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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Deadly extremes

FLOODING: Up to 700 people are believed to have been killed by flash floods in Nigeria, reported BBC News. Northern Nigeria has faced “prolonged dry spells worsened by climate change”, followed by “excessive rainfall”, which can cause flash flooding, reported the Associated Press.

FIRES: In Canada, continuing wildfires forced the evacuation of more than 26,000 people, “with heavy smoke choking millions of Canadians and Americans and reaching as far away as Europe”, reported Le Monde. CBC News reported that authorities in the Canadian state of Saskatchewan have been “battling the worst wildfire [the state has] seen in decades”. Scientist Prof Colin Laroque told the broadcaster: “This is classic climate change…This is our new normal.”

DEVASTATION: In northeastern India, at least 48 people have been killed in flash floods, Al Jazeera reported. Meanwhile, in China’s southwestern Yunnan province, heavy rainfall over the weekend triggered “flash floods and mudslides”, damaging roads and disrupting power supplies to around 5,000 people, reported Reuters

Trumping at the bit

DRILL, BABY, DRILL: The Trump administration in the US announced plans to eliminate Biden-era protections across millions of acres of the Alaskan Arctic, opening the area up for drilling and mining “in some of the last remaining pristine wilderness in the country”, the New York Times reported. According to US energy secretary, Chris Wright, Trump wants to “double the amount of oil coursing through Alaska’s vast pipeline system” and build a “massive natural gas project as its ‘big beautiful twin’”, reported the Associated Press.

‘GOLD STANDARD’: Elsewhere, more than 6,000 scientists and academics signed an open letter opposing a new push by Trump to impose what he called a restoration of “gold standard science” across federal agencies and national laboratories, reported the the New York Times. It explained: “The executive order puts his political appointees in charge of vetting scientific research and gives them the authority to ‘correct scientific information’, control the way it is communicated to the public and the power to ‘discipline’ anyone who violates the way the administration views science.” Meanwhile, CNN reported that “NASA scientists describe ‘absolute sh*tshow’ at agency as Trump budget seeks to dismantle top US climate lab”.

Around the world

  • BIG TECH: Meta signed a 20-year deal with an Illinois nuclear plant for energy to power its AI and data centres, reported the Financial Times
  • BIG SOLAR: Builders will be required to fit solar panels to the “vast majority” of new-build homes in England under changes to be published this year, according to energy secretary Ed Miliband, said BBC News.
  • BIG TARGET: The EU’s climate science adviser warned the bloc against watering down climate targets, a day after it was reported that EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra “successfully lobbied Germany’s coalition government to endorse a controversial measure that weakens the EU’s next climate target”, said Politico.
  • BIG PROBELÉM: Civil society groups raised the alarm on how the “exorbitant price of accommodation” and “high cost of flights” will undermine Brazil’s civil society participation at COP30 in Belém, reported Dialogue Earth.

$2.2 trillion

How much global investment in clean-energy technologies, including renewables, nuclear and energy storage, is expected in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency. This is “twice the amount expected for fossil fuels”, reported Reuters


Latest climate research

  • A study in Communications Earth & Environment warned that the world has “likely” already reached a tipping point in the West Antarctic ice sheet and that its collapse would result in four metres of sea level rise over a timescale that “could be millennia”. 
  • Nature Communications published research which found that poor air quality in Europe could lead to 282,000 premature deaths a year by 2100 under a low-ambition climate scenario – but drop to 67,000 if ambitious action is taken to cut emissions. 
  • Climate change-driven atmospheric evaporative demand – sometimes known as “atmospheric thirst” – caused around 40% of increased drought severity globally from 1981-2022, according to new research in Nature.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

The UK’s sunniest spring generated a record amount of solar power, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. The data revealed that the nation’s solar sites generated a record 7.6 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity from January to May 2025. This is 42% higher than the 5.4TWh generated in the same period last year, as well as marking a much larger 160% increase over the past decade, the analysis said. It added: “The solar electricity generated in 2025 to date has avoided the need to import gas costing around £600m, which would have released 6m tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) when burned.” The Times and BBC News covered the analysis.

Spotlight

Lessons from 20 years of Japanese ‘Cool Biz’

This week, Carbon Brief examines a “casual dress” policy that has been “surprisingly effective” at driving emissions savings in Japan.

For many people, the thought of Japan conjures up images of thronging cities, bright lights and smartly dressed “salary-men” unwinding in an “izakaya” (Japanese pub) after a gruelling day at the office.

Every morning, in cities around Japan, some 38 million office workers put on a uniform of suits and ties and make their way to work.

Come summer, however, and the morning commute adopts a laid-back Friday feel. Men’s suit jackets and neckties are replaced by open collars and short sleeves. Venture to the southern island of Okinawa and you might spot a salary-man in a Hawaiian-style “kariyushi” shirt.

This was not always the case. Twenty years ago this month, then-environment minister Yuriko Koike introduced Japan – and the world – to the term “Cool Biz”.

“Cool Biz” – literally Cool Business – is an enduring campaign aimed at reducing energy consumption from air conditioning in the hot summer months when temperatures routinely exceed 30C.

‘No necktie’

Introduced in 2005, the same year the Kyoto protocol finally “entered into force”, Cool Biz mandated that government office buildings turn down the air conditioning to 28C and encourage employees to cool off by wearing less formal clothing. The campaign was characterised by the pithy slogan: “No jacket, no necktie.”

The impact was near immediate. By official estimates, nearly half a million tonnes of CO2 were saved in the first year of Cool Biz. The following year the savings tripled.
In 2012, the policy was estimated to have saved Japan 2.2 MtCO2 of emissions. (This is equivalent to the emissions of Montenegro that year.)

Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida (centre) and other ministers in 2023 wearing "kariyushi" summer shirts to promote the annual "Cool Biz" light clothing campaign.
Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida (centre) and other ministers in 2023 wearing “kariyushi” summer shirts to promote the annual “Cool Biz” light clothing campaign. Credit: Newscom / Alamy Stock Photo

While temperature regulations were only mandated in government buildings, the impacts of the campaign extended far wider.

Thanks to a widespread publicity campaign – which included a Cool Biz fashion show of Japanese public figures and business leaders – name recognition reached 96% in its first year, according to a survey by the Ministry of Environment.

Uniqlo, Japan’s largest clothes retailer, recorded a 14% sales bump – which it attributed to its range of Cool Biz-appropriate casual workwear. And the Federation of Japanese Necktie Unions petitioned the government, after it forecast a 30% sales slump worth approximately £1bn.

‘Accidental steering’

Twenty years on, working in relaxed attire in summer has become “firmly established in Japanese society”, Atsushi Watabe, programme director of sustainable consumption and production at Japan’s Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, told Carbon Brief.

But research into its popularity revealed that concerns about climate change are unlikely to have played a major role in the uptake.

Surveys with members of the public found that Cool Biz had little or no impact on peoples’ reported environmental awareness or commitment, according to Prof Elizabeth Shove, an emeritus professor of sociology at Lancaster University,

Cool Biz’s actual success was a case of “accidental steering” through a combination of social, material and historical factors, said Shove.

Government officials led by example, she said. Japan’s then prime minister Junchiro Koizumi insisted that Cool Biz be worn for cabinet meetings and appeared in interviews in open-collar shirts.

“If the ministers are wearing a tie, their subordinates would feel uneasy about not wearing it,” prime minister Koizumi said at the time. “So the ministers should not wear a tie.”

Turning down the air conditioning in government buildings, likewise, set a standard for other businesses to follow.

Timing also played a role, according to Watabe. Women working in Japanese offices were some of the earliest to support Cool Biz, having been subjected to cooling conventions adapted for male workers, he said, adding:

“Gradually, men who had always considered wearing suits outside as the norm also accepted the change and began to feel its benefits.”

A key lesson is that the success of Cool Biz came from shifting societal norms rather than targeting the behaviour of individuals, said Shove:

“Norms and values don’t just exist – they come from histories of standards, regulations and building research… [Cool Biz] was surprisingly effective by not changing individual behavior, but by just setting a new standard in the government’s own buildings and in industry.”

Watch, read, listen

DRILLED: A new podcast series explored how ”Greenpeace, which was only tangentially involved in the Standing Rock [oil pipeline] protests, has been slapped with a $666m bill for damages”.

REPUBLICANS ‘SCARED’: The Guardian interviewed former Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders on a wide range of issues, including his thoughts on why some Republicans are “scared” to speak about the reality of climate change.
SELLING NEGATIVE EMISSIONS: A feature in the Financial Times examined the “battle to create a carbon trading market for negative emissions” in the UK.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 6 June 2025: Nigeria’s deadly flash floods; UK’s record spring drives solar surge; Lessons from Japan’s ‘Cool Biz’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 6 June 2025: Nigeria’s deadly flash floods; UK’s record spring drives solar surge; Lessons from Japan’s ‘Cool Biz’

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Cuts to Renewable Energy Research in Energy Department’s Budget Irk Senate Democrats

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Although the department’s overall budget will increase in 2027, the amounts dedicated to environmental management, research and renewable energy infrastructure face significant hits.

Democrats on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee have challenged the Department of Energy’s proposal that would divert funds from solar and wind while keeping fossil fuel plants online past their retirement dates.

Cuts to Renewable Energy Research in Energy Department’s Budget Irk Senate Democrats

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Climate Change

Cropped 22 April 2026: Global food ‘catastrophe’ | BECCS emissions | UK solar farm controversy

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We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Food ‘catastrophe’

FAO WARNING: On Monday, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that a prolonged closure of the strait of Hormuz could lead to a “global food catastrophe”, reported Al Jazeera. With 20-45% of the world’s key agrifood inputs dependent on the sea passage, the outlet explained, poorer countries would be the “most exposed”, with delays in accessing fertilisers “quickly translating into lower output”. A Financial Times essay detailed how the Gulf region has come to “sit at the centre of modern agriculture” over the past two decades”.

Subscribe: Cropped
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‘PERFECT STORM’: The FAO also warned countries to “not limit shipments” of energy and fertilisers, warning that such restrictions have led to food price spikes in the past, wrote Bloomberg. The UN body asked countries to “closely ponder” biofuel mandates, given the choice between high oil prices and curtailing global food supplies. In a statement, FAO chief economist Dr Maximo Torero warned of a “perfect storm”, if the world is also affected by a strong El Niño.

COUNTRIES RESPOND: Sri Lanka, already “burdened with old fertiliser debts”, has promised to provide fertiliser subsidies to farmers, reported Sri Lanka’s Sunday Times. In India, “fear of a fertiliser shortage is particularly heightened”, wrote Scroll.in. In Australia – where 60% of urea comes from the Persian Gulf – the war could herald a fertiliser “manufacturing comeback”, reported ABC News. Reuters looked at how China is “clamping down on fertiliser exports to protect its domestic market”.

Study: Wood vs gas burning

BASHING BECCS: A new study found that “bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is unlikely to generate negative emissions within 150 years”. The paper added that BECCS is likely to “produce higher emissions for decades than using natural gas without carbon capture” and to “increase electricity costs by ~3.5-fold”. The Guardian covered the research, stating that its findings “cast doubt” on government plans to offer subsidies for carbon capture attached to wood-burning power, such as the UK’s Drax power station.

INTERPRET WITH CAUTION: Prof Joana Portugal Pereira, an assistant professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, told Carbon Brief that the study is “clearly framed and the modelling approach is transparent”. However, she said the results are “very sensitive to the assumptions made” and advised “caution” in drawing conclusions from the analysis. For example, she noted that the study “focuses on BECCS supplied from existing forests”, which is likely to “emphasise higher emissions outcomes”.

MISLEADING HEADLINE: Dr Isabela Butnar, a lecturer in environmental policy at University College London, praised parts of the methodology and agreed that “forest-based BECCS for electricity is a no-go”. However, she argued that the title of the paper – “Decades of increased emissions from forest-fuelled BECCS” – might be “a bit misleading”. The title should specify that the analysis only applies to BECCS for electricity production, she said.

News and views

  • TOO HOT TO FARM: A major new joint report by the FAO and the World Meteorological Organization estimated that extreme heat “currently threatens” the livelihoods of more than 1 billion people, with agricultural workers on the “frontlines…absorbing the greatest impacts”. Farmers in much of south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and central and South America could find it “simply too hot to work” for up to 250 days a year, the report cautioned.
  • PALM READING: Demand for palm oil has “surged as the war in Iran drives countries to build up stockpiles” and “boost” biofuel programmes in response to higher crude oil prices, reported Nikkei Asia. While Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil exports have risen to their “highest level in months”, longer-term supply could be “threatened” by rising fertiliser prices and “high temperatures caused by climate change”, added the outlet.
  • RED LIST: Emperor penguins and the Antarctic fur seal “have joined the list of wildlife endangered by global warming”, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List, reported the New York Times. Conversely, “iconic” blue-and-yellow macaws have returned to Rio de Janeiro after a 200-year absence, following an ambitious “refaunation” programme, wrote the Guardian.
  • CATTLE CLASS: A new Unearthed investigation found that a major US biofuels producer supplied the UK with “sustainable aviation fuel” derived from “beef fat linked to illegal Amazon deforestation”. Darling Ingredients – the producer’s parent company – denied sourcing tallow from slaughterhouses sourcing cattle from illegal farms in the Amazon. It told the outlet it was “in the process” of requiring suppliers to prove their products were “deforestation-free”.
  • FUND OPEN: On 10 April, Ecuador issued its “first call” for grants to protect 1.8m hectares of the Ecuadorian Amazon using the $460m Amazon Biocorridor Fund, reported EFE Verde. The trust fund is linked to what is considered the “largest debt-for-land nature swap”, added the outlet. [For more on debt-for-nature swaps, see Carbon Brief’s 2024 explainer.]
  • SUPER EL NIÑO: Scientists expect a strong El Niño event to develop by early autumn, driving up global temperatures, according to Carbon Brief’s latest state of the climate update. The analysis said that if a super El Niño develops this year, it is likely that 2027 will top the charts as the hottest year on record. It added that “the latest climate models give a central estimate of 2.2C warming by September – a scenario which would put the world firmly in ‘super’ El Niño territory”.

Spotlight

Oxford solar farm under fire

This week, Carbon Brief unpacks what the UK’s Botley West solar farm development would mean for farmland and biodiversity in the area.

Planning permission for one of Europe’s largest solar farms has been delayed, after the UK government asked for more time to consider the proposal from the developer.

Oxfordshire’s Botley West solar farm has been under consultation since 2022.

If approved, the site – located 80km north-west of London – will deliver 840m watts (MW) to the UK power grid.

However, the development faces vehement opposition – most notably from the Stop Botley West campaign group, which has said the “vast” solar farm will have “unprecedented” visual impact, drive the loss of “arable farmland” and will “disregard Oxford’s green belt”.

Politicians frequently use solar farms to score points with their supporters, with some MPs describing the developments as hazards for rural communities and food supply.

Farmland loss

Most of the land earmarked for the solar farm belongs to the Blenheim estate – a 12,000-acre expanse surrounding the UNESCO world heritage site of Blenheim Palace.

Dr Jonathan Scurlock – the former chief climate adviser at the National Farmers’ Union, which represents farmers in England and Wales – told Carbon Brief that the estate rents out much of its land to tenant farmers. However, he added, it is “not terribly good quality farmland”.

The UK government has a ranking system for agricultural land that is being considered for large-scale development projects, where five indicates “very poor quality” and one indicates “excellent quality”. Developers are generally encouraged to build on lower-quality land, leaving the high-quality land for farming.

According to the Botley West website, 62% of the land surveyed for the proposed solar farm is agricultural grade 3b – defined as “moderate-quality agricultural land”. The remainder is mostly 3a, defined as “good-quality agricultural land”.

Many opponents of Botley West argue that the farm will take away vital farmland. However, Scurlock said:

“Solar is perceived as very challenging to land use and yet the evidence nationally really doesn’t support that…Solar farms do not really represent lots of agricultural land capacity”.

(A 2025 Carbon Brief factcheck found that golf courses currently take up six times as much land in the UK as solar farms.)

The developers plan for the solar panels to remain on-site for about 40 years, after which the fields will be returned to use for agriculture.

Biodiversity gain

The proposed solar farm has also promised to improve local biodiversity.

New development projects in the UK must deliver a “biodiversity net gain” (BNG) under a 2024 regulation.

Developers must arrange for the “biodiversity value” of the land to be assessed, considering factors including the size, quality, location and type of each habitat. They must then ensure that the final project increases this value by at least 10%.

If the Botley West project is approved, the developers will aim for 70% BNG.

Prof Alona Armstrong, an energy researcher from Lancaster University, told Carbon Brief that around two-thirds of solar farms in the UK are built on “ex-arable lands”.

She explained that biodiversity outcomes on solar farms depend on where the farms are located and how they are designed and managed. Much agricultural land is “intensively managed”, with the use of chemicals and farming machinery. In contrast, there is less chemical and machinery use on solar farms, potentially benefiting biodiversity.

Armstrong added that solar farms are often lined with hedges, which are “really good for biodiversity”, acting as refuges for a wide range of plant and animal species.

The latest BNG statement for Botley West filed with the government featured a “habitat and hedgerows creation and enhancement plan”.

The plan included creating 26.5km of new species-rich hedgerow, enhancing 25km of existing hedgerows and developing a range of grassland types within the solar arrays to be managed for conservation.

Watch, read, listen

EARTH ANGELS: From protecting Nigeria’s rare bats to pushing higher climate targets in South Korea, Mongabay profiled the six women who won this year’s Goldman Prize.

CHERRY (BLOSSOM) PICKING: The Guardian reported on the hunt to find a researcher to continue Japan’s 1,200-year record of cherry-blossom blooming dates.

‘SOYA REPUBLICS’: A Phenomenal World essay argued that global grain traders in South America’s soya supply chains “sowed the seeds of anti-democratic politics”.
ZACH IS BACK: Actor-comedian Zach Galifianakis debuted a new Netflix series, called “This is a gardening show”, meant to be an “oddball celebration of the food we eat”.

New science

  • Preventing the loss of intact biomes, ecosystems and species is the “most critical strategy” to achieve the “nature positive” future outlined in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework | Frontiers in Science
  • Climate change will lead to “increased pest damage” in North American forests, as “temperature-boosted pest performance” and “climate-induced stress”, such as drought, make trees more susceptible to pests | Nature Ecology and Evolution
  • There are 160m “small wetlands” in “non-forested” parts of the world, which together contribute to 24% of total wetland methane emissions | Nature Climate Change

In the diary

  • 22-24 April: Eighth meeting of the board for the loss and damage fund | Livingstone, Zambia
  • 24 April: Launch of the 2026 global report on food crises | London
  • 24-29 April: First conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels | Santa Marta, Colombia
  • 5-7 May: Workshop on invasive alien species for Spanish-speaking countries in Latin America and the Caribbean | Panama City

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyerand Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org

The post Cropped 22 April 2026: Global food ‘catastrophe’ | BECCS emissions | UK solar farm controversy appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Cropped 22 April 2026: Global food ‘catastrophe’ | BECCS emissions | UK solar farm controversy

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Prospects for global green shipping deal boosted by US tariff ruling, analysts say

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A recent US court ruling restricting President Trump’s ability to impose sweeping tariffs has improved the chances of an international deal to cut emissions from shipping, observers of UN maritime talks have said.

Government officials meeting at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London this week and next are resuming negotiations on a proposed set of measures known as the Net-Zero Framework (NZF), aimed at tackling the sector’s roughly 3% share of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Last October, Trump and his officials threatened any government voting to adopt provisionally agreed green shipping measures, known as the Net-Zero Framework (NZF), with tariffs that would make it harder for their businesses to export to the USA.

The intervention helped derail talks, with governments narrowly voting to postpone for a year the adoption of the NZF.

The framework, provisionally agreed in April 2025 after years of negotiations, would penalise the owners of particularly polluting ships and use the revenues to fund cleaner fuels, support affected workers and help developing countries manage the transition.

The delay plunged the future of the NZF into doubt. Vanuatu’s climate minister said the delay was “unacceptable” given the urgency of tackling climate change. A final decision on the NZF is not expected until November.

    Tariff threat neutered

    Since the last round of negotiations, the political landscape has shifted. In February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump had no legal authority to impose sweeping tariffs without approval from Congress.

    Rockford Weitz, professor of maritime studies at Tufts University, said that his officials would have “a more challenging time” using tariffs as threats at this month’s shipping talks than they did in October.

    University College London professor Tristan Smith, a close observer of IMO talks, agreed that the tariff threat is “not quite as potent as it was last year”. He noted that the US also no longer benefits from the element of surprise. In October, Washington began lobbying governments only shortly before the talks, leaving little time for countries supporting the NZF to coordinate a response.

    This time, Smith said supporters of the framework – which include most European countries, Pacific Islands and some African and Latin American states – are “working very closely together” to resist the US’s pressure.

    He added that the US’s attempt to promote liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a transition shipping fuel, rather than renewable-electricity-based solutions like ammonia or methanol, by weakening the NZF has been undermined by the spike in the cost of gas triggered by the Iran war.

    Attempts to re-negotiate

    But divisions remain in the talks scheduled to run until Friday next week. Ahead of this round of negotiations, some governments have proposed re-negotiating the core tenets of the NZF, while others insist it should be adopted in November largely as provisionally agreed in April 2025.

    This debate played out last week on a webinar hosted by the African Futures Policies Hub. Liberian diplomat Grace Nuhn said the emissions-reduction requirements included in the NZF are “over-zealous” and “over-ambitious” and do not reflect the limited availability of clean fuels, while penalising “transitional fuels” such as LNG and biofuels.

    In a formal submission, Liberia – alongside US ally Argentina and Panama – has proposed weakening emission targets and ditching any funding mechanism for the framework involving “direct revenue collection and disbursement”.

    Liberia and Panama host the world’s two biggest ship registries, meaning their governments earn revenue from allowing shipowners from around the world to register vessels in their countries.

    The NZF would penalise owners of ships that emit more than certain agreed amounts and use that revenue to clean up the maritime sector, help workers through the green transition and compensate for any negative impacts of the transition on developing economies.

    Shipping’s climate deal sets up battle over pollution calculations for gas and biofuels

    Japan has also proposed that, in order to reach a compromise with the NZF’s opponents, emissions reduction targets and requirements to pay into the IMO’s Net-Zero Fund are weakened.

    Yuki Inoue, a diplomat from Japan’s transport ministry, told the webinar that this would reduce the perception that the NZF is a “carbon tax”. Japan wants to get all governments “back to the discussion table”, he said.

    NZF a “fragile compromise”

    But Tuvalu’s IMO negotiator Pierre-Jean Bordahandy said that the NZF itself is a “fragile compromise” reached after lengthy discussions and is the “only viable path forward” to meet the sector’s climate targets agreed in 2023.

    Tuvalu and six other Pacific nations have vowed to try to make the NZF more ambitious if it is reopened for negotiation. With rising sea levels threatening their survival, “time is not on our side”, Bordahandy told the webinar.

    Brazil has also pushed back against attempts to renegotiate. Diplomat Adriana de Medeiros Gabinio warned that it would be unrealistic to expect countries to rewrite a deal in a matter of months after more than two years of negotiations involving over 100 nations culminated in the April 2025 vote in favour of the NZF.

    She added that proposed changes to the NZF would not address climate change and food insecurity and “seem aimed at addressing diplomatic pressure imposed by a small group of countries rather than the issue itself”.

    The IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez speaks to US, Saudi, Brazilian, European and other delegates at talks on 17 October 2025 (Photo: Joe Lo)

    Mexico has defended the framework’s funding mechanism. Raul Zepeda Gil, an advisor to the country’s IMO mission, said the net-zero fund is essential to ensure developing countries can access financing for cleaner ships and infrastructure. Without the fund, “then just a few countries will be available to participate in the transition”, he warned

    Some countries that previously supported delaying the NZF now appear more aligned with its backers. Kenya was among 16 African nations that voted for postponement last October.

    But this month Michael Mbaru, maritime lead for the Kenyan government’s climate envoy office, told journalists that Kenya supports the NZF and hinted that other African and developing countries would follow.

    “From the Global South perspective, as you’ve seen from the submissions from Africa, we are moving forward in terms of the framework as is”, he said, adding “we feel like we have compromised enough and we feel like the framework provides the best package.”

    “If we are to reopen these discussions, we need to reopen them to strengthen the revenue, not to weaken the revenue”, he said.

    Tacit or explicit approval?

    Brazil’s Adriana de Medeiros Gabinio warned that even if the NZF is officially adopted in November, its opponents are trying to change the rules by which it comes into force as a “safety net to block” it.

    The US and its allies want to shift away from a system of tacit approval where, after the NZF is approved at the IMO talks, its rules are automatically applied unless a certain number of countries object.

    They prefer explicit approval instead, meaning it would not come into force unless enough governments – representing a certain percentage of the world’s shipping fleet – actively indicate support for it.

    Critics say this change would give a small number of countries with large shipping registries the power to block implementation. Liberia has the world’s biggest shipping registry, which is run by a US-based company, followed by Panama and the Marshall Islands.

    The Marshall Islands has long been one of the most vocal supporters of the NZF but, with its officials and its shipping registry income vulnerable to US retaliation, did not sign on to the recent Pacific proposal vowing to strengthen the NZF if it is re-opened.

    Commenting on the chances of the NZF being approved, Smith said “there are lots of things which I think generally are much better and stronger than they were last year.”

    “I can’t tell you now that that means we’re not going to have a difficult conversation and I can’t put odds on what the outcome is but I think things have improved on the energy transition question,” he said.

    The post Prospects for global green shipping deal boosted by US tariff ruling, analysts say appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Prospects for global green shipping deal boosted by US tariff ruling, analysts say

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