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Uptime’s Guide to Upcoming Wind Energy Events
Allen and Joel discuss the best conferences in the wind industry in the upcoming months. Across the world, the wind industry is coming together to better the industry and share knowledge.
Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!
You are listening to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast brought to you by build turbines.com. Learn, train, and be a part of the Clean Energy Revolution. Visit build turbines.com today. Now here’s your hosts, Allen Hall, Joel Saxon, Phil Totaro, and Rosemary Barnes.
Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host Allen Hall, and I’m.
Here with Joel Saxum, who’s up in Wisconsin, and Joel and I have been talking back and forth about all the conferences that we need to attend, and it’s going to be that time of year. We need to be planning for the end of your conferences in 25. And then getting, uh, your registrations in for conferences in 2026.
It’s coming up fast, Joel.
Joel Saxum: Yeah, I know. This is the time of year where like blade season is over. A lot of the heavy repair season is over. MCE work starts to get a little bit touch and go depending on where you are. We’re getting into September, October. It starts to snow here soon in some places in the northern, uh, [00:01:00] latitudes.
So it’s also coinciding with that is the time when companies starts. Spooling up their budgets for 26. And those budgets are operations and maintenance budgets. They also include for, you know, depending on the team, you’re on, engineering asset management. It, it is conference budgets and it’s, uh, you know, these things aren’t cheap.
Uh, so that’s one of the complaints that we have globally about a lot of these conferences is, uh, you know, some of ’em are getting up to, it used to be a couple hundred dollars to get in. Now they’re 1500. 2000. I even heard of one to 2,500 to get in the door, which is. A bit extreme. So if I could say anything to the, uh, conference organizers, please stop raising the prices.
But like Allen said, it’s that time of year to start planning these things. ’cause it’s conference, the fall conference season starts kicking back off, uh, at a global way. So, uh, we’re gonna walk through some of those conferences and, uh. Can I share with you our thoughts and the knowledge that we have around some of ’em and where we’ll be?
Allen Hall: Yeah. And the, the first one on the list is one that it’s just gonna pass by the time this podcast comes out, which is hu Some [00:02:00] and Hu Some’s the big energy conference in Germany. And uh, it is. Just massively popular. It has been the, uh, counterpart to, uh, Hamburg every year. So the alternate year to year. So everybody that goes to Hamburg tends to go to Husam, and whoever goes to Husam tends to go to Hamburg.
It’s a great place. There’s a ton of technology there, and anybody that’s of interest in wind needs to go there at least once in their lifetime and see it.
Joel Saxum: Yeah, it’s like a, it’s a wind mecca. Conference. So when we talk Huso, usually it’s more focused on onshore. Hamburg is more focused on offshore, uh, which is really cool to see.
Of course, most companies that are playing in these spaces are dabbling in a little bit of both, whether you’re an ISP or you’re an operator or a financier, whatever it may be. But this is one of those conferences that Allen and I regularly tell people specifically from the North American market, if you haven’t been over to the European conferences, the big European [00:03:00]conferences.
You should go, um, just to see what kind of technology, what they’re doing, what’s a little bit different. Have some conversations with some different mindsets around operations and maintenance or development, or whether it’s greenfield, brownfield, whatever it may be. Because the Europeans are, you know, they’ve been in wind longer than we have over here in, in the North America, so they have some different ways of doing things and different technologies.
We always come back from there with, uh, some good context. I would say that. So, uh, encourage people to travel over there for that one.
Allen Hall: October is when the conference season for companies begins. There’s a lot of user forums happening. Two in particular that, uh, we have been paying attention to the last couple years and participated in.
One is the Sky Specs user forum, or customer forum, which is happening October 7th and eighth up in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Joel and I will be there again this year. Hosting some panels, uh, talking a little bit about lightning protection, uh, part in most of the us uh, most of their customers are in the US but [00:04:00] the Sky Specs event is really, really good.
If you’re interested in optimum maintenance schedules for your turbines, what’s going on with blades and new blades that are out in service? What’s happening there? It’s the way to connect with the industry, at least in the US It is, yeah. This year, the, the,
Joel Saxum: the focus of the event is predict. Prevent perform.
Um, so that they’re gonna talk through a lot of the different, uh, solu solutions that Skys spec has. And it’s not really a sales conversation, so I don’t wanna say that, but it’s, it’s how these things fit. It’s what can be done. And we’ve been, we were there last year as well. And it is, just to be clear, it is an invite only event.
So if you would like to go shoot us an email, um, and we could probably get you in there. But the conference is. Very focused on how to solve problems. You have this problem, this is how you solve it. We’re looking at this strategy, this is how you implement it. Um, we’ve, we’ve ran into this issue at say, end of warranty.
This is how you do these things. Um, and it is a, [00:05:00] I really like it because it’s an, it’s an intimate setting. There’s, you know, 50, 60 people there, and it’s all engineers, asset managers from a, from. Uh, you know, scada engineers do blade engineers. It’s, it’s the group of some of the smartest people in wind. Um, a lot of ’em from the US and North and North American general.
Uh, but yeah, that event, um, we really like that one. So we’ll be up there in Ann Arbor, uh, October 7th and eighth for sure.
Allen Hall: The other one, which is really popular is the Onyx event in Colorado, and it’s in the middle of October, October 14th and 15th. That also, I think that’s an invite only event, Joel, is that right?
Joel Saxum: Yeah. You got to reach out to Onyx. Um, we, we don’t deal with that team directly usually, so if you wanna try to get into that one, you’re on your own.
Allen Hall: Yeah. But I hear great things from it, people that have attended that event. Love it and have usually attend it quite frequently, every year. Uh, if, especially if you’re needing some CMS help or some, uh, specific things with there, there’s a lot of, uh, onyx [00:06:00] systems on a number of turbines, so it came delivered that way.
If you need help or insights as to what is actually happening with your turban, uh, it’s a good place to go. Onyx, we’ve had him on the podcast. Smart people, a good resource, and you should think about going there. The, the first real big open event, uh, in terms of wind energy, particularly o and m, is the wind summit event in Houston, which is the first annual event, October 14th and 15th.
Joel Saxum: Yeah. So that one, uh, down in Houston, I believe it as the, is at the Asian Society, so downtown, um, near the medical center. Uh, it is going to be a lot of, uh, some of the same MA material that we’re familiar with from our Melbourne conference last year. So, uh, again, a lot of value add. You can leave this event, um.
Learning something, something you can bring back to your team to uh, be able to implement to help in the future. And, uh, Allen and I, uh, as well as Rosemary here on the podcast, uh, of course [00:07:00] plus Phil Phil’s about organizing this one. Uh, mostly uh, we will be presenting, we’ll be hosting some panels moderating, um, and sharing some insights.
So that one is in Houston the same time as Onyx is, uh, going on up in Colorado.
Allen Hall: Yeah, the Wind Summit event, you can actually find online@windsummit.org. You can check out the events happening there. Uh, and then Joel and I are look, going to attend or try to attend two events at the same time. I’m not sure how we’re gonna pull that one off, but UK Offshore Wind Supply Chain Spotlight in Edinburgh, Scotland is December 11th, and just before that one is the Mi Plastics, uh, wind Turbine Blades Europe event, which is more of a supply.
Chain for blades, and that’s in Dusseldorf, and I haven’t been to the Dusseldorf event before. However, uh, everybody I talk to that has. Spin to that. Loves it and returns to it if you need anything in terms of sourcing materials, what’s, uh, about to come out in terms of new resin systems, new kinds of fibers, new [00:08:00] technology, uh, things in the factory to make blades, uh, quicker, lower cost.
All that happens in Juel, Dorf Plus, uh, you get to, I think a lot of the OEM blade designers are there, so you can actually cross paths with the people that are designing blades. It’s a, it is a good place to meet. Dusseldorf, uh, in December should be really nice. All the Christmas activities will be in full force.
It should be a good time, but, you know, be prepared. It’s gonna be a little bit chilly, I’m afraid, Joel.
Joel Saxum: Yeah. But I think, uh, uh, at the same time as well, the event in Edinburgh that we’re gonna go to the Ori Catapult, the UK offshore wind, uh, supply chain spotlight. We’re bringing jackets, uh, jackets and boots to both of those events for sure.
Um, yeah, that, that winter ride and Blades, Europe, uh, we’ve been a part of the a MI plastics event that’s kind of a mirror to this one in the states. Uh, Allen, I think you were there last year moderating a few panels.
Allen Hall: Yeah. In Boston.
Joel Saxum: Up in Boston there. And it is, it is a unique event, uh, because most of the blade stuff that we go to, blades or uh, o and m focused is [00:09:00] where are we at now?
Right? Once they’re installed, once we’re doing operations maintenance, once we’re running these wind farms, whereas this one you get access to a lot of knowledge, material knowledge. Um. Science, presentations, technology, and people that are actually designing and building the blades. Um, so you will see some, some aftermarket companies will be there, right?
Such as, I mean like, like, uh, weather guard here with our strike tape product. Um, that is something that can be, you know, applied in the factory as well. So you’ll see some of, uh, the likes of the, of the aftermarket type people like ourselves there, but. It is one of the few events where you can get access to those blade engineers.
So whether you’re really happy with them or you wanna stare ’em straight in the eye, they’re gonna be there and you can have conversation at that time. That one’s exciting. Uh, Dusseldorf as well. A beautiful little town.
Allen Hall: Yeah, it’s gonna be a good time in December.
Joel Saxum: One of the reasons that I’m excited for the ORE Catapult, uh, UK offshore wind supply chain spotlight, Allen is.
There’s gonna be like 80 to 90 exhibitors. It’s only [00:10:00] a one day event. Um, and they’re very keen on making it an even playing field for everybody there. So the goal is to be able to showcase to engineers, asset managers, procurement people, uh, from all of these asset owners and OEMs what is available in the marketplace and from the uk.
So we know some of our friends are gonna be there, like our buddy Bill Slatter over at 11 I who, uh, just was purchased by Onyx. Congratulations, bill. Um, he’ll be there. And so you’ll see those kind of, those, the, some of the smaller companies, some of the bigger companies showcasing themselves. And one thing I wanna flag with this event that I am really, really keen on is I think it’s like 500 bucks to get in the door.
It’s inexpensive. Yeah. Inexpensive. So you get the value out of the thing. You’re not shelling out a fortune. And you get to see the best of the best of what’s happening in the UK market. Uh. To help your wind farms.
Allen Hall: Yeah. Everybody affiliated with that conference swears to me, Scotland, it’s gonna be beautiful in December, so, but if it’s not, there’s plenty of, of, uh, great [00:11:00] whiskey to have, so don’t, don’t sweat it too much.
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And then we get into, uh, January after the holidays, there’s not much going on. Uh, the first big conference is really in February, which is the Wind Energy o and m Australia 2026 event, which Joel [00:12:00] Rosemary. I am helping with, uh, everybody at eLog Ping is helping with, that’s the 17th and 18th of February in Melbourne, Australia.
Uh, we had a, a great attendance last year. It’s gonna even be slightly bigger this year. And I have a feeling ’cause it’s, it’s already starting. Registrations are starting. We’re gonna run outta space here pretty quick here, Joel. Last year
Joel Saxum: we were, we thought to ourselves when we were putting the, in the inaugural girl conference together, if we get a hundred people, that’d be great.
We ended up with like 172 and capacity was 175, had to shut ticket sales off. Uh, so we are actually moving venues for that event this year. We’re gonna cap it at 250 people. Uh, but a, a resounding um, yes from the Australian, uh, wind energy world from that conference as it’s one of the only technically focused o and m.
Again, how can you bring value back from this conference to your company and, and learn something? Uh, one of the things that was really cool last year, we brought in some of our, our [00:13:00] friends and family from the podcast network from around the world, and I think almost every one of those companies has opportunities ongoing in Australia now.
Reason being, if you don’t know the Australian market, it’s, I mean, it is quite literally on an island. Uh, so it’s hard to get people, resources, technology, things down there. Um, and when they do get, uh, opportunities, uh, to fix their problems, they’re keen on it, right? Because it’s. It’s a remote place. The wind farms are far out.
You don’t, uh oh. And it’s not like you’re turning around to go to the, you know, the, the wind turbine store next, next door, grab some parts and go fix a turbine. It’s difficult to keep these things running in a remote and tough environment in Australia. So the, uh, operations and maintenance teams of those wind farms are very keen on solutions.
Um, we. We had a great time down there. Um, thank you to all of the Australian Wind Energy folks that we met. Um, and we will be repeating this year, uh, and it will be bigger and better. So we’re, we’re quite excited about it.
Allen Hall: Yeah. And [00:14:00] if you’re interested in sponsoring that event, just go to Woma, WM a 2026 or get a hold of Joel on LinkedIn and he can get you hooked up there, uh, because they’re gonna.
Run outta space for sponsors. That’s happening very quickly. I’m, I’m really shocked, uh, at how responsive the Australian market is to o and m events because there’s so many non o and m events. I guess this is pretty much the one. Great work that’s happening in Australia. There’s so much to learn too. So if you’re from Europe or you’re in the United States, Canada, even Brazil, uh, if you want to see how resilient and, and, and remarkably efficient, uh, to, to run a wind farm, go check out what what they’re doing in Australia.
And Joel and I had an opportunity after the event last year, we went to a couple of the operators there. I was blown away. I really was blown away. Really efficient teams, super bright, right on top of it. Uh, we’re [00:15:00] doing things in unique but at just smart ways that I, I hadn’t seen in the states. That is why you want to go check out other places because, uh, you know, not only answers lie in Europe and, and Brazil or the States, right?
And those are the big markets, uh, that they fly in places like Australia, which has to be resilient. That’s the beauty of Australia. They’ve taken
Joel Saxum: advantage in a good way of, of entering a wind market in a certain age, right? So they came in, they’ve, they’ve allowed, uh, the, the turbine suppliers, OEMs, this to be these FSA holders for them for a while.
But now as the market matures, they watched the lessons from all the other markets and now they’re taking it, taking it on themselves. Um, so it’s really cool to see them grow. I mean, the, there’s total salt capacity down there is about. 4,700 turbines, but it’s growing. Uh, we’ve been having conversations with a lot of, a lot of wind, a lot of operators are developing right now.
Um, so I would expect that market to grow, grow fast too. Go to
Allen Hall: [00:16:00] Wilma 2020 six.com. Sign up now and get your tickets booked, uh, in March. Uh, American Clean Power was back with OMNS in Orlando. They were, we were in Orlando, what, two, three years ago for OMNS. Uh, pretty good attendance down there. Obviously Orlando is where the Magic Kingdom is, and all the, the fun amusement parks are all down there.
The new Harry Potter, uh, rides and all that are happening. It’s a good place to to go. It’s easy to get in and out of, particularly if, if you’re from Europe, you can fly to Orlando usually cheaply. It’s kinda like going to Vegas without all the gambling. Uh, but. It’s a big event for Weather Guard, lightning Tech, because we’re part of that om and s solution.
So all the, uh, the gearbox people are there, all the equipment, people for technicians, all the tool people are there. It’s really more of a hands-on event than it is a theoretical policy event. This is the [00:17:00] one. I think is the more interesting of the two. Honestly, the, you know, the, a big A CP is fun, but it’s not as hands-on as om and s we get to see everybody too before the blade season starts.
Joel Saxum: Yeah. That’s the big key there is, um, om and s of course, operations, maintenance and safety is what it stands for. Um, so the safety guys are there too, which is, which goes hand in hand the operations and maintenance. Right? They, those are three things that. Bang, bang, bang. So Orlando this year, we were in Tennessee last year.
I know a lot of people complaining that we’re not back in San Diego yet, and hopefully a CP listens and gets us back out to Coronado Island. ’cause that’s always fun out there. Uh, but yeah, so Orlando this year, uh, March in Florida, come on. It’s beautiful. Um, a lot of golf courses around there. If you’re a fan of golfing, this is a good one to take the family to.
Yeah, Lars. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, we can shout out to our buddy, uh, Kyle Rener from bp. I know he, he’s a fan of the golf course and Matt Segal. Um, so, uh, that’s a, that’s, that’s a, that’s a callback to Phoenix if you guys are listening. Um, but um, [00:18:00] yeah, so that event is always really good. Like Allen said, we get to run into everybody that’s basically dealing with the problems that we here at Weather Guard Solve are there.
Right. So it’s Blade people, it’s the ISPs that are looking for the blade people. The one thing I feel bad for sometime at this event is. The, the asset managers and engineers from the operators. ’cause they get hounded, like, like there’s a bunch of bird dogs falling around, which was all the ISPs. Um, but, uh, yes, a great event.
It is a, this one is, it’s a bit smaller, right? One, we, I think the first oh, M and SI went to is like 1100 people and now it’s about 22, 2300. Um, but it does seem more and more like it’s a. I mean, from the uptime side, right? From our, from our desks. It’s a, it’s a, it’s a network event. It’s a family event.
We’re a constant, it’s just people we know all day long. Coming up to the booth, talking last, last year, uh, we are, we were sitting in the booth with AC 8 83 and of course those guys, uh, goofy Danish Canadians, draw crowd as [00:19:00]well. Um, so lots of good friends, lots of good times. O, m and S is a good event.
Allen Hall: As wind energy professionals, staying informed is crucial, and let’s face it difficult.
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Visit PES win.com today. The one blade event that does happen in, in the US is Blaze, USA, which happens in February. It looks like it’s what, 23rd or 24th this year down in Austin, Joel?
Joel Saxum: Yeah. So you and I will just be coming back from Australia, um, and then turn around and have that event. Luckily it’s in my hometown, so I only have to drive down 45 minutes.
You have to fly. Uh, but Blades us a is a, it’s the Perennial Blade event, uh, that everybody likes to go to in the States. Um, Austin again in February is nice, but, um. I [00:20:00] know this year I’ve talked with the organizers a little bit and they’re, they’re wanting to, uh, freshen up some of the material. You know, we’ve been talking about the same kind of inspections and strategy and stuff the last few years, so I would expect to see a bit of a refreshed, um, lineup for panelists in those kind of panels.
Um, at that event.
Allen Hall: Well, it should because of the change in the production tax credits. The whole landscape has changed in terms of operation and maintenance on blades in particular. Obviously gear boxes are a problem. Sure. But blades tend to be the, the bigger overall problem and uh, getting everybody together to talk about how to keep blades running 20 years instead of 10 is something that we haven’t really done in the United States in a long time.
Uh, obviously. The expertise lies within the operators generally, but, uh, you, you gotta, it’s just a different reframe to a problem that we’ve been solving by putting new blades [00:21:00] on every 10 years. And if you want to get the latest info of what operators are doing or how they’re trying to approach this problem, you need to get down to Austin.
So to register for the blade USA forum. Go to ablate usa forum.com. I think you, the registration page is up. You can actually book a spot at that event. Uh, what’s the general size of that event, Joel? It’s a couple hundred people, roughly 200 maybe? Uh, yeah,
Joel Saxum: a hundred and seventy five, two hundred, something like that.
Um, I, I, I would say when you’re trying to figure out the event, um. If you’re working on a work computer, I would caution you to not type in Blades USA or you’re gonna get blocked ’cause you’ll get a bunch of knife websites. Um, but yeah, as Allen was saying, and, and this is less of a focus on conferences here, but this is just a conversation we’ve been having ongoing on the podcast and the background and whatnot.
Is that, and with operators and ISPs and then the as market, is that the changes from this one big beautiful bill act [00:22:00] and how it’s going to impact wind operations for the next. For the foreseeable future. We don’t know what can happen in four years, eight years, whatever it may be. Uh, but we are looking at a, a big change in how we’re gonna operate.
Wind turbines, uh, blades being a very specific one, right? Because, uh, again, PTC Repower, Hey, at 10, 11 years old, let’s just fix these things. Whereas now you need to extend the life, um, and have a, you know, tracking remaining useful life. What does strategy look like? When do we put on LEP now, because that strategy all changes when you’re gonna just decommission these blades before.
Do we add a product, like a strike tape? Do we add zgs? What do we do here? So a lot of these conferences in the United States, and I’m gonna say. Sky Spec user forum will touch on it. Um, the, of course the blades, USA conference will touch on it. A-A-C-P-O-M-S there’s gonna be big, big conversations about it that is gonna be a big part of the conversation and win for the next few years while we, um, are staring at [00:23:00] these big strategic or tactical changes within management.
Allen Hall: Yeah. And I, and with the blades, USA, this may be a, just a really unique year. It would be good to have more OEM presence there. Uh, I think there’d be a lot of questions about how are we gonna maintain these blades? And obviously the people that designed the blade should have a, a pretty good idea about that.
But also, uh, people coming up from Brazil or even Spain and, you know, a lot of the turbines in Spain are kind of reaching that end of life period. Some of the UK it is kind of spread around Europe actually. It would be good to have some people, knowledgeable people come over to that blade USA conference and get on stage.
Talk about how they’re approaching this problem where you don’t have the financial incentives to, uh, remove and replace the blades every 10 years. How do you deal with this issue? I know there’s a lot you and I, Joel, have here. All kinds of operators talk about all kinds of things at the minute.
Everybody’s just really trying to understand the scope of the problem. They got a year or two to figure it [00:24:00] out, but. Come 2026, you better start forming a plan. ’cause you’re, honestly, we’re not even really sure what’s gonna happen in 2026 at this point. As fast as things are changing in the us who knows?
Joel Saxum: Yeah, I can see. So, back at the beginning of this conversation, we started this episode of the of the Uptime podcast. Here. We talked a little bit about, Hey, it’s the end of blade season. People are starting to set their budgets for 26 budgets, meaning operations and maintenance, how much we’re gonna spend per turbine, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Uh, I have heard from a few operators that they are actually increasing their blade repair budgets. Two reasons. Yeah, two reasons. Partially because they’re behind on blade repairs, right? They’re running into like, Hey, we ran outta budget this year again, right? So they’re, the, the blade repairs, they, they’re running outta deficit to get things done with the budget they’ve had.
So that is starting to stack upon itself. So now they have to inject, uh, a larger amount to get it up to speed at this time. Compounding on that is [00:25:00] the same idea. Hey, you’re not gonna get PTCs right now, you’re, unless you got a repower basically in the works and you’ve got something either safe harbor or turbines quoted on delivery before July 4th of next year.
You’re in a tough spot. So I could see some budgets that some of these operators changing, um, for the 2026 fiscal year. Um, now I haven’t heard specifically like from anybody that’s like, yeah, we’re increasing by 21.6%. I haven’t heard that. Um, but I, I have heard whisperings of changes happening in that world.
Allen Hall: Well, and I think if you’re an engineer or technician at some of these companies. It’s good to invest in yourself and obviously if your company will pay for you to attend these events, great. Love it, right? Definitely put in for it. Hopefully the operators, uh, will pay for this educational trip. That’s exactly what it is, right?
It’s, it’s a way for everybody to get spooled up to, to learn a bunch of things. But sometimes, you know, you know, the first thing to go [00:26:00] after marketing is travel budgets. And, uh, if you don’t have a travel budget. And you plan to stay on in wind, you need to do a little spending on yourself. Some of these conferences are relatively easy to get to.
Blades. USA is an easy one to get to in Austin. Uh, a CP in Orlando, OMS is easy to get to. You’re not gonna spend a bunch of money. Usually your company will give you a day or two off to go do these events if you’re gonna pay for ’em yourself. That’s the way I used to do it. Not that you have to do it that way, but that’s the way I used to do it.
It’s important to keep up at the latest and greatest because your value to your company is what’s in your head. And the more good stuff you can get in your head and more answers you can help them with, the more likely, um, you’re gonna be promoted and, and grow within those organizations. Because right now, all the operators are looking for.
Smart people. They’re, they’re just looking for bodies. They used to be looking [00:27:00] for bodies two years ago. Now they’re looking for the, the brightest, the most connected, the, the most on top of what the industry is doing. That’s who they’re hiring. Yeah. I want to focus on that one
word you said there. Allen was the most connected.
Joel Saxum: Um, and this is coming from, uh, an, an ex engineer or still an engineer, I guess technically, but, uh, that has gone to the dark set of commercial things. So one, one time. A guy told me, um, your network is your network. Um, so focusing on that, I know like engineers for the most part, like, um, stereotypically it’s a psyche.
It’s this, I’m gonna solve this problem. I’m gonna do these things, I’m gonna do this. Now if you, if you sit back for a second and you fly over the top of the trenches and you look out, sometimes it’s nice to just know people that can solve problems for you or with you. So if you have this, like we get those calls like, oh man, I’m so glad I met you guys.
Help me, helping me to solve my lightning problem. Because that’s what we do at Weather Guard. We partner with people, we support, we work in, in cohesion to make sure we’re solving those issues. We’re not just selling [00:28:00] a product walking away. So we’re a good person to have in your network. Right. So I have in my network, or Allen, we both have the same people.
Like in the CMS world, we know. Man. Beer box, CMS blade, CMS, icing, CMS, acoustics, lightning. We know all kinds of people, so if someone has a CMS problem, we can help them out. So we’re able to help people solve problems. I think that that’s a very important thing. I know that, um, you know, these, the events at conferences, whether it is a opening reception, um, whether it is walking the exhibition floor.
Whatever it may be, meeting those people and making those connections also can help you, um, to learn more, to expand your horizons and, um, kind of, uh, be able to be of more value to your team, um, in the
Allen Hall: future. Absolutely. So Joel, this has been great to, to walk through what the conferences and symposiums I, I do wanna bring up one more that’s sort of near and dear to me [00:29:00] because leading edge erosion is one of the things that we have dealt with at Weather Guard when, ’cause a lot of operators talk to us about it.
There’s the sixth International Symposium on leading edge erosion and protection of wind turbine blades, and that’s in Ross, Gilda, Denmark. It’s, it’s sponsored by DTU. It’s fourth through 6th of February, so I’ve been to that one about two years ago. It’s not unpleasant weather, but it is a little chilly.
Uh, but anybody that’s anybody in leading edge erosion is there. Blade aerodynamics is there. Uh, it’s a worldwide event. People from all over come to that event and it’s, it’s hard to describe because there’s so much information coming at you so fast. It’s about, it’s really roughly two days of just leading edge.
This leading edge that here’s what we tried, this is what works. This is the testing we’re doing, this is the testing you should be doing. All that data [00:30:00] has no other place to reside, and DTU has put this conference together for a last couple of years. Wonderful conference. If you can get there. Do it. So even if you’re an operator in Texas, hey you, I know you have leading edge erosion.
Come on, let’s be honest. You have leading edge erosion and you probably reached out to different companies to see what they have to offer. All that information is sitting there at DTU in February. Everybody, all the, everybody that makes a product will be there. Everybody that has tried a product will be there.
So you can actually talk to someone who has used a leading edge protection material. You could talk to the people who offer leading Edge protection materials. You can talk about, uh, the testing that happens because at DTU, they have a rain erosion test facility, which we had on the podcast. Uh, that is the best one on the planet.
So you’re going to the right place. For leading edge protection. So you want to, just that one, you have to Google, and that’s the best way to find that one. DTU, uh, six [00:31:00] International Symposium on leading edge erosion. Put that into the Google machine, it’ll pop up. Uh, getting to there is relatively easy. You have to find a Copenhagen.
It’s just up the road. It’s it Ross Gill. It’s not that far from Copenhagen. Uh, it, it is very well done, so I have to speak highly of that one. I have presented there with, uh, Nicholas Godder with Power Curve about two years ago. Fabulous. Absolutely fabulous. So I’m trying to get to that one. If Joel will let me go this year, uh, to, ’cause I just, I think everybody’s there is really interested to talk to.
It’s a, it’s a very scientific community, but it’s worldwide. It’s, it’s, it’s unlike any other conference you’re gonna go to, in my opinion.
Joel Saxum: So, Allen, as we’re sitting here. You talked, you, you brought up the Leading Edge Symposium beginning of February. There’s another conference in the beginning of February every year that is much like this one.
So Leading Edge Symposium is very much focused on a problem leading edge erosion, what’s happening, what’s the science, what’s going on there. The other one, which is the, is the few days right before this, so you [00:32:00] could make a trip and hit both of them is winter wind, winter wind up in sva, so winter, and they do this one February 2nd and fourth in Northern Sweden.
So if you’re, it’s all about Arctic climate and, and to make sure that you’re thinking about Arctic climate, they put you in the middle of the Arctic climate in the beginning of February.
Allen Hall: Yeah. It’s mostly Scandinavians that are there. But, uh, where’s it gonna be held out this year? Joel? Is it in Aura? It’s in sva.
Sva, okay. All right. So I went there two years ago and it was in Aura. Beautiful ski chalet place. Amazing. Absolutely amazing. The sight lanes were incredible. Uh, and, but the technical content there, if you have any icing issue, if you’re in Canada, Northern us, anywhere in Northern Europe, uh, that is the place to go.
Because all icing questions can get answered there. All the technology people are there. All the protective coatings are there. All the de-icing companies [00:33:00] are there. All the sensor companies are there. It’s not the biggest conference in the world. Again, there’s probably a hundred, maybe 150 people that attend it, but it’s extremely well organized.
Very well organized, and it’s it, it’s maybe not the easiest place to get to. Traveling around Sweden, in my opinion, is not necessarily easy. However, once you’re there, you’re gonna learn so much. You’re gonna connect with both, all the, everybody that is doing research in icing or has a system that you’re interested in, you can talk to them about it and get the latest, uh, you know, how they’re using a system, how it works.
Do they like it? What do you like, what do you don’t like? That’s why you travel to Sweden for winter wind is to get that knowledge because anything in icing is expensive, in my opinion. To do anything about it is not cheap. So you, you want to have the right answer for your application and you’re gonna get it if you travel to Sweden.
Yeah, and that
Joel Saxum: one, um, they do a really cool job. Everybody I’ve talked to up [00:34:00] there is like, well, when it was an hour they, they’d go skiing, right? It was like, oh, we’ll go a day before the day after we go skiing. But I know last year they, they, the conference organizers organized a field trip to one of the largest wind farms in Sweden.
Um, and the, a ton of people from the conference went, so they had bus, bus loads of people that got to go out, see things in an extreme arctic environment to see how they operate up there in, in northern Sweden. And I think that that is a. That’s a really nice thing to be able to do. Kind of like if you’re in Copenhagen and you get the chance to go out to Stri and see the big test site like that is a, again, a wind mecca thing.
So very, very cool. Um, uh, thinking about doing that one myself here soon.
Allen Hall: Yeah. You wanna bring your mittens to winter wind. It’s cold. Yeah, be prepared. It’s so, yeah, if you’re from one of the southern US states or France or somewhere where the weather is decent. Spain, Italy, Greece. Oh, Greece is beautiful.
It takes a little, [00:35:00] uh, a might to get stuff on that airplane knowing when you get off that airplane, it’s going to be cold. But, uh, you know, a lot of operators have wind turbines all over the place. We, we’ve talked to operators in Southern Europe that have turbines up north, and you’re gonna have to take one for the team and go up there and, and participate in that.
That way you can just Google, uh, Joel, what’s the website for that? It is Winter wind.se. So Joel, I mean that, that’s a pretty good list for everybody. Uh, we just wanted to, to put it out there. Now’s the time to start looking at your travel schedules. Yes, yes, yes, I know. Travel budgets are being cut. However you need to invest in yourself and get out there and find out what’s going on in the wind world.
So this has been a, a great update. Joel. I appreciate uh, you organizing this. If you have any questions, obviously reach out to us. We’re both on LinkedIn and uh, next week Rosie and Phil will be back. And we will have a, a regular uptime episode. So thank you so much for joining us, and we’ll see you here next week [00:36:00] on the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast.
https://weatherguardwind.com/uptime-wind-events/
Renewable Energy
NextEra Buys Dominion, China Outpaces Vestas
Weather Guard Lightning Tech
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NextEra Buys Dominion, China Outpaces Vestas
NextEra’s $67B all-stock Dominion deal targets data center alley. Plus China’s top five each outpace Vestas, and 80% of Swedish wind producers ran at a loss.
Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!
[00:00:00] The Uptime Wind Energy podcast, brought to you by StrikeTape, protecting thousands of wind turbines from lightning damage worldwide. Visit striketape.com. And now, your hosts
Speaker 6: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall, and I’m here with three other people, Matthew Stead, Rosemary Barnes, and, uh, Yolanda Padron down in Texas. Uh, we’re all getting ready to go to American Clean Power in Houston, Texas, where it will be practically 150 degrees and 99% humidity, and we’re all looking forward to those warm, wet days that we will spend
It is very similar to New Orleans. New Orleans was also very warm and very humid. So there’s a trend going on here with American Clean Power, although we were up in Minneapolis not too long ago, uh, but I guess we were in Phoenix too, so we gotta find a middle ground, everybody. Can we go someplace like– [00:01:00] Rosemary says we should always go to the Maldives, Tahiti.
I got a lot of requests from Tahiti from people. We never go there. We never go to Hawaii.
Rosemary Barnes: I’ve suggested Hawaii so many times, and I’ve been told that Americans are not gonna be given permission from their manager to go to Hawaii.
Speaker 6: It’s kinda like Las Vegas.
Rosemary Barnes: Maybe one day we’ll make it to San Diego or something and get, um, beach adjacent facility And if your presentation is too boring, then everyone will be at the beach.
So that will be how we ensure quality control of the speakers, which is a big problem at these events now, right? Like you can’t, um, there’s– It’s more like the norm is fairly boring sales pitches rather than informative discussion.
Speaker 6: We used to have OMNS, when I say we, I mean the wind community used to have OMNS out in San Diego in Coronado at the Del Coronado is, I think that’s the hotel name.
And the one time that I went, I think I’ve been [00:02:00] there, I would say one time, uh, everybody was outside on the, at the beach, basically on the patio. So they’re holding all these talks and discussions, and it’s… I’m looking around, it’s like me and five other people. Everybody else is out there next to the water.
So they had a problem with that. So I guess what they figured, either make it really cold or make it really hot, so it forces everybody into the climate-controlled conditions of, uh, the, uh, auditorium to watch the speakers. Maybe that’s the, the plan. All right. Let’s, let’s, let’s talk about what happened with NextEra and Dominion because there’s going to be a huge merger.
So if you thought utility business was boring, it’s not anymore. NextEra announced a sixty-seven billion dollar all-stock deal to acquire Dominion Energy, a move that would create the largest regulated electricity utility in the world by market cap. Uh, [00:03:00] the combined company would serve about ten million customers accounts across Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, where I’m based, and South Carolina with one hundred and ten gigawatts of generation across renewables, nuclear, and natural gas.
Uh, but the real driver here is data centers, of course. Dominion sits in the heart of Virginia’s data center alley, where it has connected more than four hundred and fifty data centers, and NextEra is building thirty data center hubs through its NextEra Energy Resources subsidiary and has partnered with Google Cloud on paired generation campuses.
So together, they would control about a hundred and thirty gigawatts of large load pipeline. And the question is whether the regulators will let it happen. And I think that’s, having watched some of the news articles over the last several days, uh, the news broke pretty much Sunday morning or late Saturday night that this was happening and [00:04:00] The first thing that came to mind, are the regulators going to let it happen?
And the concern is going to be, and you can well imagine how this plays out, they’re going to drag Dominion and NextEra up to Washington, D.C. and berate them about how electricity rates cannot increase due to data centers. And if they don’t swear to that, then this merger won’t happen. That’s my interpretation of what’s about to happen.
It may not, but how does this play out? How does everybody else on the team at Uptime see this play out?
Matthew Stead: Seems like a good idea to me. So more economies, more geographic diversity, more opportunity for renewables.
Yolanda Padron: I can’t speak to Dominion, um, but being relatively close to the NextEra engineering team, they, they really know their stuff, right?
So I think it’s something that should kind of give us a, a sense of relief here that it, [00:05:00] it’s a big team, but it’s a really smart and competent team taking over a big undertaking.
Speaker 6: You would like to see renewables and data centers work together. This would be the perfect match of the two, right? The, the largest renewable owner management company, along with the biggest data center, uh, region.
Connecting those two would make infinite sense, but in the, our political environment today in the United States, that may be the reason to oppose it.
Matthew Stead: Yeah, why would it be a bad idea?
Speaker 6: Windmills, Matthew. Windmills. Windmills are bad. Can’t even call them wind turbines anymore. They’re windmills.
Rosemary Barnes: I used to mock people for saying windmill instead of wind turbine, but then when I moved to Denmark, um, you know, who, you know, have a firm, firm ownership of modern wind energy, or at least did back 10, 20 years ago They say windmill when they speak English.
Um, the Danish word for it is vindmølle, um, which means windmill. [00:06:00]And so I can’t… I couldn’t maintain that, that energy because like, am I gonna, am I gonna mock these, you know, like everybody at that company knew more about wind energy than I did. Am I gonna mock them for not, not knowing the difference between a windmill and a wind turbine?
No. So yeah, that’s, that’s something that I, I don’t do anymore.
Matthew Stead: That is really valuable to know, um, Rosie. I must admit, I did not know that, and I would mock people saying w- windmill, so thank you for setting me straight.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, there are plenty of, um, plenty of people who don’t know the difference between a windmill and a wind turbine and think, “Oh, why you only got three blades with so much air between them?
You know, you’re gonna… Y- if you would just put twice as many blades, you’d get twice as many energy. Everybody who works in wind energy is just an obs- obvious complete and utter idiot.” Um, so there’s that kind of person, but then there’s also the industry. Another fun fact that they call the blades wings.
Uh, um, yeah, in Danish they call them blade wings, which they are. [00:07:00]
Speaker 6: In Spanish, isn’t it shovels? ‘Cause when I always translate those, uh, Spanish questions over to English, it always comes out shovel. At least early on, y- the early versions of Google Translate would translate it to shovel. Like, what are they talking about shovel on a wind turbine?
That doesn’t make any sense.
Yolanda Padron: Yeah, like a shovel or a stick or like a, what you row with.
Speaker 6: Oh, like an oar. Okay, that makes a lot more sense. Okay. Thank you, Yolanda.
Matthew Stead: I think it’s really interesting that, um- We don’t have much material on NextEra, Dominion. Um, yeah, we just don’t think it’s a good– We all think it’s a good idea.
There’s no controversy here.
Speaker 6: Oh, there’ll be controversy. Don’t worry about that. There’s always controversy. Welcome to America.
Matthew Stead: But among the four of us-
Speaker 6: We all think it’s great.
Rosemary Barnes: Well, it’s, um, I mean, some of the interesting facts that I read was that they’ve got 130 gigawatts of load, um, that they’re bringing to the table, and 51 gigawatts of that is contracted data centers.
So that’s, that’s interesting. [00:08:00] And I think large amounts of new data centers on the grid are controversial because in– if you’re not very, very careful about how you integrate them, then you can end up just making electricity more expensive for everybody in the area that doesn’t necessarily get, you know, profit sharing from the data center.
So, um, I think that, uh, like, you know, the wind ind- in the wind industry, we’ve obviously been through and are still in the phase of where social license, um, community acceptance is one of the most important things, maybe the most important thing when you’re developing a new project. And I think that we’re just at the start of that realization for data centers as well.
Companies that are building the, the data centers, they need to do more than what’s required of them because otherwise they have big risks of project delays. It’s millions of dollars delay, um, for the delay for, um, yeah, for every, every day that, um, a data center is held up. And so how can you afford to risk annoying anybody?
[00:09:00] You know, you just wanna be like the just, just perfect, um, addition to the community so that everybody is just happy and, and lets the project proceed. So, yeah, I thought– think that that’s, that’s quite an interesting aspect that I think I’m gonna s- we’re gonna see changing as, you know, all these planned data centers become real data centers.
There’s a real risk that everybody hates data centers soon as much as they, um, hated wind tur- um, wind farms for a while.
Yolanda Padron: For the consumer, aren’t there, like, I don’t know if they’re in Virginia, but aren’t there price caps too for the market? When you’re– When it comes to how expensive the megawatt hour is?
Speaker 6: Not necessarily. Re- remember that AEP in Ohio, uh, was requiring data centers to buy electricity at a certain amount. Because they both basically committed not to raise prices for electricity to the local communities, and that would be really hard to do. And okay, great, if, if they can pull it off, awesome.
But there’s already a lot of [00:10:00] pushback about it, and it hasn’t even gotten to the point of being real yet, so it’s only gonna get worse. I see. And all the data centers are gonna be up in space no matter what. Everybody’s talking about building data centers on the ground. There’s no shot that that’s gonna happen.
I’m just telling you, ’cause they can’t do it. They don’t– They can’t build gas turbines fast enough. There’s just limitations there, and transformers and everything else. It’s gonna be in space. It’s so much easier.
Yolanda Padron: And all the approvals you have to get and everything.
Speaker 6: It will be easier to do it in space In space, you don’t have neighbors.
Matthew Stead: I said it before, it’s just crazy. The key issue around data centers is it’s actually the transmission rather than generation. I mean, you know, at least in Australia, and correct me if I’m wrong, Rosie, but you know, less than half the price in Australia is generation. The other half is sort of retail and transmission and this and that.
And so actually, you know, the generation cost shouldn’t really increase. It’s really the transmission and the, the poles and the wires, which are the problem. And [00:11:00] you know, to your point, Rosie, social, social license for poles and wires.
Rosemary Barnes: I’m actually really surprised at Allen, ’cause normally, Allen and I have this, um, you know, we’ve played out this scenario probably 50 or 100 times over the, over the years with emerging technologies, and it’s always me that’s like, “You know what?
I think, uh, I think there’s something to this one.” Um, and Allen always poo-poos it, and in this case, Allen’s, Allen’s excited. I, I’m on Allen’s– So I also, I also think space data centers is, is a thing that’s more likely to happen than not, at least to some extent. Um, so yeah, but I think, Matt, you’ve got the more mainstream opinion.
Speaker 6: The voice of the common man. I
Yolanda Padron: think for all of our listeners out there, this is the first time Rosie and Allen agree on anything, so round of applause team.
Speaker 6: It won’t last long, Yolande.
Rosemary Barnes: It’s not true because, you know, nine out of 10 new technologies I also think are stupid. Um, so Allen and I agree on the bulk of them, but then of that one in 10, you know, nine out of 10 of those I, I [00:12:00] like and Allen doesn’t, so this is the, you know, the one-tenth of the one-tenth, so.
Speaker 6: I don’t like gas turbines. Can we all agree we don’t like gas turbines? It’s– That would be insane to scale.
Rosemary Barnes: You know what? I, I don’t have a particular problem with gas, gas turbines. I don’t want a lot of new gas turbines. Um, I guess that that’s– We can all agree on, on that. I don’t think the– I think we have most of the gas turbines that we need, or at least, um, will in the next couple of years.
And, um, yeah, I do think that their existence supports faster electrification, um, and faster growth of wind and solar. So I’m definitely not someone that wants to see all gas turbines turned off tomorrow.
Speaker 6: No, I don’t, I don’t want to turn them off. I’m
Matthew Stead: just saying you can’t get to scale.
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Speaker 6: millions.
Well, for the first time, five Chinese turbine manufacturers have all individually outpaced Danish wind giant Vestas in annual installations. Goldwind topped the global list with twenty-nine point seven gigawatts installed in twenty twenty-five. Behind them, Envision put up twenty-one point eight, Windy nineteen point eight, Mingyang at eighteen point six, and Sany at fifteen point one gigawatts.
Vestas came in [00:14:00] sixth at twelve point nine gigawatts. The Chinese dominance was fueled by an enormous domestic market that has accounted for about ninety-four percent of those five manufacturers’ sales. Uh, but exports are obviously growing out of China too. The five captured nearly sixty percent of the hundred and seventy-eight gigawatts installed globally in twenty twenty-five, a year that saw the world market grow forty percent over twenty twenty-four.
So Vestas still holds the crown for cumulative installations at two hundred and one gigawatts, but the gap in annual volume is now almost impossible to ignore. So Vestas has a lot of competition over in China. The, the amount of, uh, gigawatts coming out of the largest manufacturers in China is quite impressive, almost, well, more than double than what, uh, Vestas is doing, and Vestas is doing a pretty brisk business.
What are, what are the outcomes of this, everyone? Is, can this be sustained in China [00:15:00] for very much longer? Can they continue to, to create at, at that rate?
Rosemary Barnes: Yes. Okay, move, move on to the next segment
Speaker 6: Well, that’s a, that’s a huge amount of gigawatts coming out of China. And if 94% of it’s staying in China, eventually you run out of China to put wind turbines in.
Rosemary Barnes: They– I mean, we’re a long way from running out of places in China to put wind turbines in, because China is gigantic. A lot of it is not that populated. They’ve got a lot of offshore area still. But I just think it’s gonna follow the same playbook as, as solar probably, where you see, you know, early on heaps of domestic market, which is totally rock solid because it’s not relying on people to see a positive business case in doing it.
You know, like it’s really… You know, targets are, are really mandated and people make sure that they are met. Um, and then the incentives are also different as well. Like my understanding is that [00:16:00] there’s a lot of incentives about installation of megawatts, um, and then, you know, the, the operation is like, we’ll figure that out as we go.
The volume, the number of manufacturers that are there, they’ve got, you know, like such a great supply chain all there in the same area, so you can move fast and like I, I don’t see anything can get in the way of, you know, continuing to pump out these turbines at that speed. It’ll keep going until, you know, the government basically decides we’ve got, uh, enough wind energy now and then puts the, the brakes on it.
And, you know, that’s what we’ve just been through in solar recently. China is, um… You know, they’ve just– they’ve got a big economy and they’ve just got like rock solid resolve to follow through on, on things that they commit to. Um, whether we can, you know, argue about whether it’s a smart strategy or not, but you know that they will follow it, they will execute on, on it.
I don’t think anyone would, would say that they won’t. So I think, [00:17:00]can it continue forever? No. But do I think it can continue for another 10 years? Yes. And is that long enough to cause massive problems for any other manufacturer? I think also yes.
Matthew Stead: Hey, Rosie, can I ask you a question? You know, obviously there was some cable was proposed, you know, between Australia and Singapore.
Do you see China going in that direction? You know, putting rather than pipes with gas in it, um, pipes with electrons? Uh,
Rosemary Barnes: I don’t see China– I’m actually working on a video at the moment about a global sub-sea grid, and I just interviewed, um, uh, Xlinks, you know, that was originally a project from Morocco to the UK, and then the other one, which is super cool, um, we might have an argument about the plausibility of it, is NATO L, which is just in like early development stages.
It’s going to connect the UK to Canada. Um, and yeah, so that’s, um, a few thousand kilometers long. The ocean depth is maximum [00:18:00] three, I think, kilometers, maybe even a tiny bit more than that, um, which is like right on the edge of what is possible. N-none of those projects really actually rely on big technological improvements.
Um, they’re possible with today’s technologies. Um, but I don’t see China doing so much of that. I think that one thing that might actually stop that is that, um, when you have big interconnectors like that, I think the engineering part is not the hard, the hard part. I think that the, it’s the politics. I do see them exporting their, um, you know, they’ve got really good ultra high voltage DC technology, but the transmission lines, they have exported a little bit.
There’s some projects in Brazil that are Chinese made. There’s one in India. I don’t actually know if that is Chinese made, but you know, like I could really imagine them also rolling out projects in Africa, for example. Um, but beyond that sort of thing, I, I wouldn’t tip China as the country to, you know, develop a global [00:19:00] sub-sea grid.
Speaker 6: Do you think the low solar prices have hurt the wind manufacturers in China a little bit? Obviously, there’s a lot of solar panels that are able to be shipped immediately, which is what’s happening right now. But turbines, not so much. It’s a little harder to do. But you, you would think that a lot of these countries and communities would be putting in wind But solar is so cheap right now that, that is what is winning at the moment, and it must be hurting the Chinese wind manufacturers, you would think.
Rosemary Barnes: I don’t think they’re really in a competition with each other, um, at the moment. In Australia, I think yes. I think that, um, the, like, roaring success of solar and especially batteries is, um, making wind less appealing to develop. But globally, I think that it’s, you know, it’s a race between, um, fossil fuels and renewables.
It’s a race between energy security and continued reliance on, you know, countries that [00:20:00] you don’t really want to rely on for fossil fuels. I think that those are the, the much bigger, um, competition at the moment. It’s a bit short-sighted because, yeah, wind and solar is really easy for the, the part of the, uh, energy transition that we’re doing now, and, uh, if you just don’t build any wind until you reach the limit of solar and batteries, then you’ll find yourself quite far behind.
So that’s what we’re really struggling with in Australia and finding, like, what is the right level of government, um, support because people… You know, like in an electricity market like Australia, you’re not supposed to rely on governments, you know, planning out the system and deciding what thing to build, and I think that that has been a real strength of the Australian market that it has, you know, the government has got out of the way.
It is hard to see, um, us getting to where we need to go in a orderly fashion without some planning for this, like, lumpy middle part of the energy transition. I don’t know. What do you think, Matt? Is that how you see it in Australia as well?
Matthew Stead: Yeah, I think there’s a place [00:21:00] for everything, and, you know, wind, solar, battery is a perfect match and the right places for the right thing.
Rosemary Barnes: It’s really hard because, you know, like, when you look at the system as a whole, you know, like you plan out what, what full energy system is cheaper and better, you know. Is it the, you know, the current fossil fuel system and all of the, you know, annual maintenance and, um, improvements like, um, extensions that need to go along with that to support, you know, things like data centers and population growth, or is it the fully renewable system?
And, you know, if you look at the end state, then I don’t think that many studies or maybe any studies come to the conclusion that anything other than renewables is the, the cheaper, better system. But it’s just, it doesn’t mean that every step along the way is cheaper, and so you end up with this, yeah, like this hump in the middle that you’ve gotta, you’ve gotta get over if you wanna get from one to the other, and it’s, um, it’s complicated.
Speaker 6: I just listened to a podcast about this half an hour ago, uh, and it [00:22:00] was very contentious. And I won’t get into the details of it, but it was just one or the other. We wanna have all petroleum-based, coal-based generation in the UK, or we want zero emissions. They never got into anywhere in the middle, which is where it’s going to have to be.
So why don’t we talk about that? I– It doesn’t… The political atmosphere of the UK is, is a little unstable, as we’ve all read in the newspapers and seen online. Uh, but it, but it’s just causing the both sides to go to extremes. And on the renewable side, some of the arguments that are being made were so outlandish that I could hardly continue to listen to it.
Same thing on the gas and coal side. Like, what are we gonna do? The UK is really in a pinch. They’re gonna have to do something, and it all– as Rosemary’s pointed out, doing nothing is real ex- it’s gonna be tremendously expensive too. So there’s, there’s gonna have to be a, a reckoning somehow, but it, it’s all tied to the [00:23:00] economy at the moment.
Like most things that happen in a country, decisions are made about what’s happening right now, not what’s gonna happen five years from now.
Yolanda Padron: Right. And to your point, like countries need to protect themselves, right? Like what are you gonna do, bank on world peace?
Speaker 6: That’s a bad bet historically.
Matthew Stead: But, um, how many, how many of those charts have you seen in the last one to years where you’ve got the, the fossil fuel, say the coal generation versus renewable generation?
How many of those, um, charts have crossed over in the last few years where, you know, renewables generation is, is higher than coal generation? It’s just, it’s happening all over the world. It’s just happening, and you look at the graphs, it’s just happening.
Speaker 6: It’s less expensive, so that’s why they’re doing it.
The decision’s made with the dollar. You know, the financing and the bankers and insurance are all gonna drive that, and it’s not gonna be the decision you, the homeowner, are gonna have a lot of influence on. It’s all gonna be done at a higher level, and it’s gonna be whatever’s cheaper and whatever’s available.
Back to Rosemary’s point, [00:24:00] solar is cheap and available, people are gonna do it. Wind is cheap and available, they’re gonna choose it no matter who’s in office, right? I… Yeah, that’s the engineer talking, not the politician.
Matthew Stead: Battery, wind, and solar is only gonna get cheaper. Is, um, is, uh, gas turbines and coal gonna get cheaper?
Speaker 6: They can’t. In order to get the efficiency up where they need to, it’s gonna be super expensive, which is what we’re at today. That’s why gas turbines are s- you can’t mass produce them, and that’s why they cost so much money. It’s a great business if you sell a couple a year. You can’t sell thousands of them.
There’s just not a way to do that. As wind energy professionals, staying informed is crucial, and let’s face it, difficult. That’s why the Uptime podcast recommends PES Wind magazine. PES Wind offers a diverse range of in-depth articles and expert insights that dive into the most pressing issues facing our energy future.
Whether you’re an industry veteran or new to wind, PES Wind has the high-quality content you need. Don’t miss [00:25:00] out. Visit peswind.com today. Over in Sweden, they built all the wind farms, and here at Weather Guard we’ve talked to a number of operators over in Sweden, so has EOLOGIX-PING, uh, and the– So but the wind farms and the customers haven’t really showed up, and researchers in Sweden have analyzed two hundred and forty-four Swedish wind power producers owning more than about thirty-seven hundred turbines covering eighty-five percent of the country’s total wind generation.
So it’s a pretty large study. They found that eighty percent were effectively operating at a loss in twenty twenty-four. The total sector losses reached six point three billion Swedish kronor, uh, about six hundred and twenty million euros. The sector’s profit margins fell to a negative fifty-one percent.
That’s right, negative fifty-one percent. Uh, and here’s the real paradox. Although wind production actually [00:26:00] rose from thirty-four point two to forty point six terawatt-hours, revenues fell for the first time in at least six years. Uh, the more they produced, the less they earned. And the real culprit is overcapacity.
So they have so many turbines up in northern Sweden, uh, that it’s driving the energy prices down, much like Australia. Uh, and the missing link is obviously transmission because it is big demand to the south. It’s just getting the power there. Vattenfall alone lost eight hundred and seventy million euros in its wind business in twenty twenty-four, and one of its subsidiaries curtailed seventeen percent of the potential production because of, uh, shutting the turbines down was less expensive than selling into negative prices, which would make sense.
So the price has gotten so low in Sweden that it’s better just to turn the turbine off and, and eat the loss than to generate power at a, at a negative price. This is a common theme [00:27:00] as wind has grown, and solar for the same matter, is that when you have so much of it, the price of electricity will drop.
And until you can get that power out to other areas that has high demand It becomes a losing proposition. How does this play out? Will the– Now will countries finally take transmission seriously and start to even out the grid? Is that where we’re going?
Yolanda Padron: I mean, I hope so. The idea of curtailing potential energy isn’t something new, right?
It happens here in Texas all the time. It happens in a lot of places all the time, um, just to, to not overflow the grid. And it makes sense, but it doesn’t make sense too much, at least to me, that in the same country you have parts of it where you have an electricity surplus and negative pricing, and other parts of it where you just, you don’t have enough energy for the whole, uh, region, right?
So, uh, I really hope they take it a bit more seriously than they, than they currently are.
Matthew Stead: Uh, I think the interesting thing about Sweden is [00:28:00]that they’ve got a lot of hydro as well, and so those two things tie together. Um, you know, much like Australia, we’re building the, like the largest in the Southern Hemisphere, um, hydro scheme, and, um, maybe that’s part of the missing puzzle is the actual, the storage element.
So if they had more pumped hydro, you know, they could, um, perhaps store that excess energy and then, then reuse it. But, you know, unless there’s no pipes from the north to the south, you know, that’s not gonna help anyone.
Speaker 6: Hydro is expensive. The more recent news articles I’ve seen about pumped hydro is it’s way less expensive to put in wind or put in solar or put in some batteries than to do pumped hydro projects.
It’s complicated. It’s a lot of construction, obviously, and, uh, the pumps and the equipment are not cheap. So, uh, yeah, so although if you do have hydro and it’s currently running, you would leave that alone, but I think some of the newer pumped hydro projects probably won’t happen. Even if they’re on the– have [00:29:00] been planned and, and even started, I think they’re really reevaluating that it’s probably cheaper to do batteries.
Matthew Stead: In Australia, in Snowy 2.0, I think the original budget was, was it 3 billion? And now it’s up to 12 to 15 billion.
Rosemary Barnes: Anybody that was working on that would’ve known that the price was very likely to blow out because that particular project has a really long tunnel. The two reservoirs that, like the reservoirs were existing, so you think, okay, that’s good, you save money.
But the expensive part of pumped hydro is the tunneling and then, and it’s a very long tunnel. Um, and it’s just so super predictable that when you have a super long tunnel, you one, increase the cost a lot, but two, increase the risk of a massive cost blowout. So I think it’s not a good predictor of, of projects as some other ones that are, that are happening.
I think the biggest problem with hydro is that, um, the project lives are so long, like 100 years e- easily, [00:30:00] but that doesn’t mean anything in today’s dollars, y- you know? So it’s like no one can, no company is gonna assign any value to the electricity they’re gonna generate in 100 years time, you know? So it’s, um, it, it’s really hard for it to stack up to, as a project today unless it’s a government doing it.
Matthew Stead: But I mean, once Snowy 2.0 is done, it will still be reasonably cost-effective as a long-term storage source.
Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. If it had been made on time, then I think it would’ve, it would’ve been a real enabler for the energy transition for getting heaps of wind and solar. But it wasn’t done on time, and we barely we- storage isn’t our problem right now.
We have actually got lots of, of storage. That’s not what’s stopping people from building projects. So, um, I think it is a bit of a shame.
Speaker 6: Back to your point, Rosemary, how old hydro is in terms of electricity generation. I, I went to go look up when Niagara River, Niagara Falls in, in the States first [00:31:00] started producing power, 1895.
That’s how long we’ve been using water power in the States to create electricity. Hoover Dam, which also does something very similar, is in the 1930s, 1935, ’36, around that timeframe. So it’s almost been 100 years there too, 90 years. Yeah. It’s, it’s amazing. So you don’t plan for those, those pieces of, uh, infrastructure to run that long, but they do.
That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. And if today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Reach out to us on LinkedIn, and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. And if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review.
It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show. For Rosie, Yolanda, and Matthew, I’m Allen Hall, and we’ll see you here next week on the Uptime Wind Energy [00:32:00] podcast.
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