Mariana Paoli, from Brazil, is the Global Advocacy Lead at Christian Aid and Iskander Erzini Vernoit, from Morocco, is the Executive Director at the IMAL Initiative for Climate and Development.
Government negotiators in Bonn will discuss in the coming two weeks how to put into practice an idea that emerged from the corridors of the COP29 climate talks: “the Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3 Trillion”.
This exercise, that aims to propose approaches for scaling climate finance flows for developing countries to over a trillion dollars per year by 2035, is due to be presented at COP30 in Brazil this November. The origins of its mandate offer insights into its perils – as well as its promise.
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Initially, negotiators from the G77+China countries united behind Africa’s call for $1.3 trillion as the replacement for the $100-billion goal for annual mobilisation of climate finance by developed countries for developing nations, set 15 years ago. Faithful to this, some G77 countries originally called for a roadmap to indicate actions that developed countries might take to raise public finance resources for this provision and mobilisation for the Global South.
There were, however, those in the Global North who pushed for a broader, less well-defined $1.3 trillion target that would include other sources and types of finance. These forces ultimately won the day, resulting in a final decision on $1.3 trillion that calls for “all finance” from “all … sources”, establishing a “roadmap” process toward this.
Exceedingly disappointing for the Global South, this new formulation obfuscates the responsibility of wealthy historical emitters to pay their fair share of public finance to tackle a proble they have caused and risks shifting the burden to developing countries.
Loss and damage threat
In this context, the Roadmap to 1.3T has the potential to be a milestone in the global governance of climate finance. Yet it faces risks and opportunities, being essentially at the discretion of Azerbaijan and Brazil as the COP29 and COP 30 presidencies.
There is a very real risk that the Roadmap will fall short of sending a strong signal of what level of ambition is required, in terms of public finance from contributor countries. If that happens, the Roadmap could entrench injustice, increase debt burdens, and delay urgent action on climate change.
In terms of injustice, poorer countries, while largely not responsible for climate change, could face loss and damage of $450 billion-$900 billion per year before 2030, not including the costs of reducing emissions and adapting to global warming.
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Within this, Africa’s nomadic pastoral communities are one real-life example of those whose livelihoods and way of life are being destroyed by the choices of others. The COP29 decision on the new climate finance goal disregarded their needs by not including a target for loss and damage funding, but the Roadmap need not.
Heavy debt burden
The Roadmap must not ignore that external debts are at record highs, with repayment costs now higher than capacities for repayment in two-thirds of developing countries, according to UNCTAD.
In 2023, African governments paid around 17% of their revenues on servicing debts, the highest levels in decades, equalling 15% of African export earnings. By comparison, after the Second World War, inspired by the work of Keynes and others, it was decided to cap Germany’s debt repayments at 3% of its exports earnings, to allow recovery.
In this context, Global South countries may lack the fiscal space to invest in essential climate action – or may prioritise other areas, such as healthcare or education.
COP30 President-designate Andrea Corrêa do Lago is correct in his assertion that there is too often a denial of the economic benefits of climate action – yet Global South countries are not always able to pursue economically beneficial investments. Markets are not always efficient, economic benefits do not always equal revenues for investors , and the cost of capital is higher in Global South countries, heightening the need for support, especially with upfront costs.
Framework to scale up finance
Of course, in addition to underscoring the necessity of rich countries increasing their provision of grant-equivalent public funds for poorer countries, for the reasons cited above, the Roadmap can point to opportunities to build the architecture for scaling finance.
Reforming the international financial architecture is important, but, to achieve this, wealthy countries must relinquish their current hegemony and drop their resistance to reform in the negotiations for a UN tax convention and in those around the potential UN sovereign debt workout mechanism that could be agreed at the upcoming Financing for Development (FFD) Conference in Seville.
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Further additions to the financial architecture could include country platforms, aimed at unlocking finance, particularly private investment – but these require resourcing to administer and will only reaffirm the need for catalytic public resources, whether for technical assistance, project preparation, or making finance more affordable.
Of course, current politics are not conducive to increasing international provision of grant-equivalent finance, with recent short-sighted decisions taking overseas aid even further away from the global target for countries to provide assistance equal to 0.7% of their gross national income, established over fifty years ago, despite public support.
Naturally, Global South countries should not hold their breath waiting for others to come to their senses, but should do what they can, including South-South cooperation.
Bold signal needed
And yet, if global temperature goals are not to slip out of reach, if climate action is to be enhanced and injustice and indebtedness curtailed, richer countries must step up on finance. Will the Roadmap affirm this? The COP presidencies have yet to give a firm indication, though have called for inputs from finance ministers and other key groupings through ongoing consultations.
To be successful, there must be a willingness to depart from the status quo — just as was demonstrated with the Paris Agreement and the UAE Consensus, which set ambitious goals to limit global temperature rise and accelerate energy transition, respectively. Even amid uncertainty, these agreements raised the standard for ambition instead of passively allowing low expectations to go unchallenged.
A comparable approach is now needed for international public finance – the Baku-to-Belem Roadmap must send a bold signal of what is required, lest a key opportunity be lost.
The post A COP30 roadmap to inaction or ambition on climate finance? appeared first on Climate Home News.
In recent years, the monsoon season in Pakistan has taken a new and dangerous turn.
July and August typically bring high levels of rainfall across the country, and while flooding isn’t uncommon, the extent and severity could be readily predicted.
These patterns have now changed. In 2022, extreme rainfall swept Pakistan and huge swathes of the country were under water. Sindh province experienced levels of rain 508% above average for the time of year.
Extreme weather in Pakistan is becoming the norm. The past 15 years have brought widespread flooding, loss of life and billions in financial costs. A post-disaster report, produced by the Pakistan Government, stated that the 2022 floods were “a wake-up call for systemic changes to address the underlying vulnerabilities to natural hazards”, citing the country’s lack of climate-resilient infrastructure.
But heavy rainfall is only one of the water-related issues that Pakistan faces. In a country with huge geographical diversity, from sweltering deserts to freezing mountain tops, the water stresses are equally as varied. In many regions the key concern is a lack of reliable, clean water that can be used to grow crops and feed families.
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The risks of the Indus
The Indus River plays a critical role in Pakistan. This major artery travels almost the entire length of the country, an estimated 2,000 km, from the Himalayas to the Arabian Sea. It is a crucial economic lever, supporting nearly 90% of Pakistan’s food production and 25% of its overall GDP. What happens to this river – both human and natural impacts – has huge consequences for the rest of the country.
The government and civil society agree that urgent action is required to protect Pakistan’s fragile water resources. A new adaptation project – SAFER Pakistan – is seeking to address these concerns with solutions that can be used to solve similar climate-related issues elsewhere.
The US$ 10 million project is led by ICIMOD, an intergovernmental research centre, alongside UNICEF, and financed by the Adaptation Fund. The intention is to tackle six key issues that people face in the Indus Basin: cryosphere risks, drying springs, groundwater, pollution, unsustainable water use, and community resilience.
In practice this means exploring different solutions that put communities in control of their own adaptive capacity. One solution under development is the use of community early warning systems.
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A warning sign
According to researchers, early warning systems “aim to empower affected communities against hazards and help them to sufficiently prepare before disasters strike.”
The northern provinces of Pakistan – Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – are the main focus for testing these systems. In this mountainous region the Indus is fed by thousands of glaciers which sustain water flow during the dry season. At the same time, increased temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns are changing how these glaciers behave, leading to avalanches, increased snowmelt, and landslides.
As glaciers start to melt due to climate change, they can form large lakes high up on the mountain that can pose a serious threat to the communities living below. When these natural dams fail, huge quantities of water come careening down the mountain, a phenomenon called glacial lake outburst flood.
The SAFER project is exploring how to use local knowledge and observations of the mountain to ensure people know how and when to evacuate when these outbursts occur. This human intelligence will be combined with data from remote sensors to save lives and livelihoods. In total, over 435,000 people will be impacted by the project.
“Early warning systems often serve as the backbone of a multi-faceted response to reduce climate disaster risk,” commented Mikko Ollikainen, head of the Adaptation Fund. “But local information is often just as valuable as the real-time data you receive from sensors or satellites,” he added.
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Shaping an effective response
Community early warning systems – together with other preventive adaptation measures – are proving a popular solution to extreme weather events.
A separate adaptation project in the mountains of Central Asia is grappling with the same problem of glacial flooding. In this case, with US$6.5 million in funding from the Adaptation Fund, UNESCO has been implementing early warning systems across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan for the past five years, with considerable success.
Diana Aripkhanova, a project officer at UNESCO, and based in Kazakhstan, told Climate Home that glacier lake outburst floods “represent an increasing climate-related hazard across the high mountain regions of Central Asia”.
“These events can trigger destructive floods and debris flows that affect downstream communities, infrastructure, and livelihoods,” she added.
The project utilises real-time data drawn from weather monitoring stations with community preparedness to shape a fast and effective response to life-threatening flooding. This includes training people on evacuation routes, safe locations and simulation drills. In addition, the project has tried preventative measures such as planting hundreds of trees in valleys prone to landslides to provide greater stabilisation.
In total, four early warning systems have been installed across the four countries involved in the project covering seven high-risk areas. As a result, UNESCO estimates these systems are protecting over 100,000 people.
“Early warning systems are a key risk reduction measure, allowing communities to evacuate in time and reduce potential loss of life and damage to assets,” added Aripkhanova.
Community participation
The active role of each community is built into these interventions. Ensuring local people are core contributors is seen as crucial to building long-term climate resilience.
These communities are witnessing the threats from climate change materialise on a yearly basis, and researchers are now tapping into that understanding when implementing adaptation projects.
After the 2022 floods, Pakistan’s development minister, Ahsan Iqbal, wrote that “there is an opportunity to do things differently” and that “enhancing Pakistan’s resilience to shocks and stresses amidst climate change, especially for the poorest…is essential for the country’s future.”
The climate shocks remain as strong as ever, but using the right tools and simple solutions can soften the blow when they occur.
Adam Wentworth is a freelancer writer based in Brighton, UK
The post Early warning systems are saving lives in Central Asia appeared first on Climate Home News.
From the Amazon to the Mekong, migratory freshwater fish underpin food security for millions, but over 300 species need urgent conservation intervention, warns a new UN report.
Beneath the surface of the planet’s rivers and lakes, the historically heaving migrations of freshwater fish are thinning out. The blubbery-lipped Siamese giant carp of Asia’s Mekong River, the mottled brown goonch of India’s Ganges and the ancient-in-appearance beluga sturgeon of Europe’s Danube River are declining.
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Reporting supported by the Water Desk at the University of Colorado, Boulder.
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