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中国国家主席习近平于2020年承诺在2060年前实现碳中和,此后中国围绕能源转型的思路发生了巨大转变。

然而,尽管此后中国出台了一系列重大政策,但目前仍不明确什么是新的能源系统,以及中国实现碳中和目标的最有效途径是什么。

我们的最新研究为中国能源转型建立了三种情景模型:一种是中国在2055年前建立净零排放的能源系统;一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标;还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。

我们发现,将能效措施、终端用能消费电气化和基于各种可再生能源(如太阳能和风能)的低碳电力供应结合起来,可以极大地帮助该国在2055年前实现脱碳目标。

在最高情景下,中国的电力部门到2055年将不使用化石燃料,而一些行业将继续使用少量煤炭和天然气。然而,配备碳捕集与封存技术的生物质发电厂所产生的负排放将对此起到平衡作用。

双碳目标如何改变局势

2020年9月,当习近平开始在联合国大会上发表演讲时,几乎无人预料到中国会发表如此具有开创性的宣言。

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他说:“中国将力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。”

这一政策现在更多地被称为“双碳”目标。

这句话改变了人们对中国能源转型的整体认识。

在此之前,中国在2017年“十九大”上的目标是“要推进能源生产和消费革命,构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系。”

而习近平在2020年的讲话将中国的优先发展从实现“低碳”转变为实现“碳中和”,使能源部门从至少包括部分化石燃料消费,转变为一旦实现碳中和就几乎不给煤炭、石油和天然气留下空间。

要实现这一转变,需要处于中国政策体系和能源系统的利益相关者,如主要发电企业,真正改变思维方式。

中国在宣布碳中和目标后立即开始行动:国务院推出了“1+N”政策体系,其中包括实现“双碳”目标的总体纲领性文件(“1”)和实施该战略的一系列更具体的指导方针和法规(“N”)。

到目前为止,这些政策主要侧重于在2030年之前实现碳达峰。不过,在2060年之前实现碳中和的长期目标始终存在。

国家能源局发布了一份新型电力系统发展蓝皮书。在更广泛的层面上,多个政府部门已提出要为实现碳中和而推动整个能源系统——而不仅仅是电力系统——进行转型。

因此,今天中国能源转型的基础比习近平宣布之前更加坚实和精确。现在的问题是:新型能源系统将是什么样子,中国将如何实现这一目标?

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中国能源转型的三种情景

为了回答这些问题,我们的研究模拟了中国能源转型的三种情景:一种是中国在2055年前建立一个净零排放的能源系统;一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标;还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。

该分析基于一种详细的自下而上的建模方法,同时将“美丽中国”愿景——实现“绿色和高质量增长”的官方倡议——作为转型的指导方针。

在我们的模型中,能源转型的总体战略包括三个紧密相连的行动:

  1. 提高整个供应链的能源效率;
  2. 尽可能使终端用能部门电气化;
  3. 将电力部门转变为以太阳能和风能为支柱的“绿色”、无化石能源部门。

(政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新评估报告显示,这些是将升温控制在1.5°C或2°C的所有全球路径的关键要素。)

遵循这一战略的结果是,中国的能源系统将能够为中国可持续的经济增长提供动能,同时实现净零碳排放、空气质量改善和高水平的能源安全。

在最高情景下,中国的电力系统将从2045年起实现碳中和,整个能源系统将在2055年前实现碳中和。

与今天的情况相比,尽管经济有所增长,但2060年的一次能源消费总量将有所下降。此外,煤炭、石油和天然气将几乎被逐步淘汰,对进口化石燃料的依赖将被消除。

下图显示了2021年中国经济的能流(上图)与2060年在最高情景下的能流(下图)的对比。

在左侧,各版块显示了流入经济的一次能源来源,如煤炭(黑色)、天然气(粉红色)、石油(灰色),以及非化石燃料,如核能(棕色)、水能(深蓝色)、风能(浅蓝色)和太阳能(黄色)。

各版块的中心都显示了一次能源转化为更有用形式的过程,如电力或精炼油产品。化石燃料中所含的大部分一次能源在这一阶段以废热的形式被浪费(“损失”)。

右侧是按部门划分的最终能源用户。

最值得注意的是,化石燃料(尤其是煤炭)是2021年最大的能源来源,而在雄心勃勃的2060年情景(见下图)中,低碳能源则占主导地位。

China Energy Flow Chart
China Energy Flow Chart
Left: Sources of primary energy in China. Centre: Transformation of primary energy into more useful forms. Right: Users of final energy by sector. Top panel: Energy flows in 2021. Bottom: 2060. Credit: ERI (2023).

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中国能源转型的三个阶段

我们的研究表明,转型之路将分为三个主要阶段。第一阶段是2030年前的碳达峰。

在此期间,风电和光伏发电的部署将继续增加,同时工业和交通部门的电气化也将取得进展。

然而,就一次能源消费总量而言,煤炭和石油仍将是最主要的初级能源消费。

接下来是“能源革命”阶段,从2030年到2050年。在这一阶段,光电和风电将成为电力供应的主要来源,终端用能部门的电气化程度将大幅提高。

摒弃化石燃料可以最大限度地减少发电和提炼过程中的废热损失。同时,利用可再生能源生产的“绿氢”在工业领域将变得越来越重要。

第三阶段是巩固阶段,从2050年到2060年。脱碳发生在钢铁和化工等难以实现电气化的细分部门,旧的风光发电厂将被新的风光发电厂取代,能源组合中剩余的化石燃料几乎被淘汰。

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煤电成为灵活性提供者

虽然中国政府计划从2025年起“逐步淘汰”煤炭,但根据当前的政策方针和市场情况,我们估计在三种情景中,煤电装机都不会迅速消失。

相反,燃煤电厂将逐渐成为保障能源安全和满足电力需求高峰的能力提供者,而不再进行大量发电。

当燃煤电厂达到30年左右的预期寿命时就将被关闭,而不会被新的煤电装机所取代。如下图所示,在我们最高情景中,最后一批煤电厂将于2055年关闭。

图中上半部分显示了2021年至2060年燃煤电厂的装机容量,下半部分显示了燃煤电厂的发电量。

煤炭装机容量在21世纪20年代末达峰,然后平缓下降
燃煤发电在2030年达峰,于2055年下降至26TWh
Top: coal power capacity 2021-2060, gigawatts. Bottom: coal power generation 2021-2060, terawatt hours. Credit: ERI (2023)

与此同时,在我们的情景中,天然气在电力部门作用有限。这是因为光电和风电可以提供更便宜的电力,而现有的燃煤电厂——加上储能和需求侧响应设施的大规模扩张——足以提供灵活性和调峰能力。

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管理由多变的风电和光电主导的电网

依赖光电和风电作为主要电力来源的能源系统,需要采取特殊的灵活性措施促成供需有效匹配。

下图显示了在2055年前实现碳中和的雄心勃勃的情景下,2060年夏季一周内每小时电力平衡的模拟示例。

图中上半部分显示的是供应侧发电量。在白天,光电(黄色)在电力生产中占主导地位,而风电厂(浅蓝)在24小时内都有更稳定的输出。

在傍晚和夜间,储能(紫色)会被释放,水力发电量(深蓝)高于白天。

图中下半部分显示的是需求侧的用电情况。储能(紫色)在白天充电,电动汽车智能充电(蓝色)在一周内提供灵活性。

A safe, efficient, and green electricity system dominated by wind and solar power
Top: Electricity supply on a hypothetical summer week in 2060. Bottom: Electricity demand. Credit: ERI (2023)

作为后备电源,电动汽车车网互动发挥着重要作用——其不一定是重要的能源供应商,而是在风电和光电输出有限时,成为必要时可以启用的最后手段。该方案是保证电力系统容量充足的一种经济、高效的方法。

在2055年之前,煤电厂同样可能是电力系统可靠且经济的容量提供者,尽管如前所述,其平均发电量并不高。

从日常调度(管理供需的过程)的角度来看,这种创造灵活性的方式似乎很复杂。然而,一个高效且运作良好的电力市场(包括消费者和生产者)可以做到这一点。

消除各省之间的电力交易障碍、构建全国统一的电力市场,将是实现这一目标的关键因素。

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未来远景规划

我们在《中国能源转型展望》(China Energy Transformation Outlook)中的情景对净零排放能源系统的长期未来提供了一系列量化远景规划。

我们对电力系统和其他能源终端用能部门建立了详细的模型,从而可以将这一新能源系统的发展与实现这一转变的政策措施联系起来。

我们研究得出的一个关键结论与上述中国能源转型不同阶段的时机有关。我们的模型表明,成功协调这些阶段至关重要,这样才能在保持能源安全的同时避免对能源基础设施进行不必要的投资。

我们情景中的其他关键推动因素包括扩大电网所需投资、国家电力市场的发展和对能源系统灵活性的支持。

即使有最优的远景规划和从我们的路径中获得的洞见,中国要实现2060年的目标仍有许多需要克服的挑战和障碍。

然而,我们的情景表明,有一些可行且具有成本效益的路径可以在不等待新技术突破的情况下实施。

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The post 嘉宾来稿:中国能源系统如何在2055年前实现碳中和 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

嘉宾来稿:中国能源系统如何在2055年前实现碳中和

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AI data centre ban in suburbs would not address fundamental issues: Greenpeace

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SYDNEY, Thursday 30 October 2026 — In response to
reports that the Albanese government is set to introduce draft legislation this year that would seek to ban data centres in Australia’s suburbs, Joe Rafalowicz, Head of Climate and Energy at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said:

“These reports are a testament to the growing community opposition to these completely inappropriate AI factories that have sprung up across our suburbs, and Big Tech corporations should take heed — the data centre build-out must not happen without the endorsement of the Australian people.

“But the government can’t simply ship this problem out to regional Australia without addressing the fundamental issues with this extractive new industry.

“We’re already seeing a trend of AI data centre proposals moving to the regions, in areas that are more water-scarce, more environmentally sensitive, and next to sources of fracked and coal seam gas to support their massive BYO gas-fired power plans — a pattern we’ve seen play out in the United States.

“From the Beetaloo Basin in the NT to the Western Downs in Qld, we’re seeing a wave of AI data centre proposals that would see new gas fast-tracked to support their massive energy demand, and threaten to completely derail Australia’s energy transition.

“Just as suburban Australians are asking, “what for?”, regional communities like Berry Springs and Dalby do not want dirty data centres setting up shop with absolutely no benefit to their communities. Greenpeace is calling for a moratorium on AI data centre developments until strict and enforceable safeguards are in place to protect our climate and our communities.”

-ENDS-

Media contact

Kate O’Callaghan on +61 406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org

AI data centre ban in suburbs would not address fundamental issues: Greenpeace

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Editor’s Desk: COP reform is happening quietly, behind the headlines

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In the thick of the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan in 2024, the UN climate talks were rattled by what can only be described as a major PR disaster. The BBC, Reuters and The Guardian all carried headlines, attributed to leading climate policy experts, that the COPs were “no longer fit for purpose”. 

The articles outlined a series of reforms called for in an open letter signed by 22 eminent scientists and politicians, including a former UN secretary-general and previous UN climate chief, with a further 150 lending their support. The headlines shook confidence in the COP process, just as governments were wrestling over a new climate finance goal.

The Club of Rome – which handled the media relations for the letter – hurried to say that its “constructive, supportive ideas” had been “misinterpreted”. Negotiators kept calm(ish) and carried on, in the end landing the finance goal after some high-stakes drama on the final day.

    To my surprise, when I went back this week to read the letter again, I could not find the offending line about the COPs not being fit for purpose. The Club of Rome has yet to respond to my query about its disappearance.

    Whatever happened to the wording, that sentiment has been widely shared. COPs have ballooned in size while the importance of their outcomes seems to have diminished since the 2015 Paris Agreement (with the exception of the 2023 COP in Dubai where countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems).

    The same on the surface

    Two years on from those painful headlines in Baku, has anything changed for the better? You might be forgiven for thinking not. Official decisions are still made by consensus rather than the majority voting some have called for to stop blockers.

    Tens of thousands of officials, activists and business execs still scurry around the halls to an ever-growing list of side events, roundtables and dialogues, while deals still come down to rows, all-nighters and jargon-filled texts adopted to rounds of applause.

    But it would not be true to say that COPs have completely failed to respond to the very real need to translate the words of the Paris Agreement into action in the outside world.

    Global warming is projected to be around 1.3C lower this century than it would have been if the world had not committed to tackle the climate crisis under that accord. Developing countries have a valued space at COPs in which their voices have equal weight in decision-making, unlike in many other international fora. And most importantly, perhaps, there has been a subtle shift, tipping the balance away from negotiating towards doing.

    Brazil branded last year’s summit in Belém as the “COP of Implementation”, corralling the sprawling Action Agenda into six axes. This was a bid to impose some structure on the mushrooming efforts between governments, UN agencies, cities, businesses and civil society to set targets and spur faster results on their pet issues, from methane emissions to health and adaptation in conflict zones. COP30 alone saw the launch of 120 “plans to accelerate solutions”.

    COP30 roadmaps off the cuff

    Meanwhile, as the formal negotiations drew to a close, it was clear that consensus decision-making was evolving into something a little more improvised.

    With only around half of all countries on board with the idea of a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago announced his team would put one together over the coming year, along with another on how to meet a global goal to halt deforestation by 2030. Those roadmaps will be launched next week, presented and discussed at COP31, though it’s still unclear whether or how they’ll be incorporated into the formal negotiating agenda.

    Saudi Arabia raises a point of order during the closing plenary at COP30 in Belem, Brazil on November 22, 2025 (Photo: IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis)

    Saudi Arabia raises a point of order during the closing plenary at COP30 in Belem, Brazil on November 22, 2025 (Photo: IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis)

    Some leading policy-makers don’t think that matters too much. Speaking to journalists before the Antalya summit, COP30 CEO Ana Toni and Dutch climate minister Stientje van Veldhoven said “coalitions of the willing” can move ahead without needing consensus from the COPs. This, they said, was evident this year at the first global conference on TAFF, co-chaired by van Veldhoven and attended by 60 countries.

    “Consensus or no-consensus in the general COP doesn’t make a difference for the choices I have to make in my country to get my country to phase out fossil fuels,” said the Dutch minister. The Netherlands recently became one of the first to publish a national TAFF plan.

    COP31 banks on flagship voluntary initiatives

    This thinking has permeated the management and expected outcomes of this year’s COP too. Earlier this year, Türkiye, supported by international energy agencies, floated the idea of a voluntary goal to boost electrification to 35% of the world’s final energy consumption by 2035 – and this is now being touted as one of the main results to be expected from Antalya.

    Türkiye is also championing a pledge on AI and climate, while co-host Australia is pushing to ease access to climate finance for least developed countries and small island states.

    COP31 presidency announces AI pledge as UN climate chief says Big Tech ‘on thin ice’

    None of these needs consensus. But with a political cover decision already in the works, as trailed by the COP presidents, they – and perhaps the fossil fuel roadmap – may find a home in the official text if language acceptable to most can be found, giving them them additional weight.

    UNFCCC reform process in the shadows

    Formal reform is underway too, if quietly. UN climate chief Simon Stiell is leading a review informed by ongoing consultations with a group of 15 well-respected climate policy experts, three of whom signed the open letter in 2024.

    Among them is leading Swedish climate and sustainability scientist Johan Rockström who has strong ideas about how to make COPs function better, including a switch to majority voting. He told the same press briefing nothing stands in the way of this, because the rules of procedure for making decisions at COPs have never been formally agreed.

    Still, to get away from the default setting of consensus would require agreement on a new system that may be impossible to achieve given the rise in bullying tactics by fossil fuel heavyweights.

    Comment: The UN climate process was built for negotiation – now it must support implementation

    The deliberations with the high-level policy gurus, as reflected in a summary of June’s session in Bonn, largely echo what’s already happening organically, calling for stronger partnerships and accountability both in and between the Action Agenda and negotiations. It doesn’t mention voting.

    A general overview of the reform exercise says that “improving and optimizing the [UN climate] process over the medium to long term… will be critical to fostering trust, enhancing collaboration, and catalyzing increased ambition”.

    In the short term, don’t hold your breath for anything concrete on reform at COP31 but watch for signs in what ends up dominating the headlines from Türkiye.

    The post Editor’s Desk: COP reform is happening quietly, behind the headlines appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Editor’s Desk: COP reform is happening quietly, behind the headlines