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Canada’s $16.5 Billion Bet on Carbon Capture, Could It Cut Oil Sands Emissions

A group of Canada’s largest oil sands companies, the Pathways Alliance, is in active discussions with Canada Growth Fund (CGF), the federal government’s $15-billion green investment arm, to secure backing for a substantial carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in northern Alberta. 

CCS technology is seen as one of the most effective solutions to reduce emissions in high-polluting sectors like oil, gas, and cement. Canada views this carbon management approach as essential for achieving its net-zero emissions goals.

Carbon Capture Enters the Big Leagues But Price Uncertainty Raises Concerns

The country currently operates several CCS projects that have stored around 44 million tonnes of CO₂ since 2000. 

The federal plan calls for tripling national CCS capacity by 2030 to meet its carbon emission reduction targets. This ambitious goal would require adding new facilities capable of capturing 15 million tonnes of CO₂ annually.

how carbon capture and storage works
Image from Congressional Budget Office.Gov

The Pathways Alliance project would include a $16.5-billion network for capturing and storing CO₂ emissions from over a dozen oil sands facilities. The captured CO₂ will be transported to a central hub in Cold Lake, Alberta. Once operational, this network would permanently store the captured CO₂ deep underground, supporting efforts to reduce emissions across Alberta’s oil sands industry.

This is a major step in decarbonization efforts for Canada’s oil and gas sector. However, oil sands executives remain wary of the potential financial risks tied to the future price of carbon

Adam Waterous, executive chairman of Strathcona Resources, emphasized the “stroke-of-the-pen” risk, a term used to describe the industry’s fear that regulatory changes or policy reversals, such as a shift in the carbon tax, could drastically impact the value of carbon credits.

Waterous, whose company is the first in the sector to strike a CCS deal with CGF, suggested that industry leaders are cautious about committing capital to projects that could ultimately result in stranded assets if carbon prices don’t stabilize.

Moreover, Waterous foresees a significant need for sequestered carbon from technology firms looking to offset emissions. In particular, a recent carbon capture deal between Microsoft and Occidental Petroleum, aimed at reducing data center emissions.

The Role of Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD)

To address industry apprehensions, experts recommend using Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD). It offers a guaranteed floor price for sequestered carbon. CCfDs help “de-risk” investments in emissions reduction technology by providing more stable pricing. 

They argue it could be a decisive factor in encouraging the Pathways Alliance and other companies to pursue costly CCS projects. 

Canada Growth Fund was partially designed to deploy tools like CCfDs to jumpstart green investments. However, it has not yet offered these to oil and gas producers, who are also seeking loan support for carbon capture technology.

The only oil and gas-related agreement involving CCfDs that CGF has reached thus far is with Entropy, a clean-tech company owned by Advantage Energy. The deal allows Entropy to sell carbon credits with an initial value of up to 185,000 tonnes at $86.50 per tonne. 

In contrast, oil producers seeking to meet compliance obligations through carbon credits have been unable to secure similar agreements with CGF, leaving a gap in support for some of the industry’s largest players.

World’s Largest CCS Project by Pathways Alliance

The Pathways Alliance comprises six major oil sands companies:

  1. Canadian Natural Resources,
  2. Suncor Energy,
  3. Cenovus Energy,
  4. Imperial Oil,
  5. MEG Energy, and
  6. ConocoPhillips Canada. 

If successful, their carbon capture and storage network would be the world’s largest and a landmark in global CCS projects. The alliance is eager to collaborate with Ottawa, recognizing the role government backing plays in ensuring the viability of large-scale CCS ventures. 

Kendall Dilling, president of the Pathways Alliance, expressed optimism over Ottawa’s commitment to de-risking industry investments, stating that they “look forward to continued engagement with the government.”

Other policy experts echoed the sentiment that any successful deal would depend on assurance that the operating costs for carbon capture and storage infrastructure will be viable in the long term. This happens if carbon pricing remains stable. 

Carbon Pricing: A Make-or-Break Factor

The fate of the Pathways Alliance’s CCS project will hinge on the development of carbon pricing policies and market demand. The recent surge in carbon credit retirements, representing demand, highlights a potential future trend that could significantly impact carbon prices. 

Remarkably, Rich Gilmore, CEO of Carbon Growth Partners, stated that although retirements have fluctuated in the past, 2024 looks set to hit a record high. He shared on LinkedIn some of his interesting insights regarding voluntary carbon market (VCM) growth. 

Rich Gilmore on voluntary carbon market growth
Source: Rich Gilmore via LinkedIn

As seen in the chart below, demand surged from November 2023 to January 2024, causing a sharp drop in inventory. This spike was largely due to Shell retiring around 17 million credits to hit its internal net emissions efficiency target. That’s one company offsetting about 28% of its Scope 1 and 2 emissions—without even touching Scope 3.

This shift, spurred by one major player, demonstrates the scale of impact that corporations can have on the VCM

VCM issuances, retirements and inventory growth Rich Gilmore
Source: Rich Gilmore (Carbon Growth Partners)

Now, imagine the impact when more companies commit to scaling their carbon reduction strategies taking Shell as an example. The demand could quickly outpace supply, driving up carbon credit prices and creating a more competitive market for offsets.

Shell’s industry has a strong reliance on carbon capture technology to help meet decarbonization targets. Canada, as part of its Emissions Reduction Plan, focuses on achieving substantial emission cuts in the oil and gas sector. 

As the country navigates its decarbonization goals, the Pathways Alliance’s CCS negotiations with CGF show the complexities of advancing green initiatives within a competitive, carbon-intensive sector.

With potential government support on the horizon, Canada’s oil sands companies could help make significant progress toward lowering emissions. Once it happens, it will set a precedent for industry-government collaboration on climate action in the years to come. 

The post Canada’s $16.5 Billion Bet on Carbon Capture: Could It Cut Oil Sands Emissions? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Where should an SME start with a carbon action plan?

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More and more small and medium-sized businesses are hearing the same question from their larger customers: What is your carbon footprint? That question now travels down entire supply chains, and it arrives next to tender requirements, certification criteria, and rising customer expectations.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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