Published

2 years ago

May 16, 2024

Alice Rush

China installed a record 293 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar in 2023 – pushing its total capacity to 1,050GW, according to a new report.

The report, published by Australia-based thinktank Climate Energy Finance, says that, if this rate of renewables growth is maintained, then China could reach its “dual carbon” climate goals earlier than planned.

Here, Carbon Brief interviews the author of the report, Xuyang Dong. The questions and Dong’s answers are reproduced in full, below.

(An abridged version of this interview was published in the 16 May edition of China Briefing, Carbon Brief’s fortnightly email newsletter focusing on climate and energy developments relating to China. Sign up for free.)

Carbon Brief: Your report concluded that China’s coal power output will soon peak and decline – despite rising coal capacity – thanks to the rapid rise of clean energy sources. How widely do you think that potential tipping point is understood, both within China and internationally?

Xuyang Dong: This potential is not being understood or acknowledged enough both within China and internationally. China is prioritising energy security over the need to reduce coal-use. It has positioned thermal power as the backup energy source to ensure energy security, as electricity demand continues to grow and boost the economy. This strategy is being emphasised after the downturn in hydropower generation last year caused by droughts, as well as blackouts in different parts of the country due to the unmet rising electricity demand. I think there is a pressure domestically of not wanting to admit it, as they really want to ensure energy security first. Concurrently, China is increasing renewable energy capacity at a staggering pace that far outstrips every other nation on the planet.

Internationally, news headlines continue to emphasise that China is building new coal-fired power plants, leading to a lack of confidence about China’s commitment to decarbonising its national electricity grid, although the expansion in renewable energy additions in China is at an unprecedented speed and scale.

However, the picture is more positive when we look at installed capacity. At the end of March this year, 53% of China’s installed capacity is zero-emissions. This paves the way for China to reduce its reliance on coal and to do so rapidly – as we map in our report. China now needs to be more ambitious in its climate targets and it is well positioned to do so.

CB: If China is to announce more ambitious climate goals and expand renewable energy like you suggested in the report, in your opinion, what are the barriers?

XD: We are aware there are concerns over China’s land-use as a major constraint for building more wind and solar farms. We have run a case study on a 1.5 gigawatt (GW) solar project being built in the Tengger Desert in Ningxia province. The project has 3.5m solar modules installed and only took up 0.1% of the total desert. In our model, we estimate that China needs to install a total of 5,405GW of new solar capacity to reach its dual-carbon targets and that may require only 11% of a total land area of the Gobi Desert, a neighbouring desert to Tengger.

The real challenge is that more transmission lines are needed. China recently started construction of an ultra-high-voltage power line project, which will cover three provinces – Shaanxi, Hubei and Anhui – to send 36 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity to Anhui per annum and help boost renewable energy consumption by more than 18TWh per annum. More transmission lines like this are needed to maximise the renewable energy generation potential of China’s desert areas and to resolve China’s land use constraints in the east coast.

CB: What do you think about policy support?

XD: I think being more ambitious in the overall climate target would be a good start because China has the capacity, the money and the technology to deploy the renewable energy at the speed and scale it requires.

Considering its political system is “top-down”, a more ambitious target could help the central government to give out more mandates, build better transmission lines and distribute the generated power into the areas that are needed.

Internationally, China needs to align with other developed countries to take its responsibilities as the leading renewable superpower and the carbon price would be an important policy lever. The external incentives and penalties, such as [having a Chinese version of] the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), would also help. CBAM encourages the EU’s trading partners, especially China, to reduce the emissions of their exports. A further driver would be for other nations to also catch up with China’s staggering renewable expansion and start to emulate its speed and scale, so there will be no excuse left for China to do less.

CB: Speaking of CBAM, your report recommended China to have one of its own. Can you explain how introducing one would help, politically, to enable greater ambition from China’s leaders?

XD: Having one itself could incentivise China to increase the price of carbon, which currently is significantly lower than the EU and the rest of the developed world, although there is a deflation in China and most of the commodities are a lot lower than the rest of the world. But a higher price on carbon could be a good incentive, especially limiting the emission in the manufacturing industry. It could also match China’s carbon price with the EU and lead to less trade barriers. For other trading partners, for example, Australia. Australia has been exporting raw materials. It could also incentivise Australia to do an embedded decarbonisation on its exports as well.

CB: Wouldn’t you worry the CBAM would make trading with some countries, such as developing countries, harder with China?

XD: The Chinese CBAM could list different categories and for different countries. It can have a higher standard for the developed countries and encourage the developed world to help the emerging market and developing economy to decarbonise. In the Asia-Pacific region, China, Japan, South Korea and Australia could work together to decarbonise.

CB: In the future you described, what role do you think solar and wind energy will play?

XD: As our report mapped out, wind and solar will be the leading energy sources in the future. China’s manufacturing capacity is driving down the cost for solar panels, modules and wind turbines. The cost of deploying them is lower, too. In the meantime, they have the world’s leading technology, which can increase the utilisation rates. However, it needs to be accompanied by a better sort of combination in the energy storage system, and better energy storage, so the renewable energy it generates doesn’t go to waste and it can also help with China’s entire curtailment issues.

CB: What do you think about the current energy storage situation in China?

XD: It has become a priority compared to a year ago. Most of the policy before is supporting more build out for solar and wind power projects, progressively, and now we can see more documents focusing on storage systems. In fact, there is more and more manufacturing capacity for batteries as well, so we can see a dropping price in the batteries, which will be beneficial for a larger deployment of energy storage systems.

CB: Speaking of solar and battery, what do you think about China’s “new three” – solar, batteries and EV – and how they help China in energy transition and economy?

XD: The “new three” has played a very huge part in China’s economic growth. In 2023, 40% of China’s total 5.2% GDP growth last year was driven by it. [Read more on Carbon Brief’s analysis on clean energy and China’s economic growth in 2023]. This is very significant, especially because China is facing multiple headwinds in different areas, including the housing sector, population decline and deflation.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the first quarter of 2024 saw China sell nearly 1.9m electric cars, more than the rest of the world combined. I think it’s inevitable that China’s solar manufacturing overcapacity continues to lead the global renewable market. China’s solar manufacturing overcapacity has been a big topic and it is posing a threat to the industry as it is resulting in price slump for the solar panels and making a lot of business non-profitable. However, there are still some major players remaining financially healthy.

I know there are a lot of concerns about this overcapacity in the industry, such as in the EU and the US, and I think for China to address the concerns over industrial overcapacity, it needs to, first, stimulate domestic demand and deployment of solar and windfarms, energy storage systems buildout and EV sales. Secondly, China could use its cheap renewable exports to help emerging markets and developing economies to build more renewable energy capacity, boosting and accelerating the global energy transition. Finally, it should be collaborating on joint ventures with European and US investors to build local factories.

CB: You mentioned there are some “financially healthy” Chinese companies and they have often been accused of using state subsidies to win “unfair” competition. What’s your view on the accusations?

XD: It’s a very classic way of the Chinese government doing things. When they see an opportunity, they build the capacity first and they will even run at a loss-making state to just dominate the market. Once they have taken over the market, they can profit from that. China has shown this sort of a pattern of doing business in the past.

However, in the meantime, China has shown it has the labour capacity, resources and the capital to deploy or develop the manufacturing capacity at this rate. It drives down the prices of a solar panel and module, wind turbine, as well as battery and EV prices, so I think it is good news to the global energy transition overall, especially for countries from the emerging market and developing economies when they really need more capital and more cost-efficient materials for them. So I guess it really depends on how you look at it and how you work with China instead of working against it.

The post Interview: China’s renewables ‘pave the way to rapidly reduce coal reliance’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Interview: China’s renewables ‘pave the way to rapidly reduce coal reliance’

Climate Change

The History of Earth Day—and Why It Still Matters

Published

7 hours ago

April 18, 2026

Alice Rush

Fifty-six years after the first one rallied 20 million people across America, “we need to do things that make us feel more powerful.”

Interview by Steve Curwood, Living on Earth

From our collaborating partner Living on Earth, public radio’s environmental news magazine, an interview by host Steve Curwood with environmental historian Adam Rome.

The History of Earth Day—and Why It Still Matters

Climate Change

Judge Dismisses Trump Administration’s Bid to Block Hawaii Climate Lawsuit

Published

12 hours ago

April 18, 2026

Alice Rush

It was the second defeat for the Trump administration’s unusual litigation to stop states from acting on climate change.

By Marianne Lavelle

In a setback to the Trump administration’s extraordinary legal campaign against state climate action, a federal judge threw out the Justice Department’s lawsuit seeking to prevent the state of Hawaii from suing oil companies for damages.

Judge Dismisses Trump Administration’s Bid to Block Hawaii Climate Lawsuit

Climate Change

DeBriefed 17 April 2026: Fossil-fuel power slumps | ‘Super’ El Niño warning | Afghanistan’s climate struggle

Published

1 day ago

April 17, 2026

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Oil prices rebound

OIL UP AGAIN: Oil prices surged by more than 7% and back above $100 a barrel on Monday after US-Iran peace talks faltered and US president Donald Trump ordered the blockading of Iranian ports, reported BBC News. The jump came after prices fell last week in the wake of the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire, it said.

RESCUE PLANS: European countries unveiled plans to protect citizens and businesses from rising energy prices. Ireland announced a support package worth €505m, reported BBC News, while Germany agreed on measures worth €1.6bn, said Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on a draft EU proposal due to be unveiled next week that would see the bloc reduce electricity prices and roll out clean energy more quickly in response to the crisis.

UNSOLICITED ADVICE: Trump renewed his criticism of UK energy policy and called on the government to “drill, baby drill”, reported the Independent. Via social media, the president said: “Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” (See Carbon Brief’s recent factcheck of various false claims about the North Sea.)

Around the world

C-WORD: Faced with pressure from the US, countries attending spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank were urged to “not mention the climate”, reported the Guardian. It added that plans to agree a new “climate change action plan” for the World Bank “may be shelved, along with substantive discussion of the climate crisis”.
NEW DIRECTION: Péter Magyar’s landslide victory over Victor Orbán in Hungary’s elections “presents new opportunities for the country to reduce emissions and invest in clean energy”, reported Time. Carbon Brief explored what it means for European climate action.
‘FURNACE’ SUMMER: There was widespread coverage – including in the Boston Globe, ABC News, CNN, Euro Weekly News, Guardian and New Scientist – of warnings from meteorologists of the development of a “super” El Niño phenomenon that could ramp up temperatures and drive extreme weather.
ANTALYA COP: The Turkish government unveiled the dates and venues for the “leaders’ summit” segment of November’s COP31 conference, according to Climate Home News.
PACIFIC PRE-COP: Meanwhile, the Guardian reported that Tuvalu will host a special meeting of world leaders before the climate summit in Antalya.

€10bn a year

The amount of state support that French prime minister Sébastien Lecornu has pledged for electrification through to 2030 in a bid to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. In a speech late on Friday 10 April, Lecornu noted the figure amounted to a “doubling” of existing support.

Latest climate research

Over a four-month period of 2023, more than 70% of editorials discussing net-zero in four right-leaning UK newspapers included “at least one misleading statement” | Climate Policy
Air pollution from global transport currently has a net cooling effect that offsets 80% of the warming impact of the sector’s CO2 emissions | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
The incorporation of “observational constraints” into climate-model projections suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could weaken by 50% by 2100 in a medium-emissions scenario | Science Advances

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Global power generation from fossil fuels fell in the first month of the Hormuz blockade.

Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that global electricity generation from fossil fuels fell in the first month of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Across all countries with real-time electricity data outside of China, coal-fired power generation fell 3.5% and gas-fired power generation fell 4.0%, according to CREA. This was offset by a rise in solar power and wind generation, which increased by 14% and 8%, respectively. Hydropower generation also saw a small increase, the analysis showed, but this was “more than offset” by a drop in nuclear power generation.

Spotlight

How climate change affects Afghan lives

This week, Carbon Brief reports on the impact of climate change in Afghanistan, following deadly floods this year.

Earlier this month, heavy rains, flash floods and landslides struck large parts of Afghanistan, damaging thousands of homes, destroying crops, bridges and roads and taking nearly 100 lives.

The flooding – reported to have affected 74,000 people in 31 of 34 provinces – is the latest weather-related catastrophe to afflict the nation, whose communities have suffered the brunt of repeated flash floods, droughts and landslides in recent years.

Hameed Hakimi, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, told Carbon Brief the recent floods would hurt livelihoods and food security, noting reports of destroyed wheat and rice crops in the most affected eastern parts of the country. He said:

“This is common. For at least a decade now, [we have seen] these flash floodings and the damage that happens to rural life, farming, the disruption to crops…Flash flooding physically eats up the land. So, it not only damages where people live, but also people’s livelihoods, based on what they grow.”

The damage to crops will be felt acutely, he explained, given that food security in the landlocked nation is already strained by the blockage of its main transit trade artery through Pakistan and international sanctions that have frozen long-term development aid.

Speaking to Carbon Brief, Abdulhadi Achakzai, founding CEO of the Environmental Protection Trainings and Development Organization (EPTDO), an Afghan NGO, described flooding in Afghanistan as a “chronic situation”.

Achakzai, whose organisation runs projects that help urban and rural communities adapt to climate impacts, says climate change hurts the country in four key ways: extreme drought; extreme temperature; “natural hazards”, including landslides and dust storms; and, finally, flash flooding. He said:

“Climate change is a serious matter in Afghanistan. Every nation and every corner within this country is severely affected.”

Ranked 176 of 187 on the University of Notre Dame “global adaptation index”, Afghanistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change.

Average temperature across the country has increased from 12.2C in 1960 to 14.2C in 2024, according to the World Bank’s climate change knowledge portal. Drought is widespread, severe and persistent – harming food and water security in a nation of subsistence farmers.

Meanwhile, extreme weather events are the leading driver of internal displacement in the country. More than three-quarters of the 710,000 people who relocated within Afghanistan in 2024 did so driven by “environmental hazards”, such as drought and flood, according to a recent climate vulnerability assessment from the International Organization for Migration.

A UNDP-funded workshop run by EPTDO in Badakhshan, north-eastern Afghanistan Credit: EPTDO.

Finance struggles

Despite feeling the impacts of extreme weather, Afghanistan has been barred from UN climate negotiations and had limited access to climate finance since 2021. (The government attended COP29 in Baku as guests of the Azerbaijan hosts, but did not take part in formal negotiations.)

This is because the international community does not recognise the Taliban government, which resumed power in 2021, due to its record on human rights and its repression of women and girls in particular.

Almost all financing from key climate funds has been suspended, with the exception of a few projects where UN agencies and NGOs act simultaneously as a “requesting” and “implementation” partner.

Aid from UN climate funds fell from $5.9m annually over 2014-20 to $3.9m annually over 2021-24, according to recent analysis by the Berghof Foundation. Multilateral development banks provided a further $337m of funds badged as “climate finance” over 2021-23, it said.

By comparison, Afghanistan’s national climate plan, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2016, requested $17.4bn in climate finance over 2020-30. An updated national climate plan seen by Carbon Brief – completed in 2021 and later endorsed by the Taliban government, but not accepted by member governments of the UNFCCC – called for $20.6bn through to 2030.

Achakzai, whose organisation attends the COP climate summit each year in an observer capacity, has in the past been the sole delegate from Afghanistan to the conference.

He is calling on the UNFCCC to accept the country’s latest climate plan – and to find an “alternative solution” that would give the people of the country a voice in negotiations. He said:

“Every year we are losing hundreds, thousands of people because of climate change-related matters. Every year we are losing hundreds, thousands of hectares of crops. We are affected by [the decisions of] other countries. Why are we not part of this process?”

Watch, read, listen

BLOSSOM WATCHER: The Guardian reported on the successful search to find a researcher to continue Japan’s 1,200-year cherry blossom record.

COP OUT: Deutsche Welle spoke to experts to understand why India walked away from its bid to host COP33 in 2028.

‘BOMBS AND PORN’: The New Republic looked at who is set to benefit from the rapid build-out of energy-intensive AI datacentres.

Coming up

20-24 April: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group one report author meeting, Santiago, Chile
22 April: Earth day
22 April: Launch of third edition of the Lancet Countdown’s Europe report
24-29 April: First conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, Santa Marta, Colombia

Pick of the jobs

International Organization for Migration, senior thematic associate (climate action) | Salary: UN G-6 salary grade | Location: Dakar, Senegal
Climate Action Network UK, several board member roles | Salary: Unknown. Location: Unknown
UK Department for Energy, Food and Rural Affairs, G7 science lead | Salary: £56,375. Location: Bristol, London, Newcastle-upon-Tyne or York, UK
Save the Children UK, senior climate change advisor | Salary: £62,000-£65,000. Location: London