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Canada’s Carbon Pricing Reset in 2026: Will Industry Step Up or Stall Climate Progress?

Canada is at a key moment in its fight against climate change. Carbon pricing has been the central tool used to cut emissions, but recent policy changes and differences across provinces have created uncertainty.

This article examines how Canada’s carbon pricing system works now. It covers expert concerns and what the key federal review in 2026 might mean for both industry and the country’s journey toward a lower-carbon future.

How Canada Prices Pollution

Canada uses carbon pricing to encourage companies and people to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Under that system, there are two main parts.

For ordinary people and small businesses, there used to be a “fuel charge” or carbon tax on fossil fuels. For large industrial emitters, there is a program called the Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS).

Under the OBPS, factories or facilities that produce a lot of emissions get a limit based on how much they produce. If they emit more than their limit, they must pay; if they emit less, they earn credits that they can sell or use later.

This approach aims to reduce carbon pollution while trying to protect industries that compete globally. The goal is to cancel out the risk that companies might move to other countries with weaker climate rules.

From Gas Pumps to Smokestacks: A Major Policy Shift

In 2025, the federal government made important changes. It removed the “consumer-facing” carbon tax — the fuel charge — effective April 1, 2025. This means people pay no extra carbon tax when buying gasoline or heating fuel.

Canada carbon price per tonne yearly
Source: RBN Energy LLC website

Instead, the focus shifted more clearly onto industrial carbon pricing. The government said it would review the carbon pricing “benchmark” in 2026. This review could change how industrial carbon pricing operates.

A recent analysis by ClearBlue Markets shows that Canada’s carbon pricing for industry is now fragmented. Fragmentation has caused uncertainty. This is a problem for companies that need stable cost signals before they invest in cleaner technology.

The ClearBlue report stated:

“The federal benchmark review will therefore trigger extensive engagement between the federal government and the provinces, aimed at aligning key benchmark elements such as coverage, pricing stringency, and competitiveness protections. Negotiations are likely to be complex and politically charged, particularly with provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, which have already taken strong positions. These types of unilateral decisions reflect ongoing tensions and highlight the difficulty of achieving a truly aligned national approach.”

Carbon pricing today: A patchwork across Canada

Because Canada is large and its provinces have different rules, carbon pricing for industry is not the same everywhere. ClearBlue Markets shows that credit prices—what companies pay or earn—vary a lot by province or system.

Here are specific examples:

In Alberta, the Environmental Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting Agency has seen a big drop in credits under its Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Program (TIER). Despite a compliance price of CAD 95 per tonne, market credits trade at around CAD 18 per tonne. This shows a credit surplus and weak demand.

In British Columbia (B.C.), the new B.C. Output-Based Pricing System (B.C. OBPS) began to be applied recently. Credits are trading at about CAD 65 per tonne, a discount compared with the regulatory level of CAD 80.

In Ontario, the Emissions Performance Standards (EPS) system governs industrial emissions. Because the program does not allow offset credits, supply is tighter — units (EPUs) recently traded at around CAD 72 per tonne.

In areas where the federal OBPS still applies, like some territories and small provinces, cheap carbon offset credits from Alberta’s TIER have lowered prices. Now, they can be as low as about CAD 37.50 per tonne.

Canada carbon prices per jurisdiction
Data source: ClearBlue Markets

The true cost of carbon emissions differs greatly by industry and province. The federal government aims to raise the carbon price to CAD 170 per tonne by 2030 for direct pricing systems.

The 2026 Showdown: Can Canada Fix Its Carbon Market?

The upcoming review of the federal benchmark is seen as a turning point. It could lead to stronger, more aligned carbon pricing across all provinces. As ClearBlue Markets notes, the review may address issues such as:

  • Align different provincial systems under a common design. This way, credits and compliance will act more alike.
  • Improving transparency in reporting credit inventories, trades, and emission reductions.
  • Possibly introducing a “floor price” — a minimum cost for carbon credits — to avoid extreme price drops like those seen in some programs.
  • Setting a long-term carbon price path past 2030 helps industries plan investments more clearly. This is especially important for clean technologies.

All of these could make carbon pricing more predictable and effective. If the review doesn’t meet expectations, patchwork and uncertainty may persist. This could weaken the carbon price signal and confuse investment in clean technology.

This patchwork of provincial and federal carbon pricing programs has created a corresponding patchwork of compliance offset markets. The image below shows how these offset markets are distributed across Canada.

Canada Offset Credit Issuances
Source: ClearBlue Markets

Global Pressure Is Rising: Europe Could Hit Canada with Carbon Tariffs

One major external risk comes from the global trade environment. Starting in 2026, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impact imports based on their carbon emissions.

For Canadian exporters, this raises a key question:

  • Will EU authorities accept the compliance credits or offsets generated under Canada’s various carbon pricing systems as evidence of “carbon price paid”?

If not, Canadian exports might face extra tariffs. This could double the carbon cost or hurt competitiveness.

This makes it even more important for Canada to standardize and strengthen its carbon pricing framework before 2026. This is to ensure that its pricing and credits are recognized internationally. Otherwise, Canadian industries like steel, aluminum, and cement might find it hard to compete. This is especially true in markets with strict climate-related import rules.

Strengths and Challenges of Canada’s Carbon Pricing

Carbon pricing works to link environmental costs with economic decision-making. For large emitters, it encourages improved efficiency. Carbon pricing revenue, especially from the OBPS, can fund clean energy projects. It also supports carbon capture and investments in low-carbon infrastructure.

A recent evaluation by the government highlights that industrial carbon pricing helps reduce emissions with minimal impact on households.

But there are major challenges too. The system varies by province, so many industries might have low carbon costs. This means there is little motivation for real change.

A 2022 report from the Office of the Auditor General of Canada (OAG) found that weak rules in provincial large-emitter programs lower the impact of carbon pricing. Also, the unclear use of carbon revenues and the long-term price outlook have made some firms hesitant to invest in cleaner technologies.

The Stakes: Canada’s Climate Credibility and Industrial Future

The 2026 benchmark review could reshape Canada’s carbon pricing for decades. Key signs to watch are:

  • Whether the government sets a new, clear carbon price path beyond 2030 — possibly up to 2050, that would give firms confidence to invest in long-term clean solutions.
  • Whether provincial carbon pricing systems become more harmonized. This means similar rules, credit prices, and transparency everywhere.
  • Introducing a price floor or other methods can help prevent deeply discounted carbon credits. This ensures a strong carbon price signal.
  • Will Canadian industrial credits and compliance be set up to gain recognition under global systems like CBAM? This could help keep Canadian exports competitive.

Canada’s carbon pricing, especially for industry, is at a crossroads. The removal of the consumer carbon tax in 2025 reflects a shift toward focusing on industrial emissions. Meanwhile, the upcoming 2026 benchmark review offers a chance to make this system stronger, fairer, and more predictable.

However, much depends on political and regulatory will. Without clear pricing, rules, and long-term certainty, the carbon price might be too weak. This puts Canada’s climate goals and global competitiveness at risk. But if the government and provinces act quickly, carbon pricing can help Canada shift to a low-carbon economy while also keeping industries competitive.

The post Canada’s Carbon Pricing Reset in 2026: Will Industry Step Up or Stall Climate Progress? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Joby Aviation’s 2027 Vision: Four Electric Air Taxis per Month and Stronger Emission Cuts Amid Advanced Air Mobility Boom

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Joby Aviation is moving into a new phase of growth and confidence. The company, which is developing electric air taxis for commercial passenger travel, announced major investments to double its manufacturing capacity in the United States. By 2027, Joby plans to build four aircraft per month, showing how serious it is about leading the future of advanced air mobility.

This expansion aligns with rising global support for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. With strong demand, government backing, growing partnerships, and accelerating certification progress, Joby is positioning itself at the front of a rapidly emerging industry.

Joby’s New Strategy: Building More Aircraft, Faster

Joby’s production growth plan is based on real industry momentum. The company already operates manufacturing facilities in California and Ohio, both of which will support the production ramp-up.

Recently, Joby revealed that it has over $1 billion in potential aircraft and service sales, highlighting confidence from customers and governments. At the same time, support from U.S. authorities has strengthened. The country’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, announced in September, aims to speed up the launch of air taxi services.

A Presidential Executive Order has directed the Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to allow mature eVTOL aircraft to begin operations in select cities as early as next year, even before full certification is completed.

According to Joby founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt, this moment marks the beginning of a “new golden age of aviation.” He believes Joby will soon be one of the few companies in the world capable of building aircraft at high volumes while maintaining quality and safety.

Given the maturity of its air taxi program and the level of market demand, Joby says now is the right time to invest in equipment, facilities, and skilled workers. The company is already purchasing new capital equipment and expanding operations to support non-stop, round-the-clock manufacturing in California.

In July, Joby completed an expanded factory in Marina, California. In October, it began producing propeller blades in Ohio, ahead of bigger manufacturing activities planned in the state. These milestones show that Joby is not just announcing plans—it is actively executing them.

Toyota Partnership Strengthens Manufacturing Power

A key pillar of Joby’s growth strategy is its long-term collaboration with Toyota Motor Corporation. In May 2025, Joby closed the first $250 million tranche of a strategic investment from Toyota. Both companies are now finalizing a strategic manufacturing alliance designed to support Joby’s production ramp-up.

Toyota brings decades of expertise in high-volume, precision manufacturing, something that could be a game-changer as aviation transitions toward electric mobility. Joby has credited Toyota’s knowledge and guidance as essential to scaling up safely and efficiently.

Together, the companies share a vision: making electric air taxis a reliable, trusted part of future transportation.

Certification Progress and Flight Readiness

Joby is also moving steadily toward FAA certification. The company recently began power-on testing of the first FAA-conforming aircraft built for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA). This is the final and most critical stage of FAA Type Certification, during which FAA test pilots will fly Joby’s aircraft themselves. Four additional FAA-conforming aircraft required for TIA are already under production.

Meanwhile, Joby ended 2025 on a strong note with its final international flight demonstration of the year at Japan’s Fuji Speedway. Conducted in partnership with Toyota, the campaign included 14 piloted flights and marked Joby’s fourth major global demonstration of the year.

This capped a year filled with progress. In 2025 alone, Joby completed more than 850 flights across its fleet, logging over 50,000 miles, a 2.6× increase from the previous year. This expanding flight activity is essential for collecting real-world performance data, validating design decisions, and proving reliability.

Proving Real-World Operations Around the Globe

Joby’s aircraft flew in three major markets in 2025—the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and Japan. Highlights included:

  • 41 flights at the World Expo 2025 in Osaka
  • 21 flights in the UAE during environmental and operational testing
  • Active participation in the Dubai Airshow, where Joby was the only eVTOL aircraft to perform a full week of flights

Joby also completed point-to-point flights between public airports, including routes between Marina and Monterey and Marina and Salinas in California. In the UAE, Joby completed the first piloted point-to-point air taxi flight from Margham to Al Maktoum International Airport.

The company also advanced future technologies. It successfully flew a turbine-electric demonstrator aircraft, only three months after first revealing the concept, proving how fast it can innovate. Meanwhile, Joby’s Superpilot™ autonomous flight technology logged over 7,000 miles during a major U.S. defense exercise.

Overall, Joby’s aircraft covered more than 9,000 miles in 2025, supporting over 4,900 test objectives. This data is now feeding directly into final FAA certification activities and helping finalize operating and maintenance manuals.

Cleaner Growth in the Skies: Joby Expands While Cutting Emissions

Joby sees urban air mobility as a strong complement to existing transportation, offering faster, quieter, and cleaner travel. Its fully electric air taxi reduces emissions per passenger, and in 2024, the company also demonstrated hydrogen-electric flight, showing potential for longer-range operations.

joby aviation
Source: JOBY

Despite a 29% rise in energy use due to manufacturing growth, Joby cut emissions by 44% in 2024 by relying on renewable electricity.

  • Renewable electricity use increased 19% from 2023
  • 84% of facility power came from renewables, including 3% from on-site solar
  • Employees used 268,355 kWh for EV charging, replacing about 7,182 gallons of gasoline

Thus, the company continues to scale while lowering its environmental footprint.

JOBY AVIATION EMISSIONS
Source: JOBY

AAM: A Growing Market With Huge Potential

Joby’s expansion is happening within a booming global Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market. Industry forecasts suggest:

  • Analysts say global AAM revenue could reach $1.76 billion by the end of 2025, with some estimates much higher. By 2035, the market could soar to $90.3 billion, growing at more than 20% CAGR
  • Urban Air Mobility (UAM), a key segment, could jump from $6.59 billion in 2025 to $126 billion by 2035

Infrastructure development, including vertiports and air traffic systems, will help unlock this growth.

URBAN AIR MOBILITY AAM
Source: Future Market Insights

At the same time, Joby’s own market outlook is strong. The Joby eVTOL aircraft market was valued at $1.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $13.8 billion by 2033, growing at a robust 28.7% CAGR. As cities face congestion and pollution challenges, clean electric air taxis are emerging as a real solution for passenger travel, logistics, and emergency response.

Significantly, JOBY stock (NYSE: JOBY) trades at $13.85, up 4.92% or $0.65 today amid positive momentum from manufacturing expansions and certification progress.

JOBY stock
Source: Yahoo Finance

If Joby succeeds, daily mobility could change forever. Short, fast, zero-emission air taxi flights may soon become as normal as booking a ride-share today. And with global governments and major companies backing the vision, the world appears ready for this new era of aviation.

ALSO READ:

The post Joby Aviation’s 2027 Vision: Four Electric Air Taxis per Month and Stronger Emission Cuts Amid Advanced Air Mobility Boom appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Stay in the game: What CSRD means for supplier carbon footprints in 2026

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For years, sustainability reporting sat squarely on the shoulders of large corporations. Smaller suppliers were rarely pulled into the process, and certainly not at a detailed data level. That landscape is changing fast. With the introduction of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), big companies are now expected to publish structured, verifiable climate information—and they can only do this with their suppliers’ support.

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Tesla Tests Driverless Robotaxis in Austin While Analysts Predict 1 Million by 2035 Growth, Sending Stocks Up

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Tesla Tests Driverless Robotaxis in Austin While Analysts Predict 1 Million by 2035 Growth, Sending Stocks Up

Tesla (TSLA) is making big progress in testing driverless robotaxis on public roads and attracting attention from analysts and investors. The company started testing its self-driving cars in Austin, Texas, on December 15. No human safety monitor was on board. This was a milestone that Tesla’s leaders said would happen by year’s end. This shift represents a key part of the EV giant’s long‑term strategy for autonomous vehicles and future mobility services.

At the same time, Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley, are issuing forecasts about Tesla’s robotaxi plans and their potential impact on the company’s future. Analysts calculate the scale of robotaxi fleets and potential valuation effects over the next decade.

These changes have kept Tesla’s stock in the spotlight for investors and the market, even with challenges in electric vehicle sales growth.

Driverless Robotaxis Hit Austin Streets

Tesla (TSLA stock)  began testing its self-driving cars on public roads in Austin, Texas. There were no human drivers or safety monitors in the front seats. CEO Elon Musk confirmed that fully driverless tests are happening. He sees this as an important step toward commercial operation.

Earlier in 2025, Tesla had already launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin using modified Model Y vehicles. Initially, these vehicles included a human safety monitor in the passenger seat to observe system performance.

Over the months, Tesla grew its service area and fleet size. By December 2025, reports showed about 31 active robotaxis operating in the city.

Recent tests without monitors show progress. However, they are still for internal validation, not for daily commercial use. Tesla confirmed that tests aren’t open to paying customers yet. The company hasn’t provided a specific date for when fully autonomous rides will be available to the public.

The Technology Behind Tesla’s Autonomous Effort

Tesla’s autonomous driving push relies on its Full Self‑Driving (FSD) software and onboard sensors. The FSD system can manage various driving situations. It uses cameras, radar inputs, and neural network processing. This differs from some competitors that rely on additional sensors such as LiDAR for redundancy.

In June 2025, Tesla shared its Q2 tech update. The company boosted AI training by adding tens of thousands of GPUs at its Gigafactory in Texas. This expansion supports improvements in FSD, where the company reported its first autonomous delivery. A Model Y drove itself without human help for 30 minutes.

Vehicles with FSD software need regulatory approval to drive on their own. In the Austin pilot, removing physical safety monitors marks progress toward that goal. Achieving fully reliable, unsupervised autonomy is still a challenge. This is true, especially when it comes to safety standards and different road conditions.

Wall Street Eyes Tesla’s Robotaxi Potential, Sending Stock Near Record Highs

Tesla’s autonomous ambitions are closely watched by financial analysts. Morgan Stanley just shared forecasts that say Tesla could greatly grow its robotaxi presence in the next 10 years.

The bank says Tesla might have 1 million robotaxis on the road by 2035. These will operate in various cities as part of its autonomous fleet plan.

Morgan Stanley’s analysis sees active robotaxi units growing in 2026. However, the first fleets will be small compared to the long-term plan. The forecasts show the possible size of the autonomous vehicle market. They also highlight Tesla’s role in this growth. However, there are uncertainties tied to technology and regulations.

Stock markets have reacted to these developments. Tesla’s stock price nearly hit record highs. It rose almost 5% during trading sessions. Investors were excited about progress in driverless testing and the promise of future autonomous revenue. Analysts say Tesla’s value might go up more if its autonomous services and AI products perform well.

Tesla stock december price

Tesla’s Vision for Autonomous Mobility Services

Tesla’s robotaxi initiative fits into its broader vision of mobility services and artificial intelligence (AI)‑driven transport. The company plans to launch purpose-built autonomous vehicles, like the Cybercab. These vehicles won’t have traditional controls, such as steering wheels or pedals. They aim for mass production in April 2026.

Tesla sees a future where owners can add their cars to a decentralized robotaxi network. This could boost fleet availability and usage. This strategy could shift parts of Tesla’s revenue profile away from vehicle sales toward recurring service revenues if adopted at scale. The global robotaxi market could reach over $45 billion in 2030, as shown below.

robotaxi market 2030
Source: MarketsandMarkets

Analysts say that major technical, regulatory, and safety issues still stand in the way of robotaxis operating widely and making a profit. Building public trust, meeting varied local regulations, and demonstrating consistent safety across different road environments will be key factors in future deployment.

Tesla vs Competitors and Safety Regulations

Tesla is not alone in the autonomous vehicle race. Other companies, such as Alphabet’s Waymo, owned by Alphabet, have been operating fully autonomous services in multiple cities for several years and continue to expand.

The company operates about 2,500 robotaxis across multiple cities. Waymo has logged millions of paid autonomous rides and already meets higher autonomy standards in some regions. In comparison, Tesla operates around 31 robotaxis in Austin, with plans to expand to several major U.S. cities by 2026.

Waymo Robotaxi Fleet and CO₂ Avoidance by City

Tesla chose camera-centric sensors over multi-sensor arrays. This decision shows their focus on scalability and cost. Critics and some experts argue that adding LiDAR or other sensors could improve safety and performance under challenging conditions.

Regulators also play an important role. In some states, pilot autonomously driven services are permitted under special testing allowances. Widespread commercial use needs approval from both state and federal agencies. This ensures that vehicles meet safety and operational standards.

What’s Next for Tesla’s Driverless Fleets

Tesla’s move to test robotaxis without onboard safety monitors in Austin marks a clear technical milestone, though it is not yet a commercial service. The company’s next steps will likely focus on scaling test fleets, improving software robustness, and navigating regulatory approvals to allow expanded operations in other cities in 2026 and beyond.

Morgan Stanley and other analysts think robotaxis might play a big role in Tesla’s growth. They could boost service revenue as traditional vehicle sales slow down. However, forecasts at this stage remain based on long‑range assumptions about adoption, pricing, and regulatory landscapes.

Investor sentiment has been mixed. Stock movements show excitement about tech advances but also worry about short-term vehicle sales and profit pressures in the auto industry.

Overall, Tesla’s autonomous ambitions continue to shape its corporate strategy and public profile. The speed of robotaxi rollout, along with improvements in Full Self-Driving software and AI, will be key to seeing if the company can shift from an EV maker to a driverless mobility platform.

The post Tesla Tests Driverless Robotaxis in Austin While Analysts Predict 1 Million by 2035 Growth, Sending Stocks Up appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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