Arctic sea ice has recorded its smallest winter peak extent since satellite records began 47 years ago, new data reveals.
Provisional data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that Arctic sea ice reached a winter maximum extent of 14.33m square kilometres (km2) last week.
This is 1.31m km2 below the 1981-2010 average maximum and 800,000km2 smaller than the previous low recorded in 2017, according to the data.
Dr Julienne Stroeve, a senior scientist at the NSIDC, tells Carbon Brief that such a small winter peak “doesn’t mean a record-low” summer minimum will necessarily follow in September.
But, she adds, it does “continue the overall long-term decline in the ice cover”.
Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice reached its summer minimum extent earlier this month, with 2025 tying with 2022 and 2024 for the second-smallest summer low on record, the NSIDC says.
The combination of reduced sea ice cover in both the Arctic and Antarctic means that global sea ice extent dwindled to an “all-time minimum” in February this year, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Record low
Arctic sea ice extent changes throughout the year. It grows during the winter towards its annual maximum extent – often referred to as its “winter peak” – in February or March. It then melts throughout the spring and summer towards its September minimum.
Using satellite data, scientists can track the growth and melt of sea ice, allowing them to determine the size of the ice sheet’s winter maximum extent. This is a key way to monitor the “health” of the Arctic sea ice.
On 22 March 2025, Arctic sea ice reached its smallest-ever winter peak, according to the NSIDC. At 14.33m km2, this was 1.31m km2 below the 1981-2010 average maximum and 800,000km2 below the previous low, which was recorded in 2017.
The chart below shows Arctic sea ice extent over the satellite era (1978 to the present day). Red indicates the 2025 extent, while shades of blue indicate different years over 1978-2024.
Daily Arctic sea ice extent (in millions of km2) over the satellite era (1978 to present), where lines indicate individual years. This year is shown in red, while darker blues indicate more recent years. The dashed line indicates the record low winter peak. Credit: Carbon Brief
NSIDC senior research scientist Dr Walt Meier told the Press Association:
“This new record low is yet another indicator of how Arctic sea ice has fundamentally changed from earlier decades. But, even more importantly than the record low, is that this year adds yet another data point to the continuing long-term loss of Arctic sea ice in all seasons.”
Freeze season
The growth season for Arctic sea ice kicked off after reaching its summer minimum extent of 4.28m km2 on 11 September last year. This was the Arctic’s seventh-lowest summer low on record.
As temperatures cooled, the NSIDC says that Arctic sea ice grew slowly at the start of October. Ice growth then sped up towards the middle of the month and then slowed again towards its end. The average sea ice extent for October was 5.94m km2 – the fourth lowest on record, according to the NSIDC.
Throughout November, air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean were “mixed”, according to the NSIDC. It says that temperatures were above average from coastal Canada to northern Scandinavia, as well as in the area north of Greenland, but below average over the Beaufort, Bering and Laptev Seas.
Arctic sea ice grew at a steady pace for most of November – mainly in the Kara, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, as well as Baffin Bay and the Canadian Arctic archipelago. However, in the Hudson Bay – where air temperatures were 1-5C above average – “no appreciable sea ice” formed, according to the NSIDC.
The November extent averaged 9.11m km2, ranking the third lowest in the satellite record and 1.59mkm2 below the 1981-2010 average, the NSIDC says.
December saw above-average air temperatures over “essentially all of the Arctic Ocean”, with a particularly “prominent” area of warmth off the Canadian Arctic archipelago and Greenland, the NSIDC says.
Due to delayed ice growth in the Hudson Bay and low extent in the northern Barents Sea, December Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest in the satellite record at 11.43m km2.
Daily Arctic sea ice extent decreased sharply at the end of January, when the region lost about 0.3m km2 – an area roughly the size of Italy – in less than a week, according to C3S.
It adds that “such a rapid decrease is unusual at this time of year, when sea ice is typically expanding towards its annual maximum”. It points to the “pronounced warm event” over the Greenland Sea and Svalbard region as the reason for the drop.
Dr Rick Thoman – a specialist in the Alaskan climate from the University of Alaska Fairbanks – tells Carbon Brief that the sea ice decrease in late January and early February was partially driven by “separate cyclones producing simultaneous south winds across much of the Barents and Bering Seas”. As winds pushed the ice northwards, “ocean wave action” melted the thin ice at the edge of the ice sheet, he says.
February was marked by slow Arctic sea ice growth, resulting in a record-low February Arctic sea ice extent of 13.75m km2, according to the NSIDC. The organisation adds that daily sea ice growth “stalled” twice in the month, which “helped to contribute to low ice conditions and led to overall ice retreat in the Barents Sea”.
This rapid melt was partially driven by above-average temperatures. Between northern Greenland and the north pole, temperatures reached up to 12C above average, the NSIDC says.
Antarctic melt
At the south pole, Antarctic sea ice has been declining during the southern hemisphere summer. It reached its annual minimum of 1.98m km2 on 1 March.
This summer low ties with 2022 and 2024 for the second-smallest Antarctic extent in the 47-year satellite record, the NSIDC says. It adds that the past four years are the only years on record in which Antarctic sea ice has reached a minimum below 2m km2.
The graphic below shows Antarctic sea ice extent over the satellite era. Red indicates the 2025 extent and shades of blue indicate different years over 1978-2023.
Daily global sea ice extent (in millions of km2) over the satellite era (1978 to present), where lines indicate individual years. This year is shown in red, while darker blues indicate more recent years. The dashed line indicates the record low. Credit: Carbon Brief
The melt season for Antarctic sea ice began with its winter maximum of 17.2m km2 on 19 September 2024.
This was 1.6m km2 smaller than the 1981-2010 average maximum and the second-lowest winter peak on record, according to the NSIDC.
As the southern hemisphere warmed, Antarctic sea ice began to melt. Throughout October, Antarctic sea ice extent continued to rank the second lowest on the satellite record following the record-breaking 2023 season, the NSIDC says.
It adds that “seasonal ice loss was relatively slow during the early part of the month, but the pace picked up substantially during the last week of October, approaching 2023 values”.
By 30 November, Antarctic sea ice was the third lowest on record, tracking higher than the 2023 and 2016 levels for the same date, the NSIDC says.
After a “prolonged period of record to near-record daily lows set in 2023 and 2024”, December 2024 saw Antarctic sea ice loss slow down, with the average rate of decline tracking “well below average”.
By the end of December 2025, Antarctic sea ice extent was roughly in line with the 1981-2010 average, according to the NSIDC.
As a result, it says that “speculation that the Antarctic had entered a new regime of strongly reduced Antarctic sea ice related to oceanic influences, has, at least temporarily, come to an end”.
It adds that sea ice extent was “above average over the western Weddell and Amundsen Seas and slightly below average in the Ross Sea, with near-average extents in other areas”.
Throughout February, Antarctic sea ice continued to melt – especially in the eastern Ross Sea and Amunsden sea, where ice concentration is low, according to the NSIDC.
Global ‘all-time minimum’
With sea ice at or around record lows in both the Arctic and Antarctic, global sea ice extent dropped to an “all-time minimum” in February this year, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Global sea ice hit a new daily low in early February and remained below the previous record from 2023 for the rest of the month, C3S says.
The graphic below shows global sea ice extent over 1978-2025, where red indicates the 2025 extent and shades of blue indicate different years.
Daily Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions of km2) over the satellite era (1978 to present), where lines indicate individual years. This year is shown in red, while darker blues indicate more recent years. The dashed line indicates the record low. Credit: Carbon Brief
C3S deputy director Dr Samantha Burgess noted that the low sea ice came as “February 2025 continues the streak of record or near-record temperatures observed throughout the last two years”. She added:
“One of the consequences of a warmer world is melting sea ice – and the record or near-record low sea ice cover at both poles has pushed global sea ice cover to an all-time minimum.”
The story was picked up in newspapers around the world, including the Guardian, Hindustan Times and Washington Post.
In response to the news from C3DS, Prof Richard Allan – a professor of climate science at the University of Reading – warned that “the long-term prognosis for Arctic sea ice is grim”. He added:
“Averaging over all regions the global warming trend is clear, with February 2025 more than 1.5C above pre-industrial conditions, repeating a level of excess warmth experienced in all but one of the past 20 months despite a weak cooling influence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific.”
The post Arctic sea ice winter peak in 2025 is smallest in 47-year record appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Arctic sea ice winter peak in 2025 is smallest in 47-year record
Climate Change
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Blazing heat hits Europe
FANNING THE FLAMES: Wildfires “fanned by a heatwave and strong winds” caused havoc across southern Europe, Reuters reported. It added: “Fire has affected nearly 440,000 hectares (1,700 square miles) in the eurozone so far in 2025, double the average for the same period of the year since 2006.” Extreme heat is “breaking temperature records across Europe”, the Guardian said, with several countries reporting readings of around 40C.
HUMAN TOLL: At least three people have died in the wildfires erupting across Spain, Turkey and Albania, France24 said, adding that the fires have “displaced thousands in Greece and Albania”. Le Monde reported that a child in Italy “died of heatstroke”, while thousands were evacuated from Spain and firefighters “battled three large wildfires” in Portugal.
UK WILDFIRE RISK: The UK saw temperatures as high as 33.4C this week as England “entered its fourth heatwave”, BBC News said. The high heat is causing “nationally significant” water shortfalls, it added, “hitting farms, damaging wildlife and increasing wildfires”. The Daily Mirror noted that these conditions “could last until mid-autumn”. Scientists warn the UK faces possible “firewaves” due to climate change, BBC News also reported.
Around the world
- GRID PRESSURES: Iraq suffered a “near nationwide blackout” as elevated power demand – due to extreme temperatures of around 50C – triggered a transmission line failure, Bloomberg reported.
- ‘DIRE’ DOWN UNDER: The Australian government is keeping a climate risk assessment that contains “dire” implications for the continent “under wraps”, the Australian Financial Review said.
- EXTREME RAINFALL: Mexico City is “seeing one of its heaviest rainy seasons in years”, the Washington Post said. Downpours in the Japanese island of Kyushu “caused flooding and mudslides”, according to Politico. In Kashmir, flash floods killed 56 and left “scores missing”, the Associated Press said.
- SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION: China and Brazil agreed to “ensure the success” of COP30 in a recent phone call, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
- PLASTIC ‘DEADLOCK’: Talks on a plastic pollution treaty have failed again at a summit in Geneva, according to the Guardian, with countries “deadlocked” on whether it should include “curbs on production and toxic chemicals”.
15
The number of times by which the most ethnically-diverse areas in England are more likely to experience extreme heat than its “least diverse” areas, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- As many as 13 minerals critical for low-carbon energy may face shortages under 2C pathways | Nature Climate Change
- A “scoping review” examined the impact of climate change on poor sexual and reproductive health and rights in sub-Saharan Africa | PLOS One
- A UK university cut the carbon footprint of its weekly canteen menu by 31% “without students noticing” | Nature Food
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Factchecking Trump’s climate report
A report commissioned by the US government to justify rolling back climate regulations contains “at least 100 false or misleading statements”, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists. The report, compiled in two months by five hand-picked researchers, inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed” and misleadingly states that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”80
Spotlight
Does Xi Jinping care about climate change?
This week, Carbon Brief unpacks new research on Chinese president Xi Jinping’s policy priorities.
On this day in 2005, Xi Jinping, a local official in eastern China, made an unplanned speech when touring a small village – a rare occurrence in China’s highly-choreographed political culture.
In it, he observed that “lucid waters and lush mountains are mountains of silver and gold” – that is, the environment cannot be sacrificed for the sake of growth.
(The full text of the speech is not available, although Xi discussed the concept in a brief newspaper column – see below – a few days later.)
In a time where most government officials were laser-focused on delivering economic growth, this message was highly unusual.
Forward-thinking on environment
As a local official in the early 2000s, Xi endorsed the concept of “green GDP”, which integrates the value of natural resources and the environment into GDP calculations.
He also penned a regular newspaper column, 22 of which discussed environmental protection – although “climate change” was never mentioned.
This focus carried over to China’s national agenda when Xi became president.
New research from the Asia Society Policy Institute tracked policies in which Xi is reported by state media to have “personally” taken action.
It found that environmental protection is one of six topics in which he is often said to have directly steered policymaking.
Such policies include guidelines to build a “Beautiful China”, the creation of an environmental protection inspection team and the “three-north shelterbelt” afforestation programme.
“It’s important to know what Xi’s priorities are because the top leader wields outsized influence in the Chinese political system,” Neil Thomas, Asia Society Policy Institute fellow and report co-author, told Carbon Brief.
Local policymakers are “more likely” to invest resources in addressing policies they know have Xi’s attention, to increase their chances for promotion, he added.
What about climate and energy?
However, the research noted, climate and energy policies have not been publicised as bearing Xi’s personal touch.
“I think Xi prioritises environmental protection more than climate change because reducing pollution is an issue of social stability,” Thomas said, noting that “smoggy skies and polluted rivers” were more visible and more likely to trigger civil society pushback than gradual temperature increases.
The paper also said topics might not be linked to Xi personally when they are “too technical” or “politically sensitive”.
For example, Xi’s landmark decision for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is widely reported as having only been made after climate modelling – facilitated by former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua – showed that this goal was achievable.
Prior to this, Xi had never spoken publicly about carbon neutrality.
Prof Alex Wang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor of law not involved in the research, noted that emphasising Xi’s personal attention may signal “top” political priorities, but not necessarily Xi’s “personal interests”.
By not emphasising climate, he said, Xi may be trying to avoid “pushing the system to overprioritise climate to the exclusion of the other priorities”.
There are other ways to know where climate ranks on the policy agenda, Thomas noted:
“Climate watchers should look at what Xi says, what Xi does and what policies Xi authorises in the name of the ‘central committee’. Is Xi talking more about climate? Is Xi establishing institutions and convening meetings that focus on climate? Is climate becoming a more prominent theme in top-level documents?”
Watch, read, listen
TRUMP EFFECT: The Columbia Energy Exchange podcast examined how pressure from US tariffs could affect India’s clean energy transition.
NAMIBIAN ‘DESTRUCTION’: The National Observer investigated the failure to address “human rights abuses and environmental destruction” claims against a Canadian oil company in Namibia.
‘RED AI’: The Network for the Digital Economy and the Environment studied the state of current research on “Red AI”, or the “negative environmental implications of AI”.
Coming up
- 17 August: Bolivian general elections
- 18-29 August: Preparatory talks on the entry into force of the “High Seas Treaty”, New York
- 18-22 August: Y20 Summit, Johannesburg
- 21 August: Advancing the “Africa clean air programme” through Africa-Asia collaboration, Yokohama
Pick of the jobs
- Lancaster Environment Centre, senior research associate: JUST Centre | Salary: £39,355-£45,413. Location: Lancaster, UK
- Environmental Justice Foundation, communications and media officer, Francophone Africa | Salary: XOF600,000-XOF800,000. Location: Dakar, Senegal
- Politico, energy & climate editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels, Belgium
- EnviroCatalysts, meteorologist | Salary: Unknown. Location: New Delhi, India
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Climate Change
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
The specter of a “gas-for-wind” compromise between the governor and the White House is drawing the ire of residents as a deadline looms.
Hundreds of New Yorkers rallied against new natural gas pipelines in their state as a deadline loomed for the public to comment on a revived proposal to expand the gas pipeline that supplies downstate New York.
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
A “critical assessment” report commissioned by the Trump administration to justify a rollback of US climate regulations contains at least 100 false or misleading statements, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists.
The report – “A critical review of impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the US climate” – was published by the US Department of Energy (DoE) on 23 July, just days before the government laid out plans to revoke a scientific finding used as the legal basis for emissions regulation.
The executive summary of the controversial report inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed”.
It also states misleadingly that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”.
Compiled in just two months by five “independent” researchers hand-selected by the climate-sceptic US secretary of energy Chris Wright, the document has sparked fierce criticism from climate scientists, who have pointed to factual errors, misrepresentation of research, messy citations and the cherry-picking of data.
Experts have also noted the authors’ track record of promoting views at odds with the mainstream understanding of climate science.
Wright’s department claims the report – which is currently open to public comment as part of a 30-day review – underwent an “internal peer-review period amongst [the] DoE’s scientific research community”.
The report is designed to provide a scientific underpinning to one flank of the Trump administration’s plans to rescind a finding that serves as the legal prerequisite for federal emissions regulation. (The second flank is about legal authority to regulate emissions.)
The “endangerment finding” – enacted by the Obama administration in 2009 – states that six greenhouse gases are contributing to the net-negative impacts of climate change and, thus, put the public in danger.
In a press release on 29 July, the US Environmental Protection Agency said “updated studies and information” set out in the new report would “challenge the assumptions” of the 2009 finding.
Carbon Brief asked a wide range of climate scientists, including those cited in the “critical review” itself, to factcheck the report’s various claims and statements.
The post Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-trumps-climate-report-includes-more-than-100-false-or-misleading-claims/
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