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Only around a third of the latest country climate pledges submitted to the UN express support for the “transition away from fossil fuels”, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

Several countries even have used their 2035 climate plans to commit to increasing the production or use of fossil fuels, predominately gas, the analysis finds.

The first global stocktake of progress to tackle climate change, agreed at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023, calls on all countries to contribute to “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.

Countries were meant to explain how they are implementing the outcomes of the global stocktake, including their contribution to transitioning away from fossil fuels, in their latest climate plans.

However, just 23 of the 63 plans submitted to the UN so far express support for “transitioning away from fossil fuels”, or the “phase out” or “phase down” of their use.

In addition, six countries, including Russia, Nigeria and Morocco, use their climate plans to commit to boosting gas production.

Some two-thirds of countries have not yet announced or submitted their pledges, missing not only the UN deadline of 10 February, but also an extension to September.

How to address the lack of sufficient action from countries with their latest plans is billed to be one of the major issues up for debate at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil next month.

Taking stock

In 2015, countries forged the Paris Agreement, the landmark deal to keep temperature rise “well-below” 2C, with “aspirations” to limit global warming to 1.5C of warming by the end of this century.

At the time, countries’ initial pledges were not enough to put the world on track to meet the temperature targets, so they built a “ratchet mechanism” into the Paris Agreement, requiring them to keep increasing their ambition in the following years.

As part of this, countries agreed to submit new, more ambitious plans every five years detailing what they are doing to take action on climate change and adapt to its impacts. These are called “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).

The Paris Agreement also stated that, following on from these plans, “global stocktakes” should be conducted to assess collective progress in meeting the temperature goal.

The first global stocktake concluded at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023, with countries agreeing to a new document setting out how they will respond to a lack of sufficient action to meet the Paris goals.

The two-week talks saw fierce debate about how fossil fuels – the main driver of human-caused climate change – should be referred to in this text.

Activists demonstrating at the 2023 COP28 climate summit in Dubai Credit: Associated Press.

In the end, the stocktake “calls on” all countries to “contribute to” a list of global goals, including “transitioning away from fossil fuels…accelerating action in this critical decade” towards net-zero by 2050.

It was the first time that countries formally acknowledged the need to transition away from fossil fuels in almost 30 years of international climate negotiations.

However, many countries were disappointed that the text did not contain a firmer commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, or even just those with “unabated” emissions.

After Dubai, countries were expected to come up with new NDCs for 2035 that explained how they responded to the priorities set out in the stocktake.

The deadline for submitting the “3.0” NDCs was 10 February 2025, which 95% of countries missed.

On 24 September, the UN convened a climate summit in New York at the sidelines of the UN general assembly in the hope of encouraging more countries to come forward with new NDCs.

China stole the show at the event, announcing a pledge – although not yet formally submitted to the UN – to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035. Several other countries announced new plans, including Russia, Turkey and Bangladesh.

Following the summit, around one-third of countries have announced or submitted their 2035 NDCs.

Fossil-fuel focus

For the analysis, Carbon Brief reviewed each of the NDCs submitted to the UN to determine whether they express support for “transitioning away” from fossil fuels or for phasing them out or “down”.

Countries were considered to have expressed support if they explicitly mentioned the terms “transition” or “phase out/down” in relation to “fossil fuels” when speaking about their own actions to address climate change.

Some countries spoke in general terms about “reducing” or “replacing” fossil fuels, but did not explicitly reference the need to transition away from or phase them down or out. Others spoke about transitioning to a clean or renewable-based economy, but did not explicitly mention fossil fuels.

For the purposes of this analysis, all of these countries were considered to have not expressed support for the need to transition away from fossil fuels.

In addition, some countries mentioned in their NDCs that the global stocktake calls for a transition away from fossil fuels, but did not say that transitioning away from fossil fuels would be part of their own actions to address climate change.

These countries were also considered to have not expressed support for the need to transition away from fossil fuels.

Overall, the results show that only one-third of countries express support for the need to transition away from fossil fuels in their NDCs.

Countries used varying language when speaking about the need to transition away from fossil fuels.

Some directly acknowledged that transitioning away from fossil fuels was a key conclusion of the global stocktake and committed to doing this within their own borders.

This includes the UK, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Singapore, Lebanon and Niue. For example, the UK’s NDC states:

“At home and in line with the outcomes of the GST [global stocktake], the UK is committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels to achieve net-zero by 2050.”

Other countries chose to commit to “phasing out” fossil fuels instead of “transitioning away”.

This includes Iceland and Vanuatu. Similarly, Colombia’s NDC says:

“NDC 3.0 reaffirms that the phasing out of fossil fuels is not only a climate imperative, but also an opportunity to strengthen energy sovereignty [and] democratise the benefits of the transition.”

(Colombia and Vanuatu were two of the countries that were disappointed not to see a commitment to phase out fossil fuels included within the global stocktake text.)

Barbados, an island nation known for its strong commitment to climate action, committed in its NDC to “achieve a fossil fuel-free economy” by 2040. In addition, Chile pledged to contribute to the “elimination of fossil fuels”.

In the analysis, these pledges were considered to be support for transitioning away from fossil fuels, despite not using the terms “transition” or “phase out”.

The table below shows the language used by each of the 21 countries that expressed support for transitioning away from fossil fuels, according to the analysis.

Country Expression of support for ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels’ in NDC
United Kingdom “At home and in line with the outcomes of the GST, the UK is committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels to achieve net-zero by 2050.”
Brazil “Brazil will respond to the call to contribute to global efforts under paragraph 28 of
decision 1/CMA.5, through the policies and national efforts below, including those under the
National Climate Plan. In addition, Brazil would welcome the launching of international work for
the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just,
orderly and equitable manner, with developed countries taking the lead, on the basis of the best
available science, reflecting equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities
and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances and in the context of
sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, as per paragraph 6 of decision 1/
CMA.5.”
Canada “Canada also remains committed to implementing the mitigation outcomes of the Global Stocktake
(GST), agreed at COP28…This includes…transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.”
Lebanon “Guided by the UAE Consensus reached at COP28, which calls on all Parties to transition away from fossil fuels and strengthen support for adaptation, this NDC reflects Lebanon’s commitment to scaling ambition while addressing national vulnerabilities.”
Iceland “Iceland’s NDC takes note of the outcome of the global stocktake, according to Decision 1/CMA.5. Specifically, Iceland’s NDC seeks to represent the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5°C pathways by contributing to the phase-out of fossil fuels across sectors and the strategic, fair and ambitious implementation of carbon capture, utilisation and storage, according to para. 28.”
Barbados “In 2020, the Government of Barbados set the aspirational goal to achieve a fossil fuel-free economy and to reduce GHG emissions across all sectors to as close to zero as possible by 2030. In light of the significant challenges faced by the country, the aspirational goal is currently expected to be reached around 2040.”
Chile “In 2023, within the framework of the 28th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP) in Dubai, the report on the First Global Stocktake, designed within the framework of the Paris Agreement to assess the global response to the climate crisis, was presented…Among its main conclusions, the agreement to move towards the elimination of fossil fuels in energy systems…stands out. All these conclusions are addressed in this NDC, demonstrating Chile’s commitment to climate ambition.”
Vanuatu “Moving beyond our current net-zero status, this NDC recommits Vanuatu to rapidly phasing out fossil fuels, deeply decarbonising and transitioning completely to a circular economy.”
Pakistan “Natural gas and furnace oil are set to decline, with net reductions of 2,147 MW and 430 MW respectively, as per IGCEP 2025-2035, signaling a gradual phase down of fossil fuels in Pakistan’s capacity mix.”
Colombia “NDC 3.0 reaffirms that the phasing out of fossil fuels is not only a climate imperative, but also an opportunity to strengthen energy sovereignty, democratize the benefits of the transition, and consolidate Colombia as a Power of Life.”
Niue Niue understands the need to transition from fossil fuel-based electricity generation to renewable energy to reduce the GHG emissions footprint and ensure energy security.”
Singapore “Singapore is contributing to the first global stocktake’s call to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. We are also supporting efforts to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”
Australia “The global stocktake recognised the global direction of travel in its consensus call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems and to phase-down unabated coal-fired power. In Australia, our transition is underway.”
United Arab Emirates “The GST Outcome at COP28, together with the broader UAE Consensus and the work under the Troika, has provided a strong impetus for the UAE NDC 3.0. The outcome of the first GST notably emphasizes the need to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, urging parties to adopt ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets.”
Japan “The items listed in decision 1/CMA.5 have been incorporated to the greatest extent possible into
the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, which is a comprehensive implementation plan for achieving Japan’s NDC.”
Bolivia “The persistent dependence on fossil fuels, both for electricity generation and transportation, not only contributes to national greenhouse gas emissions, but also exposes the country to volatility in international oil and gas prices, highlighting the urgency of a fair, sovereign, and resilient energy transition toward renewable sources.”
Nicaragua “The transition to an energy matrix less dependent on fossil fuels is a fundamental priority of
the government.”
Marshall Islands “This NDC also demonstrates our drive, our achievements, and the challenges we face.
In particular, we detail our domestic actions to contribute to the collective commitments
made following the global stocktake, including the tripling of renewable energy, doubling of
energy efficiency and removal of fossil fuel subsidies, all in pursuit of accelerating the
transition away from fossil fuels this decade.”
Cambodia “This transition will be implemented in two key phases: 70% renewable energy by 2030, followed by a further increase to 72% by 2035, ensuring a gradual yet decisive shift away from fossil fuel dependency in the power sector.”
Bangladesh “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner [is] central to Bangladesh’s contribution to the global response to climate change. The NDC 3.0 commitments are designed not only to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions but also to accelerate the just energy transition, promote zero- and low-emission technologies, and enhance climate resilience.”
Tuvalu “We are steadfast in our transition to 100% renewable energy.”
Sri Lanka “With abundant solar, wind, and hydropower resources, Sri Lanka has a clear opportunity and expressed ambitious commitments to move
towards total electricity generation based on renewable sources, to transition away from fossil fuels toward cleaner, decentralised energy systems.”
Nepal Nepal’s NDC is “informed” by Decision 1/CMA.5 Outcome of the first GST, “such as 1.5C decarbonisation pathway…just transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.”

Source: Carbon Brief analysis of UN NDC registry

Separately, the thinktank E3G has examined how countries speak about their policies for reducing fossil fuels in their NDCs.

It found that more than two-thirds of countries include “explicit references to displacing fossil fuels in their electricity mix”.

However, E3G also noted that “specific language on winding down the production of coal, oil, and fossil gas is lacking in almost all NDCs”.

‘Transitional fuel’

Carbon Brief also examined each of the submitted NDCs to see how countries speak about new fossil-fuel production and use within their borders.

Six of the 64 nations – around 10% – used their NDCs to pledge to increase fossil-fuel production or use, predominately gas, claiming this could contribute to their efforts to lower emissions.

In its NDC, the world’s fourth biggest emitter, Russia, says it “emphasises the importance of implementing a just transition to low-emission development models using all available solutions”, including “gas as a transition fuel and technologies for reducing emissions in coal-fired power generation”.

During negotiations on the stocktake text in 2023, Russia had pushed successfully to include a controversial paragraph that says “transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security”, Climate Home News reported.

The publication noted that, after this text was agreed, Antigua and Barbuda negotiator Diann Black-Layne called it a “dangerous loophole”, adding that gas is also a fossil fuel that “we need to transition away from”.

Several African nations, including Nigeria, Morocco, Mauritius and Zimbabwe, also pledged to boost the production or use of gas as part of their “climate” actions.

Nigeria, Africa’s second biggest emitter, says that the country “relies heavily on the oil and gas industry” and that the sector will be “called upon to further grow while adopting sustainability measures”. It continues:

“Natural gas use will be boosted, serving as a key transition fuel in Nigeria’s move towards increased adoption of renewable energy for meeting its net-zero emissions target.”

The world’s energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, recently reemphasised that there would be no need for any new fossil-fuel production, if the world cuts emissions in line with limiting global warming to 1.5C.

It comes after the world’s top court this year concluded that new fossil-fuel production, consumption, the granting of exploration licences or the provision of subsidies “may constitute an internationally wrongful act”, leaving the states involved vulnerable to legal action.

COP30 calls

After nearly all nations missed the deadline for submitting NDCs in February, UN climate chief Simon Stiell asked laggard countries to do so by the end of September.

This will allow their plans to be included in a new report synthesising the level of progress contained within the latest NDCs, which is due to be published on 24 October. (Less than a third of nations met Stiell’s request.)

The report will come just before COP30, which will take place from 10-21 November in the rainforest Brazilian city of Belém.

Whether and how to respond to the insufficient progress contained within these NDCs, including whether to call for increased ambition in line with the outcomes of the first global stocktake, are among the key issues up for debate at the summit.

The Brazilian presidency is pushing for a formal COP decision on any “disappoint[ment]” over NDCs falling short, collectively, of what is needed to avoid dangerous global warming.

However, other countries would need to agree to this proposal at the summit.

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EU, UK lead push for electrification as “powerful weapon” against fossil fuels

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Dozens of governments led by the EU and the UK have pledged to throw their political weight behind a rapid electrification of the world’s economy, billed as a “powerful weapon” for cutting reliance on planet-heating fossil fuels.

At a high-level summit in London’s Mansion House on Tuesday, energy ministers and business leaders were joined by UN secretary-general António Guterres in calling for faster action to curb demand for oil, coal and gas by powering homes, industry and transport with clean electricity.

Electrification – which spans measures such as switching from petrol cars to electric vehicles – has emerged as a key priority in climate and energy policy circles this year.

COP31 co-hosts Türkiye and Australia have made a global target for electricity to meet 35% of final energy demand by 2035, up from around 20% today, the main plank of this year’s action agenda for the UN summit. Reaching that level is necessary to keep the 1.5C warming limit within reach, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

Turkish COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum said earlier this month that the host nation would work to forge “a strong global coalition that is ready and determined to act” and promised to facilitate access to technical assistance.

    Rallying support for electrification

    Five months before countries are due to sign on to the pledge, efforts to rally support gathered momentum at London Climate Action Week, as a record-breaking heatwave baking the capital underscored the urgency of weaning the world off fossil fuels.

    Guterres said the world faces an “historic opportunity” to turn the page on its dependence on fossil fuels and fully embrace clean electrification powered by renewables.

    “The age of clean electrification is here,” he added. “The question is whether we can build the grids and storage, mobilize the investment, and deliver the infrastructure at the speed and scale required”.

    Without investment and government policies supporting upgrades in infrastructure, ageing power grids are often unable to handle the growing influx of renewable energy, creating bottlenecks and slowing the energy transition, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    Meanwhile, the high upfront costs of buying electric vehicles, heat pumps and industrial equipment remains a challenge to switch households and businesses away from using fossil fuels across the world, according IEA analysts, despite these technologies being cheaper over their whole lifecycle.

    Global coordination platform

    In a bid to overcome these hurdles, the European Commission and the UK government on Tuesday launched a new platform to coordinate global progress on electrification.

    EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said the goal was to build coalitions, draw up policy recommendations, share best practice and secure new funding to speed up the electrification of homes, industry and transport.

    Brazil’s COP30 presidency, the joint Australia-Türkiye COP31 presidency, Ethiopia’s incoming COP32 presidency, Canada, the Philippines and South Korea joined the initiative at launch.

    Jorgensen urged governments worldwide to “choose transformation over turbulence” and switch to clean electricity to make economies and societies more resilient and shield them from future shocks driven by volatile fossil fuels.

    COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification

    For many countries, especially those heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels, the oil and gas crisis triggered by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and the ensuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven home the urgency of the clean energy transition.

    The UK’s energy secretary Ed Miliband said on Tuesday that, unlike previous fossil fuel shocks, clean electrification now offers the world a clear alternative.

    “An alternative that cannot be disrupted by foreign wars, that isn’t subject to global shocks because it is locked in stable prices at home, and that can create good jobs and drive growth,” he added, “an alternative that can deliver national security, energy security and indeed climate security.”

    At the recent conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, a group of 60 governments led by the Netherlands and Colombia said electrification is one of the areas where they can align work with the UN climate talks.

    Financial reforms needed

    Achieving the electrification target – dubbed the “35 by 35” goal – will require significant financial resources. Investments in power grids alone need to double from their current rate to around $1 trillion each year in the next decade, according to IRENA.

    But Guterres said that developing countries are still “starved from investment” in their clean energy sector. He urged deeper reforms of the global financial architecture by reducing lending risk, lowering the cost of capital and attracting more private investment.

    Surangel Whipps Jr., president of the low-lying Pacific island state of Palau, said faster progress in electrification is a “powerful weapon in our arsenal”. But he warned that the energy transition would stall without “fit for purpose investment that is fast, predictable and accessible”.

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    Mombasa: Key outcomes from the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya

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    A major ocean conference has ended in Mombasa, Kenya, with just a handful of countries committing to high-level political declarations on banning deep-sea mining, protecting climate-resilient coral reefs and combatting illegal fishing.

    The Our Ocean Conference (OOC) brought together more than 5,000 delegates to discuss marine issues and make voluntary commitments to advance ocean sustainability.

    It was the first time in the conference’s 11 editions that it had been held on African soil.

    African countries played an “important leadership role” at the talks, observers told Carbon Brief, helping to drive ambition on fisheries transparency, a precautionary pause on deep-sea mining and developing proposals for marine protected areas on the high seas.

    Across the three-day conference, attendees also made 320 separate commitments, including new funding for scientific research, improving waste-management programmes to reduce marine pollution and mapping Indigenous groups’ customary waters.

    Some of these commitments were accompanied by announcements of new funding, with a total of $6.4bn “mobilised” across all pledges.

    Several non-governmental organisations also released new reports during the conference, on topics ranging from the implementation of marine protected areas to “climate-resilient” coral reefs.

    Observers told Carbon Brief that the commitments and discussions at the conference were “positive steps”, but added that these pledges must now be backed up by action.

    During the opening ceremony, former US secretary of state John Kerry urged delegates to move “from commitments to implementation”.

    Here, Carbon Brief outlines the key takeaways from the OOC across five major climate-related topics.

    Background

    The OOC was first held in Washington DC in 2014, where it was championed by Kerry.

    The conference aims to “identify action-based solutions and make tangible commitments” towards addressing key issues facing the ocean, such as climate change and overfishing. It does so through voluntary commitments made by governments, non-governmental organisations, civil society groups and others.

    These commitments align with the six “pillars” of the conference:

    • The ocean-climate nexus
    • Marine pollution
    • Marine protected areas
    • Maritime security
    • Sustainable blue economy
    • Sustainable fisheries

    Since then, the conference has been held annually (with the exceptions of 2020 and 2021 during the Covid pandemic), with the host city changing every year.

    Each edition of the conference is very different, attendees told Carbon Brief, and the host country plays a large role in setting the conference’s priorities.

    For example, at the 2024 conference, held in Athens, Greece, shipping and sustainable tourism were discussed at length alongside the six existing pillars.

    At this year’s summit, extra attention was paid to the roles of local communities in achieving a “healthy” ocean.

    Since 2025, the conference has had its own dedicated secretariat, hosted at the research organisation, the World Resources Institute (WRI). (Prior to that, the US Department of State acted as the de-facto secretariat.) 

    Marine protected area, Torre del Cerrano, Pineto, Italy.
    Marine protected area, Torre del Cerrano, Pineto, Italy. Credit: Fabrizio Troiani / Alamy Stock Photo

    Conference participants told Carbon Brief that the OOC has been “highly successful” in achieving its aims over the past decade. 

    An analysis of the first 10 years of the conference, published by WRI in 2025, found that of a total 2,618 commitments made at the OOC, around 1,130 had been completed and a further 1,005 were in progress.

    In Mombasa this year, 104 countries and organisations made a total of 320 voluntary commitments. More than one-quarter of these commitments were made in the “sustainable blue economy” action area.

    According to the preliminary report released by the secretariat at the conclusion of the OOC, the commitments made at the conference represent $6.4bn in “mobilised” finance. However, it is unclear from the report how much of this figure is new committed funding.

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    Marine protected areas

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) are one of the six key action areas of the Our Ocean Conference.

    A June 2026 independent assessment of the MPA-related commitments at previous editions of the OOC found that the conference has “made an outsized contribution to global marine conservation efforts”.

    According to the analysis, more than one-third of the Earth’s MPAs stemmed from announcements made at the OOC – a total area of more than 10m square kilometres (km2).

    This progress is the result of nearly two-thirds of MPA-related OOC commitments already fully implemented, the assessment says, while most of the remaining commitments “show evidence of progress”.

    If all pledged MPAs were to be implemented, it would represent protection for around 14.4m km2 or 4% of the ocean.

    The chart below shows the number of pledged actions related to MPAs and other area-based conservation methods that were pledged at the OOC between 2014 and 2025, coloured by the progress made on each commitment.

    Map of marine protected areas around the world
    Degree of completion of MPA commitments made at the OOC between 2014 and 2025. Blue indicates evidence of completion, while yellow shows some evidence of progress and red shows no evidence of progress. Source: Sullivan-Stack et al. (2026)

    Several groups announced new MPAs – or the completion of previously announced MPA designations – at the OOC.

    These included the establishment this year of two new MPAs in the Juan Fernández region of Chile, protecting a total of around 337,000km2 of ocean, and the approval of the Azores Marine Park, which will span 287,000km2 – making it the largest network of protected areas in the north Atlantic Ocean.

    However, despite the progress made in designating MPAs, further work is needed to ensure that these areas are truly protected, experts told Carbon Brief in Mombasa.

    A report released by the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) at the summit detailed the “implementation gap” facing MPAs. It noted that “at least half of existing MPAs remain unimplemented or operationally ineffective”, while just 3.5% of the global ocean is “fully and highly” protected.

    Closing this gap will require “inclusive, sustained and context-sensitive design, management and funding approaches”, continued the report.

    Dr Ana Spalding, the director of STRI’s Adrienne Arsht community-based resilience solutions initiative, told Carbon Brief that, while MPAs are typically evaluated based on their biodiversity outcomes, the communities that rely on ocean ecosystems are also very important to consider. Focusing on just one aspect or the other will result in an MPA that is not effective, she added:

    “There’s going to be a sweet spot between the two.”

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    High Seas Treaty

    The Agreement on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction – also known as the BBNJ Agreement or the High Seas Treaty – entered into force on 17 January 2026.

    This followed the treaty, achieving the necessary 60 state ratifications on 19 September 2025. The week before the OOC, the east African nation of Comoros became the 90th party to ratify the agreement.

    The first Conference of the Parties for the High Seas Treaty will be held in January 2027 in New York City. At that meeting, parties will be tasked with creating the rules of procedure, establishing the subsidiary bodies and carrying out other foundational work.

    Because so many key decisions will be made at this COP1, it is “imperative” to have as many ratifications as possible before the conference begins, said Rebecca Hubbard, director of the High Seas Alliance, a coalition of non-governmental organisations that advocates for protection of the high seas. She added:

    “We hope that well over 100 countries will be party to the agreement by COP1, so that they can be at the decision-making table.”

    Container ship in the Indian Ocean. Image ID:
    Container ship in the Indian Ocean. Credit: imageBROKER.com / Alamy Stock Photo

    One of the key provisions of the High Seas Treaty is that it creates a mechanism for countries to establish MPAs in international waters. This will be key to achieving the “30 by 30” target of protecting 30% of the world’s land and oceans by 2030, Hubbard told Carbon Brief.

    However, establishing a high-seas MPA under the agreement requires a thorough process, including a review by a scientific and technical subsidiary body, a consultation with parties and a vote by the COP. Thus, in order to achieve the “30 by 30” target, parties will need to act swiftly to begin the process of establishing high-seas MPAs, according to Hubbard. She said:

    “It will be very, very tight. It’s definitely possible, but it requires really strong government leadership and prioritisation.”

    She added that it is “essential” that governments begin forming proposals for high-seas MPAs before the COP meets in January, noting that some countries are already doing so.

    At a side event on 16 June, representatives from South Africa and the EU detailed plans to propose a high-seas MPA that would link two existing protected areas in the sub-Antarctic – one South African and one French. Hubbard told Carbon Brief:

    “That’s a really great example of what we can do with the High Seas Treaty – having developed and developing countries working together, sharing knowledge [and] developing scientific approaches together. I think that’s the hopeful future, collaboration [and] cooperation, that the High Seas Treaty really provides.”

    Also at the summit, Senegal, Mauritania, the Gambia and Guinea-Bissau committed to creating “at least two” transboundary west African MPAs.

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    Deep-sea mining

    Although deep-sea mining was not a major focus of the Mombasa talks, it did feature at several side events.

    At a reception held by the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition (DSCC), Prof Rashid Sumaila of the University of British Columbia said the “wrong question is being asked” about deep-sea mining. He continued:

    “It’s not whether they have the minerals, it’s whether extracting them gives a net-positive impact.”

    Sumaila added that evaluating the risk of deep-sea mining will require a cost-benefit analysis that is as “broad and inclusive as possible”.

    At the same reception, the foreign-affairs minister of Malawi, Dr George Chaponda, announced the country’s support of a “precautionary pause” on seabed mining in international waters. This would prohibit mineral exploration in such areas until there is robust scientific evidence showing limited environmental harm.

    In doing so, Malawi became the first African country to support such a pause – and the 41st country overall to support a precautionary pause or moratorium on the activity.

    Chaponda told the assembled guests that Malawi’s existence as a landlocked country did not preclude its involvement in the deep-sea debates, urging:

    “To my fellow landlocked states: geography does not diminish our stake in the ocean.”

    Later in the week, Kenya and Madagascar also announced their support for such a pause.

    In a statement, David Willima, the Africa lead at DSCC, said:

    “The leadership shown by Malawi, Kenya and Madagascar sends a vital signal that African nations are stepping forward to defend the deep ocean and are unwilling to accept the risks of deep-sea mining.”

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    Coral reefs

    At the third UN Ocean Conference (UNOC), held in Nice, France, in June 2025, 11 countries and several partner organisations launched the high-level commitment to protect “climate-resilient” coral reefs.

    These are reefs that, according to scientists, have the “best chance of long-term survival in the face of climate change”.

    (UNOC occurs every three years and is specifically focused on achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goal on sustainable ocean use. Unlike the OOC, UNOC results in a negotiated political declaration.)

    A further four countries signed the commitment in Mombasa: Comoros, the Dominican Republic, Kenya and the UK. According to a representative at the launch event, the goal is to reach 31 signatories – representing 80% of the world’s coral cover – by COP31 in Turkey in November this year.

    Signatory governments pledged their commitment to:

    • Identifying climate-resilient reefs and prioritising their protection.
    • Integrating coral-reef protection into national strategies and plans.
    • Enacting policies to reduce the local pressures facing coral reefs, such as overfishing, pollution and overdevelopment.
    • Implementing national reef monitoring programmes and action plans.
    • Ensuring equity and working with local communities in protecting reefs.

    The Mombasa conference also coincided with the presentation of a new study on climate-resilient reefs, covered in the 17 June edition of Carbon Brief’s Cropped newsletter. (The study is currently in the final stages of peer review.)

    Coral reef in Raja Ampat, Indonesia. Credit: Noemi Merz / Ocean Image Bank
    Coral reef in Raja Ampat, Indonesia. Credit: Noemi Merz / Ocean Image Bank

    Building on a 2018 project that identified the 50 coral reefs that “form an optimal portfolio of reefs that are most likely to survive climate change”, the new work mapped more than 165,000km2 of coral reefs across 70 countries. These were found to have the best chances of persisting in the face of climate change and a warming, acidifying ocean.

    Dr Emily Darling, director of coral-reef conservation at the Wildlife Conservation Society and a co-author of the study, told Carbon Brief that “one of the key things countries can do that have these important reefs is elevate them into national policy” across multiple government sectors.

    She added that learning from these reefs will become vital over the coming months as El Niño warms the world’s oceans even further.

    Darling told Carbon Brief:

    “Climate change is not a single blanket on the world’s oceans. There are a lot of pockets of resilience, there are pockets of revolution for corals, and it’s all about finding those places, and how do we support them through the other local pressures that they experience that we know we can manage.”

    Although few monetary coral-related commitments were made at the summit, Norway pledged to allocate NOK 20m ($2m) to the Global Fund for Coral Reefs.

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    Fisheries

    One of the major achievements of the summit was the adoption of the Mombasa Declaration to advance fisheries transparency and combat illegal fishing.

    The declaration “recognise[s]” that illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a major factor driving the unsustainable use of ocean resources and the degradation of marine ecosystems.

    We celebrate growing global momentum toward achieving sustainable ocean management by 2030. Yet we remain deeply concerned about the threats of overfishing, ecosystem degradation, declining biodiversity, and maritime insecurity. We recognize that these issues are enabled by Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing and associated human rights abuses. We highlight that opacity in parts of the global seafood sector undermines efforts to combat IUU fishing and associated abuses, and therefore regard increased fisheries transparency as a critical response. Transparency in ownership structures is especially important to ensure that the ultimate beneficial owners responsible for IUU fishing activities are identified and held accountable.
    Excerpt from the preamble to the Mombasa Declaration. Source: The Mombasa Declaration (2026)

    The declaration, which was signed by 16 national governments – eight of them from Africa – commits parties to follow a set of principles laid out in the Global Charter for Fisheries Transparency. This was developed and promoted by a group of civil society organisations known as the Coalition for Fisheries Transparency.

    The commitments in the Mombasa Declaration fall within four broad categories:

    • Supporting transparency and accountability in the fishing industry.
    • Strengthening monitoring of fishing activities and cooperating with enforcement actions.
    • Building capacity and supporting implementation of transparency reforms.
    • Strengthening ocean-observing systems and promoting the use of open-access data.

    The declaration notes that these principles should “apply to and benefit both small-scale and industrial fisheries” and support “broader ocean-management efforts”.

    At a press conference announcing the launch of the declaration, Ghanaian fisheries and aquaculture minister Emelia Arthur called it a “global testament of our collective commitment to transparent fisheries”. She emphasised the importance of the sector to all aspects of life, saying:

    “Fisheries is nutrition. Fisheries is food security. Fisheries is livelihoods. Fisheries is national security.”

    Fishing boat and gannets, Cornwall, UK.
    Fishing boat and gannets, Cornwall, UK. Credit: David Chapman / Alamy Stock Photo

    Several civil society organisations, philanthropies, community groups and governments also made separate fisheries-related commitments at the summit.

    The EU committed €46m ($52m) through its Horizon Europe research programme to fisheries work, including €32m ($36m) for “adaptive co-management strategies” and €14m ($16m) for research on conservation and sustainable management of migratory fishes.

    The EU and Italy both also announced contributions to the European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund.

    The government of Kenya made nine fisheries-related pledges at the summit, including committing to train compliance officers dedicated to combatting IUU fishing, developing management plans for all of its commercial fisheries and establishing bycatch mitigation measures.

    At the summit, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization launched its biannual “state of world fisheries and aquaculture” report.

    According to the report, the world set a new record for fisheries and aquaculture in 2024 – producing a total of 235m tonnes of fish and algae. This total consisted of nearly 92m tonnes of fish from capture fisheries, 103m tonnes of farmed fish and 40m tonnes of algae production.

    Aerial view of a fish farm.
    Aerial view of a fish farm. Credit: Scharfsinn / Alamy Stock Photo

    The amount of fish produced by capture fisheries has remained largely stable since 2000, while aquaculture production has increased by an average annual percentage rate of just under 5%, according to the report.

    While the largest growth has occurred in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, the vast majority of aquaculture production – 89% – occurs in Asia.

    The report also says that more than one-third of the world’s marine fish stocks are overfished, with significant variation based on region and species. It adds that climate change may play an increasing role in driving the unsustainability of fisheries in the future:

    “Despite the uncertainty of climate risks in the short, medium and long term, studies on the impacts of climate change on aquatic food systems around the world increasingly document the relevance and potential success of adaptation measures, urging decision-makers to integrate climate change considerations into fisheries and aquaculture planning and management.”

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    The post Mombasa: Key outcomes from the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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    Climate Change

    Did Colombia’s energy transition just come to a halt?

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    Christopher Wright is the principal analyst at CarbonBridge, a decarbonisation consulting firm.

    Less than two months ago, Colombia hosted the world’s first international conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels. This weekend, however, it appears that Colombia’s first ever leftist presidency has ended. Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, who was last week strongly endorsed by Donald Trump, will not only take the reins of government but also steer the future of Colombia’s energy transition.

    As the world’s sixth-largest coal exporter, and fourth largest oil exporter in Latin America, Colombia plays a critical role in the world’s energy markets. However, this role had shrunk under President Gustavo Petro’s administration, as it sought to proactively shift the country away from its fossil-fuel based economy, ahead of a potential oil and gas production shortage over the next decade.

    That could all change as De la Espriella’s takes power. Calling himself the Tiger (“El Tigre”), he has promised to focus on deregulation, exploit oil extraction “to the maximum” and leverage the energy sector as a key “engine of growth”.

    Colombia’s world-leading energy transition

    Over the last four years, Colombia has embarked on one of the most rapid and holistic energy transitions anywhere in the world. Shortly after coming to power in 2022, the government of Gustavo Petro halted new oil and gas exploration contracts, suspended all hydraulic fracking pilots, and pledged to end the development of new unabated coal power plants.

    While many of these moves faced domestic and legislative challenges, they were widely praised in climate circles around the world.

    Colombia soon became a pivotal member of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance and the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Alliance. It then went on to host the biodiversity COP in 2024, launch a $40-billion climate transition investment portfolio, and famously, host the Santa Marta conference earlier this year.

    While fossil fuels still comprise around 7% of Colombia’s GDP and 56% of its total exports, there were already signs that the transition policies had begun to have an effect.

    Coal production last year fell to its lowest level in the last 22 years. According to the Colombian national association of coal producers, coal export volumes declined by 23% in 2025. While the oil sector has not seen an equivalent precipitous drop, production levels have remained historically low since COVID.

    What about its domestic electricity sector?

    Since the 1970s Colombia’s electricity sector has been dominated by large hydro-electric dams, endowing it with some of the lowest carbon electrons anywhere in the world. Today, close to 70% of its electricity supply comes from these large dams.

    However, electricity demand rose by close to 10% under the Petro government. To meet this demand, total installed electricity capacity has expanded by a similar figure, and solar power has made up over 70% of new electricity capacity since.

    As a result, by the end of 2025, gas power generation in the electricity sector had hit its lowest point since 2018. Wind power had doubled, and solar power generation had risen by over 630%. Colombia’s renewable energy association predicts that, by the end of 2026, the country may be home to more than 4.2 GW of installed variable renewable energy capacity.

    Far-right jumps on energy challenges

    Despite the progress, the last three years have been an incredibly challenging period for Colombia’s energy sector.

    During Petro’s first two years in office, inflation remained above 10%, and interest rates stayed above 13% for most of 2023. This put a pause on new energy investments, as foreign direct investment fell by a third since 2022.

    On top of this, Colombia suffered through an El Niño-fuelled drought in 2023-24, crippling its hydro-electric power supply. This forced the country to turn to expensive gas and coal power, just as both sectors had effectively begun to pull back. This sent electricity prices through the roof, increasing nearly 40% in a single year, and led the Petro government to intervene with price controls, aiming to protect everyday Colombians.

      Unsurprisingly, this made energy investors even more cautious. By the end of 2023, GDP growth had plummeted and renewable energy investments fell by 70%. Since then, all the major credit agencies have downgraded the country’s credit rating, making it even shakier to invest.

      As a result, even with the new solar coming online, and 1.2 GW of additional hydro-power from the Ituango dam expected by 2028, the country could still face a major energy deficit by 2027, with permitting delays halting project developments, and 5.1 GW of approved projects unable to reach financial close.

      Challenging domestic debate

      This has led to a challenging domestic debate on energy policy. While 96% of Colombians want to see solar expand further, they have been understandably frustrated by high electricity bills and limited economic growth.

      As a result, De la Espriella’s campaign, which has largely focused on taking a hardline stance to combat growing concerns around security and crime, was relatively open to solar power, but sought to blame Colombia’s current energy crisis on the speed of its current energy transition.

      Branding himself as neither a climate denialist nor “dogmatic environmentalist” the incoming president who will take office in August, will likely seek to revoke the ban on new hydrocarbon exploration contracts, legalise fracking and restructure the national oil company, Ecopetrol.

      While he is unlikely to cancel market-driven projects and may reduce regulatory hold-ups, it is also likely that he will shift away from the government’s recent overwhelming support for long-renewable energy and battery storage projects, which have driven much of the recent uptake in solar power.

      Future of energy transition in doubt

      In a country of close to 54 million people, the final election count was only decided by about 250,000 votes. However, this weekend’s margin belies the magnitude of the shift that will likely now take place.

      With the country facing a potential domestic energy shortage 2027, President-elect De la Espriella has promised to revitalise the hydrocarbon economy, shifting Colombia’s recent energy transition on an entirely new course.

      While this may unlock some regulatory challenges hindering renewables roll-out, broader support mechanisms for solar projects will likely be dismantled, and the broader economic transition abandoned, along with its recent flurry of international climate alliances.

      He will also take his place among a wave of right-leaning Presidents that have swept to power across the continent in the last 18 months. This has seen right-wing electoral victories across Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Argentina and now Colombia, with Peru’s Keiko Fujimori potentially joining the club soon – pending a final vote count.

      With the Brazilian elections scheduled for October, and run-off scenarios between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro still far too close to call, 2026 will undoubtedly be a pivotal year for Latin America’s energy future.

      The post Did Colombia’s energy transition just come to a halt? appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Did Colombia’s energy transition just come to a halt?

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