Warm-water coral reefs have crossed a tipping point due to global heating and are dying at an accelerated rate due to repeated mass bleaching events, impacting hundreds of millions of people who rely on them for fishing, tourism and protection from rising seas and storm surges, according to new research.
Global average temperatures are about 1.3-1.4C above pre-industrial times, which is higher than coral reefs can withstand. Their thermal tipping point is estimated to be 1.2C of warming.
If the trend is not reversed, coral reefs around the world will be lost, warned the second Global Tipping Points report, released on Monday and produced by more than 160 scientists in 23 countries, led by the Global Systems Institute at the UK’s University of Exeter.
Of the seven tipping points monitored by the researchers, this is the first to be shown as already passed. “We’ve actually already lost about half our warm-water coral reef cover, and we can expect accelerated change in the next few decades as well,” said Mike Barrett, chief scientific advisor at WWF-UK.
The report also said parts of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are losing ice at an accelerating speed, coming close to collapse. Greenland’s ice sheet is losing 266 billion tonnes of ice mass per year. If that meltwater flows into the North Atlantic and destabilises its subpolar gyre (large rotating current), it could produce a “Little Ice Age” in Europe, with worsening heatwaves in the summer but freezing months in the winter.
The report also said the Amazon rainforest is at greater risk than previously thought. Steven Smith from the Global Systems Institute told a webinar on the report that “the combined effects of climate change and deforestation put this [the rainforest] under threat between 1.5 to 2 degrees of warming.”
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Overshooting the 1.5C warming limit governments promised to try to keep to under the Paris Agreement now looks “pretty inevitable”, and could happen around 2030, according to the report.
The researchers said they are working with Brazil to ensure that tipping points are discussed at the COP30 climate summit it will host in November, highlighting actions that need to be taken fast.
Those include phasing out fossil fuels, increasing support for clean technologies and infrastructure, and switching to more sustainable food systems.
“Governance systems, national policies, rules, multinational agreements – including the Paris Agreement – were not designed with tipping points in mind,” said Manjana Milkoreit from the University of Oslo. “They’re made for linear or gradual changes, not the abrupt, irreversible and interconnected shifts in the Earth systems that we’re now facing.”
The consequences of a warming ocean
Corals not only provide livelihoods, food security and protection from tropical storms for over half a billion people – they also deliver $2.7 trillion annually in global economic benefits, the scientists said.
Melanie McField, founder and director of the Healthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative (HRI), explained that the tipping point is not necessarily irreversible, as not all corals are affected at the same time – and ocean protection efforts in general could save them from becoming victims of overfishing and pollution.
In recent weeks, new reports have confirmed the effects of heat on the oceans and marine life. The EU Copernicus Ocean State Report showed that almost a quarter of the global ocean surface experienced at least one severe to extreme marine heatwave event in 2023 – a trend that has accelerated since 2005.
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And last month, the annual planetary boundaries report from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) said the planetary limit for ocean acidification had been surpassed for the first time, weakening the oceans’ ability to act as Earth’s stabiliser.
Oceans turn more acidic by absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, a process that threatens marine life, with 1,677 species at risk of extinction, PIK said. The Copernicus report indicates a 16.5% increase in ocean acidity since 1985.
Meanwhile, ocean heatwaves not only have become more frequent but have also caused the planet’s seas to reach new record temperatures. The warmest the ocean has been since satellite data started to be collected was in spring 2024, when the global average hit 21C. More than 90% of the excess heat trapped in the Earth’s system due to human-caused global warming has been absorbed by the oceans, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Marta Marcos, an associate professor at the University of the Balearic Islands and one of the Copernicus’ study authors, told Climate Home News another key issue is the acceleration in sea level rise, which began speeding up in the 1960s-70s and is now above 4 millimetres per year. “Sea level not only continues to rise, but is rising at an ever faster rate,” she said.
While sea level rise is a global trend, the major risk is in densely populated cities near the sea. For example, in Europe around 200 million people live near coastlines – and higher baseline sea levels increase the threat to their homes and infrastructure from extreme weather. “When a storm comes, with its surge and waves, it has a much greater destructive potential,” explained Marcos.
Blue NDCs bring oceans into climate plans
Marcos believes there is growing government interest in protecting the oceans. In September, the High Seas Treaty, which lays the ground for the creation of marine protected areas (MPAs) in international waters, reached the 60 government ratifications needed for it to take effect.
And during New York Climate Week in September, Chile and the UK committed to include ocean-based solutions in their national climate plans (known as NDCs). Eleven countries have now joined the “Blue NDC” project which encourages governments – depending on their circumstances – to manage marine ecosystems, phase out offshore oil and gas production, expand clean ocean energy, cut emissions and support sustainable fisheries.
Others with Blue NDCs are Brazil, France, Australia, Fiji, Kenya, Mexico, Palau, Madagascar and the Republic of Seychelles.
Such ocean-based solutions can provide 35% of the emissions reductions the world needs by 2035, a study by the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy shows.
Mary Creagh, the UK’s minister for nature, said oceans are central to her country’s NDC – but work is still being finalised on how to count emissions reductions from seagrass and seaweed management and coastal restoration. “We’re working on the science, which we’re happy to share globally once it is complete,” she added.
One key challenge is getting the world’s largest fish-producing countries to sign up to tackle ocean issues in their climate plans, particularly Asian heavyweights such as China, Indonesia, India and Vietnam.
Blue NDC member and COP30 host Brazil, meanwhile, recently announced its largest oil and gas discovery in 25 years in the Santos Basin, 400 kilometres off its coast.
Nonetheless, Marcos said such initiatives are important, adding that any effective action “has to be global, coordinated, and based on data and science”.
Marinez Scherer, a marine biologist and coastal management expert who is the COP30 Special Envoy for Oceans, said the upcoming operationalisation of the High Seas Treaty is a step forward on the path to the climate summit, which she said would discuss a plan to speed up implementation of ocean solutions.
Scherer said COP30 will present measures that are currently working in Brazil and show the world what’s needed to “plan and manage the ocean in a very healthy and sustainable way”.
The post As coral reefs pass tipping point, ocean protection rises up political agenda appeared first on Climate Home News.
As coral reefs pass tipping point, ocean protection rises up political agenda
But a $345 million U.S. verdict against the environmental group hangs over the case.
A lawsuit filed by Greenpeace International against the U.S.-based fossil fuel company Energy Transfer in the Netherlands is moving forward after a Dutch court recently ruled in favor of the environmental organization in rejecting the company’s bid to toss out the case.
Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances
Go behind the scenes with executive editor Vernon Loeb and oceans correspondent Teresa Tomassoni as they discuss the search for heat-resilient coral reefs that are somehow defying the odds to survive a warming planet.
The world has already lost more than half of its coral reefs, and most of what remains is at risk of disappearing in the next 25 years.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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