of China’s energy investments in Africa in 2024, SCMP said. South African policymakers travelled to China to discuss “large-scale renewable energy”, “clean coal” and “grid management” with Chinese counterparts and industry representatives, according to the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily. Elsewhere, Nigeria “recently floated, and then quickly walked back, a proposed ban on imported solar panels” as the country tries to develop its own local solar industry, the China Global South Project reported.
-
Sign up to Carbon Brief’s free “China Briefing” email newsletter. All you need to know about the latest developments relating to China and climate change. Sent to your inbox every Thursday.
MONEY TO CELAC: Meanwhile, representatives of Latin American and Caribbean countries travelled to Beijing for a forum hosted by China, in which President Xi Jinping pledged to provide “66bn yuan ($9bn) in credit” and expand cooperation in “clean energy” with the region, SCMP reported. The “Beijing declaration” issued after the forum emphasised the need for “all parties to consider acceding to international instruments on climate change…and avoiding the creation of new trade barriers”.
LULA TO CHINA: Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was also in China on a state visit, the New York Times said, noting that Lula was seeking “gains in new technologies, including…green energy”. His visit culminated in Chinese companies announcing $5bn in investments in Brazil, Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paulo reported, including in “sustainable aviation fuel”, “electric and hybrid cars” and other energy-related projects. A joint statement issued by the two countries stated that they will “deepen cooperation” on the energy transition and stated China will “send a high-level delegation” to COP30.
XI TO RUSSIA: Earlier, Xi made a state visit to Russia, during which Chinese and Russian policymakers discussed “Chinese companies’ involvement in Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects”, Reuters reported. A joint statement, published by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, pledged to implement projects “in the fields of oil, gas, LNG, civilian nuclear energy, coal, electricity [and] renewable energy”. State broadcaster CGTN called the China-Russia east-route gas pipeline, which began operating last December, a “landmark” in energy cooperation “benefiting about 450m people along its route”. Oleg Deripaska, chairman of the ecological committee of the China-Russia Friendship Committee for Peace and Development, told the People’s Daily: “Russia can learn from China’s experience of supply-side structural reforms to promote the creation of a mature green energy market.”
Captured
China currently has 161m tonnes (Mt) per year of electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking capacity and is building another 55Mt, according to a new data analysis tool developed by energy thinktank Global Energy Monitor. However, it noted, China “exhibits substantial gaps in data availability”, with feedstock information available for less than 8% of its EAF capacity.
Spotlight
What China’s coal country thinks about climate change
A new survey of Shanxi residents, exploring attitudes to climate change and “just transition”, offers a rare insight into the views of Chinese people on the frontline of the energy transition in the country’s largest coal-producing province.
In this issue, Carbon Brief interviews Tom Wang, one of the organisers of the survey, about its key findings. Wang is executive director of People of Asia for Climate Solutions, a climate advocacy group.
This interview was edited for length and clarity. A full version is available on Carbon Brief’s website.
Carbon Brief: Why did you want to conduct this survey?
Tom Wang: I’m from Shanxi province. I grew up thinking that coal was a necessary part of life. But I also lost quite a lot of people in my family to coal-mine accidents or air pollution.
Shanxi province is the world’s largest coal producer. [Note: The province’s coal output reached 1.3bn tonnes in 2024.] We contribute around one-third of [China’s] coal. Millions of people rely on coal-related jobs.
[But China’s climate policies mean] Shanxi cannot depend on the coal economy. Shanxi province’s own policies have also covered the energy transition. These policies [are not] being translated into something more tangible to people’s lives. People are not prepared.
That is why we wanted to do this survey. We ask two simple questions: do you know about and support the energy transition – and are you prepared?
CB: What do people in Shanxi think about the energy transition, climate change and climate policy?
TW: When it comes to climate change, awareness levels are very different between different demographic groups. For example, government workers and people with higher income or education levels know about climate change.
Some could identify things happening around them, such as warmer temperatures every year, longer drought periods and not having any snow last winter. Some even mentioned extreme weather, including heatwaves and a week-long rainstorm that ruined a lot of Shanxi’s ancient temples.
However, the most vulnerable communities, by which I basically mean the coal community, don’t really know about climate change. They know about [climate] buzzwords, but they don’t really understand them.
CB: Why is that?
TW: Most state-owned media talk a lot about climate change. However, they do not explain what that means for people’s everyday lives.
When we explain the energy transition means we are going to use less coal, they can understand…and feel the impact on their lives quite sharply.
CB: The survey also asked people what they would like to see prioritised in a just transition away from coal. What did respondents say was important to them?
TW: We all know JET-P, the Just Energy Transition Partnership. However, in Shanxi province, what we really need is the JET-B, a Just Energy Transition Brotherhood.
Rich provinces in China relied heavily on Shanxi’s coal to develop their economies. [The JET-B calls on them to] support Shanxi with its energy transition. Many [respondents] agreed with this!
Also, the people of Shanxi are actually willing to change or improve their own skill-sets. They know how dangerous it is to work in the coal industry. There is a high awareness of the lack of a future for the coal industry among respondents. People are quite happy to move on, if they are provided with good training and strong support to help that transition go smoothly.
CB: According to the survey, just over a quarter of Shanxi’s young people felt they did not have the skills they needed for a clean-energy economy. Around half were worried about the closure of coal mines and coal-power plants. What can be done to address their concerns?
TW: In Shanxi province we have universities that are dedicated to the coal industry. We have spent so much energy and resources on preparing our young people for the coal industry, instead of preparing them for the transition away from coal.
Young people don’t know how to prepare for the energy transition. And then there’s the current job market. Shanxi’s economy is so weak – in 2024, our province had the lowest economic growth rate in China.
Shanxi is not very good at setting up new industries. We have all of this potential but we are not really translating it into jobs. That’s why the young generation doesn’t feel confident.
CB: What lessons should be taken away from the survey?
TW: We need to prepare…the coal community and the young generation today. We cannot afford to wait any longer. We need to tangibly start to train people and raise new sectors.
Communications are also critical. We need to inspire people. Young people and the coal community are feeling lost.
We need to highlight that all these [possibilities] are out there. That’s what I would like our policymakers, investors and NGOs to tell people. And richer provinces should step up and say: “Now it’s time for us to help you.”
Watch, read, listen
CLIMATE SCIENCE: The Science and Technology Daily interviewed Prof Liu Congqiang, founding dean of the School of Geosystem Science of Tianjin University, on how the earth systems discipline emerged in China and how it contributes to researching climate change.
NEW STRATEGIES: The Diplomat examined how ambitious climate diplomacy can be sustained without high-level climate cooperation between the US and China.
CLIMATE LEADER: Global Solutions published an article by Henry Huiyao Wang, founder and president of the influential thinktank Center for China and Globalization, on how China can “leverage” its energy transition successes to advance “global climate mitigation”.
ELECTROSTATE: The Financial Times explored how China’s growing electrification helps it overcome a number of geopolitical, security and supply chain “vulnerabilit[ies]”.
New science
Nature Food
China’s agricultural machinery emissions have increased nearly sevenfold since 1985, new research has shown, adding that if they continue to grow they could “hinder” the country’s ability to reach its carbon-neutrality targets. The study, covered by Carbon Brief, used data from the China “statistical yearbook” to calculate the emissions of four types of farm equipment. Prof Zhangcai Qin, a professor at Sun Yat-sen University who was not involved in the new study, told Carbon Brief that disaggregating the emissions of agricultural machinery from food systems more broadly “allow[s] policymakers to design targeted interventions without compromising agricultural productivity”.
Communications Earth & Environment
A new study found that China’s “young natural forests” currently store more above-ground carbon than comparable “young planted forests” – mainly due to differences in tree density. The authors mapped the “aboveground carbon accumulation rates” for China’s young “natural” and “planted” forests in 2020. They found that planted forests sequester carbon more quickly than natural forests. However, they projected that by 2060, natural forests will still hold more above-ground carbon than planted forests.
A new study used machine learning to calculate a possible carbon emissions trajectory for China through to 2030. It mapped China’s carbon
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 15 May 2025: CO2 emissions fall; Drought affects food production; Climate diplomacy at CELAC appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Drought and heatwaves occurring together – known as “compound” events – have “surged” across the world since the early 2000s, a new study shows.
Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) can have devastating effects, creating the ideal conditions for intense wildfires, such as Australia’s “Black Summer” of 2019-20 where bushfires burned 24m hectares and killed 33 people.
The research, published in Science Advances, finds that the increase in CDHEs is predominantly being driven by events that start with a heatwave.
The global area affected by such “heatwave-led” compound events has more than doubled between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, the study says.
The rapid increase in these events over the last 23 years cannot be explained solely by global warming, the authors note.
Since the late 1990s, feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere have become stronger, making heatwaves more likely to trigger drought conditions, they explain.
One of the study authors tells Carbon Brief that societies must pay greater attention to compound events, which can “cause severe impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and society”.
Compound events
CDHEs are extreme weather events where drought and heatwave conditions occur simultaneously – or shortly after each other – in the same region.
These events are often triggered by large-scale weather patterns, such as “blocking” highs, which can produce “prolonged” hot and dry conditions, according to the study.
Prof Sang-Wook Yeh is one of the study authors and a professor at the Ewha Womans University in South Korea. He tells Carbon Brief:
“When heatwaves and droughts occur together, the two hazards reinforce each other through land-atmosphere interactions. This amplifies surface heating and soil moisture deficits, making compound events more intense and damaging than single hazards.”
CDHEs can begin with either a heatwave or a drought.
The sequence of these extremes is important, the study says, as they have different drivers and impacts.
For example, in a CDHE where the heatwave was the precursor, increased direct sunshine causes more moisture loss from soils and plants, leading to a drought.
Conversely, in an event where the drought was the precursor, the lack of soil moisture means that less of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation and more goes into warming the Earth’s surface. This produces favourable conditions for heatwaves.
The study shows that the majority of CDHEs globally start out as a drought.
In recent years, there has been increasing focus on these events due to the devastating impact they have on agriculture, ecosystems and public health.
In Russia in the summer of 2010, a compound drought-heatwave event – and the associated wildfires – caused the death of nearly 55,000 people, the study notes.
The record-breaking Pacific north-west “heat dome” in 2021 triggered extreme drought conditions that caused “significant declines” in wheat yields, as well as in barley, canola and fruit production in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, says the study.
Increasing events
To assess how CDHEs are changing, the researchers use daily reanalysis data to identify droughts and heatwaves events. (Reanalysis data combines past observations with climate models to create a historical climate record.) Then, using an algorithm, they analyse how these events overlap in both time and space.
The study covers the period from 1980 to 2023 and the world’s land surface, excluding polar regions where CDHEs are rare.
The research finds that the area of land affected by CDHEs has “increased substantially” since the early 2000s.
Heatwave-led events have been the main contributor to this increase, the study says, with their spatial extent rising 110% between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, compared to a 59% increase for drought-led events.
The map below shows the global distribution of CDHEs over 1980-2023. The charts show the percentage of the land surface affected by a heatwave-led CDHE (red) or a drought-led CDHE (yellow) in a given year (left) and relative increase in each CDHE type (right).
The study finds that CDHEs have occurred most frequently in northern South America, the southern US, eastern Europe, central Africa and south Asia.
Threshold passed
The authors explain that the increase in heatwave-led CDHEs is related to rising global temperatures, but that this does not tell the whole story.
In the earlier 22-year period of 1980-2001, the study finds that the spatial extent of heatwave-led CDHEs rises by 1.6% per 1C of global temperature rise. For the more-recent period of 2022-23, this increases “nearly eightfold” to 13.1%.
The change suggests that the rapid increase in the heatwave-led CDHEs occurred after the global average temperature “surpasse[d] a certain temperature threshold”, the paper says.
This threshold is an absolute global average temperature of 14.3C, the authors estimate (based on an 11-year average), which the world passed around the year 2000.
Investigating the recent surge in heatwave-leading CDHEs further, the researchers find a “regime shift” in land-atmosphere dynamics “toward a persistently intensified state after the late 1990s”.
In other words, the way that drier soils drive higher surface temperatures, and vice versa, is becoming stronger, resulting in more heatwave-led compound events.
Daily data
The research has some advantages over other previous studies, Yeh says. For instance, the new work uses daily estimations of CDHEs, compared to monthly data used in past research. This is “important for capturing the detailed occurrence” of these events, says Yeh.
He adds that another advantage of their study is that it distinguishes the sequence of droughts and heatwaves, which allows them to “better understand the differences” in the characteristics of CDHEs.
Dr Meryem Tanarhte is a climate scientist at the University Hassan II in Morocco, and Dr Ruth Cerezo Mota is a climatologist and a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Both scientists, who were not involved in the study, agree that the daily estimations give a clearer picture of how CDHEs are changing.
Cerezo-Mota adds that another major contribution of the study is its global focus. She tells Carbon Brief that in some regions, such as Mexico and Africa, there is a lack of studies on CDHEs:
“Not because the events do not occur, but perhaps because [these regions] do not have all the data or the expertise to do so.”
However, she notes that the reanalysis data used by the study does have limitations with how it represents rainfall in some parts of the world.
Compound impacts
The study notes that if CDHEs continue to intensify – particularly events where heatwaves are the precursors – they could drive declining crop productivity, increased wildfire frequency and severe public health crises.
These impacts could be “much more rapid and severe as global warming continues”, Yeh tells Carbon Brief.
Tanarhte notes that these events can be forecasted up to 10 days ahead in many regions. Furthermore, she says, the strongest impacts can be prevented “through preparedness and adaptation”, including through “water management for agriculture, heatwave mitigation measures and wildfire mitigation”.
The study recommends reassessing current risk management strategies for these compound events. It also suggests incorporating the sequences of drought and heatwaves into compound event analysis frameworks “to enhance climate risk management”.
Cerezo-Mota says that it is clear that the world needs to be prepared for the increased occurrence of these events. She tells Carbon Brief:
“These [risk assessments and strategies] need to be carried out at the local level to understand the complexities of each region.”
The post Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes