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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Key ‘mutirão’ text emerges

‘MUTIRÃO’ 2.0: After many late nights, but little progress – and a dramatic fire at the COP30 venue – the much-awaited second draft of the summit’s key agreement, called the “mutirão” text, finally dropped this morning. The new mutirão text “calls for efforts to triple adaptation finance” by 2030 and would launch a presidency-led “Belém mission to 1.5C” alongside a voluntary “implementation accelerator”, as well as a series of “dialogues” on trade. It “decides to establish” a two-year work programme on climate finance, including on a key section of the Paris Agreement called Article 9.1, but has a footnote saying this will not “prejudge” how the climate finance goal agreed last year is met.

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A two-week, all-access package designed for those who need much more than headlines.

ROADMAPS TO NOWHERE: The latest draft does not refer to the idea of a “fossil-fuel roadmap”, which is not on the COP30 agenda, but has been pushed by Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and a group of parties (see below). A letter to the presidency, seen by Carbon Brief and reportedly backed by at least 29 countries, including Colombia, Germany, Palau, Mexico and the UK, says: “We cannot support an outcome that does not include a roadmap [on fossil fuels].” It also flags the lack of a roadmap on deforestation. The letter asks for a revised text.

PLENARY WHEN: The latest draft of the mutirão text is unlikely to be the last. There is also a set of draft decisions that have not been fully resolved. For instance, this morning, the Brazilian COP presidency floated a draft decision on what it is calling the “Belém gender action plan”, with three brackets versus the 496 brackets in the previous version. At a short, informal stocktaking plenary, COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago invited countries to react to the drafts in a “mutirão” meeting, namely, in the “spirit of cooperation”. But expect all timings to be flexible, as they work to iron out differences in closed-door meetings.

Adaptation COP

TRIPLING TARGET: A new text for the global goal on adaptation dropped alongside the mutirão text this morning, after days of tense negotiations. Crucially, it includes the adoption of some of the indicators, which will be used to track countries’ progress on adaptation. Last week, the African Group and others called for the indicators not to be adopted at COP30 – one of the key expectations ahead of the summit – and, instead, a two-year work programme to further refine them due to concerns around adaptation finance.

INDICATORS: The latest text adopts an annex of 59 of the potential 100 indicators, emphasises that they “do not create new financial obligations or commitments” and decides to establish a two-year “Belém-Addis vision” on adaptation to further refine the indicators. The only remaining bracket within the text is to allow for the addition of the final adaptation finance target from the mutirão – which, currently, “calls for efforts to triple adaptation finance compared to 2025 levels by 2030”.

WHAM BAM: The latest text for another key negotiating stream on the “just transition work programme” (JTWP) “decides to develop a just transition mechanism”. This has been a point of particular contention within negotiations. Civil society developed the concept of the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM) over the past year and the G77 and China, a large group of global-south nations, tabled it within the JTWP in the first week. However, there was pushback from the EU, UK and others, with the former instead proposing an “action plan” as an alternative.

CRITICAL MINERALS: While landing on the inclusion of a mechanism is being welcomed by civil society and others, the latest text removes the reference to critical minerals included in its predecessor. If included, it would be the first time a reference to “critical minerals” is adopted in the JTWP.

Around the COP

  • Turkey will host COP31, while Australia will take on the presidency and lead the negotiations, under a compromise deal reached between the two nations on Thursday, Reuters reported.
  • Brazil set out a plan before COP30 to reform the “action agenda” – which includes 117 “plans to accelerate solutions” outside of the negotiations, covering everything from fossil-fuel phaseout to “sustainable diets for all”. On Wednesday, the presidency rounded off a series of events that have been used to promote this vision.
  • China called for the creation of a “practical roadmap” for delivering climate finance by developed countries, which delegation head Li Gao said would help “prevent further erosion of trust between developed and developing countries”. 
  • An estimated 70,000 people marched in 32C heat in Belém on Saturday, marking the largest COP protest since COP26 in Glasgow.

52

The number of COP30 agenda items that had been agreed by the time DeBriefed was sent to readers.

51

The number of COP30 agenda items not yet agreed.


Latest climate research

  • A five-year drought in Iran and around the Euphrates and Tigris basins “would have been very rare” without human-caused climate change | World Weather Attribution
  • Integrating nature-based solutions into urban planning could reduce daytime temperatures by 2C during hot periods | Nature Cities
  • Warming of the “deep Greenland basin” has exerted “obvious impacts” on the deep waters of the Arctic Ocean | Science Advances

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

This week saw the Brazilian presidency pledge to conclude some of the most controversial issues at COP30 a whole two days early. In the end, no early deal materialised. As the event approaches its official end time later today, with none of the major negotiations finished, this chart serves to remind that COPs have not finished on time for more than two decades.

Spotlight

‘Roadmaps’ explained

This week, Carbon Brief explains the push for new “roadmaps” away from fossil fuels and deforestation at COP30.

Speaking during the world leaders summit in Belém ahead of COP30, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said that the world “need[s] roadmaps to justly and strategically reverse deforestation [and] overcome dependence on fossil fuels”.

His words appeared to spark a movement of countries to call for new roadmaps away from fossil fuels and deforestation to feature as key outcomes of this COP – despite not being on the official agenda for the negotiations.

While momentum for each roadmap has grown, they were referenced only as an option in the first version of COP30’s key text, called the “global mutirão” – and in the second version the reference to roadmaps has disappeared entirely.

Below, Carbon Brief explains the origins of each roadmap, how support for them has grown and how they might feature in COP’s final outcome.

Fossil-fuel roadmap

Most people cite Lula’s pre-COP speech as the start of the movement for a fossil-fuel roadmap.

However, an observer close to the process told Carbon Brief that the COP30 presidency had, in fact, been consulting on the possibility of a roadmap months earlier – drawing help from the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, a small group of nations who have pledged to phase out all fossil fuels.

While Brazil was the first country to support the fossil-fuel roadmap, it was joined in the first few days of COP by eight Latin American countries that form the Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC) and by the Environmental Integrity Group (EIG), which includes Mexico, Liechtenstein, Monaco, South Korea, Switzerland and Georgia.

The call for a roadmap was also backed by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a group of 39 small low-lying island nations.

As momentum grew, the first global mutirão text appeared on Wednesday 19 November. Paragraph 35 of the text listed three options for where a reference to a fossil-fuel roadmap map might be incorporated, including one option for “no text”.

Later that day, ministers and climate envoys from more than 20 countries united for a packed-out press conference, where they called the current reference to the fossil-fuel roadmap “weak”, adding that it must be “strengthened and adopted”.

At the sidelines of the conference, UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte told journalists that around 80 countries now backed the call for a roadmap. (Carbon Brief obtained the list of 82 countries that have expressed their support.)

However, COP30 CEO Ana Toni told a press conference later that day that a “great majority” of country groups they had consulted saw a fossil-fuel roadmap as a “red line”.

In an interview with Carbon Brief, Dr Osama Faqeeha, deputy environment minister for Saudi Arabia, refused to be drawn on whether a fossil-fuel roadmap was a red line, but said:

“I think the issue is the emissions, it’s not the fuel. And our position is that we have to cut emissions regardless.”

The next day, the EU officially threw its weight behind the call for a fossil-fuel roadmap, after initial delay caused by hesitation to join the movement from Italy and Poland, Climate Home News reported.

The EU circulated its own proposal for how a fossil-fuel roadmap could be referenced in the global mutirão text, the publication added.

However, the latest version of the global mutirão text, released today, does not reference a roadmap at all. It has already sparked condemnation from a range of countries and observers.

It is expected that at least one more iteration of the text will emerge before the COP30 presidency attempts to find agreement, which could see a reference to the roadmap reappear.

Deforestation roadmap

While Lula called for roadmaps away from both fossil fuels and deforestation, the latter has received less attention, with one observer joking to Carbon Brief it had become the “sad forgotten cousin”.

A roadmap away from deforestation was originally only backed by Brazil, the EIG and AILAC.

However, the EU became a relatively early backer – announcing its support for a deforestation roadmap before a fossil-fuel roadmap.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo – one of the world’s “megadiverse” nations and one of the countries responsible for the Congo rainforest – has also announced its support. (See Carbon Brief’s list of supporters.)

As with the fossil-fuel roadmap, a reference to a deforestation roadmap appeared in the first iteration of the mutirão text, but has disappeared from the second. It may – or may not – appear in another version of the text before COP30’s finale.

Watch, read, listen

FOREST TALES: In a new video series from Earthday.org and the Pulitzer Centre, three investigative journalists discussed their reporting on deforestation in Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

AI IMPACTS: Google CEO, Sundar Pichai, spoke to BBC News about the climate impacts of AI, among other topics.

MISSING DATA: Columnist George Monbiot wrote in the Guardian about the “vast black hole” of climate data in some parts of the world – which he says is a “gift” to climate deniers.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 21 November 2025: [COP30 DeBriefed] ‘Mutirão’ text latest; ‘Roadmaps’ explained; COP finish times plotted appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 21 November 2025: [COP30 DeBriefed] ‘Mutirão’ text latest; ‘Roadmaps’ explained; COP finish times plotted

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Women must be a starting point, not an afterthought, for adaptation

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Alexandria Gordon is manager of policy and development at the Women’s Environment & Development Organization) and Demet Intepe, PhD, is a climate adaptation and resilience expert with Practical Action.

If the world genuinely intends to help people adapt to climate change, including women cannot be treated as optional. It must be the starting point for every plan and policy.

Across the Global South, climate impacts are already reshaping daily life. Floods, droughts and heatwaves are destroying homes, crops and livelihoods.

Evidence consistently shows that when women and girls participate fully in adaptation efforts, entire societies benefit. Putting gender at the centre makes adaptation stronger, more equitable, and more sustainable.

COP30 was expected to cement this understanding. Touted as “the COP of Adaptation,” it fell far short. Once again, decisions were made without meaningful consideration for the people already facing the harshest climate impacts. Communities trying to protect their homes, harvests and livelihoods are still denied the resources and action they urgently need.

“Coordinated backlash”: Activists say COP30 gender spat reflects wider threat

The UN Environment Programme’s annual Adaptation Gap Report outlines the scale of investment required to address escalating climate risks. What remains missing is political will – the willingness to respond to communities already facing loss, and to acknowledge that adaptation fails without women because it ignores half the knowledge and leadership societies depend on.

Women are central to decisions about land, food, water, care and community organising on farms, in markets, in local government, cooperatives or social movements. When their rights, voices and priorities are excluded, policies address only part of the risk, funding bypasses those best placed to use it, and solutions fail to reflect how communities actually adapt.

Women leading adaptation on the ground

Purnima Rani Biswas in Bangladesh rebuilt her livelihood after Cyclone Amphan devastated her village in 2020. When floodwaters finally receded, she and her community received training to restore their fields and strengthen resilience. Purnima began growing crops on elevated dykes above future flood levels.

Her success inspired neighbours, proving that farming on shifting, flood‑prone land is possible. Recovery has been slow, but the community now believes adaptation is achievable.

Saraswati Sonar, chair of her local Community Disaster Management Committee in Nepal, plays a crucial role in keeping her community safe. She regularly contacts government hotlines for weather updates and alerts elderly people, pregnant women, and families with young children when evacuation is necessary. Her leadership ensures timely, life‑saving action.

These examples show that women are not passive victims of climate change ­- they are active agents of resilience.

What gender‑responsive adaptation really means

Language shapes action. Terms like “gender‑sensitive” often become symbolic rather than transformative. “Gender‑responsive,” however, demands concrete action. It means:

  • Integrating gender as a priority across planning, budgeting, implementation, and monitoring  
  • Recognising unequal access to land, income, technology, mobility and decision‑making, and how these shape people’s ability to adapt
  • Acknowledging who grows food, collects water, rebuilds homes, and who is left behind during crises.

Gender-responsive adaptation is not about elevating women above others. It is about making climate policy effective. Without women, climate action fails – and risks deepening existing inequalities rather than reducing vulnerability.

Yet at COP30, some governments resisted the term “gender-responsive,” preferring weaker language that allows them to avoid meaningful commitments to equity and justice.

Purnima Rani Biswas harvests bitter gourd (Photo: Practical Action)

Purnima Rani Biswas harvests bitter gourd (Photo: Practical Action)

What COP30 achieved and where it fell short

Despite major shortcomings, COP30 delivered a few important steps for gender and adaptation. A new Gender Action Plan was adopted, intended to help mainstream gender across national plans and global policies. Its impact will depend on whether governments implement it meaningfully.

Under the Global Goal on Adaptation, countries adopted 59 indicators to track progress, including a gender-specific indicator. This is a significant step forward: for the first time, global reporting will show whether national adaptation policies are genuinely gender-responsive.

Tripling adaptation finance is just the start – delivery is what matters

However, progress was uneven. National Adaptation Plans moved in the wrong direction, with gender commitments weakened and made conditional “only when applicable”, rather than central. This risks sidelining gender entirely unless civil society holds governments to account.

Adaptation finance was COP30’s biggest failure. The decision to “triple adaptation finance by 2035” remains vague and falls short of meeting adaptation needs. The Adaptation Fund, a leader in integrating gender into climate finance, received pledges of only around $135 million – less than half its $300 million target. Without predictable, grant-based finance, even the strongest plans cannot reach the communities that need them most.

What needs to happen next

Real adaptation happens in homes, fields, forests and coastal villages, not in negotiation rooms. Communities living through climate impacts already know what works. Community‑led, gender‑just approaches consistently reduce climate risk and build resilience.

To turn the Gender Action Plan’s commitments into action, governments must:

  • Make gender-responsive adaptation non‑negotiable
  • Invest in locally led solutions that prioritise community leadership and women’s intergenerational knowledge
  • Ensure finance reaches frontline communities without creating new debt
  • Use the GGA indicators to strengthen transparency and accountability

Organisations such as the Women’s Environment and Development Organization and Practical Action already work with communities using rights-based, gender-just approaches that reflect local needs and priorities. It is crucial for organisations that work directly with most impacted communities to be part of conversations on adaptation, including countries’ policy development.

From commitments to action

For COP decisions to matter, they must translate into action on the ground. Adaptation can no longer remain the slow lane of climate action, and gender can no longer be sidelined. Every global decision and national action must now be intentionally gender-responsive.

Why adaptation fails without women is no mystery. The question is who will act on what we already know?

The post Women must be a starting point, not an afterthought, for adaptation appeared first on Climate Home News.

Women must be a starting point, not an afterthought, for adaptation

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Bridging Knowledge Systems: Indigenous Nations and Academia Collaborate on Climate Research in Canada

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On the tundra in Inuit Nunangat, an Elder kneels by thinning sea ice, pointing to the cracks forming earlier each spring. Nearby, community youth work with researchers to set up monitoring equipment that tracks ice thickness, temperature shifts, and permafrost thaw. Together, they are documenting climate change not from separate vantage points, but in conversation, where Inuit knowledge of the land and Western science meet.

Across Canada, such collaborations are on the rise. Indigenous Nations and academic institutions are joining forces to confront climate change, weaving together Indigenous ways of knowing with scientific methods. These partnerships hold immense promise: they deepen understanding, inform adaptation strategies, and strengthen resilience for both Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities. But they also raise urgent questions about ethics, ownership, and how to move beyond colonial legacies that have historically extracted and exploited Indigenous knowledge.

The Promise and Pitfalls of Collaboration

When done respectfully, Indigenous–academic partnerships generate knowledge that neither system could produce alone. Indigenous expertise, rooted in millennia of relationship with land, water, and sky, offers insights into biodiversity, ecosystem health, and patterns of climate change that Western science is only beginning to measure. Meanwhile, academic research provides tools like data modelling, satellite mapping, and policy advocacy that can elevate Indigenous voices in national and global decision-making spaces.

Yet the pitfalls are significant. Indigenous intellectual property (IP), the stories, practices, symbols, and innovations that belong to Indigenous Peoples, has too often been taken without consent, acknowledgment, or benefit. In Canadian history, knowledge of plants, medicines, and land-use practices has been extracted and patented, leaving communities with nothing but loss and mistrust. These harms are not distant memories; they shape the caution and hesitation many Indigenous Nations feel when approached by universities today.

For Indigenous communities, protecting IP is not only about legal safeguards. It is about sovereignty: the right to control how knowledge is shared, by whom, and for whose benefit. Without this, collaboration risks reproducing the very colonial patterns it claims to resist.

Academia’s Growing Commitment to Ethical Partnerships

Thankfully, many Canadian academic institutions are beginning to come to terms with this history and adopt new approaches to research. Universities are developing frameworks and policies that embed principles of respect and accountability, such as:

  • Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC): Research can only proceed with the voluntary and fully informed agreement of Indigenous Nations.
  • Respect for Indigenous data sovereignty: Communities must control how data is stored, accessed, and used.
  • Co-creation of research questions and methods: Projects must be shaped together, not imposed by academics.
  • Equitable sharing of benefits and authorship: Indigenous collaborators must be credited and compensated fairly.
  • Long-term accountability: Partnerships should outlast funding cycles and continue to serve community priorities.

This shift is not perfect, nor is it complete. But the trajectory is encouraging: Indigenous governance and ethics are increasingly central to climate research in Canada.

Consequences of Collaboration: Good and Bad

The outcomes of these partnerships are not abstract. They have real consequences for climate action on the ground. Where research has gone wrong, communities recall sacred sites being surveyed without consent, knowledge of medicinal plants being patented for corporate use, and environmental studies that used Indigenous stories but excluded Indigenous voices from authorship. These failures reinforce mistrust and make communities wary of outsiders.

By contrast, when done well, collaboration strengthens both knowledge and resilience. For example:

  • The Kainai Nation and the University of Calgary collaborate on drought adaptation, combining climate modelling with traditional food system knowledge to develop locally grounded strategies.
  • The Tłı̨chǫ Government and Carleton University are monitoring permafrost thaw in the Northwest Territories, where Indigenous knowledge guides interpretation while scientific tools quantify the scale of change.
  • The Anishinabek Nation and Lakehead University collaborate to restore wild rice beds, combining ecological monitoring with stewardship practices that sustain both ecosystems and culture.

These projects illustrate what is possible when Indigenous leadership is respected and academic expertise is aligned with community priorities.

Youth, Future Generations, and the Global Context

Collaboration is not only about research results, but also about building capacity for future generations. Training Indigenous youth in both traditional and scientific methods ensures continuity of stewardship and opens pathways into climate sciences, data analysis, engineering, and policy. This intergenerational transfer is critical, as it is young people who will live most directly with the consequences of climate change.
Canada is not alone in this work. Around the world, Indigenous communities are leading partnerships with academia. Māori researchers in Aotearoa, New Zealand, develop coastal restoration strategies grounded in whakapapa (genealogy), and Sámi leaders in Scandinavia combine herding knowledge with climate models to track changes in snow and migration patterns.

Canada has an opportunity and a responsibility to lead globally by embedding Indigenous governance within research institutions and climate policy.

What Indigenous Communities Should Consider

When invited into research collaborations, Indigenous Nations should feel empowered to set terms, ask questions, and safeguard their knowledge. Key considerations include:

  • Consent: Has Free, Prior, and Informed Consent been obtained, clearly and respectfully?
  • Intellectual Property: Who owns the data and knowledge? How will it be used, stored, and protected?
  • Community Benefit: Does this project address our priorities and bring tangible benefits to our people?
  • Co-creation: Were we part of shaping the questions and methods, or are we being slotted into a pre-existing framework?
  • Cultural Protocol: Are researchers prepared to follow our laws, ceremonies, and privacy requirements?
  • Data Sovereignty: Will data remain under our governance?
  • Capacity Building: Will this train our youth, employ our people, or build local expertise?
  • Publication Rights: Do we have control over how findings are published, and will our members be acknowledged as co-authors?
  • Exit Plan: What happens when the project ends? Will knowledge, data, and benefits remain with us?

These questions are not barriers; they are safeguards to ensure collaboration is ethical, reciprocal, and grounded in Indigenous sovereignty.

Strengthening Indigenous–Academic Partnerships

To move forward, Canada must think beyond project-by-project partnerships and build systemic change built in true collaboration with Indigenous-led initiatives such as:

  • Embedding Indigenous governance in research ethics boards.
  • Supporting Indigenous-led research universities and centres of excellence.
  • Creating funding streams that prioritize Indigenous research sovereignty.
  • Establishing national policy frameworks to protect Indigenous knowledge.
  • Formalizing spaces for reciprocal knowledge exchange that place Indigenous and Western knowledge systems on equal footing.

These steps shift collaboration from a transactional to a transformational approach.

A Call to Action

The convergence of Indigenous knowledge and academic research offers immense promise in confronting climate change. Together, these systems can generate insights grounded in centuries of relational stewardship and sharpened by scientific rigour. But true collaboration demands more than goodwill. It requires dismantling colonial patterns, affirming Indigenous intellectual sovereignty, and ensuring that research benefits the lands and peoples from which it arises.

To academia: move beyond consultation and share governance of research with Indigenous Nations.

To governments: fund Indigenous-led research and respect Indigenous sovereignty in climate policy.

To Indigenous Nations: know your power, set the terms, protect your knowledge, and demand reciprocity.

The path forward shines brightest when Indigenous and academic knowledge systems walk side by side. If Canada adopts this model, the future will not only be more just, but also more resilient for the land, the waters, and future generations.

Blog by Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock

Image Credit : Julian Gentile, Unsplash

The post Bridging Knowledge Systems: Indigenous Nations and Academia Collaborate on Climate Research in Canada appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.

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“New era of climate extremes” as global warming fuels devastating impacts in 2025

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In 2025, greenhouse gas emissions produced by human activities turned what should have been a cooler year into one of the hottest ever, fuelling more dangerous and frequent heatwaves, droughts, storms and wildfires, climate scientists said in an annual report.

Planet-heating emissions primarily caused by burning fossil fuels pushed temperatures this year to “extremely high” levels, worsening extreme weather with devastating consequences – especially for the world’s most vulnerable, concluded scientists working with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group.

Despite the return of La Niña – a climate pattern linked to large-scale cooling of the Pacific Ocean, which can temporarily bring milder global temperatures – the EU monitoring service Copernicus has said 2025 is “virtually certain” to end as the second- or third-warmest year on record.

Nine of our best climate stories from 2025

In its report released on Tuesday, the WWA research group found that climate change made 17 of the 22 extreme weather events it assessed this year more severe or more likely, while its remaining studies were inconclusive, mostly due to a lack of weather data from remote areas.

Ranging from heatwaves in South Sudan and Western Europe to extreme rainfall in Southeast Asia and wildfires in Los Angeles, those disasters killed thousands of people and displaced millions from their homes.

In 2025, the World Weather Attribution group studied 22 new extreme weather events and revisited 6 heatwaves for a special report

In 2025, the World Weather Attribution group studied 22 new extreme weather events and revisited 6 heatwaves for a special report

11 extra hot days since Paris Agreement

Theodore Keeping, a researcher at Imperial College London, said the catastrophic wildfires, record-breaking rainfall, unprecedented temperatures and devastating hurricanes seen in the last 12 months provide “undeniable evidence” of a rapidly changing global environment.

“We are living in the climate that scientists warned about a decade ago, when the Paris Agreement was signed,” he added.

Since the landmark accord was adopted in 2015, global average temperatures have risen by about 0.3C, and the world now experiences an average of 11 additional hot days each year, according to WWA’s research.

    For the first time, global average temperatures over the last three years are on track to exceed 1.5C, the most ambitious goal governments agreed in Paris, according to the EU’s Copernicus service. The UK’s Met Office expects 2026 to be between 1.34C and 1.58C hotter than preindustrial levels.

    “The continuous rise in greenhouse gas emissions has pushed our climate into a new, more extreme state, where even small increases in global temperatures now trigger disproportionately severe impacts,” said Sjoukje Philip, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). “We are entering a new era of climate extremes, where what was once an anomaly is quickly becoming the norm,” she added.

    Silent-killer heatwaves

    While heatwaves don’t leave a visible trail of destruction and often go underreported, the research group found they were the deadliest extreme weather event of 2025. One study estimated that climate change more than tripled the number of deaths caused by searing temperatures recorded across Europe this summer.

    In South Sudan, extreme heat forced schools to close for two weeks in February 2025 after dozens of children collapsed with heatstroke. Human-made climate change made that heatwave 4C hotter and transformed an exceptionally rare event into a common one, now expected to happen every other year in South Sudan, a WWA assessment found.

    Keeping of Imperial said the impacts are disproportionately shouldered by women and girls who predominantly work in sectors with high heat exposure such as agriculture and street-vending.

    Flood risks rise as adaptation limits near

    Floods were the disasters most studied by the WWA team in 2025, with devastating downpours made worse by climate change hitting Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, the Mississippi River Valley in the US and Botswana.

    In the Southern African nation, spells of extreme rainfall are becoming more frequent within a single year, while the rapid expansion of urban centres without adequate infrastructure upgrades makes them more susceptible to severe flooding, according to WWA.

    The research group said this underscores the urgency of investing in measures to adapt to a warming world which can prevent many deaths and widespread destruction but remain critically underfunded.

    However, the scientists also warned that even strong efforts to prepare for disasters cannot prevent all impacts, as climate change is already pushing millions close to the “limits of adaptation”.

    “Jamaica was in a state of preparedness for Hurricane Melissa five days before landfall,” noted Keeping, “but when such an intense storm hits a small island nation in the Caribbean, even high levels of preparedness cannot prevent extreme losses and damages”.

    Fossil fuel dependency is “costing lives”

    Hurricane Melissa caused an estimated $8.8 billion in physical damage in Jamaica, equal to 41% of the country’s 2024 GDP, with only a small share of the losses expected to be covered by innovative insurance schemes.

    In their report, WWA researchers said that drastically reducing fossil fuel emissions remains the key policy to prevent the worst climate impacts.

    “Decision-makers must face the reality that their continued reliance on fossil fuels is costing lives, billions in economic losses, and causing irreversible damage to communities worldwide,” said Friederike Otto, WWA’s co-founder.

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