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US president Donald Trump’s tariffs might only shave 0.3% off global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

While the Trump administration is setting back international climate action through policies such as the “one big beautiful bill”, some analysts have argued that his tariffs would inadvertently cut carbon by throwing sand into the engine of the global economy.

However, Carbon Brief’s analysis, based on changing projections of economic growth since the tariffs were announced, shows that this effect is likely to be very limited.

The slew of new tariffs – initially announced on 2 April, dubbed by the president as “liberation day” – might only knock 110-150m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) off global emissions in 2025 (0.3-0.4%), the analysis shows.

For 2026, the tariffs could have a slightly higher impact, but still only 190-300MtCO2 (0.5-0.8%).

Line chart showing historical CO2 emissions titled: Trump's tariffs might only decrease emissions by 0.3% this year
Annual global emissions from fossil fuels and cement, bntCO2, including estimates for 2025 and 2026 based on IMF GDP growth forecasts both before and after Trump announced his tariffs. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of IMF, World Bank and Global Carbon Budget data.

Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs included a 10% universal levy on all imported goods, alongside additional “reciprocal tariffs” on a number of countries he claimed had “cheated” the US.

The announcement sent the world’s stock markets into “turmoil”. The move has hit a range of diverse industries, including steel and aluminium, oil and more.

Despite initially saying he had no plans to pause the tariffs, Trump announced on 10 April that he would pause them for 90 days.

This pause was set to come to an end on 9 July, but, just days before this, he announced a further extension to 1 August. On his social-media network, Truth Social, Trump said countries would receive “letters and/or deals” on tariffs in the interim.

More recently, he has signed tariff deals with the European Union and countries such as the UK, Japan, the Philippines and others.

These deals reduce the headline tariff rates relative to the “liberation day” situation, as well as typically including a range of carve-outs and exemptions.

However, they do not end uncertainty over tariff levels and still leave US import levies at their highest levels “since the 1930s”, reducing expectations for trade and growth.

Since returning to office at the beginning of 2025, Trump – a climate sceptic – has rolled back a large number of environmental policies and protections.

Most recently, his “one big beautiful bill” was passed on 4 July, bringing an end to a number of former president Joe Biden’s policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provided support for electric vehicles, clean-technology manufacturing and more.

In combination with other Trump administration policies, this means the US will breach its now-defunct emissions reduction for 2030 target by a cumulative total of 7bn tonnes of CO2, previous Carbon Brief analysis found.

Nevertheless, numerous people suggested that the economic damage from Trump’s tariffs could “unintentionally” lead to a drop in carbon emissions.

For example, an April 2025 article in the New York Times stated: “Trump’s economic approach may inadvertently reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as consumption slows in response to a global trade war.”

The piece noted that the “reprieve for the planet” was likely to be short-lived, with longer-term impacts potentially hitting clean-energy deployment as international supply chains are hampered.

Similarly, an April 2025 Associated Press article quoted Global Carbon Project head Prof Rob Jackson saying that tariffs “might help the climate in the first year or two”. However, it quoted him continuing that this would come at a high cost and might backfire:

“I would say it might help the climate in the first year or two if we have a downturn in economic activity or a recession, which no one wants. But it will hurt the climate long-term because tariffs impact clean tech more than most other industries because of trade with China.”

Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that the emissions impact, even in the short term, is expected to be minimal.

It assessed the expected emissions impact of reduced global GDP by looking at changes to GDP forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank, before and after Trump’s tariffs announcements.

The OECD suggests the biggest impact from the tariffs, as shown in the chart below.

Bar chart: Estimated growth impacts from Trump's tariffs are similar across organisations
Estimated change in global emissions as a result of tariffs, MtCO2, based on GDP growth forecasts from the IMF, OECD and World Bank. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of figures from the IMF, OECD, World Bank and Global Carbon Project.

The medium- to long-term impact of Trump’s trade wars is expected to be negative for climate action. In a recent interview, UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte told Carbon Brief that it created uncertainty and was likely to slow down clean-energy investment. She said:

“Investment flows when everybody feels confident, right?…[I]f I don’t know if the tariff is 10%, 20%, 25%, 56%, whatever, well, let me put it off till the next quarter to make that investment decision.”

Kyte added: “It’s the hesitancy that it puts in the mind of government, but also in the mind of investors and the private sector…[T]he sort of tariff era we’re in, the risk is that it slows down the investment in the clean-energy transition at a time when it needs to speed up.”

Methodology

Carbon Brief estimated the impact of Trump’s tariffs on global GDP by comparing growth forecasts published during June and July 2025 by the IMF World Economic Outlook, OECD Economic Outlook and World Bank Global Economic Prospects against corresponding forecasts published in December 2024 or January 2025, before Trump’s tariff announcements.

While Trump’s tariffs are not the only factor to have changed in these forecasts over the time period in question, they do represent a singular and sudden effect, which would be expected to have a significant impact on the global economic outlook.

The analysis estimates global GDP over 2025/2026 by applying the growth forecasts to historical GDP from the World Bank.

The reductions in forecast global GDP growth are translated into estimated emissions impacts by assuming that the “carbon intensity” of the world’s economy continues to improve at a steady rate, with or without the tariffs. Carbon intensity is the emissions per unit of GDP and has been improving slowly and steadily over many years.

The analysis only considers CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production. Historical CO2 emissions data is taken from the Global Carbon Budget.

The range of estimated CO2 impacts stems from the varying GDP forecasts of the three different organisations.

For comparison, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 by some 350,000 barrels of oil per day since the start of the year. This is equivalent to cutting global emissions this year by 40MtCO2.

The IEA’s forecasts for global coal demand in 2025 are broadly unchanged since the start of the year, with demand expected to grow 0.2% this year.

The post Analysis: Trump’s tariffs could cut just 0.3% from global CO2 emissions in 2025 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: Trump’s tariffs could cut just 0.3% from global CO2 emissions in 2025

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Climate Change

Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use 

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Mining companies are showcasing new technologies which they say could extract more lithium – a key ingredient for electric vehicle (EV) batteries – from South America’s vast, dry salt flats with lower environmental impacts.

But environmentalists question whether the expensive technology is ready to be rolled out at scale, while scientists warn it could worsen the depletion of scarce freshwater resources in the region and say more research is needed.

The “lithium triangle” – an area spanning Argentina, Bolivia and Chile – holds more than half of the world’s known lithium reserves. Here, lithium is found in salty brine beneath the region’s salt flats, which are among some of the driest places on Earth.

Lithium mining in the region has soared, driven by booming demand to manufacture batteries for EVs and large-scale energy storage.

Mining companies drill into the flats and pump the mineral-rich brine to the surface, where it is left under the sun in giant evaporation pools for 18 months until the lithium is concentrated enough to be extracted.

The technique is relatively cheap but requires vast amounts of land and water. More than 90% of the brine’s original water content is lost to evaporation and freshwater is needed at different stages of the process.

One study suggested that the Atacama Salt Flat in Chile is sinking by up to 2 centimetres a year because lithium-rich brine is being pumped at a faster rate than aquifers are being recharged.

    Lithium extraction in the region has led to repeated conflicts with local communities, who fear the impact of the industry on local water supplies and the region’s fragile ecosystem.

    The lithium industry’s answer is direct lithium extraction (DLE), a group of technologies that selectively extracts the silvery metal from brine without the need for vast open-air evaporation ponds. DLE, it argues, can reduce both land and water use.

    Direct lithium extraction investment is growing

    The technology is gaining considerable attention from mining companies, investors and governments as a way to reduce the industry’s environmental impacts while recovering more lithium from brine.

    DLE investment is expected to grow at twice the pace of the lithium market at large, according to research firm IDTechX.

    There are around a dozen DLE projects at different stages of development across South America. The Chilean government has made it a central pillar of its latest National Lithium Strategy, mandating its use in new mining projects.

    Last year, French company Eramet opened Centenario Ratones in northern Argentina, the first plant in the world to attempt to extract lithium solely using DLE.

    Eramet’s lithium extraction plant is widely seen as a major test of the technology. “Everyone is on the edge of their seats to see how this progresses,” said Federico Gay, a lithium analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “If they prove to be successful, I’m sure more capital will venture into the DLE space,” he said.

    More than 70 different technologies are classified as DLE. Brine is still extracted from the salt flats but is separated from the lithium using chemical compounds or sieve-like membranes before being reinjected underground.

    DLE techniques have been used commercially since 1996, but only as part of a hybrid model still involving evaporation pools. Of the four plants in production making partial use of DLE, one is in Argentina and three are in China.

    Reduced environmental footprint

    New-generation DLE technologies have been hailed as “potentially game-changing” for addressing some of the issues of traditional brine extraction.

    “DLE could potentially have a transformative impact on lithium production,” the International Lithium Association found in a recent report on the technology.

    Firstly, there is no need for evaporation pools – some of which cover an area equivalent to the size of 3,000 football pitches.

    “The land impact is minimal, compared to evaporation where it’s huge,” said Gay.

    A drone view shows Eramet’s lithium production plant at Salar Centenario in Salta, Argentina, July 4, 2024. (Photo: REUTERS/Matias Baglietto)

    A drone view shows Eramet’s lithium production plant at Salar Centenario in Salta, Argentina, July 4, 2024. (Photo: REUTERS/Matias Baglietto)

    The process is also significantly quicker and increases lithium recovery. Roughly half of the lithium is lost during evaporation, whereas DLE can recover more than 90% of the metal in the brine.

    In addition, the brine can be reinjected into the salt flats, although this is a complicated process that needs to be carefully handled to avoid damaging their hydrological balance.

    However, Gay said the commissioning of a DLE plant is currently several times more expensive than a traditional lithium brine extraction plant.

    “In theory it works, but in practice we only have a few examples,” Gay said. “Most of these companies are promising to break the cost curve and ramp up indefinitely. I think in the next two years it’s time to actually fulfill some of those promises.”

    Freshwater concerns

    However, concerns over the use of freshwater persist.

    Although DLE doesn’t require the evaporation of brine water, it often needs more freshwater to clean or cool equipment.

    A 2023 study published in the journal Nature reviewed 57 articles on DLE that analysed freshwater consumption. A quarter of the articles reported significantly higher use of freshwater than conventional lithium brine mining – more than 10 times higher in some cases.

    “These volumes of freshwater are not available in the vicinity of [salt flats] and would even pose problems around less-arid geothermal resources,” the study found.

    The company tracking energy transition minerals back to the mines

    Dan Corkran, a hydrologist at the University of Massachusetts, recently published research showing that the pumping of freshwater from the salt flats had a much higher impact on local wetland ecosystems than the pumping of salty brine. “The two cannot be considered equivalent in a water footprint calculation,” he said, explaining that doing so would “obscure the true impact” of lithium extraction.

    Newer DLE processes are “claiming to require little-to-no freshwater”, he added, but the impact of these technologies is yet to be thoroughly analysed.

    Dried-up rivers

    Last week, Indigenous communities from across South America held a summit to discuss their concerns over ongoing lithium extraction.

    The meeting, organised by the Andean Wetlands Alliance, coincided with the 14th International Lithium Seminar, which brought together industry players and politicians from Argentina and beyond.

    Indigenous representatives visited the nearby Hombre Muerto Salt Flat, which has borne the brunt of nearly three decades of lithium extraction. Today, a lithium plant there uses a hybrid approach including DLE and evaporation pools.

    Local people say the river “dried up” in the years after the mine opened. Corkran’s study linked a 90% reduction in wetland vegetation to the lithium’s plant freshwater extraction.

    Pia Marchegiani, of Argentine environmental NGO FARN, said that while DLE is being promoted by companies as a “better” technique for extraction, freshwater use remained unclear. “There are many open questions,” she said.

    AI and satellite data help researchers map world’s transition minerals rush

    Stronger regulations

    Analysts speaking to Climate Home News have also questioned the commercial readiness of the technology.

    Eramet was forced to downgrade its production projections at its DLE plant earlier this year, blaming the late commissioning of a crucial component.

    Climate Home News asked Eramet for the water footprint of its DLE plant and whether its calculations excluded brine, but it did not respond.

    For Eduardo Gigante, an Argentina-based lithium consultant, DLE is a “very promising technology”. But beyond the hype, it is not yet ready for large-scale deployment, he said.

    Strong regulations are needed to ensure that the environmental impact of the lithium rush is taken seriously, Gigante added.

    In Argentina alone, there are currently 38 proposals for new lithium mines. At least two-thirds are expected to use DLE. “If you extract a lot of water without control, this is a problem,” said Gigante. “You need strong regulations, a strong government in order to control this.”

    The post Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use  appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use 

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    Climate Change

    Maryland’s Conowingo Dam Settlement Reasserts State’s Clean Water Act Authority but Revives Dredging Debate

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    The new agreement commits $340 million in environmental investments tied to the Conowingo Dam’s long-term operation, setting an example of successful citizen advocacy.

    Maryland this month finalized a $340 million deal with Constellation Energy to relicense the Conowingo Dam in Cecil County, ending years of litigation and regulatory uncertainty. The agreement restores the state’s authority to enforce water quality standards under the Clean Water Act and sets a possible precedent for dozens of hydroelectric relicensing cases nationwide expected in coming years.

    Maryland’s Conowingo Dam Settlement Reasserts State’s Clean Water Act Authority but Revives Dredging Debate

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    Climate Change

    A Michigan Town Hopes to Stop a Data Center With a 2026 Ballot Initiative

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    Local officials see millions of dollars in tax revenue, but more than 950 residents who signed ballot petitions fear endless noise, pollution and higher electric rates.

    This is the second of three articles about Michigan communities organizing to stop the construction of energy-intensive computing facilities.

    A Michigan Town Hopes to Stop a Data Center With a 2026 Ballot Initiative

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