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The UK should make an international pledge to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to 81% below 1990 levels by 2035, according to the government’s advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC).

The recommendation for the UK’s next “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement comes just weeks before the government is expected to announce its new target at the COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan.

It follows a request from secretary of state Ed Miliband for guidance from the CCC, taking into account the levels of ambition set in the 2033-37 period covered by the “sixth carbon budget”.

Miliband also asked for the committee’s views on the impact of including, or not including, international aviation and shipping emissions. This mirrors the approach taken in 2020 for the UK’s previous NDC. 

While the government is not obliged to follow the CCC’s advice, it has almost always done so in the past.

Such a target would be “ambitious, deliverable and consistent” with the UK’s legally binding sixth carbon budget, the CCC notes, providing a “credible contribution” towards limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Existing targets

Under the UK’s Climate Change Act, the government must set a long-term goal for cutting emissions by 2050, as well as five-yearly “carbon budgets” along the way.

The legally binding carbon budgets, detailing allowable levels of economy-wide emissions, are designed to provide “stepping stones” towards the 2050 goal.

When it was passed in 2008, the UK’s target was to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 60% below 1990 levels by 2050, but this was quickly increased to 80%.

The UK’s first five carbon budgets, covering the period from 2008 through to 2032, were set in the context of that 80% by 2050 goal.

However, in 2019, the Conservative prime minister Theresa May raised the UK’s long-term goal to a 100% reduction by 2050, commonly referred to as “net-zero”.

After the UK officially left the European Union in 2020, the increased ambition of the net-zero target provided the context for the UK’s first NDC, which pledges to cut emissions to “at least 68%” below 1990 levels by 2030 – excluding emissions from international aviation and shipping (IAS), in line with UN convention. 

(This is more ambitious than the fifth carbon budget target of a 57% reduction between 2028 and 2032, which was set under the lower 80% by 2050 goal.)

Subsequently, in 2021, the Conservative government “enshrined” the UK’s sixth carbon budget in law, targeting a 78% cut in emissions during 2033-2037. This budget was also set in line with the new net-zero target.

In addition, the sixth carbon budget includes the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping for the first time, “in line with the CCC’s long-held view that all UK carbon budgets should account for emissions from both sources”.

The CCC recommends that the budget should be set at 965m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) for the period 2033 to 2037. This equates to, on average, 193MtCO2e annually. In 2019, annual emissions stood at 522MtCO2e.

It evaluated the potential level of the target under different scopes, including noting that changes to the methods it uses for estimating UK emissions could lead to higher estimates for both historical and future emissions. These “higher inventory changes” were taken into account for the 78% target. 

If international aviation and shipping are excluded, but the higher inventory changes remain, the CCC’s recommended emissions reduction by 2035, on the basis of 1990, is 82%.

According to independent research group Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the UK’s NDC pledge to reduce emissions by 68% below 1990 levels is “almost sufficient”. It notes that, while the UK’s current target is not consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C, it could be with “moderate improvements”. 

CAT had previously rated the target as compatible with 1.5C in 2022, but it has since updated its modelled pathways “to reflect the latest science”. This resulted in more stringent reductions being needed to get on track.

NDC recommendations

The CCC has recommended that the UK’s next NDC commits to reducing territorial emissions by 81% from 1990 to 2035, as shown in the chart below, based on the committee’s forthcoming advice on the seventh carbon budget.

Line chart showing UK historical emissions from 1990 to 2024 and NDC goal of 68% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030.
UK emissions (MtCO2e), showing historical emissions, carbon budgets, the 2030 NDC target and the CCC’s 2035 NDC recommendation target. Carbon budgets 1-5 do not include international aviation and shipping, however, historical emissions and carbon budget 6 include these emissions. As such, NDC figures are plotted on the chart with international aviation and shipping included to allow for comparison. Source: Climate Change Committee.

Such a reduction would be consistent with the UK’s existing net-zero-aligned targets: the 2030 NDC; the sixth carbon budget; and net-zero by 2050.

Meeting the 2035 recommendation and the adopted 2030 NDC will require “rapid, but achievable action with low-carbon technologies becoming mainstream”, the CCC states. It points to the 10 recommendations made in its progress report, released earlier this year. 

These include making electricity cheaper, reversing policy rollbacks seen under the previous Conservative government and removing planning barriers for technologies, such as heat pumps, EV chargers and onshore wind.  

In a statement accompanying the CCC’s letter, Prof Piers Forster, interim chair of the committee, said:

“The technologies needed to achieve it are available, at a competitive price, today. Investment in low-carbon technologies – electric vehicles, heat pumps and renewables – needs to come now for this target to be achievable. Businesses will start to invest when they have confidence in what the government’s long-term policy plans are. We need to see the government’s commitment to climate reflected in the upcoming budget.”

The CCC has provided its NDC recommendation excluding emissions from international aviation and shipping, “in line with UNFCCC convention”, it notes.

If they were included, the committee’s recommendation would sit at 77-78% – almost the same as the level set in the sixth carbon budget.

Most NDCs historically have not included international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Paris Agreement, which excluded emissions from these sectors due to the difficulty in attributing emissions to individual countries. 

Instead, emissions from these sections are addressed under the International Civil Aviation Organisation and the International Maritime Organisation

While international aviation and shipping have, therefore, not been included within the CCC’s recommendation for the UK’s 2035 NDC, it notes that the UK is “well-positioned to drive international aviation and shipping decarbonisation”.

Stronger action is “urgently needed” to address international aviation and shipping emissions, the CCC says, which are expected to be the third largest source of emissions in the UK by 2035 and the second by 2050 (after agriculture).

The CCC notes that there have been some accounting changes since the release of the sixth carbon budget. As such, the UK emissions inventory has been revised to lower some estimates for the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

This means that the amount of emissions reduction required to meet the sixth carbon budget is now “slightly smaller” – falling from 78% to 77% as noted above.

This has led to some small differences between the percentage reduction required to meet the legislated sixth carbon budget target and those recommended by the CCC in its advice in 2020, as shown in the table below.

2035 UK emissions reduction
excluding IAS (NDC basis)
2035 UK emissions reduction
including IAS
CCC NDC recommendation
(based on forthcoming CB7
pathway)
81% 77-78%
CCC CB6 advice 82% 77-78%
CB6 legislated basis (comparing annualised legislated CB6 number with latest inventory estimate of 1990 emissions) 80% 77%

Source: CCC analysis.

As such, the CCC’s NDC recommendation for 2035 is 81%, while the sixth carbon budget advice was 82%. The actual amount of emissions reduction does not change, remaining at 965MtCO2e for the period 2033 to 2037.

The delivery plan for the NDC should be aligned with the UK’s international and domestic goals on nature, the CCC adds. It should also be fully integrated with the forthcoming National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity.

Additional advice for the UK’s wider contribution to tackling climate change includes strengthening the UK’s national adaptation programme, supporting climate finance and “championing international transparency” by submitting a best practice NDC technical annex. 

The UK should “strengthen and contribute to key international initiatives”, such as the global methane pledge. However, the CCC notes that international credits should not be used to achieve any NDC. 

What happens next?

All parties within the Paris Agreement are expected to communicate their NDCs at least 9-12 months ahead of the relevant COPs. For the upcoming 2035 NDC, this means parties must submit their targets between November 2024 and February 2025.

Speaking at the UN general assembly in September, prime minister Keir Starmer said the UK would: 

“Meet our net-zero target, backed up with an ambitious NDC at COP29, consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C, and we’ll support others to do the same.”

As such, Carbon Brief understands that it is likely Starmer will unveil the UK’s NDC on the first day of COP29 during the leaders summit.

Prof Forster, adds:

“More than any commitment, what we really need is action. I have no doubt that the UK can once again be a leader on the international stage – in both deeds and words.”

Other nations are also likely to publish their NDCs in the coming months, including the US, COP28 host the UAE, COP29 host Azerbaijan and upcoming COP30 host Brazil.

These NDCs will “form the foundation of international climate action”, according to the World Resources Institute. They will be presented and adopted at COP30 in late 2025.

Underlying its NDC advice is the CCC’s work on the seventh carbon budget, its recommendations for which will be published on 26 February 2025. This will cover the period from 2038 to 2042.

The post CCC: UK’s next Paris pledge should commit to ‘81% emissions cut by 2035’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

CCC: UK’s next Paris pledge should commit to ‘81% emissions cut by 2035’

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A supercharged El Niño is coming – are we ready?

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Shaun Martin is vice president for adaptation and resilience at the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in the United States.

“Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature’s inexorable imperative.” A century later, H.G. Wells’s warning reads less like philosophy and more like a prediction for the near future.

Last week, the World Meteorological Organization forecast that a powerful El Niño – a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific – will develop in 2026, becoming potentially one of the strongest on record, capable of triggering floods, droughts and extreme heat across the globe.

This warning should make one thing crystal clear: we need to move faster to adapt to the rapidly changing climate.

Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026

What does it mean to take climate change adaptation seriously? It means recognising that building resilience to increasing hazards must inform planning and policy-making efforts that go beyond trying to reduce climate emissions.

Rising climate risks like extended heatwaves or massive bursts of rainfall should guide decisions about where homes are built, which crops are grown, and how natural resources are managed. We need to invest in systems that withstand and recover from climate-driven shocks rather than collapse under them.

Impacts arriving ahead of schedule

For decades, climate action has been anchored in mitigation – reducing emissions to prevent future harm. That work remains essential. But it is operating on a slower timeline than the impacts we are now experiencing in real time and ahead of schedule. The strengthening 2026 El Niño makes that mismatch impossible to ignore.

In the first few months of 2026 more than 600 thousand square miles of forest land burned globally – the equivalent of 81 million football fields – the highest on record for this point in the year. Ocean surface temperatures are at historic highs, Arctic sea ice has hit record lows, and multiple regions have experienced extreme, out-of-season heat.

The strengthening of El Niño later this year could push these conditions even further, potentially making 2026 one of the hottest years ever recorded.

El Niño expected to bring next record-hot year as soon as 2027

The climate today is fundamentally different than the one that shaped past El Niño events. Heatwaves run hotter. Droughts last longer. Rainfall increasingly comes in destructive bursts. Even historically cooler periods no longer offer relief.

El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, now occurs in a warmer world with ocean temperatures during cooler La Niña phases exceeding those seen during past “super” El Niño events like 1998 and 2016. Yesterday’s extremes have become today’s baselines, and this new level of turbulence will test the limits of preparedness across the country.

Pragmatic preparations to build resilience

When it comes to policy-making, the focus should be on strengthening the health and resilience of communities facing growing climate risks. Across the United States, communities are already feeling the impacts of the quickly changing climate. Preparing for and withstanding what’s ahead is not ideological; it’s pragmatic.

WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in

Planning that prioritises resilience, modernises infrastructure and invests in adaptation helps safeguard food systems, protect homes and supply chains, and reinforce critical infrastructure. Keeping the strength and stability of local communities at the centre of decision-making is essential to building a more secure and resilient future.

Conservation organisations have long emphasised that adapting to climate change is not just about reacting to disasters, but about building resilience in ways that support people and nature. That means working with communities, governments and businesses to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards, strengthen local capacity, and deploy solutions that improve nature’s ability to protect us.

Adaptation rooted in nature

In coastal regions, for example, mangrove forests act as natural defences – absorbing storm surge, stabilising shorelines and protecting nearby communities.

In Mexico, World Wildlife Fund and its partners are using networks of sensors, drones and artificial intelligence to monitor mangrove health and weather in real time. The project analyses how these ecosystems respond to storms, heat and changing water conditions, helping communities and policymakers adapt their conservation strategies accordingly. It is a glimpse of what climate change adaptation looks like at its best: locally grounded, data-driven and rooted in nature.

Climate risk is not a single problem to solve but a system to manage. Addressing it requires rethinking and integrating conservation, economic development and disaster risk reduction into a single, yet multi-dimensional, agenda focused on resilience.

It will also expose vulnerabilities in infrastructure, stress-test disaster response systems and challenge assumptions about what constitutes a “normal” climate year. And it will remind us that even the best forecasts cannot reduce impacts – only preparation can.

The problem is not that we have ignored climate change. It is that we have misjudged its timeline. These hazards are no longer a future risk to be avoided; they are a present reality to be managed. H.G. Wells’ warning remains. We need to adapt or perish, now as ever.

The post A supercharged El Niño is coming – are we ready? appeared first on Climate Home News.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/07/06/a-supercharged-el-nino-is-coming-are-we-ready/

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Greenpeace Pictures of the Month

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From a striking sand installation in Kenya, to tens of thousands of people protesting against the Altri/Greenfiber mega-cellulose plant project in Spain, here are some of our favourite recent images from Greenpeace work around the world.

🇰🇪 Kenya

A sand installation created by volunteers and community members in Kenya, carrying the message "The Ocean Connects Us All" to highlight the interconnected challenges facing coastal communities across Africa and the need for ocean protection.
© Greenpeace / Alfred Abuka Alu

Volunteers and community members gathered at Pirates Beach/ Jomo Kenyatta Beach in Mombasa around a sand installation carrying the message “The Ocean Connects Us All” to highlight the interconnected challenges facing coastal communities across Africa and the need for ocean protection.

A community member at Pirates Beach/ Jomo Kenyatta Beach in Mombasa, Kenya around a sand installation carrying the message "The Ocean Connects Us All".
© Greenpeace / Alfred Abuka Alu
Volunteers and community members gathered at Pirates Beach/ Jomo Kenyatta Beach in Mombasa, Kenya.
© Greenpeace / Alfred Abuka Alu
Volunteers and community members hold a banner reading, "The ocean connects us all" at Pirates Beach/ Jomo Kenyatta Beach in Mombasa, Kenya.
© Greenpeace / Alfred Abuka Alu

🇲🇽 Mexico

Greenpeace Mexico activists stage a peaceful protest at Terminal 2 of Mexico City International Airport.
© Greenpeace

In the context of the World Cup, Greenpeace Mexico activists staged a peaceful protest at Terminal 2 of Mexico City International Airport (AICM) to remind people that the climate crisis is already changing the conditions in which we live, work, and play. With the messages “The game has extra time, the planet doesn’t” and “If the climate changes, the game changes,” the organisation drew attention to the increasingly evident impacts of climate change and the need to act urgently to prevent its effects from continuing to worsen.

Protecting marine and terrestrial ecosystems such as the Maya Forest, as well as a sustainable and just energy transition—one that no longer relies on oil and says no to fracking—are the kinds of decisive changes we need in the current government’s climate policy to truly help combat and curb the impacts of climate change. With the giant balloon—placed in the central rotunda of the airport terminal—as a backdrop, and under the gaze of domestic and international travellers, Greenpeace Mexico activists positioned themselves beneath the balloon, mimicking flames that represent the extreme heat threatening both the game and the planet.


🇩🇪 Germany

© Maria Feck / Greenpeace

Greenpeace activists protest against Amazon cloud provider AWS’s unscrupulous business dealings with controversial companies at the AWS Summit held at the Hamburg exhibition halls. The cloud provider is promoting its business, which it conducts without keeping exclusion lists.

© Maria Feck / Greenpeace

A sculpture of a globe controlled by servers is erected in front of the trade fair building, on which installed screens display scenes of human rights violations and environmental destruction that could be caused in a similar manner by business partners of “Amazon Cloud Services.”


🇧🇪 Belgium

A massive banner in Brussels’ historic Grand Place square, condemning the use of the celebrations of the United States’s 250th anniversary to promote Trump’s political and corporate agenda.
© Greenpeace

Greenpeace Belgium activists unroll a massive banner in Brussels’s historic Grand Place square, condemning the use of the celebrations of the United States’s 250th anniversary to promote Trump’s political and corporate agenda.


🇩🇪 Germany

‘The Wayfinder’s Roadmap’ photo exhibition at Bonn SB64 Climate Change Conference
© Marie Jacquemin / Greenpeace

Simon Steill, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), visits ‘The Wayfinder’s Roadmap’ photo exhibition at Bonn SB64 Climate Change Conference. The Greenpeace Australia Pacific exhibition highlights Pacific communities navigating the greatest global challenge of our time: climate change and the end of the fossil fuel age. The team gave Mr Steill a copy of their new report launched at Bonn, ‘Where the Ocean Leads Us’.


🇪🇸 Spain

Tens of thousands of people took part in A Illa de Arousa in a massive demonstration against the
Altri/Greenfiber mega-cellulose plant project.
© Pedro Armestre / Greenpeace

Tens of thousands of people took part in A Illa de Arousa in a massive demonstration against the Altri/Greenfiber mega-cellulose plant project in Palas de Rei (A Ulloa, Galicia) and the reopening of the Touro-O Pino mine under the slogan “In defense of the Ulla River and the Arousa estuary. Let’s stop Altri and the Touro-O Pino mine.” Both projects would have a massive environmental impact on the Ulla River basin, which flows into the Arousa estuary—the most productive yet also the most environmentally degraded in Galicia.

Tens of thousands of people took part in A Illa de Arousa in a massive demonstration against the
Altri/Greenfiber mega-cellulose plant project.
© Pedro Armestre / Greenpeace
Tens of thousands of people took part in A Illa de Arousa in a massive demonstration against the
Altri/Greenfiber mega-cellulose plant project.
© Pedro Armestre / Greenpeace

Greenpeace has been a pioneer of photo activism for more than 50 years, and remains committed to bearing witness and exposing environmental injustice through the images we capture.

To see more Greenpeace photos and videos, visit our Media Library.

https://www.greenpeace.org.au/learn/greenpeace-pictures-of-the-month/

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Stranger, my Friend

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Back in 1978, my year two teacher at Kelmscott Primary School in the foothills of Perth was a woman named Lesley Choules, who was especially fond of homely aphorisms as part of her teaching approach. Mrs Choules would deliver these cheerily, or icily, depending on how we had been behaving, but not much time would pass on any given day without her reminding us that “a smile costs nothing, but gives much”, or more ominously, “idle hands make the devil’s work”. All very old school, no doubt, but delivered with care and sincerity.

I think Mrs Choules was the first person I ever heard say that a “stranger is just a friend you haven’t met yet”. A simple but profoundly lovely sentiment, which is so at odds with the contemporary encouragement by demagogues and algorithms, to treat strangers with suspicion, or as subjects for exploitation.

And I’m exceedingly fortunate to experience the phenomenon of ‘stranger as friend’ quite a bit today as an adult. It occurs on every occasion when I meet someone new and end up finding out that they support Greenpeace.

These moments are wildly unpredictable in their timing-–being told “yes, I support Greenpeace”, mid-needle, by the person giving me the vaccination particularly stands out in my memory. But what I have learned, not just from reading organisational demographic reports but from my own daily life, is that we Greenpeacers are a varied bunch of human beings united by especially wonderful common threads: a sense of personal commitment to seeing an earth capable of nurturing life in all of its magnificent diversity, and a shared conviction that together we have the power to secure this future, whatever the odds. That’s Greenpeace.

So, to pick one recent example, I was on the road with a colleague, and we stopped in at a pub to grab a counter meal at the end of a long day. It was a fairly typical country hotel…some football playing on a big screen somewhere at the back, people tucking into their parmies and chips.

We found a table, and I went up to place our orders, accompanied by a bit of a chat with the person pulling the drinks. In the course of a polite conversation about the World Cup I mentioned in passing that I had South American work colleagues. The bartender then asked where I worked, to which I responded “Greenpeace”.

And then there was the moment.

‘Greenpeace! I get the emails and sign everything! I love the oceans. It started for me when I was travelling around the world and I realised how much damage was being done. I had to do something.’

These occasions carry an enormous significance to me, and to all of us at Greenpeace. On a personal level, they activate something profound and primal: a rush of belonging and sense of kinship and gratitude. I know, as a matter of intellect, that there are millions of people who support Greenpeace all over the world. But there is nothing like the experience of being told by a stranger, “I am part of Greenpeace too”, to viscerally reinforce that powerful, wonderful reality.

It is only this community of ‘strangers who are friends’ that enables Greenpeace to exist at all. Just to think on this for a moment, Greenpeace has run massive campaigns, taking on the most powerful vested interests in the world, for more than fifty years. Yet in that whole time, we haven’t taken funding from any government or business. We exist only because of people who believe in our mission and our method and give of themselves—their time, money, name, skill, energy, trust, talent, passion and perseverance. It is a miracle of collaborative action that we make possible every day, together.

So, with this in mind, I smile at the bartender and say a version of what I always do in these circumstances:

‘Thank you, thank you. Greenpeace only exists because of you, and me, and all of us. So, deeply and sincerely, thank you.’

And it is such a privilege to have the opportunity to say those words, on behalf of an organisation that I have loved since I was a kid, and for a mission that is my vocation, for all life on earth.

I don’t know what Mrs Choules would have made of Greenpeace—a bit naughty maybe—but I remember her as someone who loved nature, and she encouraged that love in her pupils.  I like to think she would have recognised our common bonds, and been delighted at their regular discovery in these idiosyncratic encounters.

To meet someone who is part of Greenpeace is to know a friend. Another spirit who has found belonging, purpose, meaning and impact in our shared ideal. The truth is, you never know who, you never know where, but if you sail with Greenpeace, you have mates. You will never face the world alone.

Whatever is here now, whatever is to come, we will see it through together. We have agency on this earth. Across our many languages and lives, we will continue to dream a universal dream of a flourishing planet, and make good on our common conviction that together we have the power to make it so.

With Love,

David


Q & A

A question I was asked this week—and quite often get asked—is, what is the relationship between Greenpeace and other well known environmental organisations like the Wilderness Society, Australian Conservation Foundation, the World Wildlife Fund, Bird Life, Australian Marine Conservation Society and others?

Greenpeace is independent, but we are also deeply collaborative, and so often work closely with our good mates at these organisations and others. For example, a number of those organisations I have mentioned above are involved in opposing Woodside’s threat to Scott Reef, and we are all conscious that we have the greatest impact when we work together.

That said, organisations have varying strengths, histories, organisational and institutional realities, so we can often play different and complimentary roles, depending on our capabilities. On a personal level, I’ve always been very grateful for collegiate, trusting and frank relationships with colleagues and friends within the environmental movement (here’s my note of appreciation for Kelly O’Shanassy, on the occasion of her leaving ACF last year, for example). In that sense too, we are stronger together, and strongest when we each play our own part well

Stranger, my Friend

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