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Antarctic sea ice has recorded its third-smallest winter peak extent since satellite records began 47 years ago, new data reveals.

Provisional data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that Antarctic sea ice reached a winter maximum of 17.81m square kilometres (km2) on 17 September.

This is 900,000km2 below the 1981-2010 average maximum extent – the historical baseline against which more recent sea ice extent is typically compared.

According to one expert, the “lengthening trend of lower Antarctic sea ice poses real concerns regarding stability and melting of the ice sheet”.

Meanwhile, at the Earth’s other pole, Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum on 10 September, ranking as the joint-10th lowest in the satellite record.

At 1.6m km2, the 2025 minimum shares the spot with 2008 and 2010. The NSIDC notes that all 19 of the lowest sea ice extents in the record have occurred in the past 19 years.

Antarctic peak

For decades, scientists have been using satellite data to track the annual cycle of sea ice growth and melt at the world’s poles. This is a key way to monitor the “health” of sea ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic.

The map below shows Antarctic sea ice on the day of its maximum extent for the year on 17 September 2025, where the yellow line shows the 1981-2010 average.

The NSIDC says that sea ice extent was “markedly below average” in the Indian Ocean and the Bellingshausen Sea, but “slightly above average” over the Ross Sea.

Antarctic sea ice extent on 17 September.
Antarctic sea ice extent on 17 September. Median sea ice edge for 1981-2010 is shown in yellow. Source: NSIDC.

In an NSIDC press release announcing the Antarctic maximum, Dr Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research In Environmental Sciences, said:

“The lengthening trend of lower Antarctic sea ice poses real concerns regarding stability and melting of the ice sheet. However, it may also be leading to greater snowfall over the continent, which would slow the progression of sea level rise.”

Antarctic sea ice growth

In its typical annual cycle, Antarctic sea ice grows during winter towards its annual maximum extent in September or October. It then melts throughout the spring and summer towards its March minimum.

Earlier this year, Antarctic sea ice recorded its second-smallest summer minimum on record.

At 1.98m m2, this was the fourth consecutive year that Antarctic sea ice had fallen below 2m km2, the NSIDC noted.

In its monthly sea ice updates, the NSIDC reported that sea ice then grew at a “near-average pace”. During this period, sea ice “expanded rapidly” in the last areas to lose ice, including the Ross Sea and eastern Weddell Sea, it said.

Map showing the main regions of the Antarctic.
Map showing the main regions of the Antarctic. Credit: Carbon Brief

The NSIDC explained that sea ice rebounded quickly in the Ross Sea area because ice extent had retreated “slowly” there the month before – meaning that the upper ocean layer did not have time to accumulate heat which would slow the winter freeze.

In April, “the situation in the Antarctic remained fickle”, the NSIDC said. At the beginning of the month, sea ice extent neared “record-low” daily extents, but as the month progressed ice cover expanded “fairly quickly”, it said.

May had “below average growth” in Antarctic sea ice and saw the fifth lowest record for Antarctic sea extent.

As June began, the the Bellingshausen Sea and eastern Queen Maud Lord regions were “far behind” in ice re-growth, it said, adding that the Bellingshausen Sea was almost entirely ice-free as temperatures were 6-8C above average.

In June, Antarctic sea ice was 1.28m km2 below the 1981-2010 baseline, with “particularly low” sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea and the Indian Ocean sector, according to the NSIDC. This was the third-lowest sea ice extent ever recorded for the month of June, it said.

Throughout July, Antarctic sea ice extent grew at a “slower-than-average” rate, according to the NSIDC. By the end of the month, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.3m km2 below the baseline, it noted.

Antarctic sea ice extent

Arctic melt season

In the Arctic, sea ice cover typically reaches its high point in March, before dropping to its September minimum at the end of the northern-hemisphere summer.

The 2025 Arctic sea ice winter peak was the smallest since satellite records began. The peak, recorded on 22 March, was 1.31m km2 below the average maximum for the 1981-2010 historical baseline.

In March, Arctic sea ice extent averaged 14.14m km2 – the lowest in the satellite record, according to the NSIDC. It noted that, at the time, average air temperature was above the historical baseline across much of the Arctic region.

Map showing main regions of the Arctic.
Map showing main regions of the Arctic. Credit: Carbon Brief

Arctic sea ice extent then “changed very little” throughout April, remaining “nearly constant” until the final days of the month, the NSIDC reported.

It added that the final days of April saw Arctic sea ice extent drop due to ice retreat along the coast of the Barents Sea.

According to data, the main reason why the April total extent remained largely flat was due to an increase of sea ice in the northeastern Barents Seas that “offset” losses elsewhere.

Below-average air temperatures over the northern Norwegian and Barents Seas was the most “notable feature” of April 2025, the NSIDC said.

May was marked by a decline in Arctic sea ice extent at a faster-than-average pace, the NSIDC noted, resulting in the seventh-lowest May extent on record.

It added that ice loss in May was “primarily” in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk.

In June, Arctic sea ice extent averaged 10.48m km2 – the second-lowest average on record for the month, the NSIDC said. It noted that sea ice hit record-low levels over 20 June and 26 June and tracked at “near-record” low levels through the month. The Barents and Kara Seas were both “nearly ice-free” by the end June.

Zack Labe on Bluesky: One region of the Arctic that observed an unusually early start to the melt season is across the Kara Sea

Hudson Bay ice extent was also “considerably below average” throughout June and northern parts of Baffin Bay were nearly ice-free, it said.

By the end of July, daily sea ice extent in the Arctic had fallen to 7.66m km2 – the third lowest in the satellite record, the NSIDC reported. It noted that, for most of the month, Arctic sea ice extent tracked close to levels recorded for 2012 – the year in which Arctic sea ice extent reached its lowest-ever September minimum.

Arctic sea ice extent 1978-2025

Throughout August, the NSIDC reported that sea ice “rapidly melted and compacted” north of Alaska in the Beaufort Sea, with sea ice extent averaging at 5.41m km2 – the seventh lowest on record.

Dr Zack Labe – a climate scientist at Climate Central – tells Carbon Brief that northern Siberia saw August air temperatures more than 5C above the 1981-2010 average, resulting in “a striking amount of open water along the Atlantic side of the Arctic that would normally be ice-covered”.

Zack Labe on Bluesky: Last month observed temperature departures more than 5°C above the 1981-2010 average across nearly the entire Kara Sea region and across parts of northern Siberia

At an annual minimum of 1.6m km2, this year’s Arctic minimum is “pretty unremarkable”, Labe tells Carbon Brief, and “adds to the evidence of a clear slowdown in the rate of summer Arctic sea ice loss”.

However, Labe stresses that this is “not surprising” – referencing a recent study which “clearly shows how internal variability can temporarily drive periods of slower melt in a warming climate, as well as periods of rapid melt, such as in the early 2000s”. (For more on this research, read Carbon Brief’s guest post).

He adds:

“It is only a matter of time before summertime melt accelerates again. This is not a good news story, especially since in many other months we still see a clear downward trend…

“While the past decade of summers may give the appearance of a slowdown, regional extremes such as in the Kara Sea this year underscore that the Arctic is already radically different from past decades. The driver is clear – human-caused climate change.”

Satellite switch

For decades, NSIDC has tracked sea ice using data from weather satellites run by the US Navy. However, earlier this year, Mongabay reported that NSIDC scientists “noticed holes in the data they were receiving”.

The article explains:

“When scientists inquired with the Department of Defense (DoD), they were told not all data were being downloaded and access to the data had been deprioritised. Soon after, the DoD said it would stop sharing…data altogether, citing military cybersecurity risks in the old systems.”

NSIDC scientist Walt Meier told Science that while the US satellites “are up there and functioning…we’re not getting all the data anymore, at least regularly”.

The DoD then set a cut-off date to “cease distribution data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Programme” on 31 July.

In June, the NSIDC announced that it would “explore switching to a different sensor” aboard a Japanese satellite that was launched in 2012.

The only other option available to NSIDC was a “series of Chinese weather satellites, which the country is already using to produce its own record of sea ice”, Science noted. It added that a new US DoD weather satellite, launched last year, is “also capable of collecting similar data, but its data have not yet been made public”.

The switch was completed by the July cut-off date and NSIDC reprocessed all data for 2025 to use the new data source to ensure “consistency through the year”.

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Antarctic sea ice winter peak in 2025 is third smallest on record

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Climate Change

With extreme heat now a public health crisis, local data can save lives

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Eric Mackres is senior manager of urban analytics for the WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities and attended London Climate Action Week during the June 2026 heatwave. Usama Bilal is an associate professor of epidemiology and co-director of the Urban Health Collaborative at Drexel University.

As thousands gathered in London for one of the year’s largest climate gatherings last week, Western Europe faced its most severe heatwave ever recorded. The irony was not lost.

Across Europe, over a dozen countries issued urgent heat warnings and Spain registered significant deaths. In London, where air conditioning is rare in buildings and on trains and buses, temperatures soared past 36 degrees Celsius (97F) and schools closed early. The mayor announced the city’s first heat action plan – an important step.

Extreme heat is now a public health crisis for many of the world’s cities, as the urban heat island effect intensifies dangerous temperatures – and it’s growing worse. Around 500,000 people die from extreme heat every year. As global temperatures rise, and with a severe El Niño getting underway, even more people will die and be hospitalised unless cities act soon.

But most cities are still taking a far too one-sized-fits-all approach to tackling heat, looking only at temperatures and not its local effects on people and their health.

People experience heat differently

How extreme heat affects people’s health can vary widely across a country and city, depending on their environment and demographics. Cities can save far more lives and prevent more hospitalisations by taking a tailored approach, using data to understand who’s most vulnerable and directing solutions toward them.

The good news: better data now exists that enable cities to pinpoint who’s most at risk. And that data can inform customised adaptation strategies to save lives. Indeed, the future of cities will hinge on their ability to deliver solutions to extreme heat tailored to at-risk people and neighborhoods.

Comment: Climate adaptation in Africa needs investment, not imported solutions

First, cities should start by measuring heat’s risks to people’s health locally. Our work in Brazil and across Latin America shows big differences in what temperatures are dangerous and how quickly risks escalate at higher temperatures. These variations exist between cities, between demographic groups and between neighbourhoods.

But it’s not as simple as finding the hottest places. In temperate Porto Alegre, in southern Brazil, a person’s risk of death increases by 25% at temperatures of 27 degrees Celsius (81F). In tropical Teresina, in northern Brazil, which is hot year-round, the same temperature does not elevate the risk of death. At 32 degrees Celsius (90F), a person’s risk of death increases by a milder 10%.

These differences also exist within cities where the climate is the same. Elderly people, the very young, lower-income communities and those without air-conditioning and shaded green spaces are all more likely to get sick, be hospitalised, or die from heat. Areas with more trees and green spaces usually have lower temperatures, and therefore lower impacts of heat.

Targeted heat alerts

Second, cities can use this data to develop early warning systems and outreach campaigns that give people more targeted heat alerts. Research in the UK found that the elderly, despite being among the most at-risk, often were unable to heed warnings during the 2022 heatwave. Well-designed heat warning systems and city responses strengthen people’s trust in health services. They can change people’s behaviours and better prepare municipal services, helping reduce illness, hospital visits and deaths.

Rio de Janeiro adopted a heat alert system in 2024 with five alert levels based on past heatwaves’ impacts on health and forecasts of when temperature and humidity will hit those dangerous levels again. The alert levels activate services like cooling centres, extra public drinking water, and changes to outdoor events. When a heatwave struck during Carnival in 2025, the city was able to deploy resources to protect and warn people while still allowing events to go on.

WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in

Finally, cities should use local heat data to target cooling solutions to where they can help people the most. Solutions like tree cover, shade structures and cool roofs lower temperatures and can provide targeted relief for the most vulnerable people, like outdoor workers and those who travel by foot, bike or public transit.

In Florianópolis, Brazil, we helped the local government use heat impact modeling to design a green corridor and urban forestry project that will reduce pedestrians’ heat stress up to 7 degrees C. In Hermosillo, Mexico, our researchers worked with the city and found that certain neighbourhoods could feel up to 14 degrees C hotter than the shaded city center. A park is now under construction that will bring better shade and heat relief to one of the city’s most at-risk areas.

A modular street shade structure on display during an event at New York Climate Action Week on Governors Island, NYC in September 2025. (Photo: Megan Rowling)

A modular street shade structure on display during an event at New York Climate Action Week on Governors Island, NYC in September 2025. (Photo: Megan Rowling)

Connecting health and climate planning

Momentum to address extreme heat in cities is growing, from both national and local governments. At last year’s UN climate summit in Brazil, the Belém Health Action Plan saw 30 national health ministries commit to build climate-resilient health systems based on local data and evidence-based policies.

And over 160 local governments joined the Beat the Heat initiative, committing to develop urban heat action plans and deliver passive cooling projects to reduce health risks.

But there’s still a disconnect between health, urban and climate officials. Only 23% of World Meteorological Organization member countries integrate weather information into health surveillance systems. Heat-health impact models, though increasingly easy to scale, are not yet built for every city. Some cities still need to collect local data for specific demographics and neighbourhoods – and many need support.

National and local governments will need to partner on this tailored approach. It will require integrating local heat and health data into public health systems, city planning, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness.

We have the data to know who will be most impacted by extreme heat when – and the solutions to keep people alive and out of the hospital. It’s time for governments to use them.

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Ocean summit stays silent on new wave of offshore oil and gas expansion

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As governments gathered at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya’s coastal city of Mombasa this month, pledging over $6 billion for marine protection, sustainable fisheries and offshore wind, one issue remained largely absent from the main stage: the continued expansion of offshore oil and gas.

From Norway, Brazil and Guyana to South Africa, Angola and Kenya, countries are pushing ahead with offshore oil and gas projects even as they promise to protect marine ecosystems and tackle the climate change that is heating the ocean, raising sea levels and damaging coastal livelihoods.

Governments argue that offshore oil and gas production is needed for energy security, public revenues and economic growth, but environmental groups say new drilling risks locking countries into decades of fossil fuel production just as they are promising to build a sustainable blue economy. 

Inia Seruiratu, Fijian parliamentarian and the Pacific COP31 Envoy for the Ocean, said the contradiction is becoming harder to ignore. 

“For too long, two conversations – climate mitigation and ocean protection – have run on separate tracks, in separate rooms, with separate experts,” Seruiratu told delegates at a side event during the Mombasa conference held on the shores on the Indian Ocean. 

    “We talk about emissions reductions in one hall, and coral bleaching in the other, as if they were unrelated phenomena rather than cause and effect. As we commit to new marine protected areas, new ocean financing and fisheries action, we cannot continue to treat the symptoms while funding the disease,” he added. 

    In Mombasa, only one side event out of the dozens of panels was dedicated to the threats posed by the expansion of offshore oil and gas. That event was organised by civil society rather than governments.

    Kenyan officials led by deputy president Kithure Kindiki, alongside John Kerry, founder of the Our Ocean conference. (Photo: Kenya State Department for Blue Economy and Fisheries)

    Kenyan officials led by deputy president Kithure Kindiki, alongside John Kerry, founder of the Our Ocean conference. (Photo: Kenya State Department for Blue Economy and Fisheries)

    New wave of offshore projects

    One-third of the world’s global production of oil and gas comes from offshore projects. They harm oceans in part through the greenhouse gas emissions generated by the fuels they produce, with climate change already driving record sea temperatures, coral bleaching and sea-level rise.

    Offshore exploration and production also affect marine life through seismic surveys, underwater noise, vessel traffic and the risk of oil spills, threatening sensitive habitats such as coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass meadows that support fisheries, biodiversity and coastal protection. 

    Now, as onshore reserves mature, a new wave of offshore oil and gas development is advancing across the world.

    Offshore oil and gas expansion threatens key marine ecosystems, report warns

    A May report by Earth Insight found that 85% of all hydrocarbon discoveries made in 2024 were offshore, with new projects advancing from Norway and Brazil to Guyana, Namibia and East Africa. 

    In Africa, countries such as Namibia, Tanzania and Kenya say exploiting fossil fuel resources could help finance development, support economic growth and lift millions out of poverty, particularly at a time when many face high debt levels and limited access to climate finance.

    Kenya’s conundrum

    The debate was on display at the Mombasa conference, where host Kenya announced it was joining the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA), while also defending plans to explore for oil and gas in the Lamu Basin, a biodiverse coastal region.

    “The energy transition is a journey. It is not a one-stop shop,” Alex Wachira, principal secretary for Kenya’s Department of Energy, told Climate Home News. “Therefore, we must explore the transition and bring on as many options as possible while exploiting the resources we have. At some point, the entire sector will transition to 100% renewable,” he added.

    Wachira said Kenya’s low contribution to global emissions and its continued development needs justify pursuing offshore oil and gas alongside renewables, adding that the country still has “the industrial revolution” to achieve.

    “Kenya needs to have a piece of the pie … our emissions today are the least, but we have suffered the most,” said Wachira.

    How Shell is still benefiting from offloaded Niger Delta oil assets

    The East African nation is seen as a world leader in renewable energy, with about 90% of its electricity generated from geothermal, hydropower, wind and solar.

    Omar Elmawi, a Kenyan climate activist and member of the Fossil Free Ocean Initiative, said Kenya should focus on expanding renewable energy, adding that new fossil fuel projects could result in financial losses as countries move to cut planet-heating emissions and shift to cleaner energy. 

    “We know we cannot have a future dependent on fossil fuels. The rest of the world is talking about how to move beyond them,” Elmawi told Climate Home News.

    “If we invest heavily in fossil fuels within our oceans, we’ll end up with stranded assets and a huge debt that taxpayers will have to pay,” he added.

    A side event on fossil-fuel-free oceans at the Our Ocean conference in Mombasa. (Photo: Kenya State Department for Blue Economy and Fisheries)

    A side event on fossil-fuel-free oceans at the Our Ocean conference in Mombasa. (Photo: Kenya State Department for Blue Economy and Fisheries)

    Offshore wind as a solution

    Many environmental groups argue that offshore wind is a promising alternative, as it can deliver similar economic benefits from energy production without worsening climate change. 

    A study unveiled at the Mombasa conference by Zero Carbon Analytics, Ocean Conservancy and GOWA found that Africa’s offshore wind potential is vast, yet largely untapped.

    The continent could install around 6,750 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity – roughly 28 times its current power generation capacity.

    Developing just 5% of that potential could create an estimated 5.9 million jobs and generate more than $1 trillion in economic benefits, while producing enough electricity to meet all projected growth in power demand through 2040, the study found.

    Campaigners say this could strengthen energy security, reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and help build new industries around ports, manufacturing and maritime services.

    According to a 2025 World Bank report, every $1 million invested in offshore wind creates around 25 jobs – five times more than fossil fuels.

    Robust marine protection needed

    Bruna Campos, senior campaigner for the Climate and Energy Program at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), said offshore wind offers a cleaner alternative to offshore oil and gas, but warned that poorly planned projects can also cause harm. 

    She called for robust marine spatial planning, environmental assessments and early community involvement to ensure the industry does not repeat mistakes associated with fossil fuel development.

    “You need to understand what are the impacts that offshore wind will have on sensitive ecosystems and communities,” Campos told Climate Home News.

    West African nations target Eastern Atlantic for early high seas protection

    A 2024 UN study found that offshore wind farms can disturb whales, seals, porpoises and migratory fish, particularly during construction, when underwater noise and seabed disruption are greatest. At the same time, turbine foundations can act as artificial reefs, creating habitat for some species and boosting local fish populations. 

    Pacific COP31 Envoy for the Ocean Seruiratu said that while investing in renewables is crucial, it is also important to keep pushing for fossil fuels to be phased out. 

    He said his own country, Fiji, is among a growing block of nations calling for “a binding international mechanism for an orderly and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels”. 

    “Every offshore drilling decision, every new exploration site, every delayed phase-out is a decision made against the common good,” he added. 

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    Climate Change

    UN plastics pact talks restart amid fears production curbs will be left out

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    Governments are holding “critical” talks this week on a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, as some countries and activists warn that key issues – including measures to rein in soaring plastic production – are being sidelined.

    Diplomats are meeting in person in Nairobi for the first time since negotiations were suspended in chaos nearly a year ago, stymied by a long-running deadlock that pits petrostates against more ambitious nations over the reach of the UN pact.

    Because nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a major influence on global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

    The four-day informal gathering, which begins on Tuesday, has been billed by the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, as a “brainstorming” session in which countries are invited to put forward possible solutions to some of the treaty negotiations’ most divisive elements.

    Cordano is expected to distill those views in a new document intended to serve as the basis for a new draft text of the future treaty, which governments would take up at the next official round of negotiations, scheduled for March 13-24, 2027.

    Two earlier rounds, each billed as the final one, ended without agreement, derailed largely by a standoff over how the treaty should address plastic production, which the UN says is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.

    Production curbs in the spotlight

    Large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, have repeatedly argued that the treaty should focus only on managing plastic waste. A US State Department spokesperson told Climate Home News that Washington supports “practical, cost-effective solutions” to plastic pollution, while opposing “global plastic bans”.

    A majority of countries – including most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations -want to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”, but have not pushed for any wide-ranging ban.

      Ahead of what it described as “critical” talks in Nairobi, the French government said last week it had already shown flexibility and “significantly scaled back” its initial ambitions. But a French official told a meeting of EU environment ministers that without an explicit reference to the “unsustainable nature” of plastic production, the treaty would be “fundamentally unbalanced, ineffective and, worse still, could set us on the wrong path for decades to come”.

      In a separate written communication, the French government lamented that informal meetings held in recent months have given “disproportionate visibility to the positions of the least ambitious states”, fuelling a “risk that partial agreements may be reached only on the issues with the broadest consensus”.

      Dennis Clare, a negotiator for the Pacific island nation of Micronesia, told Climate Home News that “if we fail to address any key elements”, including overproduction, the impacts of the plastic crisis on the climate, human health and ecosystems will only grow more severe.

      Fears over “political calculations”

      Despite such concerns, plastics production is not mentioned in the wide-ranging list of topics Cordano has drafted for the meeting – an omission that has alarmed observers.

      Christina Dixon, a campaigner at the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA), said there appeared to be an attempt to write off this crucial element of the treaty as “too complicated and politically unviable”.

      David Azoulay, environmental health programme director at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), said the meeting’s proposed structure was “highly concerning”. He accused the chair of “making political calculations in favour of potential short-term wins” and aiming to deliver a treaty “based on the lowest common denominator”.

      UN asks AI companies to reveal full environmental impacts

      Speaking to journalists last week, Cordano pushed back, insisting that “no topic is off the table” and inviting countries to bring whatever proposals they judged necessary for a successful outcome.

      He added that the treaty could not be allowed to settle for just any level of ambition, and that he would not be happy with an outcome at all costs.

      “This is what makes it so difficult and complex,” said Cordano, who was elected in February after his predecessor’s resignation. Countries “are trying to be creative” in finding solutions, he explained, because “the road to the objective of our work might not be so obvious”.

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