Connect with us

Published

on

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

China confirms climate commitment

XI’S NOT FOR TURNING: Chinese president Xi Jinping confirmed that the country’s 2035 “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) will cover the “entire scope of the economy, including all greenhouse gases” and be published before COP30, Bloomberg reported. It added that these comments, made at a virtual meeting of global leaders, signaled that “China won’t back off from its ambitions” on climate change, despite economic and geopolitical challenges. Reuters noted that Xi also flagged that “China’s actions to address climate change will not slow down”. As “Xi’s first international appearance on climate change since 2021”, the speech “sends a clear signal of China’s support for multilateralism”, Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Bloomberg. Nevertheless, campaign group Greenpeace East Asia global policy advisor Yao Zhe “cautioned against” interpreting it as meaning that an ambitious climate pledge is “guaranteed”, Climate Home News said, adding that it “remains an open question, especially given the ongoing tariff war with the US”.

BRAZIL’S INFLUENCE: The meeting was part of a broader campaign by COP30 host Brazil to persuade China, the EU and other powers “to commit to cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep global warming well below 2C”, Reuters reported. Shortly before the meeting, Huang Runqiu, head of China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment, reaffirmed China’s commitment to tackle climate change at a meeting with COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago in Beijing, according to China Environment News. Corrêa do Lago later told journalists he believes China is developing a “very ambitious” climate pledge, Bloomberg said.

GREEN BRICS: At a meeting in Rio de Janeiro, the foreign ministers of BRICS member states “reinforce[d the] group’s commitment to climate action”, according to a press statement published on the bloc’s website. Meanwhile, Xi visited the headquarters of the New Development Bank, a multilateral development bank established by BRICS, where he called on the bank to “implement more…green finance projects, so as to help developing countries…accelerate their green and low-carbon transformation”, the state-run newspaper China Daily reported. A China Daily editorial noted: “The BRICS countries are working together to help…developing countries finance the fight against climate change”. However, Reuters covered new research finding that Chinese companies are still building 7.7GW of new coal capacity overseas, mostly in BRICS member Indonesia, counter to China’s 2021 pledge to “stop financing coal projects overseas”.

Solar and wind outweigh fossil fuels

上微信关注《碳简报》

RENEWABLES REIGN: China’s combined wind and solar capacity has exceeded that of thermal sources (火电, which mainly refers to coal and gas) for the first time in history, industry news outlet BJX News reported, with 74 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar installations in the first quarter of 2025 bringing total capacity up to 1,482GW. This compares to 1,451GW of thermal power, the outlet added. Finance outlet Caixin noted that wind and solar capacity had already topped coal power (煤电) capacity in July last year. In a press conference, a National Energy Administration (NEA) official indicated that solar and wind capacity additions will continue to surpass thermal additions in the long-term, according to BJX News. Writing on Bluesky, Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), wrote that the high number of new solar and wind additions showed a “huge rush to install capacity” before subsidies are cut off in July under the forthcoming market-based renewables pricing policy.

NEW NUCLEAR: Meanwhile, China has approved the construction of 10 new nuclear reactors, Shanghai-based news outlet Jiemian said. The units will have a combined capacity of at least 12GW, according to Carbon Brief calculations, bringing China’s total nuclear capacity to 113GW once built, according to state broadcaster CCTV. The country has also formalised a ban on new “captive” coal-fired power plants in an updated list of business areas in which companies in China are not allowed to operate for 2025, BJX News reported.

MARKET REFORM: A new notice on regional spot markets for electricity was issued, BJX News said, mandating several provinces to begin either “official operations” or trial operations, with the goal of spot markets covering the whole nation by the end of 2025. China enacted “basic rules” for ancillary services markets for the power grid, finance news outlet East Money said, which includes defining the scope for grid-regulating services, operating practices and cost mechanisms for the sector. An analysis in China Electric Power News noted that the issuance of these rules marks the establishment of trading rules for the “three major trading types” – medium- and long-term markets, spot markets and ancillary services – in an “important step” for power market reform.

INDUSTRY AND TRANSPORT: China has called for electrification to account for 10% of the transport sector’s total “end-use energy consumption” by 2027 and for battery electric vehicles (EVs) to make up the majority of new car sales by 2035, East Money reported. Separately, China has issued its first “green hydrogen certificate”, which was awarded to a “solar + grid power” hydrogen project, the Substack China Hydrogen Bulletin reported.

Tariffs, export controls and executive orders

THOUSAND-PERCENT TARIFFS: The US has “announced plans to impose tariffs” ranging from 41-3,521% on solar panels imported from south-east Asian countries, many of which are manufactured by Chinese companies in the region, BBC News reported. Chinese companies are likely to embrace relocating to countries other than the US, the New York Times said, as the “profit margins on solar exports to the US are high enough that relocation will be worth it, even with continuing tariff uncertainty”.

Subscribe: China Briefing
  • Sign up to Carbon Brief’s free “China Briefing” email newsletter. All you need to know about the latest developments relating to China and climate change. Sent to your inbox every Thursday.

MINERAL FLOWS: China’s exports of critical metals to the US have “plung[ed]” in recent weeks, with “shipments of several critical items halting entirely in March”, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported. The shortage of minerals, which are “vital for EVs, wind turbines” and other clean-energy technologies, the Financial Times reported, could “cause shutdowns in automotive production…if Beijing fully chokes off exports”. Meanwhile, China has criticised a new US executive order “aimed at stepping up deep-sea mining” to increase access to key minerals, saying the move “violates international law”, according to BBC News.

Spotlight 

China issues new ‘action plan’ to control HFC emissions

China issued a new “action plan” in April to control hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases (GHGs) that could significantly increase short-term climate warming.

In this issue, Carbon Brief assesses its potential impact on China’s GHG emissions.

Short-term pollutant

HFCs are man-made GHGs that can be several thousand times stronger at absorbing heat than carbon dioxide (CO2). One type, HFC-23, is 10,000 times more powerful than CO2.

They are used in a number of appliances, particularly as coolants for fridges and air conditioning.

Efforts to phase them out are governed by the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on ozone-depleting substances, which China ratified in 2021.

China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of HFCs, accounting for more than 70% of global production and 50% of consumption. It also produces and consumes the majority of the appliances that use them.

Its HFC emissions stood at 273m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2020, according to the government’s recently-submitted GHG inventory. This is equivalent to more than 2% of China’s CO2 emissions that year, which totalled 11bn tonnes.

Despite HFCs’ relatively low share in overall GHG emissions, their absorption strength necessitates their inclusion in climate strategies, says Sun Xiaopu, senior China counsel at the thinktank Institute For Governance and Sustainable Development (IGSD).

She told Carbon Brief that mitigating HFCs will help avoid “short-term global warming” and climate tipping points.

Action plan for 2030

The government’s plan sets targets and timelines for “gradually reducing” production and consumption of appliances using HFCs by 2030, as well as reducing or banning consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs).

These include lowering HFC production by 2029 by 10% from a 2024 baseline of 2bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e). Consumption would also be reduced 10% from a baseline of 900MtCO2e in this timeframe. This aligns with China’s obligations under the Kigali Amendment.

From 2026, China will “prohibit” the production of fridges and freezers using HFC refrigerants.

From 2029, it will ban the use of HFCs in most cooling systems, including air conditioners and other refrigeration equipment – prioritising the automotive, home appliance and industrial cooling sectors.

To enforce this, China will take measures such as requiring licences for manufacturing and consumption of controlled HFCs, improving monitoring of the production of HFC-23, as well as encouraging recycling of HFC refrigerants, and imposing import and export quotas for HFC refrigerants (although not the appliances that use them).

The plan will also introduce “stricter legal liabilities and higher financial penalties” to deter non-compliance, said Zheng Tan, programme officer of the industry programme at the climate nonprofit Energy Foundation.

He told Carbon Brief this is a “crucial step” in strengthening China’s existing HFC policy framework.

Tightening controls

Although China has controlled HFCs for some time, efforts accelerated after 2021, Hu Jianxin, a professor at Peking University’s College of Environmental Science and Engineering and Kigali Amendment negotiator, told Environment China.

China has shown willingness to act ambitiously on HFCs before. It issued a notice to freeze domestic production capacity for five widely-used HFCs in 2021, two years earlier than its international obligations required.

The government reported, prior to the action plan, that its HFC controls saw production quotas in 2024 fall by 404MtCO2e and consumption quotas fall by 262MtCO2e year-on-year.

There is scope for ambitious HFC action to continue, Sun told Carbon Brief.

Non-government bodies could use “vertical” communication channels, such as panels of technological, economic and scientific experts, to feed governments information, she added, helping them understand the feasibility of higher targets, “leapfrog obsolete technologies” or address roadblocks to adopting alternative solutions.

Hu noted that industry representatives have been consulted on HFC controls, which could encourage greater compliance – in contrast to reports of companies previously flouting ODS production controls.

Nevertheless, he told Environment China industry could “always do more”, adding that, while some sectors could stop using HFCs immediately, others may need decades – although he did not clarify which sectors, or why.

Sun speculates that this may be because the patents for these alternatives are held by non-Chinese companies, creating barriers for Chinese companies to discover new solutions.

The climate thinktank Institute for Global Decarbonisation Progress found that Chinese companies hold only 14% of patents for one such group of compounds, hydrofluoroolefins.

Beyond patents, it added, alternatives “often encounter challenges related to safety, cost or energy efficiency”.

According to Zheng, developing “effective monitoring, reporting and verification tools and capacity-building measures”, policy support to increase demand for less damaging alternatives and developing science-based standards will be important for enhancing compliance.

Furthermore, China’s action plan only applies to appliances using HFC refrigerants within China, Sun said. Companies making such appliances for export are not subject to its controls.

A report co-authored by IGSD and the appliance-focused nonprofit Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program found that Chinese companies, among others, are “dumping” inefficient air-conditioning units that use HFC refrigerants in south-east Asia.

Halting this trade, the report said, could “result in a reduction of over 1GtCO2e over 25 years”.

Watch, read, listen

CHINA 101: The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission held a congressional hearing on China’s energy landscape and its geopolitical implications, featuring a number of experts on China’s energy and climate developments.

GREEN FINANCE: The East Asia Forum published an article by Christoph Nedopil Wang, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, on how China can cooperate with other Asian countries to “set a global example for green economic growth”.

COOPERATION AND COMPETITION: The European Guanxi podcast explored how EU-China climate cooperation could navigate tensions around carbon taxes and EV pricing.

EMPTY BARRELS: A new report by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies outlined three potential scenarios for how China’s rising EV adoption will affect oil demand, finding it could fall by 600,000 barrels per day by 2030.


70%

The reduction in rainfall in the southern province of Guizhou since November last year, compared to average levels in previous years, as it battles a “lingering drought that has severely affected rural communities”, the state-run newspaper China Daily reported. Temperatures in April averaged 12.7C, marking the “second-highest national average temperature recorded” for the month since 1961, according to the state-supporting news outlet Global Times.


New science 

Construction and analysis of China’s carbon emission model based on machine learning

Scientific Reports

A new study used machine learning to calculate a possible carbon emissions trajectory for China through to 2030. It mapped China’s carbon emissions to nine explanatory variables, including the “proportion of coal in total energy consumption and urbanisation rate”. As a result, the model estimates that China’s carbon emissions will “level off from 2022 to 2028 and peak in 2028”, with annual emissions in 2030 “expected to be about 9.72bn tonnes”.

Changes in the annual cycle of surface air temperature over China in the 21st century simulated by CMIP6 models

Scientific Reports

New research examined the predictions of CMIP6 models for annual cycles of surface air temperature over China, “one of the most profound manifestations of global warming”. The study examined historical and future monthly temperatures under three different shared socioeconomic pathways. The study found that, under the model, the “amplitude” – or spread between the highest and lowest temperatures in a given year – would be narrower in future, although it noted that the patterns of likely temperature changes differ regionally, and particularly between northern and southern China.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

The post China Briefing 1 May 2025: Xi steadfast on climate; Solar and wind surpassed thermal power; Controlling short-term GHGs appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 1 May 2025: Xi steadfast on climate; Solar and wind surpassed thermal power; Controlling short-term GHGs

Continue Reading

Climate Change

UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire

Published

on

The United Nations Secretary-General and foreign ministers from the UK, France and Spain have blamed the deadly wildfires engulfing Europe on climate change, using the disaster to renew calls for faster cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.

António Guterres told journalists on Friday that the “climate crisis is in overdrive”, adding that global heat seen so far is just a “warm up act” as a phenomenon known as El Niño intensifies “adding fuel to a planet already on fire”.

A new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report published on Friday predicts that the weather pattern will grow into a “strong event” between now and October, increasing the risk of higher than normal temperatures across much of the world and disrupted rainfalls.

“That risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide,” Guterres said.

El Niño builds on top of an already warming world, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. A WMO scientist, who did not want to be named, told journalists that all the heatwaves and other climate impacts seen so far this year are “before the effects of El Niño are really kicking in at a global scale”.

Fossil fuellling the fires

Fires have broken out across much of Europe but are threatening the most people in the south-west of France near Bordeaux and in Central Spain near Madrid. Nearly a quarter of a million people have been evacuated in France with hundreds of homes destroyed while in Spain 80,000 people have had to leave their homes and at least 13 died in one village.

A scientific study published on Friday by the World Weather Attribution group found that man-made climate change made deadly fires in France twice as likely and those in Spain twenty times more likely. Smaller fires in the UK were not analysed by the study.

UN Climate Change leader Simon Stiell blamed fossil fuels for the fires, as well as storms in Chile and heatwaves in North America and Japan in recent weeks. “The climate alarm is blaring”, he said on Wednesday.

Guterres criticised new fossil fuel production projects and fossil fuel subsidies for causing hardship across the world. Discussing his speech, a senior UN official – who did not want to be named – said the subsidies amounted to trillions of US dollars a year and criticised pension funds and institutional investors, including insurance companies, for continuing to invest in fossil fuel projects.

The head of the United Nations Antonio Guterres (right) with the head of the UN’s climate arm Simon Stiell (left) at COP30 (Photo: Kiara Worth/UNFCCC)

Asked why world leaders and the public are not prioritising climate action, Guterres said they are distracted by wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, Sudan and elsewhere and sometimes forget “other aspects that are a sometimes even more dangerous threat”.

Also the fossil fuel industry and “some countries” are campaigning to pretend that climate change does not exist, he said, adding that the UN should be more active in “naming the situations as they are and the responsibilties as they are and mobilising the public opinion”.

After meetings in Paris and Madrid earlier in the week, the UK’s new foreign minister Ed Miliband issued joint statements with his French and Spanish counterparts – Jean-Noël Barrot and José Manuel Albares Bueno – calling on the world to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

They promised to do more to reduce emissions and protect their people and encouraged other governments to do the same.

The UK-French statement called on governments to publish UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global average temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

According to Climate Action Tracker, only three countries – the UK, Nigeria and Norway – have submitted NDCs with 2035 emissions reduction targets which are compatible with 1.5C. Fifty-two countries – including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have yet to submit an NDC at all.

Defending science

Beyond action on emissions, the ministers also intervened in an ongoing dispute over the timing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)’s next flagship assessment.

Miliband and Barrot’s statement said they “underline the importance” of scientific report feeding into governments’ next global stocktake of progress on climate action in two years’ time, calling it a “critical input” to that process.

The timing of this report has been a contentious issue in government negotiations at the IPCC and at June’s climate talks in Bonn. While a group of nations calling themselves the “friends of science” want the report before the stocktake, others like Saudi Arabia and India have argued that this would make the report of a worse quality and less inclusive of developing countries’ scientists.

Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks

The UK-Spanish statement weighed in less explicitly on this issue but said that they “recall the importance of scientific evidence and acknowledge the work of the IPCC in this respect.”

The British and French ministers said they would seek to accelerate reductions of emissions in methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, at COP31 in November. They encouraged governments “to work jointly to develop a marketplace for fossil fuels with near-zero methane intensity.”

Methane leaks from oil, gas and coal production are a major contributor to global warming. Over a 20-year period, methane traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.

Ed Miliband meets José Manuel Albares Bueno in Madrid on 29 July 2026. (Picture by Ed Morris / FCDO)

The UK and Spanish statement emphasised the importance of supporting the Global South and underlined the need to mobilise sustainable financing “at scale with the challenge we face”. The previous UK government, in which Miliband was energy minister, cut climate finance to developing countries to pay for increases in military spending.

The UK government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has yet to outline any major changes to climate finance in its two weeks in power but has announced it will convert some finance from grants to loans in order to free up money to subsidise bus travel in England.

More adaptation needed

Guterres said that “it is time to stop treating each disaster as an isolated tragedy and recognise the systemic risk that is unfolding before our eyes.” A recent study found that three-quarters of UK media reports about the British June heatwave did not mention climate change.

As well as reducing emissions, the UN Secretary-General called for measures to adapt vulnerable people to extreme heat. Specifically, he said that buildings should be built and retrofitted for extreme heat and that every city and country should have heat-health action plans and early warning systems. Over 250 cities have joined the UN’s ‘beat the heat’ initiative, he said.

The Portuguese diplomat called for governments and employers to do more to protect their workers from heat, criticising global fashion brands for not setting heat standards for the factories that supply them. “No one should have to risk their life to earn a living,” he said.

The post UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire appeared first on Climate Home News.

UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire

Continue Reading

Climate Change

‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

Published

on

In response to the federal government announcing its once-in-a-decade review of Australia’s Marine Parks Network, the following lines can be attributed to Elle Lawless, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:

“Greenpeace Australia Pacific welcomes today’s announcement that the Albanese Government will review Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Parks Network. This is a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity to strengthen our marine parks and ban industrial fishing in Australia’s marine protected areas.

“Australians would be appalled to know that more than half of Australia’s Marine Parks Network currently allows for extractive industries, like longlining, bottom trawling and oil and gas mining. These so-called ‘protected’ areas were designed to safeguard our beloved ocean wildlife and underwater ecosystems – that is what Australians expect. Damaging industrial industries should not be given a free pass to trawl, fish, drill or extract from our marine parks.”

“With the first Ocean COP just around the corner, and off the back of Australia’s move to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty earlier this year, the Australian government has a unique opportunity to ride the wave of this momentum and solidify itself as a true global ocean leader.

“Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling for industrial activities to be banned from our protected waters and for at least 30% of Australia’s ocean to be protected as ocean sanctuaries. This review presents a rare opportunity to create more ocean sanctuaries, true blue havens where ocean life can recover, thrive and repopulate the surrounding waters.”

—ENDS—

‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

Continue Reading

Climate Change

Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

Published

on

In recent days, prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators have shared charts on social media incorrectly implying that Europe is having its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026.

These include Dr Matthew Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and self-described “professor in exile”, who was recently appointed by the Trump administration to lead the US Global Change Research Program.

However, these charts paint a misleading picture as they are skewed by encompassing the entirety of Russia in the data – including the vast plains of Siberia.

These charts also use data that include fires that are deliberately lit to manage cropland, which is a declining practice across much of Europe.

In this factcheck, Carbon Brief shows that the area burned by wildfires across the European Union in 2026 is second only to 2022 for this time of year.

The latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) also shows that France has set a new modern record for area burned and Spain’s wildfire season is among the worst on record.

The fires have displaced more than a third of a million people across south-western Europe, while an impending heatwave has also raised fears of the fires worsening in the coming days.

‘Quietest year’

On 27 July, as wildfires raged across multiple European countries, former Conservative peer and climate-sceptic commentator Matt Ridley posted on Twitter that “2026 is the quietest year for wildfires in Europe by some distance”.

Misleading social media post by Mitt Ridley that says" er...2026 is the quietest year for wild fires un Europe by some distance."

Ridley, who sits on the academic advisory council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK-based climate-sceptic lobby group that refuses to reveal the sources of its funding, was responding to an article by Daily Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley.

Stanley’s column, headlined: “Climate change is real – and the right needs to get serious about it”, warned:

“This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now.”

Ridley included a chart from Our World In Data, showing the cumulative area burned by wildfires by week for Europe. The chart puts 2026 as having the smallest area for this time of year in a dataset going back to 2012.

Ridley’s post was widely shared by prominent rightwing figures – including Richard Tice, deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and multiple commentators.

Separately, Wielicki also shared a chart on Twitter to imply that wildfires in Europe are declining. Wielicki has previously claimed that the “science is not settled on climate change”.

The charts posted by Ridley and Wielicki both use data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). The GWIS category for “Europe” encompasses all the countries on the continent and includes the whole of Russia.

As a result, Russia accounts for about 74% of the area included in the GWIS definition of “Europe”.

Wildfires in Russia typically account for 80-90% of the burned area in the GWIS Europe dataset. In 2026, fires in Russia are substantially below average. Therefore, including Russia in this comparison creates the false impression that wildfire activity across Europe is unusually low.

Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, says that such claims are “highly misleading”, noting that “they rely on aggregating fire activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region”. He tells Carbon Brief:

“A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the current fires, the picture is very different.

“The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of climate conditions this year.”

In contrast, the EFFIS provides a subset of wildfire data specifically for the area covered by the 27 nations of the EU, which, therefore, excludes Russia.

Another difference between the two datasets is that GWIS monitors all fires – including those on agricultural land that are intentionally set alight. The burned area as measured by GWIS contains significant cropland area.

By contrast, EFFIS uses land-cover data and other information to filter specifically for forest fires.

Looking at the EU-only data from EFFIS reveals that Europe is far from having its “quietest” year. The bloc’s burned area, as of 29 July, is almost 435,000 hectares (ha) – second only to 2022 for this time of year.

The area burned by wildfires in the EU in 2026 by end of July is second only to 2022. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). Line graph shows 2026 burned area reaching over 400,000 hectares by late July, far exceeding the 2006-2025 average. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

Notably, Wielicki has actually continued to post charts based on GWIS data, even after acknowledging that “includ[ing] all of Russia, including vast areas of Siberia…isn’t a good proxy for Europe”.

French fires

Even looking at EU-wide data misses the scale of this year’s wildfires for some individual countries.

The chart below shows the surge in burned area in France since mid-July.

For much of the first half of the year, the country was having a wildfire season that was only slightly above average in terms of total burned area. However, a notable uptick began in the first week of July.

The third week of the month saw France break its previous cumulative annual record by more than 19,000ha. That gap has widened as the fires continue to burn; as of 29 July, the cumulative burned area in France during 2026 was nearly 24,700ha above the previous record.

France's wildfires in 2026 are the most widespread in modern records. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). A line chart shows 2026 burned area sharply rising by August to over 90,000 hectares, well above the 2006-2025 range maximum of around 65,000 and average of 15,000. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

The fires in France follow a record-breaking June heatwave that “dried out vegetation across the region, allowing fires to spread quickly”, wrote the New York Times.

On 27 July, French president Emmanuel Macron called a “crisis cabinet meeting” in order to address the fires “ravaging several areas of south-west France”, said France 24.

More than 220,000 people have been evacuated due to the Gironde fire, west of Bordeaux, in “what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation”, reported the Associated Press.

In the Conversation, Cunningham and two other University of Tasmania researchers write that evacuation orders “protec[t] human lives, but makes it more likely houses and other structures will burn if there’s no one to defend them”. They add:

“There is little doubt climate change has made France and Spain’s wildfires worse. They represent yet another reason to redouble our efforts to tackle climate change and stabilise our climate.”

Central Spain scorched

While Spain’s fire season has not broken records in the same way that France’s has, it is on track to be among the worst since EFFIS began reporting data in 2006.

The chart below shows the rapid increase in burned area in Spain since 8 July. The latest data from EFFIS reveal that, as of 29 July, Spain has almost matched its previous record at this point in the year. It is also nearly five times the average area burned for this time of year.

Line chart titled "Spain's 2026 wildfires are among the worst in modern records", subtitle "Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares)". By August, 2026 burned area surges past 200,000 hectares, rising far above the 2006-2025 average and near the upper historical range. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

In Spain, the wildfires have been concentrated in the central part of the country, near Madrid.

BBC News reported that the fires outside the capital have burned “an area more than twice as large as the city itself”.

Nearly 90,000 people were forced from their homes in central Spain by the fires, said the Associated Press.

Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, called the fires a “painful expression” of climate change.

Meanwhile, the UK, French and Spanish governments have issued joint statements this week in response to the fires. The UK/Spain statement begins:

“This summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life.”

The post Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com