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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
China confirms climate commitment
XI’S NOT FOR TURNING: Chinese president Xi Jinping confirmed that the country’s 2035 “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) will cover the “entire scope of the economy, including all greenhouse gases” and be published before COP30, Bloomberg reported. It added that these comments, made at a virtual meeting of global leaders, signaled that “China won’t back off from its ambitions” on climate change, despite economic and geopolitical challenges. Reuters noted that Xi also flagged that “China’s actions to address climate change will not slow down”. As “Xi’s first international appearance on climate change since 2021”, the speech “sends a clear signal of China’s support for multilateralism”, Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Bloomberg. Nevertheless, campaign group Greenpeace East Asia global policy advisor Yao Zhe “cautioned against” interpreting it as meaning that an ambitious climate pledge is “guaranteed”, Climate Home News said, adding that it “remains an open question, especially given the ongoing tariff war with the US”.
BRAZIL’S INFLUENCE: The meeting was part of a broader campaign by COP30 host Brazil to persuade China, the EU and other powers “to commit to cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep global warming well below 2C”, Reuters reported. Shortly before the meeting, Huang Runqiu, head of China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment, reaffirmed China’s commitment to tackle climate change at a meeting with COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago in Beijing, according to China Environment News. Corrêa do Lago later told journalists he believes China is developing a “very ambitious” climate pledge, Bloomberg said.
GREEN BRICS: At a meeting in Rio de Janeiro, the foreign ministers of BRICS member states “reinforce[d the] group’s commitment to climate action”, according to a press statement published on the bloc’s website. Meanwhile, Xi visited the headquarters of the New Development Bank, a multilateral development bank established by BRICS, where he called on the bank to “implement more…green finance projects, so as to help developing countries…accelerate their green and low-carbon transformation”, the state-run newspaper China Daily reported. A China Daily editorial noted: “The BRICS countries are working together to help…developing countries finance the fight against climate change”. However, Reuters covered new research finding that Chinese companies are still building 7.7GW of new coal capacity overseas, mostly in BRICS member Indonesia, counter to China’s 2021 pledge to “stop financing coal projects overseas”.
Solar and wind outweigh fossil fuels

RENEWABLES REIGN: China’s combined wind and solar capacity has exceeded that of thermal sources (火电, which mainly refers to coal and gas) for the first time in history, industry news outlet BJX News reported, with 74 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar installations in the first quarter of 2025 bringing total capacity up to 1,482GW. This compares to 1,451GW of thermal power, the outlet added. Finance outlet Caixin noted that wind and solar capacity had already topped coal power (煤电) capacity in July last year. In a press conference, a National Energy Administration (NEA) official indicated that solar and wind capacity additions will continue to surpass thermal additions in the long-term, according to BJX News. Writing on Bluesky, Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), wrote that the high number of new solar and wind additions showed a “huge rush to install capacity” before subsidies are cut off in July under the forthcoming market-based renewables pricing policy.
NEW NUCLEAR: Meanwhile, China has approved the construction of 10 new nuclear reactors, Shanghai-based news outlet Jiemian said. The units will have a combined capacity of at least 12GW, according to Carbon Brief calculations, bringing China’s total nuclear capacity to 113GW once built, according to state broadcaster CCTV. The country has also formalised a ban on new “captive” coal-fired power plants in an updated list of business areas in which companies in China are not allowed to operate for 2025, BJX News reported.
MARKET REFORM: A new notice on regional spot markets for electricity was issued, BJX News said, mandating several provinces to begin either “official operations” or trial operations, with the goal of spot markets covering the whole nation by the end of 2025. China enacted “basic rules” for ancillary services markets for the power grid, finance news outlet East Money said, which includes defining the scope for grid-regulating services, operating practices and cost mechanisms for the sector. An analysis in China Electric Power News noted that the issuance of these rules marks the establishment of trading rules for the “three major trading types” – medium- and long-term markets, spot markets and ancillary services – in an “important step” for power market reform.
INDUSTRY AND TRANSPORT: China has called for electrification to account for 10% of the transport sector’s total “end-use energy consumption” by 2027 and for battery electric vehicles (EVs) to make up the majority of new car sales by 2035, East Money reported. Separately, China has issued its first “green hydrogen certificate”, which was awarded to a “solar + grid power” hydrogen project, the Substack China Hydrogen Bulletin reported.
Tariffs, export controls and executive orders
THOUSAND-PERCENT TARIFFS: The US has “announced plans to impose tariffs” ranging from 41-3,521% on solar panels imported from south-east Asian countries, many of which are manufactured by Chinese companies in the region, BBC News reported. Chinese companies are likely to embrace relocating to countries other than the US, the New York Times said, as the “profit margins on solar exports to the US are high enough that relocation will be worth it, even with continuing tariff uncertainty”.
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MINERAL FLOWS: China’s exports of critical metals to the US have “plung[ed]” in recent weeks, with “shipments of several critical items halting entirely in March”, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported. The shortage of minerals, which are “vital for EVs, wind turbines” and other clean-energy technologies, the Financial Times reported, could “cause shutdowns in automotive production…if Beijing fully chokes off exports”. Meanwhile, China has criticised a new US executive order “aimed at stepping up deep-sea mining” to increase access to key minerals, saying the move “violates international law”, according to BBC News.
Spotlight
China issues new ‘action plan’ to control HFC emissions
China issued a new “action plan” in April to control hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases (GHGs) that could significantly increase short-term climate warming.
In this issue, Carbon Brief assesses its potential impact on China’s GHG emissions.
Short-term pollutant
HFCs are man-made GHGs that can be several thousand times stronger at absorbing heat than carbon dioxide (CO2). One type, HFC-23, is 10,000 times more powerful than CO2.
They are used in a number of appliances, particularly as coolants for fridges and air conditioning.
Efforts to phase them out are governed by the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on ozone-depleting substances, which China ratified in 2021.
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of HFCs, accounting for more than 70% of global production and 50% of consumption. It also produces and consumes the majority of the appliances that use them.
Its HFC emissions stood at 273m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2020, according to the government’s recently-submitted GHG inventory. This is equivalent to more than 2% of China’s CO2 emissions that year, which totalled 11bn tonnes.
Despite HFCs’ relatively low share in overall GHG emissions, their absorption strength necessitates their inclusion in climate strategies, says Sun Xiaopu, senior China counsel at the thinktank Institute For Governance and Sustainable Development (IGSD).
She told Carbon Brief that mitigating HFCs will help avoid “short-term global warming” and climate tipping points.
Action plan for 2030
The government’s plan sets targets and timelines for “gradually reducing” production and consumption of appliances using HFCs by 2030, as well as reducing or banning consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs).
These include lowering HFC production by 2029 by 10% from a 2024 baseline of 2bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e). Consumption would also be reduced 10% from a baseline of 900MtCO2e in this timeframe. This aligns with China’s obligations under the Kigali Amendment.
From 2026, China will “prohibit” the production of fridges and freezers using HFC refrigerants.
From 2029, it will ban the use of HFCs in most cooling systems, including air conditioners and other refrigeration equipment – prioritising the automotive, home appliance and industrial cooling sectors.
To enforce this, China will take measures such as requiring licences for manufacturing and consumption of controlled HFCs, improving monitoring of the production of HFC-23, as well as encouraging recycling of HFC refrigerants, and imposing import and export quotas for HFC refrigerants (although not the appliances that use them).
The plan will also introduce “stricter legal liabilities and higher financial penalties” to deter non-compliance, said Zheng Tan, programme officer of the industry programme at the climate nonprofit Energy Foundation.
He told Carbon Brief this is a “crucial step” in strengthening China’s existing HFC policy framework.
Tightening controls
Although China has controlled HFCs for some time, efforts accelerated after 2021, Hu Jianxin, a professor at Peking University’s College of Environmental Science and Engineering and Kigali Amendment negotiator, told Environment China.
China has shown willingness to act ambitiously on HFCs before. It issued a notice to freeze domestic production capacity for five widely-used HFCs in 2021, two years earlier than its international obligations required.
The government reported, prior to the action plan, that its HFC controls saw production quotas in 2024 fall by 404MtCO2e and consumption quotas fall by 262MtCO2e year-on-year.
There is scope for ambitious HFC action to continue, Sun told Carbon Brief.
Non-government bodies could use “vertical” communication channels, such as panels of technological, economic and scientific experts, to feed governments information, she added, helping them understand the feasibility of higher targets, “leapfrog obsolete technologies” or address roadblocks to adopting alternative solutions.
Hu noted that industry representatives have been consulted on HFC controls, which could encourage greater compliance – in contrast to reports of companies previously flouting ODS production controls.
Nevertheless, he told Environment China industry could “always do more”, adding that, while some sectors could stop using HFCs immediately, others may need decades – although he did not clarify which sectors, or why.
Sun speculates that this may be because the patents for these alternatives are held by non-Chinese companies, creating barriers for Chinese companies to discover new solutions.
The climate thinktank Institute for Global Decarbonisation Progress found that Chinese companies hold only 14% of patents for one such group of compounds, hydrofluoroolefins.
Beyond patents, it added, alternatives “often encounter challenges related to safety, cost or energy efficiency”.
According to Zheng, developing “effective monitoring, reporting and verification tools and capacity-building measures”, policy support to increase demand for less damaging alternatives and developing science-based standards will be important for enhancing compliance.
Furthermore, China’s action plan only applies to appliances using HFC refrigerants within China, Sun said. Companies making such appliances for export are not subject to its controls.
A report co-authored by IGSD and the appliance-focused nonprofit Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program found that Chinese companies, among others, are “dumping” inefficient air-conditioning units that use HFC refrigerants in south-east Asia.
Halting this trade, the report said, could “result in a reduction of over 1GtCO2e over 25 years”.
Watch, read, listen
CHINA 101: The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission held a congressional hearing on China’s energy landscape and its geopolitical implications, featuring a number of experts on China’s energy and climate developments.
GREEN FINANCE: The East Asia Forum published an article by Christoph Nedopil Wang, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, on how China can cooperate with other Asian countries to “set a global example for green economic growth”.
COOPERATION AND COMPETITION: The European Guanxi podcast explored how EU-China climate cooperation could navigate tensions around carbon taxes and EV pricing.
EMPTY BARRELS: A new report by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies outlined three potential scenarios for how China’s rising EV adoption will affect oil demand, finding it could fall by 600,000 barrels per day by 2030.
70%
The reduction in rainfall in the southern province of Guizhou since November last year, compared to average levels in previous years, as it battles a “lingering drought that has severely affected rural communities”, the state-run newspaper China Daily reported. Temperatures in April averaged 12.7C, marking the “second-highest national average temperature recorded” for the month since 1961, according to the state-supporting news outlet Global Times.
New science
Construction and analysis of China’s carbon emission model based on machine learning
Scientific Reports
A new study used machine learning to calculate a possible carbon emissions trajectory for China through to 2030. It mapped China’s carbon emissions to nine explanatory variables, including the “proportion of coal in total energy consumption and urbanisation rate”. As a result, the model estimates that China’s carbon emissions will “level off from 2022 to 2028 and peak in 2028”, with annual emissions in 2030 “expected to be about 9.72bn tonnes”.
Scientific Reports
New research examined the predictions of CMIP6 models for annual cycles of surface air temperature over China, “one of the most profound manifestations of global warming”. The study examined historical and future monthly temperatures under three different shared socioeconomic pathways. The study found that, under the model, the “amplitude” – or spread between the highest and lowest temperatures in a given year – would be narrower in future, although it noted that the patterns of likely temperature changes differ regionally, and particularly between northern and southern China.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 1 May 2025: Xi steadfast on climate; Solar and wind surpassed thermal power; Controlling short-term GHGs appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Big banks behind “net zero” alliance continued lending to coal firms
Several major banks that helped set up the UN’s now-defunct Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) in 2021 have since continued to lend money to coal companies, a new report has revealed.
Bank of America, Barclays, Citibank, Deutsche Bank and Santander were heavily involved in the NZBA and the associated Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) when it was launched by Mark Carney, then a UN climate envoy and now Canada’s leader, in the run-up to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow.
Despite their involvement, data released this week shows those banks and some others did not reduce the amount of money they lent, nor the value of their underwriting, to coal activities between 2022 and 2025. Around half of the NZBA members who were engaged in coal financing over that time increased it and half cut it, according to the report by German environmental research group Urgewald.
Ana Botín, executive chair of Santander, was a member of the GFANZ CEO principals’ group and said at the time of the NZBA launch that her Spanish bank was “proud to be part of the founding members of this new alliance and to accelerate progress towards net zero”.
Since then, the report’s data documents that Santander has provided loans and underwriting worth hundreds of millions of dollars each year to coal companies, particularly American coal-power plant operators Duke Energy and the Southern Company. Santander did not respond to a request for comment.
Urgewald’s research adjusts the value of loans and underwriting provided to coal companies based on how much of a company’s revenues come from the most polluting fossil fuel. So a hypothetical $100 million loan to German utility RWE is valued at $21 million, as 21% of RWE’s revenue is from coal.
The research does not take account of whether companies are expanding their coal business or phasing it out for greener alternatives. Some banks have said their coal clients need to put in place transition plans by a certain date. Some also say that, by a certain date, they will stop lending money to clients that get more than a set percentage of their revenue from coal.
Most companies expanding coal are in Asian nations like China, India and Indonesia and are largely financed by banks from their own countries. But there are examples of NZBA founding members supporting companies that are actively prolonging the life of their coal businesses.
For example, Glencore, a Switzerland-based multinational that gets 4% of its revenue from coal, has just won preliminary regulatory approval to keep on coal mining in Australia’s Hunter Valley until 2045. Last year, the company was supported by loans and underwriting from Bank of America, Citigroup, Santander, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Standard Chartered.
Good and bad news
Some NZBA founding members like Swiss giant UBS have reduced their loans and underwriting for coal companies, the data suggests. Others – like Triodos and Kenya Commercial Bank – have provided no support for coal companies since at least 2021.
Urgewald researcher Hannah O’Neill told Climate Home News that “the banking sector is not moving in one direction. There is a growing divide between banks that are tightening their coal policies and reducing their exposure, and those where coal policies remain weak or where financing continues.”
Unlike the UN’s Race to Zero campaign, with which it partnered, the NZBA did not require its members to end financing for fossil fuels like coal, leading to accusations by climate campaigners that its rules were too weak.
Despite this, after Donald Trump’s re-election as US president in November 2024, several North American banks quit the alliance and the NZBA’s requirements were diluted in April 2025. After further withdrawals, the group shut itself down in October 2025.
Globally, the Urgewald report found that many banks in the European Union, Thailand, Malaysia, India and Taiwan have reduced their coal finance since governments agreed at COP26 to phase down coal power.
But with Chinese, American, Indonesian and South Korean banks increasing their support, total bank financing for the coal industry has remained broadly the same each year since 2022.
“Coal financing is not disappearing – but it is concentrating in banks and markets where coal policies are either missing or weak,” said Heffa Schücking, director of Urgewald.
Urgewald’s definition of coal companies includes firms and their subsidiaries that explore for, process, trade, transport and mine coal, or burn it in power plants to produce electricity, or manufacture equipment for the coal industry. It does not include companies that use coal to make cement or steel – and an adjustment is made to account for how much of the business model is coal-related.
Banks defend delays
At the time of publication, most of the banks named in the report for increasing their coal finance had not responded to requests for comment. But a spokesperson for Deutsche Bank pointed Climate Home News to its May 2026 announcement that it was delaying its requirement for existing clients to present it with transition plans and cut their coal exposure.
Instead of having to present these plans by the end of 2025, the bank has given them until the end of 2027. They will also have to ensure that their revenue share from thermal coal falls below half by then, the bank added. New clients need energy transition plans to access finance.
Deutsche Bank said at the time it was delaying its requirements because of the “increasingly complex regulatory environment as well as differing speeds of energy transition in various regions beyond what was anticipated by Deutsche Bank in 2023”.
Big banks’ lending to coal backers undermines Indonesia’s green plans
A spokesperson for Barclays told Climate Home News: “Many companies in this report are diversified energy or mining companies. We do not provide financing to companies that generate more than 30% of revenues from thermal coal mining or power generation, and we will phase out all financing by 2035.”
The Barclays spokesperson added: “Barclays is financing an energy sector in transition, providing finance to meet current energy needs and also financing the scaling of clean energy. Over the past three years, we have facilitated more than $300 billion of sustainable and transition finance, including billions to cleaner energy projects, and invested millions into climate tech.”
The post Big banks behind “net zero” alliance continued lending to coal firms appeared first on Climate Home News.
Big banks behind “net zero” alliance continued lending to coal firms
Climate Change
As COP31 co-host, Australia should make its polluters pay for climate damage
Harjeet Singh is the global convenor of the Fill the Fund campaign and founding director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation. Julie-Anne Richards is strategic campaign lead for the Make Big Polluters Pay campaign in Australia.
This year, a glacier collapse in Nepal’s Himalayan valleys swept away the lives of at least 1,500 people, with recovery costs of US$5 billion, or 10% of national GDP. But this was not a tragedy for which no one can be blamed. This was a crime with a balance sheet – one whose costs are paid by people who did nothing to cause it, and whose profits are booked by polluting corporations that did everything.
Across the Pacific, the calculation of injustice is now brutally clear. According to Oxfam Australia, the average yearly GDP loss of Pacific countries from climate disasters has increased four-fold over the last decade, reaching 14.3% of GDP. The number of Pacific people battered by climate disasters has risen by 700% in a decade. Whole villages are being packed up and moved as the sea takes the land beneath them.
Let’s look at the other ledger. This year, as climate change and an oil shock drove up the cost of living for ordinary families, Woodside – touted as “one of Australia’s biggest winners” from the war in the Middle East – reported revenues jumping nearly 30% to AUD$6 billion in just three months.
In Australia, Oxfam finds that in 2023-2024, fossil fuel corporations paid only AUD$22.8 billion in corporate income tax – just 5% of their AUD$436 billion in total reported income – while 26 out of 80, or one in every three large fossil fuel corporations, did not pay corporate income tax at all.
The polluters are not struggling to pay for the damage they cause. They are choosing not to.
This is the moral obscenity at the heart of the climate crisis: the money exists. It is simply flowing in the wrong direction. And nowhere is that clearer than in the funds the world built to protect the vulnerable, now left to languish.
Funds struggle to fill their coffers
The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) has received US$2.8 billion in requests from 119 countries. And Nepal has sought an urgent US$20 million for immediate needs. Yet the Fund has only US$342 million in total to give.
The Pacific Resilience Facility – a fund the Pacific designed for itself, to prepare its own communities – sits well short of even its modest US$500 million capitalisation target. And the Adaptation Fund is running on empty. While adaptation needs in developing countries could reach US$387 billion a year by 2030, according to the latest UNEP Adaptation Gap report, the Fund’s resource mobilisation target of a modest US$300 million for 2025 fell far short, with only US$135 million pledged.
This is a matter of priorities, not of resources. For decades, the world has accepted a simple principle – the polluter pays principle – whether through the OECD, of which Australia is a member, or Europe’s carbon pricing. New York and Vermont have already passed laws to make Big Oil pay into climate superfunds, and ten more US states are moving to follow.
The idea is neither radical nor new. It’s time to make big polluters pay.
Comment: After Hormuz, Nepal and wildfires, people want action to make polluters pay
What is urgently needed is the courage to apply it to the fossil fuel corporations that have spent decades avoiding it. In November, Australia takes up the presidency of the COP31 negotiations, committing to stand shoulder to shoulder with its Pacific neighbours.
Australia, together with the Turkish COP31 Presidency, must guide and inspire progress at the upcoming climate conference, including on new climate finance pledges by developed countries (which agreed to mobilise at least $300 billion by 2035) and triple the funds available to the FRLD, the Adaptation Fund and the other UN climate funds.
Rich countries agreed to these goals two years ago at COP29. Yet, the reality is that developing countries’ need for climate finance is in the trillions annually, while developed countries continue to delay providing even what they have already committed. A clear signal recognising the importance of delivering the promised climate finance must come at next week’s Pre-COP in the Pacific, and COP31 in Antalya must go on to deliver against existing promises or risk an irreparable breakdown in trust.
Time for a climate pollution levy
Countries must also ensure funding for loss and damage takes its rightful place as the third pillar of climate finance, alongside mitigation and adaptation, in negotiations regarding the UNFCCC climate finance work programme and Article 9 on shifting finance flows towards a low-carbon, resilient world.
Australia, as President of Negotiations and as a Pacific nation, cannot ask the world to fill these funds while it lets its own coal and gas giants off the hook. Australia should not only stop approving new and expanded coal and gas mines, it should also introduce a Climate Pollution Levy on big coal, oil and gas corporations – a charge on every tonne of carbon pollution they extract and profit from. Independent analysis shows such a levy could raise tens of billions of dollars a year, and can be designed so the cost falls on the corporations, not on households.
This is not charity – it is compensation. It is the beginning of accountability. And the public is far ahead of its leaders: eight in 10 people worldwide, and a clear majority of Australians, want fossil fuel firms taxed to pay for the damage they cause.
Fossil fuel expansion threatens COP31 hosts’ credibility, experts warn
The money must go where the harm lands. A Climate Pollution Levy should feed the funds frontline communities are relying on – fully capitalising the Pacific Resilience Facility this year, replenishing the Adaptation Fund, and delivering the billions the loss and damage fund needs.
It is essential for these funds to be able to provide grant-based finance that reaches communities directly, not more loans that push drowning nations deeper into debt. With Nepal’s recovery costs estimated at around 10% of the country’s GDP, if we leave it to fend for itself without loss and damage funding, Nepal will likely be saddled with debt and could fail to recover adequately, increasing poverty and inequality.
We have heard enough empty pledges. We have watched enough funds announced with fanfare, only then to be starved in silence. The era of asking polluters politely is over. Australia, as COP31 president, has a rare chance to prove that the polluter pays principle means something and apply it to those who have profited the most.
The post As COP31 co-host, Australia should make its polluters pay for climate damage appeared first on Climate Home News.
As COP31 co-host, Australia should make its polluters pay for climate damage
Climate Change
What’s on the climate calendar for October 2026?
This is a republication of October’s edition of The Climate Agenda – a subscriber-only newsletter designed to keep you informed of the key events, negotiations and announcements happening every month. If you want to receive The Climate Agenda straight to your inbox at the start of each month, sign up as a subscriber today.
This month, we’ll be on the ground reporting from the Convention on Biological Diversity summit in Yerevan, Armenia later this month and following all the developments as we build towards COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye next month. Here’s what you need to know for October, why it matters and what to expect.

Brazilian Election
First round: Sunday 4 October – Second round: Sunday 25 October
This poll is being closely watched by Brazilian environmentalists as it’s likely to make a big difference to Brazil’s international climate politics and the health of the Amazon rainforest.
The two clear front-runners are current left-wing President Lula and right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who ruled from 2019 to 2023 but was declared ineligible to hold public office because of his attacks on the electoral system and is now under house arrest.
In the unlikely event that either candidate wins more than half the votes in the first round, they will be elected as the country’s leader. Latest polls have Lula on 39% and Bolsonaro on 35% (though the numbers are shifting) with several minor candidates in the single-digits. If none of them get a majority, there will be a one-on-one run-off on October 25.
The Latin American nation is set to record its lowest-ever level of deforestation, as efforts to rein in illegal clearing and restore Indigenous rights progressed under Lula. But Brazilian experts are warning that the huge agribusiness lobby in Congress, whose interests shape what happens in the Amazon, will be emboldened if Bolsonaro takes power, with the Supreme Court also risking a turn to the right.
As for climate politics, some seasoned watchers fear that Flávio – a climate change denier like his dad – could even try to pull Brazil out of the Paris Agreement. That would leave other countries to take forward Brazil’s COP30 global roadmaps on transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF) and ending deforestation – both of which are due to be delivered by COP31.
For Brazil’s own TAFF roadmap – commissioned earlier this year but so far nowhere to be seen – the election may have less of an impact, given Lula is as keen as any other politician to extract oil and gas from the Amazon, amid cross-party support for fossil fuel production.
Read more: Brazil leads “encouraging” decline in global rainforest destruction in 2025

Pre-COP
Monday 5 October – Thursday 8 October – Fiji and Tuvalu
The annual Pre-COP meeting is usually a business-like gathering of government negotiators, sounding out each other’s positions and laying the groundwork for deals at the main COP summit. But this year’s “pre” has been jazzed up by Australia’s partnership with Pacific governments keen to elevate their climate issues on the international stage.
“We will bring the eyes of the world to our region, highlight the threat that climate change poses to it, and show how Pacific voices are shaping global action to counter it,” Australian PM Anthony Albanese said of the event.
On Monday, before the Pre-COP officially starts, a group of senior government figures – including a handful of leaders – will visit the world’s second lowest-lying nation Tuvalu, as UN boss Antonio Guterres did in 2019.
They will visit areas affected by sea level rise, see climate resilience projects and meet local communities before flying 2.5 hours south to Fiji to join up with the Pre-COP – which starts on Tuesday – and speak at a “Leaders’ plenary session” that evening.
The Pre-COP runs until Thursday. Governments are expected to try to advance on some kind of a roadmap for protecting oceans from climate change, while Fiji says Pacific nations will emphasise the need to follow science and step up efforts to limit warming to 1.5C.
Australia is also due to present an action plan to improve access to climate finance for small island nations and least-developed countries, so that governments, development banks and climate funds can endorse it ahead of the Antalya summit.
Alongside the official Pre-COP discussions, a “green zone” will host talks organised by civil society on topics like public transport, carbon markets and the International Court of Justice advisory opinion. Unfortunately, these events won’t be available to follow online.
Read more: Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood
Read more: At regional summit, Pacific islands ask for COP31 support for clean energy and finance

Article 6.4 Supervisory Body
Monday 5 October – Friday 9 October – Bonn, Germany
The UN carbon market’s rule-making body meets for one last jam-packed session ahead of COP31, with decisions pending on several high-stakes issues that could shape the future of the new crediting mechanism.
Top of the agenda is a rulebook for clean cooking projects, which aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions by distributing more efficient cookstoves. These projects generate some of the most popular carbon credits but have also drawn some of the heaviest criticism for overstating their climate benefits through lax accounting.
Technical experts have recommended the Supervisory Body tighten the rules compared to existing crediting programmes, including by forcing cookstove project developers for the first time to guard against the risk of the climate benefits of their credits – the trees saved from becoming cooking fuel – being wiped out by fire, drought or logging.
The proposal on the so-called reversal risk assessment has sparked a “coordinated” lobbying campaign from the industry, some conservation NGOs and UNEP, arguing that stronger protections could hike project costs and restrict the supply of credits.
Read more: Industry and NGOs lobby to weaken UN carbon credit rules in “coordinated” push
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plenary
Monday 12 October – Friday 16 October – Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Scientists and government officials will try, once again, to agree on a timeline to produce the highly influential AR7 assessment report from the UN’s climate science body.
The faultlines that have blocked a deal at several previous sessions are well established: a large group of predominantly developed countries, small island and progressive Latin American states and the poorest nations want the reports to be ready in time to inform the UN’s next global assessment of climate action, due to be completed in November 2028.
A small group of primarily big emerging economies disagree, claiming this timeline would put a burden on developing countries with limited resources and restrict their ability to provide scientific input into the process.
Three options will be on the table in Addis Ababa. Two of them would see all three flagship assessment reports approved by July 2028 and September 2028 respectively, just in time to feed into the second Global Stocktake.
The third, based on proposals from Saudi Arabia and India, would deliver only the Working Group 1 report, on the physical science of climate change, by May 2028. The reports from Working Groups 2 and 3, covering climate impacts and ways to cut emissions, would not be approved until mid-2029, well after the stocktake concludes at COP33.
Delegates are also expected to discuss the IPCC’s increasingly strained budget, made worse by a funding gap left by the withdrawal of the United States. The panel has warned that, without a sustained increase in contributions, its trust fund’s cash balance would run out by the end of 2028, putting the delivery of the AR7 set of reports at risk and forcing cuts to in-person meetings, translation and outreach.
Read more: Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks
Read more: As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond

World Bank & IMF Annual Meetings
Tuesday 12 October – Sunday 18 October – Bangkok, Thailand
With their biggest shareholder – the US – resolutely opposed to climate action, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are likely to try to avoid mentioning climate change at their annual meetings in Bangkok – and there are no headline events on the subject.
But they aren’t in complete control of the agenda. Thailand will host a discussion on financing a green resilient economy and World Bank President Ajay Banga is likely to be challenged on climate at a live-streamed civil society townhall on October 12.
With tricky negotiations on the World Bank’s climate finance target concluded earlier this year (it was dropped), talks are moving on to the sustainability framework of the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, which invests in the private sector. Civil society is calling for its rules on protecting people and the planet to be maintained and strengthened.
The IMF’s guidance note to staff – which shapes the circumstances under which climate can be included in IMF programmes – will also be negotiated. Longer term, the Resilience and Sustainability Trust, which channels funding to green projects, will be reviewed but not before 2028 at the earliest.
Read more: World Bank’s climate work can endure without finance target, experts say
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) COP17
Monday 19 October – Friday 30 October – Yerevan, Armenia
The biodiversity COP – a sister convention to the UN climate process – will for the first time take stock of progress towards key goals in its 2022 landmark agreement, the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). These include a headline target to protect and conserve at least 30% of the planet’s land and marine ecosystems by 2030.
A draft report prepared by a scientific panel warns that “unless collective implementation accelerates rapidly, the 2030 targets and mission will not be achieved”. In fact, governments are failing on 22 out of 23 targets. The final report is expected to be published ahead of COP17, where governments are expected to react strongly.
UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told journalists earlier this month that the most significant progress is expected to occur towards the end of the decade, as 174 countries took the first four years to develop national targets.
Finance, meanwhile, is set to become a contentious issue, as the draft report says developed countries fell short on a target to provide $20bn per year in international public finance for nature protection, reaching only about $17bn per year from 2020 to 2023. They have also yet to meet a wider goal to mobilise $200bn per year counting all kinds of finance.
Much like in climate talks, the EU has proposed to broaden the base of donors to include emerging economies who want to “voluntarily assume the obligations” of developed countries. Saudi Arabia and Qatar want nothing to do with this proposal. China has said bringing in new contributors should not weaken the obligations of developed countries. Expect a fight in Yerevan.
A preliminary meeting in Nairobi in August resulted in a heavily bracketed text that delegates will have to unravel in Armenia. One observer said countries had “overall missed the level of urgency” needed.
Keep an eye out for our webinar live from Yerevan later this month, where we’ll provide an update on the talks and how governments are responding to science’s demands for quicker action.
Read more: Mombasa ocean summit drives progress on marine protection, but threats persist
Read more: UN biodiversity talks agree finance roadmap, postponing decision on a new fund
European Climate Resilience & Risk Management Framework
Wednesday 28 October – Brussels, Belgium
Following a torrid summer beset by recurring heatwaves, drought and outbreaks of forest fires across the continent, the European Commission will present its keenly awaited climate resilience and risk management framework to help member states protect their populations from worsening climate change impacts.
As part of the policy package, the Commission will identify 100 of Europe’s most climate-vulnerable territories. And alongside an assessment of the risks, there will be guidance at which level they should be managed – regional, national or by the EU. Currently, confusion often arises over who is responsible for preventing, preparing for and managing disasters across the bloc.
The framework will also aim to make Europe a “champion in adaptation technologies” – such as drought-resistant crops, flood prevention or energy-efficient cooling – which have been described by EU President Ursula von der Leyen as “a huge emerging market”.
With only around a quarter of catastrophe losses in Europe covered by private insurance, the Commission also plans to set up a Climate Insurance Alliance to boost that figure.
READ MORE: WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in
The post What’s on the climate calendar for October 2026? appeared first on Climate Home News.
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