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Diplomats preparing for COP30 in the Brazilian city of Belém next month have been discussing an emerging issue that could feature for the first time at a UN climate summit: the global rush for energy transition minerals.

Metals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, nickel and graphite are vital for manufacturing clean energy transition technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles – creating both new opportunities and risks for resource-rich countries.

Soaring demand for minerals – which are also used in the construction, digital and military sectors – provides an opportunity to spur economic development if mining is responsible and producing countries can turn their resources into high-value products.

But increased mining activity has fuelled environmental destruction, deforestation and conflict with communities, from Indonesia – which is opening new coal plants to power its nickel industry – to Zambia and Chile.

    In preparatory talks over the past couple of months, developing countries with extensive mineral reserves, notably Latin American and African states, have warned that mining could become the Achilles heel of a just energy transition unless environmental and social safeguards are put in place to ensure the costs and benefits are shared fairly.

    Diplomats have discussed the impacts of mining in negotiations on the social and economic implications of climate action, known as “response measures”.

    They also raised the issue during talks to define the scope of a work stream to ensure that the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is fair to workers, protects nature and support economic development, called the Just Transition Work Programme.

    Civil society push for COP to tackle transition minerals

    Brazil’s COP30 presidency has made an agreement with “concrete outcomes” on a just transition framework a key priority of the summit in Belém.

    Separately, the government has spoken about the need for energy transition mineral production to respect human rights and promote sustainable development.

    “In its interventions across international forums, Brazil has expressed support for the inclusion of principles that promote transparency, address illicit activities and corruption, encourage value addition in developing countries, and uphold environmental protection and human rights in the context of critical minerals production,” a COP30 spokesperson told Climate Home News.

    The inclusion of energy transition minerals in COP30 decisions will require consensus among all countries but observers are cautiously optimistic.

    Colombia proposes expert group to advance talks on minerals agreement

    “The stars do seem to be aligning for COP30 to be the first to address the role of transition minerals governance in climate action but it’s still not a given,” said Antonio Hill, an advisor on the Natural Resource Governance Institute’s just transitions advocacy work.

    “If achieved, it would address a glaring gap in the current global climate and energy transition agenda,” he added.

    More than 200 civil society groups have signed an open letter urging countries to address energy transition minerals at COP30.

    They called on them to welcome principles and recommendations of a UN panel on establishing transparent, sustainable and equitable mineral supply chains and to strengthen mineral governance.

    A “timely and necessary” discussion

    In a submission ahead of talks on the implications of climate measures last month, a coalition of 134 developing countries – known as the G77 and China – called for a “dedicated dialogue” on energy transition minerals.

    It described it as “both timely and necessary” to enable countries to consider how growing mineral demand relates to their development priorities and climate plans.

    The current dynamic “presents a serious risk of entrenching unsustainable development trajectories, undermining efforts toward industrial diversification, and jeopardising the prospects of a truly just transition for developing countries”, it said.

    More than half of energy transition mineral reserves are estimated to be located on or near Indigenous land and a large majority of mines are located in biodiversity hotspots. Indigenous peoples are widely acknowledged to play a key role in preserving tropical forests that act as some of the world’s most important carbon sinks.

    Indonesia's nickel industry
    Road to the SCM nickel mine in southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, which holds one of the world’s largest reserves of nickel. Photo: Franco Bravo Dengo

    The issue was also raised during talks on defining a just energy transition framework.

    The Independent Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC), which includes Colombia, Chile and Peru, warned that deforestation and land use changes caused by mineral extraction could undermine climate action and affect people’s rights to a healthy environment.

    “A just transition approach could offer unique opportunities towards fairness and equity in the mining industry” and contribute to local development, the group said.

    Colombia, which is proposing that countries discuss options for a binding agreement on minerals at the UN Environment Assembly in December, went further and called for the designation of “no-go areas” for mining.

    No-go mining zones

    Colombia’s demands are echoed by Indigenous groups.

    Bryan Bixcul is from the Maya-Tz’utujil Indigenous group in Guatemala and serves as the global coordinator of the Securing Indigenous Peoples’ Rights in the Green Economy (SIRGE) coalition. He told Climate Home the Just Transition Work Programme will fail to be a tool for justice if it fails to directly address the harms caused by mining.

    Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use

    Key to SIRGE’s demand is for the text to make explicit references to the rights of Indigenous peoples, including those in voluntary isolation.

    Bixcul said the text should include an obligation to establish “no-go” or exclusion zones on and around the land of the world’s remaining uncontacted Indigenous groups, which cannot give their consent to mining projects close to their lands. This, he said, violates the principle of no contact.

    Protecting uncontacted Indigenous peoples

    Videos have emerged showing members of an uncontacted Indigenous group warning outsiders away and begging for food on a site where forest was being cleared for nickel mining on Halmahera island in Indonesia.

    NGO Survival International warned that the uncontacted Hongana Manyawa people, who live on the island, faced “a threat of genocide” because of nickel mining used to make batteries for electric vehicles.

    In September, Norway’s government pension fund divested from French miner Eramet, which operates a large mine on the island, citing “unacceptable risk” of human rights violations, including forced contact. Eramet denied the presence of uncontacted groups in or near its concession.

    “If countries don’t take a stance to protect the rights of Indigenous peoples in voluntary isolation, they will fail human rights, not just Indigenous people’s rights,” said Bixcul.

    Brazil, which has promised the largest Indigenous participation in COP history in Belém, has called on countries to protect the demarcation of Indigenous lands as a key policy tool to address the climate crisis.

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    UN chief says fossil fuel industry must cut methane for warming “relief”

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    UN chief António Guterres called on Tuesday for stronger action to cut emissions of planet-heating methane, taking aim at the fossil fuel industry’s practices and profits, and pointing to coal, oil and gas as the root of today’s climate and energy crises.

    In a major speech at London Climate Action Week, with the British capital under a heatwave warning, the UN Secretary-General said countries had not done enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with what is needed to keep warming below the globally agreed goal of 1.5C. 

    “The task before us is to strictly limit the overshoot, shorten its duration, and bring temperatures down below 1.5 degrees Celsius as fast as possible,” Guterres said. One way of doing that, he added, is by cutting methane emissions first.

    He noted that methane – a potent greenhouse gas that traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide – is responsible for around one-third of global warming but breaks down in the atmosphere within a decade or two.

    “That means that aggressive cuts could produce visible temperature relief within a generation,” the UN chief emphasised, launching a global call to action on methane covering fossil fuel production, agriculture and organic waste disposal.

      Of the three main sources of methane, he singled out the fossil fuel industry, where he said “the most immediate gains can be made”.

      He cited the International Energy Agency (IEA) finding that around 70% of oil and gas methane emissions can be eliminated using existing technology, mostly at low or no net cost. This is because the gas leaking from coal mines and oil and gas production facilities can be captured and then used or sold.

      Despite this, in 2025 alone, Guterres said some 167 billion cubic metres of gas were flared – as much as Africa consumes in a year.

      “I am urging the fossil fuel industry to step up and do what is long overdue,” added the UN chief, whose term ends this year.

      Guterres said voluntary action “is no longer enough” and there were similar global precedents for getting rid of harmful substances, including leaded petrol and ozone-depleting chemicals. “Methane pollution must be next,” he emphasised.

      Methane emissions stuck at highs

      The latest Global Methane Tracker report from the IEA shows that methane emissions from fossil fuels remained at very high levels in 2025, with no sign of a decline globally despite progress in some countries. In 2025, energy generated 41% of global methane emissions, followed by agriculture (40%) and waste (17%).

      On Tuesday, a World Bank tracker showed that global gas flaring rose for the third year in a row in 2025, wasting an estimated $54 billion worth of gas by burning it off.

      Demetrios Papathanasiou, the World Bank Group’s global director for energy, said that at a time when many countries are struggling to expand their access to affordable and reliable energy, “the economic development costs of continued flaring are simply too high”. “The gas currently flared could be captured to power industries and businesses, create jobs and strengthen energy security,” he said in a statement.

      As well as easing climate change, the IEA says capturing waste methane could help improve gas market security after Iran’s near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed close to 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply from the market. 

      The prime minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, last year called on leaders at the UN General Assembly to draw up a “legally binding global agreement” to reduce methane emissions, an idea that is also supported by France.

      Mottley’s “legally binding” methane pact faces barriers, but smaller steps possible

      However, Guterres stopped short of supporting such a solution on Tuesday, throwing his weight instead behind a proposal for governments to set a new global standard for net near-zero methane emissions across the value chain in the oil and gas sector.

      This initiative, outlined in a report on the new call to action, would establish a common, internationally recognised methane intensity benchmark, for use by both producers and consumers. Compliance with the standard would then become a condition for financing, procurement and long‑term market access.

      Voluntary action ‘not enough’

      In recent years, countries and companies willing to act on the methane problem have teamed up on the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030 from 2020 levels, and the UAE-led Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, signed by over 50 oil and gas companies. But their success has been limited in real terms.

      Speaking at a separate event on Monday, Jonathan Banks, vice president of methane pollution prevention at the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), said the global pledge had been successful in creating “high-level political buy-in”, raising more money to detect methane emissions and helping countries plug their sources.

      But it “is not there to be this all-encompassing binding treaty that drives emissions down”, he added.

      At last year’s COP30, 11 countries representing around 10% of global oil production and 18% of gas exports signed a pledge to “drastically reduce” methane emissions in the fossil fuel sector, including by eliminating routine gas flaring and venting.

      Comment: Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace

      The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) also runs a system that detects methane leaks around the world. It has issued more than 5,000 alerts across 33 countries, but received responses in only 12% of cases.

      Meghan Demeter, a programme manager at the UNEP service, said on Monday that countries face several barriers to responding to the alerts, including limited capacity to interpret the data and act on it, as well as funding shortages, particularly among national oil companies.

      A senior UN official told journalists that existing initiatives on methane had raised awareness of the issue but had failed to deliver the emissions cuts needed. “’It’s absolutely critical that governments step in and strongly regulate the oil and gas sector,” he added.

      Norway leads the way

      As an example of how this could work, the call to action report singled out Norway, which banned routine flaring in 1971, imposed a tax on emissions from petroleum production and transport in 1991, and increased its tax on flaring and methane emissions in 2017. It now has one of the lowest methane emissions intensities of upstream oil and gas production in the world. 

      The report said that if all countries matched Norway’s standards, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations could fall by roughly 90%.

      Recent COP hosts Brazil and Azerbaijan linked to “super-emitting” methane plumes

      It added that China, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar reduced or maintained their methane emissions from oil and gas production between 2023 and 2024, even as output increased, indicating a decline in the emissions intensity of their operations.

      On Monday, the Fossil Fuel Regulatory Programme (FFRP), a UNEP-backed initiative that works with governments to strengthen regulatory frameworks for cutting methane emissions from their energy sectors, added Egypt, Brazil, and Bosnia and Herzegovina to its existing partners, Ghana, Kazakhstan and Iraq.

      Windfall tax on fossil fuel profits

      Guterres also made a strong push for states to hit the very deep pockets of fossil fuel companies with windfall taxes, as countries like the UK, Italy or Spain have done in recent years.

      He said fossil energy giants had reaped ”extraordinary profits”, with the eight biggest making an extra $6.5 billion in the first quarter of this year alone, which included only one month of the Middle East crisis which has pushed up oil prices.

      “These are windfall gains born of pain – of instability, hardship and dependence. I urge governments to tax them,” said the UN chief. 

      He added that the proceeds should be used “where they belong: helping vulnerable families and communities, and accelerating the shift to clean, affordable energy”.

      The post UN chief says fossil fuel industry must cut methane for warming “relief” appeared first on Climate Home News.

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      Climate Change

      China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past

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      Aiqun Yu, Christine Shearer and Joe Hittinger work at Global Energy Monitor, a US-based organisation that seeks to provide the worldwide energy transition with transparent data and analysis.

      With global oil and gas prices soaring at the start of the Iran war, China quietly broke ground on three major coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemical projects worth roughly $10 billion in two regions with abundant coal resources.

      But as a Chinese saying goes, “three feet of ice does not form in a single day”. China’s push to use coal as a substitute for imported oil and gas has been gathering momentum since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, prompting a recalibration of energy security priorities in Beijing and beyond.

      The policy raises new concerns, threatening China’s climate goals and growing reputation as a global clean energy leader by creating renewed demand for coal.

      A new expansion wave

      Over the past three years, China has entered a new cycle of investment in so-called “modern coal chemicals”, differentiated from conventional coal chemicals. Four pathways – coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-olefins, and coal-to-ethylene glycol – account for the bulk of new modern coal-chemical capacity under development.

        According to Global Energy Monitor data, proposed and under-construction coal-to-gas capacity is approaching three times current operating capacity. Together, 34 projects under active consideration represent more than 1 trillion yuan ($150 billion) in planned investment and could add roughly 300 million tonnes of annual coal demand if completed, equivalent to South Africa’s entire coal mining capacity.

        Most projects are in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Ningxia, regions with plentiful coal resources and relatively low mining costs. Xinjiang has emerged as the epicentre of the new boom, accounting for more than half of all proposed modern coal chemical projects.

        Why the world abandoned coal chemicals

        Coal chemicals are often presented as an emerging industry, but the technologies themselves are more than a century old.

        Earlier “conventional” coal chemistry was a byproduct of coking, a process run primarily for iron and steel making. “Modern” coal chemistry instead uses gasification to convert coal into synthesis gas, a versatile building block for fuels, plastics, fertilisers and other chemicals that would traditionally be made from oil or gas.

        These modern processes were developed in the early 20th century and expanded during periods of wartime fuel shortages. For example, Germany relied heavily on synthetic fuels during the Second World War while South Africa developed similar technologies in the apartheid era to reduce vulnerability to international sanctions.

        A livestreamer promotes coal during a livestreaming session for Huaze Coal Industry on the Douyin app, in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2023. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration

        A livestreamer promotes coal during a livestreaming session for Huaze Coal Industry on the Douyin app, in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2023. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration

        Once cheap oil and gas became widely available, however, most countries moved away from coal chemicals, which required large amounts of energy, water and capital investment, and generally produced more pollution and carbon emissions than the conventional alternatives.

        Today, only a handful of commercial coal gasification facilities operate outside China.

        China has already tested this theory once

        The current expansion is not China’s first attempt to build a major coal chemical industry.

        A previous boom emerged during the 2010s, driven by many of the same arguments: high oil prices, concerns over energy security and expectations that technological improvements would unlock a new era of coal-based industrial growth.

        Brazil jostles for rare earths share as US-China rivalry heats up

        The outcome was far from successful. Dozens of projects were proposed, but many were delayed, suspended or scrapped before completion, and there were difficulties among those that did get off the ground.

        Three of China’s four operating coal-to-gas projects reportedly spent much of the past decade operating at a loss, and several large coal chemical facilities generated only marginal returns despite government support.

        Policy support is driving the revival

        Backers say technological improvements have made the industry more competitive than it was a decade ago.

        Yet coal chemical projects remain highly dependent on oil and gas prices. When international prices rise, coal-derived products can appear competitive. When prices fall, the economics often deteriorate rapidly.

        More than changes in technology, government policy has played a pivotal role in the sector’s revival.

        Following power shortages in 2021 and the energy market disruptions that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy security became a national priority. Coal production expanded, particularly in western China, boosted by government support.

        China’s solar exports reach “gigantic” record in March as energy crisis bites

        A key policy change in 2022 exempted coal used as industrial feedstock from certain energy consumption controls, easing regulatory pressure on coal chemical projects.

        The impact of such measures highlights the degree to which coal chemicals depend on expansive and favourable policy treatment to remain viable.

        At the same time, the current expansion is creating new demand for an industry confronting structural decline as China races to renewables in electricity generation.

        The cost to China’s climate leadership

        Converting coal into fuels and petrochemical products also releases substantially more carbon dioxide than conventional oil- and gas-based alternatives, which themselves are a major source of emissions.

        Proponents argue that coupling production with green hydrogen and carbon capture could resolve the emissions problem, but the arithmetic doesn’t support this.

        Sinopec’s flagship Dalu coal-to-olefins plant, paired with a 10,000 tonne-per-year green hydrogen demonstration, displaces less than 2% of the plant’s annual coal use. Replicating this across the proposed buildout would consume enormous quantities of clean energy just to partially decarbonise an inherently dirty process.

        China could instead leverage that same industrial capacity and policy support to lead the development of cleaner chemical pathways, such as green ammonia for fertiliser, bio-based and CO2-derived feedstocks for plastics, and e-fuels or biofuels where liquid fuels are still needed.

        Rather than locking in another generation of coal-dependent infrastructure, China should learn from the lessons of the past and seek a cleaner and more viable industrial future.

        The post China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past appeared first on Climate Home News.

        China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past

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        Climate Change

        Project Cosmos

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        Welcome to the Project Cosmos homepage.

        The project was launched by Carbon Brief in June 2026 following an 18-month research and development effort.

        The aim: to build the world’s largest database of climate change research.

        Containing more than 1.8 million unique publications linked by 40 million citation relationships, the Cosmos database represents the most complete and expansive mapping of human knowledge on climate change ever assembled.

        The articles and visuals below will guide you through how the Cosmos database was built, as well as all the subsequent analysis, including the Cosmos 500 rankings of most cited authors, publications and institutions.

        The post Project Cosmos appeared first on Carbon Brief.

        https://www.carbonbrief.org/project-cosmos/

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