Note: This post distills and extends ideas from our Nov. 1 post, The Carbon-Tax Nimby Cure.
From the East Coast to Idaho’s high desert, big green-energy investments are foundering.
Composite of (top) first U.S. SMR complex (NuScale facility, artist’s depiction) and (below) offshore wind farm (Orsted’s UK Hornsea facility). Neither was in line for more than token revenues tied to displaced carbon emissions. Both have been cancelled.
Just in the past week, Danish wind giant Orsted scuttled the 2,248-megawatt Ocean Wind farm it was developing off New Jersey’s Atlantic coast, while NuScale scrapped its planned 462-MW complex of six 77-MW small modular reactors (SMRs) near Idaho Falls.
Both ventures were viewed as door-openers to new large-scale U.S. carbon-free green power. They would have contributed mightily to decarbonizing their respective grids, taking the place of fossil fuel electricity now spewing nearly 4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year.
Their demise, along with dimming prospects for Equinor’s 2,076-MW Empire Wind farm off Long Island, NY, suggest that the U.S. is moving away from, not toward, the vaunted crossover point at which big green-energy investments will come seamlessly to fruition fast and hard enough to rapidly decarbonize our grids.
The 1983 title denoted “hard energy” facilities like giant power stations and LNG terminals. Nowadays it also seems apt for big green-energy projects.
The causes are no mystery: supply bottlenecks, spiraling materials costs, 40-year-high interest rates, Nimby obstruction. Not all of these will necessarily persist, but right now the combination looks daunting. Big energy projects, once derided as “brittle” by energy guru Amory Lovins, are rife for negative synergies. Nimbys have little trouble stretching project schedules and imposing punishing interest costs, particularly on big wind farms, a phenomenon we wrote about a week ago in The Carbon-Tax Nimby Cure.
Alas, Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act is not a panacea. IRA incentives are targeted primarily at EV’s, rooftop solar, heat pumps, batteries and factories. They are not going to refloat stalled clean power projects. That push will have to come from somewhere else.
What a Robust Carbon Price Could Do for Green Energy
A robust carbon price could provide much of that push. Not a token price like RGGI’s $15, which is the per-metric-ton value of the 4Q 2023 permit price in the northeast US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative electricity generation cap-and-trade program; but $50 or more, preferably $100.
Of late I’ve been calculating how much profit a robust carbon price could inject into clean-energy bottom lines. The numbers are so astounding that I checked and rechecked them. Here’s one: A $100/ton carbon price in NY would allow Empire Wind to charge an additional $200 million or more each year for its output. How? Because the tax would raise the “bid price” for natural gas-generated electricity, the dominant power source and thus the price-setter on the downstate grid by so much — $30 to $35 per MWh, I estimate — that Empire Wind’s 7.25 million MWh’s a year could extract an additional $240 million in its power purchase agreement with the NY grid operator.
Lots to see here. The dollar figures, including the $/MWh bottom lines, are derived off-screen. Added revenues will be less if gas generators lower their grid prices somewhat, but will be more if the methane fee enacted as part of the 2022 IRA comes into play.
Same goes for NuScale. I estimate that its Idaho SMRs could command an additional $100 million a year (less than for Empire Wind because the project is smaller). This additional value equates to $29 per MWh. With that project’s cancellation being chalked up to a $31/MWh climb in costs since 2021 to $89 per MWh, as per a report by the anti-nuclear Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, that additional value is is no small thing.
These added payments are not “subsidies” to the clean-energy providers. They arise by slashing ongoing subsidies now enjoyed by fossil fuel providers and processors — in this case the methane-gas extractors and the electricity generators that burn the fuel — through carbon pricing. The added payments will come about as the carbon price forces the gas generators to raise their sale price to the grid (to recoup their higher price to purchase the gas), which then creates room for Empire (or NuScale) to raise *its* prices.
Every cent of the carbon tax revenues will remain fully available for public purposes, whether to support low-income ratepayers, or invest in more clean energy or community remediation, or, our preference at CTC, as “dividend” checks to households. None of it needs to be earmarked to Empire or NuScale for them or other clean-power generators to rebuild their profit margins.
Adios, Nimbys?
The Not In My Back Yard crowd wasn’t an apparent factor in NuScale’s downfall. (“Regulatory creep” was, but that’s a story for another time, not to mention one I dissected 40 years ago in the peer-reviewed journal Nuclear Safety.) But they certainly were for Ocean Wind in NJ and will be in NY if Empire Wind goes down the drain.
But here’s the thing: Not only would the added revenue allowed by the carbon price help return Empire Wind to the black. It would give Equinor, the developer, the wherewithal to spread so much largesse among the residents of Long Beach, LI (my hometown!) that they could subdue the Nimbys who have been able to hold up permitting by spreading scare stories about the routing of the project’s power cables underground. Nimby-ism solved, not by suasion (a fool’s errand) but by motivating the masses in the middle who evidently require more tangible inducements than saving the climate (or their beaches or homes).
The Full Picture
Ocean Wind, Empire Wind and NuScale are just several examples of carbon-free projects that could again pencil out beautifully with robust carbon pricing. The question remains, how do we get there?
The point of this new analysis isn’t so much to tie clean energy to carbon pricing, but to enlist the political power and prestige of clean-energy entrepreneurs and developers on the side of carbon-tax advocacy.
As we noted in our previous (Nov. 1) post, during headier carbon-pricing times (2007 to 2011) the Carbon Tax Center attempted, alongside allies like Friends of the Earth, the Friends Committee on National Legislation, and Citizens Climate Lobby, to induce the American Wind Energy Association, the Solar Energy Industry Association and other green-tech trade groups to join us in advocating carbon taxing. We put out similar feelers to the Nuclear Energy Institute and the American Nuclear Energy Council. The U.S. nuke lobby should have been an absolute no-brainer, insofar as keeping extant reactors solvent could have been aided mightily by carbon taxes that monetized the climate value of nuclear power plants’ combustion-free electricity production.
2010 redux: Equation at left signifying “Renewable Energy cheaper than Fossil Fuels” was a cleantech meme. Button on right, created by then-CTC senior policy analyst James Handley, was less prevalent. Time to meld the two?
No dice. We weren’t granted even one conversation with the nuclear folks. The wind and solar people, for their part, insisted that unending cost reductions through increased scale and efficiency, along with green power’s inherent magical appeal, would, they insisted, propel them past any obstacle. Why besmirch our Randian aura, they seemed to say, with energy taxes when our tech is going to usher in energy abundance that spares earth’s climate?
Things look different now. Big, carbon-free power ventures — the ones that everyone from governors and ambassadors to scientists and schoolkids are counting on to get us off fossil fuels — are beset by troubles: financial, logistical, cultural.
Without genuine carbon pricing that accords clean energy the economic rewards to which it’s entitled, large-scale green energy is guaranteed to come up short. As we asked in that earlier post: Will clean-power developers look at this week’s NJ and Idaho losses, among others, and decide that they need a carbon tax every bit as much as the climate does?
Carbon Footprint
Stay in the game: What CSRD means for supplier carbon footprints in 2026
For years, sustainability reporting sat squarely on the shoulders of large corporations. Smaller suppliers were rarely pulled into the process, and certainly not at a detailed data level. That landscape is changing fast. With the introduction of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), big companies are now expected to publish structured, verifiable climate information—and they can only do this with their suppliers’ support.
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Carbon Footprint
Tesla Tests Driverless Robotaxis in Austin While Analysts Predict 1 Million by 2035 Growth, Sending Stocks Up
Tesla (TSLA) is making big progress in testing driverless robotaxis on public roads and attracting attention from analysts and investors. The company started testing its self-driving cars in Austin, Texas, on December 15. No human safety monitor was on board. This was a milestone that Tesla’s leaders said would happen by year’s end. This shift represents a key part of the EV giant’s long‑term strategy for autonomous vehicles and future mobility services.
At the same time, Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley, are issuing forecasts about Tesla’s robotaxi plans and their potential impact on the company’s future. Analysts calculate the scale of robotaxi fleets and potential valuation effects over the next decade.
These changes have kept Tesla’s stock in the spotlight for investors and the market, even with challenges in electric vehicle sales growth.
Driverless Robotaxis Hit Austin Streets
Tesla (TSLA stock) began testing its self-driving cars on public roads in Austin, Texas. There were no human drivers or safety monitors in the front seats. CEO Elon Musk confirmed that fully driverless tests are happening. He sees this as an important step toward commercial operation.
Earlier in 2025, Tesla had already launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin using modified Model Y vehicles. Initially, these vehicles included a human safety monitor in the passenger seat to observe system performance.
Over the months, Tesla grew its service area and fleet size. By December 2025, reports showed about 31 active robotaxis operating in the city.
Recent tests without monitors show progress. However, they are still for internal validation, not for daily commercial use. Tesla confirmed that tests aren’t open to paying customers yet. The company hasn’t provided a specific date for when fully autonomous rides will be available to the public.
The Technology Behind Tesla’s Autonomous Effort
Tesla’s autonomous driving push relies on its Full Self‑Driving (FSD) software and onboard sensors. The FSD system can manage various driving situations. It uses cameras, radar inputs, and neural network processing. This differs from some competitors that rely on additional sensors such as LiDAR for redundancy.
In June 2025, Tesla shared its Q2 tech update. The company boosted AI training by adding tens of thousands of GPUs at its Gigafactory in Texas. This expansion supports improvements in FSD, where the company reported its first autonomous delivery. A Model Y drove itself without human help for 30 minutes.
Vehicles with FSD software need regulatory approval to drive on their own. In the Austin pilot, removing physical safety monitors marks progress toward that goal. Achieving fully reliable, unsupervised autonomy is still a challenge. This is true, especially when it comes to safety standards and different road conditions.
- SEE MORE on TESLA:
- Tesla Rolls Out Full Self-Driving (FSD) in Australia & New Zealand: What Drivers and Investors Need to Know
- TSLA Stock Slides After Tesla Unveils ‘Affordable’ Model Y and Model 3 — Investor Confidence Wavers
- Tesla (TSLA Stock) Sparks $2.1B Samsung Battery Deal as Global EV Demand Charges Ahead
Wall Street Eyes Tesla’s Robotaxi Potential, Sending Stock Near Record Highs
Tesla’s autonomous ambitions are closely watched by financial analysts. Morgan Stanley just shared forecasts that say Tesla could greatly grow its robotaxi presence in the next 10 years.
The bank says Tesla might have 1 million robotaxis on the road by 2035. These will operate in various cities as part of its autonomous fleet plan.
Morgan Stanley’s analysis sees active robotaxi units growing in 2026. However, the first fleets will be small compared to the long-term plan. The forecasts show the possible size of the autonomous vehicle market. They also highlight Tesla’s role in this growth. However, there are uncertainties tied to technology and regulations.
Stock markets have reacted to these developments. Tesla’s stock price nearly hit record highs. It rose almost 5% during trading sessions. Investors were excited about progress in driverless testing and the promise of future autonomous revenue. Analysts say Tesla’s value might go up more if its autonomous services and AI products perform well.

Tesla’s Vision for Autonomous Mobility Services
Tesla’s robotaxi initiative fits into its broader vision of mobility services and artificial intelligence (AI)‑driven transport. The company plans to launch purpose-built autonomous vehicles, like the Cybercab. These vehicles won’t have traditional controls, such as steering wheels or pedals. They aim for mass production in April 2026.
Tesla sees a future where owners can add their cars to a decentralized robotaxi network. This could boost fleet availability and usage. This strategy could shift parts of Tesla’s revenue profile away from vehicle sales toward recurring service revenues if adopted at scale. The global robotaxi market could reach over $45 billion in 2030, as shown below.

Analysts say that major technical, regulatory, and safety issues still stand in the way of robotaxis operating widely and making a profit. Building public trust, meeting varied local regulations, and demonstrating consistent safety across different road environments will be key factors in future deployment.
Tesla vs Competitors and Safety Regulations
Tesla is not alone in the autonomous vehicle race. Other companies, such as Alphabet’s Waymo, owned by Alphabet, have been operating fully autonomous services in multiple cities for several years and continue to expand.
The company operates about 2,500 robotaxis across multiple cities. Waymo has logged millions of paid autonomous rides and already meets higher autonomy standards in some regions. In comparison, Tesla operates around 31 robotaxis in Austin, with plans to expand to several major U.S. cities by 2026.

Tesla chose camera-centric sensors over multi-sensor arrays. This decision shows their focus on scalability and cost. Critics and some experts argue that adding LiDAR or other sensors could improve safety and performance under challenging conditions.
Regulators also play an important role. In some states, pilot autonomously driven services are permitted under special testing allowances. Widespread commercial use needs approval from both state and federal agencies. This ensures that vehicles meet safety and operational standards.
What’s Next for Tesla’s Driverless Fleets
Tesla’s move to test robotaxis without onboard safety monitors in Austin marks a clear technical milestone, though it is not yet a commercial service. The company’s next steps will likely focus on scaling test fleets, improving software robustness, and navigating regulatory approvals to allow expanded operations in other cities in 2026 and beyond.
Morgan Stanley and other analysts think robotaxis might play a big role in Tesla’s growth. They could boost service revenue as traditional vehicle sales slow down. However, forecasts at this stage remain based on long‑range assumptions about adoption, pricing, and regulatory landscapes.
Investor sentiment has been mixed. Stock movements show excitement about tech advances but also worry about short-term vehicle sales and profit pressures in the auto industry.
Overall, Tesla’s autonomous ambitions continue to shape its corporate strategy and public profile. The speed of robotaxi rollout, along with improvements in Full Self-Driving software and AI, will be key to seeing if the company can shift from an EV maker to a driverless mobility platform.
The post Tesla Tests Driverless Robotaxis in Austin While Analysts Predict 1 Million by 2035 Growth, Sending Stocks Up appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Environmental Groups Urge U.S. Congress to Pause Data Center Growth as Federal AI Rule Looms
More than 230 environmental and public-interest groups asked Congress to halt approvals for and construction of new data centers. They want a temporary national moratorium until federal rules address energy use, water needs, local impacts, and emissions. The request came from Food & Water Watch and was signed by national and local groups across the country.
They said that the fast growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud services is putting big new demands on local grids and water systems. They also said current federal rules do not cover the environmental or social impacts linked to data center growth.
Why the Groups Want a Moratorium
Data centers are using more electricity each year. U.S. data centers consumed an estimated 183 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2024. That was about 4% of all U.S. power use. Some national studies project that number could rise to 426 TWh by 2030, which would be about 6.7% to 12% of U.S. electricity, depending on growth rates.
Global data centers used around 415 TWh of electricity in 2024. Analysts expect double-digit annual growth as AI loads increase.

AI-ready data center capacity is projected to grow by about 33% per year from 2023 to 2030 in mid-range market scenarios. Industry groups say global data center capacity could reach over 220 gigawatts (GW) by 2030.
Some groups warn that data center CO₂ emissions might hit 1% of global emissions by 2030. That’s about the same as a mid-size industrial country’s yearly emissions. They say the growth rate is rising faster than the reductions in many other sectors.
An excerpt from their letter reads:
“The rapid expansion of data centers across the United States, driven by the generative artificial intelligence (AI) and crypto boom, presents one of the biggest environmental and social threats of our generation. This expansion is rapidly increasing demand for energy, driving more fossil fuel pollution, straining water resources, and raising electricity prices across the country. All this compounds the significant and concerning impacts AI is having on society, including lost jobs, social instability, and economic concentration.”
When AI Growth Collides With the U.S. Power Grid
Several utilities have linked new power plant plans to data center growth. In Virginia, the largest power company and grid planners see data centers as a key reason for new infrastructure.
In Louisiana, Entergy moved forward with a new gas-plant plan expected to support a large hyperscale data center campus. These cases show how utilities now size new plants with AI-related load in mind.
Some utilities believe these expansions might increase local electricity rates by a few percentage points. This depends on how costs are shared. Regulators in various areas say that extra load can increase distribution and transmission costs. This might lead to higher bills for households.
Several grid operators also report congestion or long waiting lines for new power connections. Northern Virginia, Texas, and parts of the Pacific Northwest now have interconnection queues. In these areas, data center projects make up a large part of the pending requests.
Water Use and Siting Concerns
Water demand is another point of conflict. Many large data centers rely on water-cooled systems. A typical water-cooled data center may use around 1.9 liters of water per kWh. More advanced or dry-cooled facilities may use as little as 0.2 liters per kWh, but these designs are not yet common.
One medium-sized data center can use about 110 million gallons of water per year. Large hyperscale sites can use several hundred million gallons annually, and, in some cases, even more. Global estimates suggest data centers could use over 1 trillion liters of water per year by 2030 if growth continues.

These demands have triggered local resistance. In parts of Arizona, California, and Georgia, community groups have raised concerns about water use during drought periods. In some cases, local governments paused or limited data center approvals. A single campus can use more water each year than some small towns.
Trump Plans Executive Order on AI Regulation
While groups push for limits on new data centers, the White House is also preparing an executive order that would reshape AI policy nationwide, as reported by CNN. President Donald Trump has said he plans to issue an order that would block states from creating their own AI rules.
The administration aims to create one national standard for AI. This way, companies won’t have to deal with different state regulations.
Drafts of the plan say the order may tell federal agencies to challenge state AI laws. This could happen through lawsuits or funding limits if the laws clash with federal policy. Supporters say a unified national rule could help U.S. companies compete globally and reduce compliance costs.
State leaders and consumer protection groups argue the opposite. They say states have a legal right to pass their own rules on privacy, safety, and data use. Some governors argue that an executive order cannot override state laws without action by Congress. Minnesota lawmakers, for example, continue to write their own AI bills focused on deepfakes and child-safety concerns.
The debate adds another layer to the data center issue. AI systems require massive computing power. If AI keeps growing quickly, analysts expect even heavier pressure on local grids and water systems. Advocacy groups say that this makes federal regulation more urgent.
Scale of AI and Hyperscale Build-out
The U.S. is in the middle of a major build-out of hyperscale and AI-optimized data centers. Industry trackers report that hundreds of new hyperscale facilities are planned or already under construction through 2030. Many of these campuses are designed specifically for AI training and inference workloads.
Major cloud and social media companies have sharply increased capital spending to support this build-out. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and other major platforms, combined spending on AI chips, data centers, and network upgrades reached hundreds of billions of dollars per year in the mid-2020s. These spending levels signal how fast demand is growing.
Some experts track how major technology firms have changed over time. For example, one big cloud provider said its data center electricity use has more than doubled in the last ten years. This increase happened as its global reach grew. This gives a sense of how long-term trends feed current infrastructure pressures.
AI also adds new layers of demand. Training one large AI model can use millions of kilowatt-hours of electricity. Operating a popular chatbot can require many megawatt-hours per day, especially at peak traffic.
Research shows that processing one billion AI queries uses as much electricity as powering tens of thousands of U.S. homes for a day. This varies with the model’s size and efficiency.

Cities and States Move Faster Than Washington
Local governments have acted faster than federal agencies to respond to public concerns. More than 100 counties and cities have passed temporary moratoria, zoning limits, or new environmental rules since 2023. Examples include parts of Georgia, Oregon, Arizona, and Virginia, where communities plan to evaluate energy and water impacts before approving new projects.
Advocacy groups also argue that federal standards have not kept up. The U.S. does not have national energy-efficiency rules for private data centers. It also does not require detailed, mandatory reporting on energy, water, or emissions for the sector. The groups pushing for a moratorium say Congress must update these policies before more sites break ground.
What the Debate Means for 2026 and Beyond
Congress will review the environmental groups’ request in the coming months. Lawmakers are expected to weigh economic benefits against rising tensions around energy, water, and local resources. At the same time, the White House may release its AI executive order, which could shape how states and companies set their own rules.
With rapid AI growth, rising electricity use, and expanding data center construction, both debates are likely to continue through 2026. Many experts say long-term solutions will require national standards, better reporting, and closer coordination between states, utilities, and federal agencies.
The post Environmental Groups Urge U.S. Congress to Pause Data Center Growth as Federal AI Rule Looms appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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