China’s historical emissions within its borders have now caused more global warming than the 27 member states of the EU combined, according to new Carbon Brief analysis.
The findings come amid fraught negotiations at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where negotiators have been invoking the “principle of historical responsibility” in their discussions over who should pay money towards a new goal for climate finance – and how much.
Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that 94% of the global carbon budget for 1.5C has now been used up, as cumulative emissions since 1850 have reached 2,607bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2).
While developed countries have used the majority of this budget, the analysis shows that China’s historical emissions reached 312GtCO2 in 2023, overtaking the EU’s 303GtCO2.
China is still far behind the 532GtCO2 emitted by the US, however, according to the analysis.
Indeed, China is unlikely to ever overtake the US contribution to global warming, based on current policies, committed plans and technology trends in both countries. This is even before accounting for the potential emissions-boosting policies of the incoming Trump presidency.
In addition, China’s 1.4 billion people are each responsible for 227tCO2, a third of the 682tCO2 linked to the EU’s 450 million citizens – and far below the 1,570tCO2 per capita in the US.
The new analysis follows Carbon Brief’s 2021 analysis of historical responsibility, based on emissions taking place within each country’s present-day borders or considering emissions embedded in imports. Further analysis in 2023 assigned responsibility to colonial rulers.
(A table at the end of this article shows which countries have the largest historical emissions according to the full range of metrics, including emissions per person.)
Animated chart shows the cumulative historical emissions of key countries since 1850. Credit: Joe Goodman / Carbon Brief
History matters
Historical CO2 emissions matter for climate change, because there is a finite “carbon budget” that can be released into the atmosphere before a given level of global warming is breached.
For example, in order to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, only around 2,800GtCO2 can be added to the atmosphere, counting all emissions since the pre-industrial period. (This is according to a 2023 study updating figures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.)
Cumulative emissions since 1850 will reach 2,607CO2 by the end of 2024, according to Carbon Brief’s new analysis, meaning that some 94% of the 1.5C budget will have been used up.
These cumulative historical emissions are directly and proportionally linked to the amount of global warming that has already been seen to date.
Conclusions adopted by countries at the end of the first week at COP29 also make this link, in light of 2024 being on track to be the hottest year on record:
“The [subsidiary body to the UN climate process] SBSTA…expressed utmost concern about the state of the global climate system…with 2024 being on track to be the hottest year on record, which is primarily a result of the long-term warming caused by emissions from pre-industrial times until now.”
In addition, draft text on the new climate finance goal explicitly links responsibility for global warming to finance “burden-sharing arrangements” – meaning who should pay and how much.
In one passage of a draft published on 16 November 2024, there is a reference to the “principle of historical responsibility”. Another passage says that developed-country cumulative emissions should be used as a “proxy for historic responsibility for climate change”. The draft states:
“[D]eveloped country parties shall establish burden-sharing arrangements to enable the delivery of the [new climate finance] goal based on cumulative territorial CO2 emissions…as a proxy for historic responsibility for climate change.”
An alternative option in the draft says that countries should have to contribute to the new climate finance target if they are one of the world’s “top 10 emitters” based on cumulative emissions – and if they have average per-capita incomes above a certain level.
(If agreed, this would mean China, as a top-10 historical emitter, being obliged to contribute to climate finance. However, the draft is not final and is likely to change significantly. Many parts of the draft are enclosed in square brackets, indicating that they are not agreed.)
At the annual UN climate talks, it is also common for developing countries to remind developed nations that they have used up a large share of the world’s carbon budget – and that they should, therefore, be making stronger efforts to cut their emissions.
For example, in the closing plenary of the first week at COP29, Saudi Arabia “lamented depleted carbon budgets…in light of historic cumulative emissions as well as developed countries’ insufficient mitigation efforts”, according to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.
China’s rising contribution
It is true that developed countries have been the leading contributors to historical emissions. This is despite the fact that China now has the world’s highest emissions on an annual basis.
Put another way, developed countries have made a disproportionately large contribution to current global warming, particularly when considering the number of people that live in them.
This is a key reason why the Paris Agreement says they “should continue taking the lead” on cutting their emissions – and why they must provide climate finance for developing nations.
The 1992 UN climate convention (UNFCCC) listed “developed” countries in Annex I, based on membership of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development at the time.
The convention says that the “largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries”.
Indeed, at the time of the convention being agreed in 1992, Annex I countries accounted for 22% of the world’s population and a disproportionately large 61% of historical emissions.
By the end of 2024, however, Annex I countries’ share of cumulative historical emissions will have fallen to 52% of the global total. Carbon Brief’s analysis suggests that developing countries – those outside Annex I – will account for a majority of historical emissions in roughly six years.
China’s rapidly rising contribution to cumulative emissions is a major driver of this shift.
In 1992, China’s historical emissions were around two-fifths (41%) the size of the EU’s. By 2015, when the Paris Agreement was finalised, they were still only four-fifths (80%) of the EU’s total.
By the end of 2023, Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that China’s cumulative emissions (red line in the figure below) had overtaken those from the 27 EU member states (yellow).
Still, it is worth emphasising that China’s emissions remain far behind those of the EU on a per-capita basis.
When weighting historical emissions per head of population in 2024, China’s contribution is just 227tCO2 per capita, less than a third of the 682tCO2 for people in the EU27.
(There are several other ways to measure historical contributions. These include adjustments to account for CO2 embedded in imported goods and services, or shifting responsibility under periods of colonial rule. See the table below to compare countries using different metrics.)
US still most responsible
While China is now the world’s second-largest contributor to historical emissions, ahead of the EU27, it remains far behind the US, as shown in the figure below.
With cumulative emissions of 537GtCO2 by the end of 2024, the US total is two-thirds higher than China’s and three-quarters above the EU27.
Still, China is closing the gap, given its annual emissions are now roughly double those of the US. This is clear from the slope of the curves in the chart above, where China’s line is rising steeply.
China may never overtake the US
The fact that China’s annual emissions are so much higher than those from the US begs the question of when might it overtake the US, in terms of its cumulative historical total.
A 2023 article in the Washington Post attempted to answer this question, asserting that China would overtake the US in 2050. However, it used implausible projections in which annual emissions from the US, China and Europe remained almost unchanged for decades.
To attempt a more plausible answer, Carbon Brief has used data from the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook, published in October 2024.
Specifically, Carbon Brief looked at how annual emissions in China, the US and EU27 might change under “current policy settings” in the IEA’s “stated policies scenario” (STEPS). This reflects governments’ current and committed plans, as well as the latest energy-price trends.
The dashed lines in the figure below illustrate how the annual emissions of the US, EU and China are each expected to fall steeply under those current policy settings.
Adding these annual emissions outlooks to the historical totals up to this year suggests that China may never overtake the US in terms of its cumulative emissions, as shown in the figure below.
Emissions outlooks are by their nature uncertain. For example, China’s emissions might fail to fall as fast as the IEA expects – or the US might go faster than expected.
On the other hand, the impact of the incoming Trump presidency rolling back climate rules and aiming to “drill baby, drill” would make it even less likely that China would ever overtake the US.
Whether or not China overtakes the US in terms of its historical emissions, it is unlikely to escape pressure to contribute to global flows of climate finance.
At COP29, Ding Xuexiang, Chinese president Xi Jinping’s “special representative” and the nation’s executive vice-premier, notably used the UN language of climate finance to describe Chinese overseas aid for the first time. However, China has insisted that it will only provide such finance voluntarily.
About the data
This analysis is based on historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, cement production, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), during the period 1850-2024.
The approach mirrors the methodology used for Carbon Brief’s analysis of historical responsibility according to emissions within national borders, and when considering colonial rule.
Those articles explain how it is possible to confidently estimate emissions that took place more than 100 years ago, how the analysis deals with changes in national borders, how emissions from land use can be estimated and why the analysis only starts in 1850.
As those articles illustrated, there are many different lenses through which historical responsibility for climate change can be viewed, each offering an alternative viewpoint on the world.
The table below, which is sortable and searchable, shows a selection of the different ways that historical responsibility can be carved up.
It lists countries according to population, historical emissions within their own borders, emissions after accounting for colonial responsibility and the impact of CO2 embedded in trade since 1990.
The table also shows two alternative per capita metrics. The first shows cumulative territorial emissions for each country, divided by its population in 2024. The second shows per-capita territorial emissions in each year, cumulatively added up through to the present day.
(Note that the table excludes countries with a population of less than 1 million people.)
This data is free to use under the terms of Carbon Brief’s CC licence. The licence applies to non-commercial use and requires a credit to “Carbon Brief” and a link to this article.
The post Analysis: China’s emissions have now caused more global warming than EU appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: China’s emissions have now caused more global warming than EU
Climate Change
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Blazing heat hits Europe
FANNING THE FLAMES: Wildfires “fanned by a heatwave and strong winds” caused havoc across southern Europe, Reuters reported. It added: “Fire has affected nearly 440,000 hectares (1,700 square miles) in the eurozone so far in 2025, double the average for the same period of the year since 2006.” Extreme heat is “breaking temperature records across Europe”, the Guardian said, with several countries reporting readings of around 40C.
HUMAN TOLL: At least three people have died in the wildfires erupting across Spain, Turkey and Albania, France24 said, adding that the fires have “displaced thousands in Greece and Albania”. Le Monde reported that a child in Italy “died of heatstroke”, while thousands were evacuated from Spain and firefighters “battled three large wildfires” in Portugal.
UK WILDFIRE RISK: The UK saw temperatures as high as 33.4C this week as England “entered its fourth heatwave”, BBC News said. The high heat is causing “nationally significant” water shortfalls, it added, “hitting farms, damaging wildlife and increasing wildfires”. The Daily Mirror noted that these conditions “could last until mid-autumn”. Scientists warn the UK faces possible “firewaves” due to climate change, BBC News also reported.
Around the world
- GRID PRESSURES: Iraq suffered a “near nationwide blackout” as elevated power demand – due to extreme temperatures of around 50C – triggered a transmission line failure, Bloomberg reported.
- ‘DIRE’ DOWN UNDER: The Australian government is keeping a climate risk assessment that contains “dire” implications for the continent “under wraps”, the Australian Financial Review said.
- EXTREME RAINFALL: Mexico City is “seeing one of its heaviest rainy seasons in years”, the Washington Post said. Downpours in the Japanese island of Kyushu “caused flooding and mudslides”, according to Politico. In Kashmir, flash floods killed 56 and left “scores missing”, the Associated Press said.
- SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION: China and Brazil agreed to “ensure the success” of COP30 in a recent phone call, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
- PLASTIC ‘DEADLOCK’: Talks on a plastic pollution treaty have failed again at a summit in Geneva, according to the Guardian, with countries “deadlocked” on whether it should include “curbs on production and toxic chemicals”.
15
The number of times by which the most ethnically-diverse areas in England are more likely to experience extreme heat than its “least diverse” areas, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- As many as 13 minerals critical for low-carbon energy may face shortages under 2C pathways | Nature Climate Change
- A “scoping review” examined the impact of climate change on poor sexual and reproductive health and rights in sub-Saharan Africa | PLOS One
- A UK university cut the carbon footprint of its weekly canteen menu by 31% “without students noticing” | Nature Food
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Factchecking Trump’s climate report
A report commissioned by the US government to justify rolling back climate regulations contains “at least 100 false or misleading statements”, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists. The report, compiled in two months by five hand-picked researchers, inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed” and misleadingly states that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”80
Spotlight
Does Xi Jinping care about climate change?
This week, Carbon Brief unpacks new research on Chinese president Xi Jinping’s policy priorities.
On this day in 2005, Xi Jinping, a local official in eastern China, made an unplanned speech when touring a small village – a rare occurrence in China’s highly-choreographed political culture.
In it, he observed that “lucid waters and lush mountains are mountains of silver and gold” – that is, the environment cannot be sacrificed for the sake of growth.
(The full text of the speech is not available, although Xi discussed the concept in a brief newspaper column – see below – a few days later.)
In a time where most government officials were laser-focused on delivering economic growth, this message was highly unusual.
Forward-thinking on environment
As a local official in the early 2000s, Xi endorsed the concept of “green GDP”, which integrates the value of natural resources and the environment into GDP calculations.
He also penned a regular newspaper column, 22 of which discussed environmental protection – although “climate change” was never mentioned.
This focus carried over to China’s national agenda when Xi became president.
New research from the Asia Society Policy Institute tracked policies in which Xi is reported by state media to have “personally” taken action.
It found that environmental protection is one of six topics in which he is often said to have directly steered policymaking.
Such policies include guidelines to build a “Beautiful China”, the creation of an environmental protection inspection team and the “three-north shelterbelt” afforestation programme.
“It’s important to know what Xi’s priorities are because the top leader wields outsized influence in the Chinese political system,” Neil Thomas, Asia Society Policy Institute fellow and report co-author, told Carbon Brief.
Local policymakers are “more likely” to invest resources in addressing policies they know have Xi’s attention, to increase their chances for promotion, he added.
What about climate and energy?
However, the research noted, climate and energy policies have not been publicised as bearing Xi’s personal touch.
“I think Xi prioritises environmental protection more than climate change because reducing pollution is an issue of social stability,” Thomas said, noting that “smoggy skies and polluted rivers” were more visible and more likely to trigger civil society pushback than gradual temperature increases.
The paper also said topics might not be linked to Xi personally when they are “too technical” or “politically sensitive”.
For example, Xi’s landmark decision for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is widely reported as having only been made after climate modelling – facilitated by former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua – showed that this goal was achievable.
Prior to this, Xi had never spoken publicly about carbon neutrality.
Prof Alex Wang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor of law not involved in the research, noted that emphasising Xi’s personal attention may signal “top” political priorities, but not necessarily Xi’s “personal interests”.
By not emphasising climate, he said, Xi may be trying to avoid “pushing the system to overprioritise climate to the exclusion of the other priorities”.
There are other ways to know where climate ranks on the policy agenda, Thomas noted:
“Climate watchers should look at what Xi says, what Xi does and what policies Xi authorises in the name of the ‘central committee’. Is Xi talking more about climate? Is Xi establishing institutions and convening meetings that focus on climate? Is climate becoming a more prominent theme in top-level documents?”
Watch, read, listen
TRUMP EFFECT: The Columbia Energy Exchange podcast examined how pressure from US tariffs could affect India’s clean energy transition.
NAMIBIAN ‘DESTRUCTION’: The National Observer investigated the failure to address “human rights abuses and environmental destruction” claims against a Canadian oil company in Namibia.
‘RED AI’: The Network for the Digital Economy and the Environment studied the state of current research on “Red AI”, or the “negative environmental implications of AI”.
Coming up
- 17 August: Bolivian general elections
- 18-29 August: Preparatory talks on the entry into force of the “High Seas Treaty”, New York
- 18-22 August: Y20 Summit, Johannesburg
- 21 August: Advancing the “Africa clean air programme” through Africa-Asia collaboration, Yokohama
Pick of the jobs
- Lancaster Environment Centre, senior research associate: JUST Centre | Salary: £39,355-£45,413. Location: Lancaster, UK
- Environmental Justice Foundation, communications and media officer, Francophone Africa | Salary: XOF600,000-XOF800,000. Location: Dakar, Senegal
- Politico, energy & climate editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels, Belgium
- EnviroCatalysts, meteorologist | Salary: Unknown. Location: New Delhi, India
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Climate Change
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
The specter of a “gas-for-wind” compromise between the governor and the White House is drawing the ire of residents as a deadline looms.
Hundreds of New Yorkers rallied against new natural gas pipelines in their state as a deadline loomed for the public to comment on a revived proposal to expand the gas pipeline that supplies downstate New York.
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
A “critical assessment” report commissioned by the Trump administration to justify a rollback of US climate regulations contains at least 100 false or misleading statements, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists.
The report – “A critical review of impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the US climate” – was published by the US Department of Energy (DoE) on 23 July, just days before the government laid out plans to revoke a scientific finding used as the legal basis for emissions regulation.
The executive summary of the controversial report inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed”.
It also states misleadingly that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”.
Compiled in just two months by five “independent” researchers hand-selected by the climate-sceptic US secretary of energy Chris Wright, the document has sparked fierce criticism from climate scientists, who have pointed to factual errors, misrepresentation of research, messy citations and the cherry-picking of data.
Experts have also noted the authors’ track record of promoting views at odds with the mainstream understanding of climate science.
Wright’s department claims the report – which is currently open to public comment as part of a 30-day review – underwent an “internal peer-review period amongst [the] DoE’s scientific research community”.
The report is designed to provide a scientific underpinning to one flank of the Trump administration’s plans to rescind a finding that serves as the legal prerequisite for federal emissions regulation. (The second flank is about legal authority to regulate emissions.)
The “endangerment finding” – enacted by the Obama administration in 2009 – states that six greenhouse gases are contributing to the net-negative impacts of climate change and, thus, put the public in danger.
In a press release on 29 July, the US Environmental Protection Agency said “updated studies and information” set out in the new report would “challenge the assumptions” of the 2009 finding.
Carbon Brief asked a wide range of climate scientists, including those cited in the “critical review” itself, to factcheck the report’s various claims and statements.
The post Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-trumps-climate-report-includes-more-than-100-false-or-misleading-claims/
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