Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Biden’s farewell
HEAVY-HEARTED HANDOVER: Outgoing US president Joe Biden used his final televised speech from the Oval Office to issue warnings about climate change and social media disinformation, BBC News reported. The Democrat pointed to “powerful forces” with “unchecked influence” set on “eliminat[ing]” the steps his government had taken to tackle climate change. This came after a separate valedictory address on Monday – covered by NPR – where Biden called on Donald Trump to carry forward his work on climate.
TRUMP LOOMS: Chris Wright – Trump’s pick to head the US Department of Energy – told senators at a confirmation hearing that he would support all forms of energy, including wind and solar power, and that he believed climate change was a “global challenge that we need to solve”, the New York Times reported. This came after the US Supreme Court said it would not hear an appeal from oil and gas companies trying to block climate lawsuits, according to the Associated Press.
Tragedy in Los Angeles
GRIM RECORDS: As the Los Angeles wildfires continue to burn, officials have confirmed that the death toll has risen to 25, the Los Angeles Times reported. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera noted that the Eaton fire is now the “most destructive and deadliest” wildfire in southern California’s history, while the Palisades fire is the “second most destructive”. Carbon Brief covered the causes, impacts and political and media response to the wildfires.
CLIMATE TO BLAME: A rapid attribution study found that climate change was responsible for around 25% of the “fuel” available for the fires, according to CNN. The research – carried out by scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles – said the fires have been “larger and burned hotter than they would have in a world without planet-warming fossil fuel pollution”.
MYTHS SPREAD: As the fires continued to burn, prominent right-wing figures spread “bigoted criticism” about the response to – and cause of – the fires, according to the Guardian, including narratives blaming the fire department’s diversity and inclusion initiatives. France 24 reported that California governor Gavin Newsom accused Elon Musk – leading shareholder of Twitter and Trump confidante – of spreading “lies”.
Around the world
- ZERO MOVEMENT: The Net Zero Asset Managers (NZAM) initiative suspended all activities after investment giant Blackrock withdrew from the voluntary group last week, reported the Times.
- GRID SPLURGE: Bloomberg reported that China State Grid – the nation’s “largest” power network operator – is gearing up to spend a record 650bn yuan ($89bn) this year, as it looks to “keep pace with surging renewable generation”.
- DRIED-UP RIVERS: The Guardian explained how a “historic” drought in Suriname’s interior has dried up rivers, triggered food and water shortages, and disrupted communities’ access to transport, health care and education.
- BP LAYOFFS: The fossil fuel giant BP announced plans to cut 4,700 jobs, or 5% of its workforce, in a bid to “save costs” and “revive” its share price, reported the Financial Times.
$250-$275 billion
The total estimated economic damage and loss of the Los Angeles wildfires, according to AccuWeather.
Latest climate research
- A study in Geophysical Research Letters found “profound changes” in the seasonal cycle of sea level on the US mid-Atlantic coast. The researchers said that maximum sea level in the area had risen by 82% from 1980-99 to 2000-20.
- Leaks from the Nord Stream gas pipeline in 2022 resulted in the largest amount of methane emitted from a short-term incident on record, according to a new study in Nature.
- A paper in Science Advances found that converting forests into cropland “may be an ineffective climate adaptation strategy for improving nutrition” in Nigeria.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The chart above illustrates the institutional affiliations of the authors of the top 25 most-shared climate papers of 2024, broken down by continent. It shows that 85% of authors of the most-mentioned climate papers of 2024 are affiliated with institutions from the global north, whereas only two authors are from Africa. The findings come from Carbon Brief’s full analysis of the 25 most featured climate-related papers of 2024, which was published this week.
Spotlight
‘Cli-fi’ comes of age
Carbon Brief reports on a new literary prize which aims to grow the climate fiction genre.
It is 2025. Wildfires have scorched southern California, while a right-wing US president has been elected on a ticket to axe “wasteful” government programmes.
This is not a summary of recent news headlines, but the setting of Octavia E Butler’s 1993 novel Parable of the Sower, seen by many as an early classic of the climate fiction – or “cli-fi” – genre.
Thirty years after Butler’s prescient tale was published, cli-fi is rising in prominence.
Cli-fi prize
This spring, the inaugural UK Climate Fiction Prize will announce its first winner, awarding £10,000 to a novel that engages with climate change.
Imran Khan, one of the founders of the prize, told Carbon Brief the aim of the prize was to expand a genre that had been growing in recent years. He said:
“We wanted to try to tilt the field in favour of more stories that centre the possibilities of what the future looks like if we start to take climate more seriously – both the good and the bad. We didn’t want it just to be climate dystopias. We wanted to be stories of hope, change and possibility as well.”
The nine books on the longlist make for an eclectic reading list, spanning genres, continents and different planets.
In the mix is the Booker Prize-winning Orbital by Samantha Harvey, a meditation on the beauty and fragility of Earth, told from the vantage point of astronauts circling it. It is facing off against And So I Roar by Abi Daré, which explores themes of climate justice through the eyes of a teenage girl from Nigeria, and The Mars House by Natasha Pulley, a sci-fi novel about the marriage of an Earth refugee and an anti-immigration Martian politician.
Abby Rabinowitz teaches a climate-fiction seminar to dozens of undergraduate engineering students each year at NYU Tandon School of Engineering. She told Carbon Brief that climate fiction had assumed a “more central role in a literary way” since 2018, albeit from a low baseline.
Rabinowitz said she launched the seminar in 2021 after observing that “very few people had dealt seriously with climate change and the climate crisis in fictions, both in literary works and on the screen”. She said:
“The Day After Tomorrow, which came out in 2004, remains the one climate disaster blockbuster that I’m aware of. That was 20 years ago.”
Parable of the Sower is on Rabinowitz’ syllabus, which she said covers “apocalyptic imaginings, speculative fiction storytelling and metaphorical and allegorical treatments of climate change” in books and film. Kim Stanley Robinson’s The Ministry of the Future, Stephen Markley’s The Deluge and Adam McKay’s film Don’t Look Up also feature.
‘Change the story’
There is some debate about whether climate stories inspire action. A 2018 study of US readers found the majority of cli-fi was prompting them to associate climate change with “intensely negative reactions”, which “could prove counterproductive to efforts at environmental engagement”.
However, the research suggests that non-dystopian climate stories with “positive frames” – at the time in shorter supply – might be able to motivate readers to act.
Climate fiction is important, according to Khan, because it can paint a more “vivid” picture of future warming than scientific data, plus “change the story of what is possible”.
Parable of the Sower – which depicts a climate-ravaged world, but also a protagonist with a vision for change – is a case in point, he said:
“It is one of the best examples of… what really good climate fiction can do. It inspires emotions of rage and anger, but also hope and care. Science alone hasn’t solved this issue – and it won’t solve this issue. We need people to care enough to do something.”
Watch, read, listen
COMBUSTIBLE AGE: The New Yorker placed the Los Angeles fires in the context of historic fires that ravaged US cities – and asked what is next in a climate-changed world.
RADIO DADAAB: A stateless journalist told the story of climate refugees in the world’s second-largest refugee camp via a short Environmental Justice Foundation documentary.
NUDGE UNIT: Neuroscientist, science communicator and UCL Climate Action Unit director Kris de Meyer spoke to Your Brain on Climate about how to tell “stories of action”.
Coming up
- 20 January: US presidential inauguration, Washington DC
- 20-24 January: World Economic Forum annual meeting, Davos, Switzerland
- 23 January: International Energy Agency (IEA) heat pumps workshop, online
Pick of the jobs
- Carbon Brief, data analyst | Salary: Unknown. Location: London or remote
- Climate Change Committee, media and communications senior manager | Salary: £59,782-£66,512. Location: London
- Nature Communications, associate or senior editor (ecology) | Salary: associate editor: $80,000, senior editor: $95,000. Location: New York, Jersey City, Philadelphia or London, hybrid
- WWF DRC, conservation manager | Salary: Unknown. Location: Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
- UK Labour Party, climate change, nature, energy and environmental policy assistant for Barry Gardiner MP | Salary: In line with IPSA pay scales. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 17 January 2025: Trump looms; Fossil fuels made LA fires ‘burn hotter’; Has ‘cli-fi’ come of age? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.
Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”
The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.
The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.
Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.
Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.
Green reconstruction of Gaza
Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.
While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.
The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.
But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.
With occupation, targets conditional
In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.
Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.
Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.
That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.
To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.
In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.

To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.
The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.
The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.
The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.
The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Climate Change
Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026
Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.

Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.
This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.
Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.
June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.
It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.
In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.
According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.
Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.
June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.
As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.
The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.
In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.
(Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)
According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.
This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.
In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.
Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.
Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:
“[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.
Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.
* This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.
related
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Analysis: Wind and solar power overtake fossil fuels in Germany for first time ever
The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.
Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.
This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.
Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.
In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year

France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.
French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.
The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.
Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.
Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.
This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:
“In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.
Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.
The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.

Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.
The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.

The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.
The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.
ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.
Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.
Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.

Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.
ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.
Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.
Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.
The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.
The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.

This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.
Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.
6. Declines in EU grains since 2025

Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.
Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.
Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.
Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.
The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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