Dubai pledges “at risk”
Although it now feels like a different lifetime, it was only 18 months ago that UN climate boss Simon Stiell hailed “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.
At COP28 in Dubai, all countries agreed to a suite of collective actions – including transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, tripling renewables, and halting and reversing deforestation – in response to their failure to keep climate goals on track as demonstrated by the Global Stocktake.
But that breakthrough is now “at risk” unless the delivery of those promises is urgently speeded up, Jennifer Morgan, an architect of that landmark COP28 deal and until recently Germany’s climate envoy, told an audience at London Climate Action Week.
Campaigners issue mass call for reforms to rescue UN climate process
How to do that? One obvious place would be the dedicated “dialogue on implementing the Global Stocktake outcomes” at the UN climate talks. But discussions in that negotiating track broke down at COP29 in the face of concerted resistance by oil-exporting countries. Now, in Bonn, they appear to be heading in a similar direction with no shared understanding even on the purpose of this space.
Developed countries, small-island states and the AILAC group of Latin American nations want to put the focus on “collective progress” towards meeting the GST goals, ideally by holding an annual ministerial summit and producing reports. But others including the Like-Minded Developing Countries – which counts China and Saudi Arabia among its members – and India have pushed back, saying this forum should not become an assessment mechanism or set new targets, according to a summary of discussions published by the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.
Brazil: Let’s deliver on our old climate promises before making new ones
The elephant in the room is finance. CAN International’s Shreeshan Venkatesh said the “weak decision” on that in Baku – where developed countries agreed to deliver $300 billion per year by 2035 – is “leaving a mark and stopping a constructive, progressive decision from being made here”.
Over in London, Ali Mohamed, Kenya’s climate envoy, warned that without addressing the “centrepiece of climate change” – finance – “it is difficult to get any significant outcome in Belém”.
The pressure is on Brazil, which only a week ago pinned the implementation of the GST goals to the top of its action agenda for this year’s summit. “The time of finger pointing is gone,” said COP30 CEO Ana Toni on Tuesday, calling for a “mature” debate on the energy transition.
Shuttling between stuffy rooms in Bonn and glitzy events in London over the last week, she said it was in the UK capital that she saw “real life moving”. “We haven’t been able as yet to translate that real life to the negotiation rooms,” Toni added. “The transition is inevitable. We need to capture that and bring it into politics”.
How that will be reflected into the final outcome in Belém is still far from clear. One option would be to produce a “cover decision” which often provides a home to stranded and politically -fraught discussions. In a recent letter, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) urged COP30 President André Correa do Lago to seriously consider that possibility.
But speaking to Climate Home last week, Toni made clear that COP30 would rather not go down that route. “We don’t want to use the very precious time of negotiators to get out of the room to negotiate something else rather than deepen the debate about the topics they are already discussing,” she said.
Turkiye makes COP31 case
With one day of the Bonn climate talks left, the fight between Australia and Turkiye over who gets to host COP31 next year has yet to be resolved – despite strong support for Australia from the “Western Europe and Others” group of countries that will make the decision.
Many expected Turkiye to drop its bid, but it doubled down today, with a major charm offensive. Its delegation in Bonn held two receptions – with soft drinks and snacks – and delivered a presentation on why the southern Turkish resort city of Antalya and its huge Expo centre should host COP31.
Part of its pitch is that Antalya has lots of hotels and flight connections – something COP30’s host city Belém is sorely lacking. Its presentation claimed it has 628,000 beds, golf courses, great food and tourist attractions like the Roman ruins of Side.
“Antalya is ready to host a low-carbon global gathering,” the Hollywood-style voiceover said in a promotional video over a graphic of planes converging on Antalya. The argument is that its “central location” will minimise air miles, while Turkiye sees itself as a bridge between East and West, and developed and developing countries.
The presentation promoted Turkiye’s green credentials as an “economy not dependent on fossil fuels”. It wasn’t mentioned explicitly, but rival Australia is a major fossil fuel exporter. Wary of the attraction of Australia’s co-operation with the Pacific islands for COP31, Turkiye’s presentation also mentioned the Pacific several times.
Australia, meanwhile, wants to host the COP in its southern city of Adelaide – a pioneer in renewable energy. The UNFCCC wants a decision on the COP31 host to be made here in Bonn so that whoever is chosen has more than a year to prepare.
Fund the firefighters
“THE WORLD IS ON FIRE. FUND THE FIRE DEPARTMENT” – that was the no-nonsense message, replete with fire emojis, that the UNFCCC’s deputy head Noura Hamladji posted on Linkedin yesterday. The UNFCCC secretariat is the body that organises the UN climate talks and keeps work going throughout the year.
Hamladji was referring to negotiations on how much money governments should give the UNFCCC – the metaphorical fire-fighters – for 2026-2027 so that it can carry out the ever-growing list of activities governments have told it to do.
The two options in the latest draft text are for the budget for 2026-2027 to be around the same as 2024-2025 – $74m over the two years. Or for a 24% increase up to $92m.
A note from UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said that, without an increase, the sustainability of the UNFCCC process and of the secretariat would be jeopardised.
At a meeting today, governments told the UNFCCC to draw up two budgets with around a 10% increase and a 19% increase, according to three sources in the room.
They added that Saudi Arabia said they did not have a mandate to go above 10%. And the UK – which wants 24% – proposed 19% as a compromise.
This will disappoint the UNFCCC and those who rely on its work. Even with the 24% increase, which Stiell calls a “proposed core budget”, the UN climate chief says the UNFCCC would not have enough to cover its “essential” programmes and support activities.
It would also disappoint the small islands of AOSIS. Their finance negotiator Thibyan Ibrahim told Climate Home they want the secretariat’s 24%.
What Stiell calls an “actual needs scenario” of $109m is currently off the table. It is not an option in the draft negotiating text.
Without enough money to fulfill its functions, the UNFCCC would need to raise supplementary funding from voluntary contributions from governments and other sources like philanthropies – such as Michael Bloomberg who has stepped in to fill the hole left by the US government under Trump.
The post Bonn bulletin: Waiting for a plan to rescue COP28 breakthrough appeared first on Climate Home News.
Bonn bulletin: Waiting for a plan to rescue COP28 breakthrough
But a $345 million U.S. verdict against the environmental group hangs over the case.
A lawsuit filed by Greenpeace International against the U.S.-based fossil fuel company Energy Transfer in the Netherlands is moving forward after a Dutch court recently ruled in favor of the environmental organization in rejecting the company’s bid to toss out the case.
Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances
Go behind the scenes with executive editor Vernon Loeb and oceans correspondent Teresa Tomassoni as they discuss the search for heat-resilient coral reefs that are somehow defying the odds to survive a warming planet.
The world has already lost more than half of its coral reefs, and most of what remains is at risk of disappearing in the next 25 years.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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