Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio is a senior advisor on adaptation and resilience and Pan Ei Ei Phyoe is a climate adaptation and resilience consultant with the United Nations Foundation.

COP 30 compels the world to make a decision. Already 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to rapidly worsening climate impacts such as droughts, floods, and heat stress. Meanwhile, Glasgow-era climate finance commitments are expiring, and elements of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) are yet to be finalized.

This November provides the opportunity to elevate the issue of adaptation and resilience – and for countries to demonstrate they grasp the urgency and are prepared to act.

Success at COP30 will hinge on how three key questions are answered:

1. Will countries agree on a new adaptation finance target backed with real commitments?
2. Will countries finalize architecture to track progress toward the Global Goal on Adaptation and implement the UAE Targets for Global Climate Resilience?
3. Will adaptation receive elevated political attention at COP30? 

A new adaptation finance target backed with real commitments

Belém will test whether negotiators can agree on a new adaptation finance goal that is anchored in clear targets, timelines, and accountability. The Glasgow Climate Pact’s goal to double adaptation finance is set to reach its deadline at the end of this year and countries are facing the question of what, if anything, comes next.

The form of the finance goal also matters: will it be a provision-based target ensuring measurable public contributions, or a mobilization target dependent on less transparent private leverage?

After two consecutive years of falling short, all eyes will be on whether the Adaptation Fund can finally meet its mobilization target and secure a multi-year replenishment to deliver predictable support.

Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are under pressure to demonstrate how to integrate adaptation into country-platform approaches including aligning finance for accelerated country-driven action and providing fast-start financing for implementation of National Adaptation Plans. NAPs have been completed by 67 developing countries and are underway in another 77 countries.

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Vulnerable countries currently need an estimated $215 billion-$387 billion annually to adapt to climate change, far exceeding available funding. And developed countries face growing expectations to renew or grow their bilateral commitments beyond Glasgow-era pledges that are expiring this year or next.

Without tangible new finance commitments, the ambition of the Global Goal on Adaptation risks remaining rhetorical.

System to track progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation

The GGA still has no mechanism to measure progress, despite being established under the Paris Agreement in 2015, shaped through multiple work programs since 2021, and further expanded by the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience of COP28 which set 11 targets and launched the UAE-Belém Work Programme.

Agreeing on a robust, streamlined indicator set that is both scientifically sound and usable by countries with differing capacities will be one of the hardest tasks at COP 30. These outcomes will be a test of whether we can move from measuring resilience to building it.

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Negotiators must settle the inclusion of equitable means-of-implementation indicators covering finance, technology, and capacity building. Finally, they must decide what comes next under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to ensure the UAE targets are acted upon within the next two to five years.

Those targets include seven that set resilience priorities for water and sanitation, food and agriculture, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods and cultural heritage.

Adaptation needs greater political attention at COP30

Last week, COP30 President Corrêa do Lago released the first-ever COP presidency letter focused on elevating adaptation, calling for solutions that will make Belém the “COP of adaptation implementation”. His task now is to embed that principle across every strand of COP30’s delivery architecture.

One test lies in how realistically adaptation is integrated into the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap to $1.3 trillion to be released by the presidency. The implementation of the COP 30 Action Agenda, which provides a blueprint for collective climate action and solutions, could become the bridge between political vision and practical delivery on adaptation.

Momentum builds for strong adaptation outcome at COP30  

Questions remain on whether Brazil’s leadership on adaptation thus far will position adaptation as a political priority that will be reflected in leaders’ statements at the opening of COP30. The inaugural High-level Dialogue on Adaptation – hosted by the outgoing COP President Azerbaijan and Brazil – is another opportunity where countries can reaffirm and institutionalize adaptation as a permanent pillar of climate action.

In the role as the host and president of COP30, Brazil has repeatedly stressed the importance of matching adaptation with actual resources and accountability, highlighting adaptation as one of the five guiding stars of the Paris Agreement alongside mitigation, finance, technology, and capacity building.

With the right outcomes in Belém on finance targets, measurement systems, and political commitments, COP30 could be remembered as the moment adaptation financing and implementation finally matched the scale of the challenge.

The post Can COP30 mark a turning point for climate adaptation? appeared first on Climate Home News.

Can COP30 mark a turning point for climate adaptation?

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