中国国家主席习近平于2020年承诺在2060年前实现碳中和，此后中国围绕能源转型的思路发生了巨大转变。
然而，尽管此后中国出台了一系列重大政策，但目前仍不明确什么是新的能源系统，以及中国实现碳中和目标的最有效途径是什么。
我们的最新研究为中国能源转型建立了三种情景模型：一种是中国在2055年前建立净零排放的能源系统；一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标；还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。
我们发现，将能效措施、终端用能消费电气化和基于各种可再生能源（如太阳能和风能）的低碳电力供应结合起来，可以极大地帮助该国在2055年前实现脱碳目标。
在最高情景下，中国的电力部门到2055年将不使用化石燃料，而一些行业将继续使用少量煤炭和天然气。然而，配备碳捕集与封存技术的生物质发电厂所产生的负排放将对此起到平衡作用。
双碳目标如何改变局势
2020年9月，当习近平开始在联合国大会上发表演讲时，几乎无人预料到中国会发表如此具有开创性的宣言。
他说：“中国将力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。”
这一政策现在更多地被称为“双碳”目标。
这句话改变了人们对中国能源转型的整体认识。
在此之前，中国在2017年“十九大”上的目标是“要推进能源生产和消费革命，构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系。”
而习近平在2020年的讲话将中国的优先发展从实现“低碳”转变为实现“碳中和”，使能源部门从至少包括部分化石燃料消费，转变为一旦实现碳中和就几乎不给煤炭、石油和天然气留下空间。
要实现这一转变，需要处于中国政策体系和能源系统的利益相关者，如主要发电企业，真正改变思维方式。
中国在宣布碳中和目标后立即开始行动：国务院推出了“1+N”政策体系，其中包括实现“双碳”目标的总体纲领性文件（“1”）和实施该战略的一系列更具体的指导方针和法规（“N”）。
到目前为止，这些政策主要侧重于在2030年之前实现碳达峰。不过，在2060年之前实现碳中和的长期目标始终存在。
国家能源局发布了一份新型电力系统发展蓝皮书。在更广泛的层面上，多个政府部门已提出要为实现碳中和而推动整个能源系统——而不仅仅是电力系统——进行转型。
因此，今天中国能源转型的基础比习近平宣布之前更加坚实和精确。现在的问题是：新型能源系统将是什么样子，中国将如何实现这一目标？
中国能源转型的三种情景
为了回答这些问题，我们的研究模拟了中国能源转型的三种情景：一种是中国在2055年前建立一个净零排放的能源系统；一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标；还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。
该分析基于一种详细的自下而上的建模方法，同时将“美丽中国”愿景——实现“绿色和高质量增长”的官方倡议——作为转型的指导方针。
在我们的模型中，能源转型的总体战略包括三个紧密相连的行动：
- 提高整个供应链的能源效率；
- 尽可能使终端用能部门电气化；
- 将电力部门转变为以太阳能和风能为支柱的“绿色”、无化石能源部门。
（政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新评估报告显示，这些是将升温控制在1.5°C或2°C的所有全球路径的关键要素。）
遵循这一战略的结果是，中国的能源系统将能够为中国可持续的经济增长提供动能，同时实现净零碳排放、空气质量改善和高水平的能源安全。
在最高情景下，中国的电力系统将从2045年起实现碳中和，整个能源系统将在2055年前实现碳中和。
与今天的情况相比，尽管经济有所增长，但2060年的一次能源消费总量将有所下降。此外，煤炭、石油和天然气将几乎被逐步淘汰，对进口化石燃料的依赖将被消除。
下图显示了2021年中国经济的能流（上图）与2060年在最高情景下的能流（下图）的对比。
在左侧，各版块显示了流入经济的一次能源来源，如煤炭（黑色）、天然气（粉红色）、石油（灰色），以及非化石燃料，如核能（棕色）、水能（深蓝色）、风能（浅蓝色）和太阳能（黄色）。
各版块的中心都显示了一次能源转化为更有用形式的过程，如电力或精炼油产品。化石燃料中所含的大部分一次能源在这一阶段以废热的形式被浪费（“损失”）。
右侧是按部门划分的最终能源用户。
最值得注意的是，化石燃料（尤其是煤炭）是2021年最大的能源来源，而在雄心勃勃的2060年情景（见下图）中，低碳能源则占主导地位。
中国能源转型的三个阶段
我们的研究表明，转型之路将分为三个主要阶段。第一阶段是2030年前的碳达峰。
在此期间，风电和光伏发电的部署将继续增加，同时工业和交通部门的电气化也将取得进展。
然而，就一次能源消费总量而言，煤炭和石油仍将是最主要的初级能源消费。
接下来是“能源革命”阶段，从2030年到2050年。在这一阶段，光电和风电将成为电力供应的主要来源，终端用能部门的电气化程度将大幅提高。
摒弃化石燃料可以最大限度地减少发电和提炼过程中的废热损失。同时，利用可再生能源生产的“绿氢”在工业领域将变得越来越重要。
第三阶段是巩固阶段，从2050年到2060年。脱碳发生在钢铁和化工等难以实现电气化的细分部门，旧的风光发电厂将被新的风光发电厂取代，能源组合中剩余的化石燃料几乎被淘汰。
煤电成为灵活性提供者
虽然中国政府计划从2025年起“逐步淘汰”煤炭，但根据当前的政策方针和市场情况，我们估计在三种情景中，煤电装机都不会迅速消失。
相反，燃煤电厂将逐渐成为保障能源安全和满足电力需求高峰的能力提供者，而不再进行大量发电。
当燃煤电厂达到30年左右的预期寿命时就将被关闭，而不会被新的煤电装机所取代。如下图所示，在我们最高情景中，最后一批煤电厂将于2055年关闭。
图中上半部分显示了2021年至2060年燃煤电厂的装机容量，下半部分显示了燃煤电厂的发电量。
与此同时，在我们的情景中，天然气在电力部门作用有限。这是因为光电和风电可以提供更便宜的电力，而现有的燃煤电厂——加上储能和需求侧响应设施的大规模扩张——足以提供灵活性和调峰能力。
管理由多变的风电和光电主导的电网
依赖光电和风电作为主要电力来源的能源系统，需要采取特殊的灵活性措施促成供需有效匹配。
下图显示了在2055年前实现碳中和的雄心勃勃的情景下，2060年夏季一周内每小时电力平衡的模拟示例。
图中上半部分显示的是供应侧发电量。在白天，光电（黄色）在电力生产中占主导地位，而风电厂（浅蓝）在24小时内都有更稳定的输出。
在傍晚和夜间，储能（紫色）会被释放，水力发电量（深蓝）高于白天。
图中下半部分显示的是需求侧的用电情况。储能（紫色）在白天充电，电动汽车智能充电（蓝色）在一周内提供灵活性。
作为后备电源，电动汽车车网互动发挥着重要作用——其不一定是重要的能源供应商，而是在风电和光电输出有限时，成为必要时可以启用的最后手段。该方案是保证电力系统容量充足的一种经济、高效的方法。
在2055年之前，煤电厂同样可能是电力系统可靠且经济的容量提供者，尽管如前所述，其平均发电量并不高。
从日常调度（管理供需的过程）的角度来看，这种创造灵活性的方式似乎很复杂。然而，一个高效且运作良好的电力市场（包括消费者和生产者）可以做到这一点。
消除各省之间的电力交易障碍、构建全国统一的电力市场，将是实现这一目标的关键因素。
未来远景规划
我们在《中国能源转型展望》（China Energy Transformation Outlook）中的情景对净零排放能源系统的长期未来提供了一系列量化远景规划。
我们对电力系统和其他能源终端用能部门建立了详细的模型，从而可以将这一新能源系统的发展与实现这一转变的政策措施联系起来。
我们研究得出的一个关键结论与上述中国能源转型不同阶段的时机有关。我们的模型表明，成功协调这些阶段至关重要，这样才能在保持能源安全的同时避免对能源基础设施进行不必要的投资。
我们情景中的其他关键推动因素包括扩大电网所需投资、国家电力市场的发展和对能源系统灵活性的支持。
即使有最优的远景规划和从我们的路径中获得的洞见，中国要实现2060年的目标仍有许多需要克服的挑战和障碍。
然而，我们的情景表明，有一些可行且具有成本效益的路径可以在不等待新技术突破的情况下实施。
The post 嘉宾来稿：中国能源系统如何在2055年前实现碳中和 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Greenhouse Gases
DeBriefed 10 October 2025: Renewables power past coal; Legacy of UK’s Climate Change Act; Fukushima’s solar future
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Renewables overtake coal
‘HISTORIC FIRST’: Renewables have overtaken coal to become the world’s leading source of electricity for the first six months of this year in a “historic first”, BBC News said. The analysis, from the thinktank Ember, found the world generated “almost a third” more solar power in the first half of the year, compared with the same period in 2024, while wind power grew by “just over 7%,” reported the Guardian.
HEAVY LIFTING: According to the report, China and India were “largely responsible for the surge in renewables”, while the US and Europe “relied more heavily on fossil fuels,” the Guardian wrote. China built more renewables than every other country combined in the first half of this year, the newspaper added.
CONTINENTAL SHIFTS: A second report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a “surge” in global wind and solar capacity by 2030, but shaved 5% off its previous forecast, the Financial Times said. The IEA revealed that India is set to become the second-largest growth market for renewables after China, “with capacity expected to increase 2.5 times by 2030”, Down to Earth reported. The IEA also upped its forecast for renewables in the Middle East and north Africa by 23%, “helped by Saudi Arabia rolling out wind turbines and solar panels”, but halved the outlook for the US, the FT noted.
Around the world
- EV BOOM: Sales of electric and hybrid cars made up “more than half” of all new car registrations in the UK last month, a new record, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers, reported BBC News.
- BANKING COLLAPSE: A global banking alliance launched by the UN to get banks to slash the carbon footprint of their loans and investments and help drive the transition to a net-zero economy by 2050 has collapsed after four years, Agence France-Press reported.
- CUTS, CUTS, CUTS: The Trump administration plans to cut nearly $24bn in funding for more than 600 climate projects across the US, according to documents reviewed by the Wall Street Journal.
- PEOPLE POWER: A farmer, a prison guard and a teacher were among those from the Dutch-Caribbean island Bonaire who appeared at the Hague on Tuesday to “accuse the Netherlands of not doing enough to protect them from the effects of climate change”, Politico reported.
400,000
The number of annual service days logged by the US National Guard responding to hurricanes, wildfires and other natural disasters over the past decade, according to a Pentagon report to Congress, Inside Climate News reported.
Latest climate research
- Politicians in the UK “overwhelmingly overestimate the time period humanity has left to bend the temperature curve”, according to a survey of 100 MPs | Nature Communications Earth and Environment
- Fire-driven degradation of the Amazon last year released nearly 800m tonnes of CO2 equivalent, surpassing emissions from deforestation and marking the “worst Amazon forest disturbance in over two decades” | Biogeosciences
- Some 43% of the 200 most damaging wildfires recorded over 1980-2023 occurred in the last decade | Science
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The UK’s Climate Change Act, landmark legislation that guides the nation’s response to climate change, is increasingly coming under attack from anti-net-zero right-leaning politicians. In a factcheck published this week, Carbon Brief explained how the UK’s Climate Change Act was among the first comprehensive national climate laws in the world and the first to include legally binding emissions targets. In total, 69 countries have now passed “framework” climate laws similar to the UK’s Climate Change Act, with laws in New Zealand, Canada and Nigeria among those explicitly based on the UK model. This is up from just four when the act was legislated in 2008. Of these, 14 are explicitly titled the “Climate Change Act”.
Spotlight
Fukushima’s solar future
This week, Carbon Brief examines how Fukushima helped to recover from nuclear disaster by building solar farms on contaminated farmland.
On 11 March 2011, an earthquake off the pacific coast of Japan caused 15m-tall waves to crash into the eastern region of Tōhoku, killing 19,500 people and injuring a further 6,000.
In the aftermath, flooding at the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power plant caused cooling systems to fail, leaching radioactive contaminants into the soil and leading to a major nuclear incident.
Some 1,200km2 around the site was restricted and up to 100,000 people were evacuated – in some cases forever.
In the years following, Japan entered a fraught debate about nuclear energy.
In 2010, nuclear power provided 25% of Japan’s electricity, but, in the years following the disaster, its 54 nuclear reactors were taken offline.
Successive governments have fought over reintroducing nuclear power. Today, some 14 reactors are back online, 27 have been permanently closed and another 19 remain suspended. (Japan’s newly-elected prime minister Sanae Takaichi has promised to make nuclear central to her energy strategy.)
Against this backdrop, Fukushima – a prefecture home to 1.8 million people – has emerged as a surprise leader in the renewables race.
In 2014, the Fukushima Renewable Energy Institute (FREA) opened with the twin goals of promoting research and development into renewable energy, while “making a contribution to industrial clusters and reconstruction”.
That same year, the prefecture declared a target of 100% renewable power by 2040.
Contaminated land
“A lot of these communities, I know, were looking for ways to revitalise their economy,” said Dr Jennifer Sklarew, assistant professor of energy and sustainability at George Mason University and author of “Building Resilient Energy Systems: Lessons from Japan”.
Once evacuation orders were lifted, however, residents in many parts of Fukushima were faced with a dilemma, explained Skarlew:
“Since that area was largely agricultural, and the agriculture was facing challenges due to stigma, and also due to the soil being removed [as part of the decontamination efforts], they had to find something else.”
One solution came in the form of rent, paid to farmers by companies, to use their land as solar farms.
Michiyo Miyamoto, energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, told Carbon Brief:
“The [Fukushima] prefecture mapped suitable sites early and conducted systematic consultations with residents and agricultural groups before projects were proposed. This upfront process reduced land-use conflicts, shortened permitting timelines and gave developers clarity.”
As a result, large-scale solar capacity in Fukushima increased to more than 1,300 megawatts (MW) from 2012 to 2023, according to Miyamoto. Moreover, installed renewable capacity now exceeds local demand, meaning the region can run entirely on clean power when conditions are favourable, Miyamoto said.
Today, aerial pictures of Fukushima reveal how solar panels have proliferated on farmland that was contaminated in the nuclear disaster.
Charging on
Last year, 60% of Fukushima’s electricity was met by renewables, up from 22% in 2011. (The country as a whole still lags behind at 27%.)
And that is set to grow after Japan’s largest onshore windfarm started operations earlier this year in Abukuma, Fukushima, with a capacity of 147MW.
The growth of solar and wind means that Fukushima is already “ahead of schedule” for its 2040 target of 100% renewable power, said Miyamoto:
“The result is a credible pathway from recovery to leadership, with policy, infrastructure and targets working in concert.”
Watch, read, listen
OVERSHOOT: The Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, in partnership with Planet B Productions, has released a four-part podcast series exploring what will happen if global warming exceeds 1.5C.
DRONE WARFARE: On Substack, veteran climate campaigner and author Bill McKibben considered the resilience of solar power amid modern warfare.
CLIMATE AND EMPIRE: For Black history month, the Energy Revolution podcast looked at how “race and the legacies of empire continue to impact the energy transition”.
Coming up
- 12 October: presidential elections, Cameroon
- 13-14 October: Pre-COP, Brasilia, Brazil
- 13-18 October: World Bank Group/IMF annual meetings, Washington DC
- 14-17 October: 2nd extraordinary session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee at the International Maritime Organisation, London
- 15-16 October: Circle of Finance Ministers report
Pick of the jobs
- Buckinghamshire Council, principal climate change officer | Salary: £49,354-£51,759. Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
- Sustainable NI, sustainable business lead | Salary: £60,000. Location: Belfast, Northern Ireland
- Dialogue Earth, South Asia managing editor | Salary: £1,875 per month. Location: South Asia
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 10 October 2025: Renewables power past coal; Legacy of UK’s Climate Change Act; Fukushima’s solar future appeared first on Carbon Brief.
The Caribbean region is among the most vulnerable to climate change, despite historically contributing less than half of one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Rising sea levels, extreme heat and more frequent and intense storms – such as the 2024 Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall in Grenada – pose urgent and growing threats to the small island states, coastal nations and overseas territories that comprise the Caribbean region.
With global progress to address climate change still too slow, Caribbean countries are taking matters into their own hands by enacting more robust legislation to help protect against climate risks.
In a new study published in the Carbon and Climate Law Review, we identified 78 climate laws and legally binding decrees across 16 Caribbean states, as well as two constitutional references to climate change and a growing recognition of the right to a healthy environment.
Our analysis suggests that, together, these developments are not only enhancing resilience, but also positioning Caribbean states as influential actors in the global climate arena.
Caribbean climate laws on the rise
Climate governance in the Caribbean has expanded significantly in recent years. In the past decade, countries such as Cuba and the Dominican Republic have embedded climate obligations and programmatic guidelines into their national constitutions.
At the same time, legislative recognition of the human right to a healthy environment is gaining momentum across the region. Six Caribbean nations now affirm the right in their constitutions, while 15 have recognised it through international instruments, such as the UN Council, UN Assembly and the Escazu Agreement, as shown in the figure below.
More recently, there has been a notable rise in targeted, sector-specific climate frameworks that go beyond broader environmental statutes.
Saint Lucia stands out as the only country with a climate framework law, or a comprehensive national law that outlines long-term climate strategies across multiple domains. Meanwhile, several other Caribbean governments have adopted climate-specific laws that focus on individual sectors, such as energy, migration and disaster management.
According to our analysis, more than a quarter of climate-relevant legislation in the region – comprising 21 laws and legally binding decrees – now has an explicit focus on climate change, as illustrated in the chart below.
Our research suggests that this represents an ongoing shift in legislative focus, reflecting changes in how climate legislation is being structured in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions.
Caribbean nations are also advancing legal reforms to structure and institutionalise climate finance and market mechanisms directly into domestic law, aligned with Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement.
For example, the Bahamas has introduced provisions for carbon credit trading, while Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados and Grenada have established national climate financing mechanisms to support mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Some states, including Belize and Saint Kitts and Nevis, have incorporated regional bodies such as the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre – the climate arm of the intergovernmental Caribbean community organisation CARICOM – into national frameworks. This indicates an increasing alignment between regional cooperation and domestic law.
In addition to the influx of regulations specifically addressing climate change, Caribbean nations are also legislating broader environmental issues, which, in turn, could provide increased resilience from climate impacts and risks, as shown in the graph above.
Key trends in these types of climate-related laws include the expansion of disaster risk management governance, which addresses national preparedness for climate-induced weather events or related catastrophes. Likewise, energy law is an increasingly prominent focus, with countries including Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines integrating renewable energy and energy efficiency goals into national climate governance.
More broadly, many Caribbean nations have adopted wide-ranging and comprehensive environmental laws, many of which were developed in alignment with existing climate commitments. In combination, these legal developments reflect a dynamic and evolving climate governance landscape across the region.
Proactive vs reactive approaches
Despite general alignment with these broader regional trends, our research reveals distinct developmental pathways shaping domestic climate regulation.
In the eastern Caribbean, for example, we saw both proactive, long-term planning strategies and reactive, post-disaster reforms.
Saint Lucia’s multifaceted approach to climate resilience evolved steadily over the course of more than a decade. During this time, the country developed numerous adaptation plans, strengthened cross-sectoral coordination and engaged in institutional climate reforms in areas such as energy, tourism, finance and development.
More recently, the passage of Saint Lucia’s Climate Change Act in 2024 marked a milestone in climate governance, by giving legal force to the country’s obligations under the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement – making Saint Lucia one of the few small island states to incorporate global climate commitments into domestic law.
Our research indicates that this strategy has not only positioned the country as a more climate-resilient nation, but also solidified its access to international climate financing.
In contrast, Dominica’s efforts evolved more rapidly in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in 2017, which destroyed over 200% of the country’s GDP. The storm’s impacts were felt across the country and hit particularly hard for the Kalinago people – the Caribbean’s last Indigenous community – highlighting the role of socioeconomic disparities in shaping climate vulnerability and resilience.
In response, the government passed the Climate Resilience Act, creating the temporary Climate Resilience Execution Agency for Dominica (CREAD).
Beyond establishing an exclusively climate-focused institution, the act aimed to embed resilience into governance by mandating the participation of vulnerable communities – including Indigenous peoples, women, older people and people with disabilities – in shaping and monitoring climate resilience projects.
As noted in a recent statement by the UN special rapporteur on Climate Change, Dr Elisa Morgera, these frameworks underscore the government’s ambition to become the world’s first “climate-resilient nation.”
Although challenges persist, Dominica’s efforts demonstrate how post-disaster urgency can drive institutional change, including the integration of rights and resilience into climate governance.
Uneven progress and structural gaps
Despite significant progress, our research shows that several key opportunities for climate governance across the Caribbean continue to exist, which could enable improvements in both resilience and long-term ambition.
The region’s legal landscape remains somewhat heterogeneous. While Saint Lucia has enacted a comprehensive climate framework law, the rest of the region lacks similar blanket legislation. This includes some states that entirely lack climate-specific laws, instead relying on related laws and frameworks to regulate and respond to climate-related risks.
Other nations have yet to adopt explicit disaster-risk management frameworks, leaving Caribbean populations vulnerable before, during and after climate emergencies. Most have yet to enshrine the right to a healthy environment at the national level.
Our research suggests that outdated legal frameworks are further limiting progress in addressing current climate risks. Because many of the longer-standing environmental laws in the region were adopted well before climate policy became a mainstream concern, some fail to address the nature, frequency and intensity of modern climate challenges, such as sea-level rise, tropical storms, wildfires, floods, droughts and other impacts.
More broadly, many Caribbean climate laws include limited integration of gender equity, Indigenous rights and social justice. As Caribbean nations such as Grenada and the Dominican Republic begin to link climate resilience with these issues, the region has an opportunity to lead by example.
Ultimately, capacity and resource constraints persist as significant barriers to implementation and adaptation.
The Caribbean region faces debt that exacerbates ongoing development challenges, a burden made heavier by the repeated economic shocks of climate-related disasters. Along with regional debt-for-resilience schemes, increased funding from high-emitting countries to support adaptation measures in climate-vulnerable nations – as endorsed under the Paris Agreement – is likely to be critical to ensuring the region’s climate laws can be executed effectively.
Global implications of Caribbean climate law
Our research suggests that Caribbean countries are outpacing other regions in terms of the scope and ambition of their climate laws. This legislation has the potential to serve as a model for climate-vulnerable nations worldwide.
Continuing efforts in the region show that legal frameworks in the field can not only drive resilience, embed rights and strengthen claims to international finance, but also highlight how regional cooperation and diplomacy can enhance global influence.
These findings demonstrate that innovation in climate law need not wait for action from major emitters, but can instead be led by those on the front lines of climate change.
The post Guest post: How Caribbean states are shifting climate legislation appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: How Caribbean states are shifting climate legislation
More than 100 countries have cut their dependence on fossil-fuel imports and saved hundreds of billions of dollars by continuing to invest in renewables, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
It says nations such as the UK, Germany and Chile have reduced their need for imported coal and gas by around a third since 2010, mainly by building wind and solar power.
Denmark has cut its reliance on fossil-fuel imports by nearly half over the same period.
Renewable expansion allowed these nations to collectively avoid importing 700m tonnes of coal and 400bn cubic metres of gas in 2023, equivalent to around 10% of global consumption.
In doing so, the fuel-importing countries saved more than $1.3tn between 2010 and 2023 that would otherwise have been spent on fossil fuels from overseas.
Reduced reliance
The IEA’s Renewables 2025 report quantifies the benefits of renewable-energy deployment for electricity systems in fossil fuel-importing nations.
It compares recent trends in renewable expansion to an alternative “low renewable-energy source” scenario, in which this growth did not take place.
In this counterfactual, fuel-importing countries stopped building wind, solar and other non-hydropower renewable-energy projects after 2010.
In reality, the world added around 2,500 gigawatts (GW) of such projects between 2010 and 2023, according to the IEA, more than the combined electricity generating capacity of the EU and US in 2023, from all sources. Roughly 80% of this new renewable capacity was built in nations that rely on coal and gas imports to generate electricity.
The chart below shows how 31 of these countries have substantially cut their dependence on imported fossil fuels over the 13-year period, as a result of expanding their wind, solar and other renewable energy supplies. All of these countries are net importers of coal and gas.
In total, the IEA identified 107 countries that had reduced their dependence on fossil fuel imports for electricity generation, to some extent due to the deployment of renewables other than hydropower.
Of these, 38 had cut their reliance on electricity from imported coal and gas by more than 10 percentage points and eight had seen that share drop by more than 30 percentage points.
Security and resilience
The IEA stresses that renewables “inherently strengthen energy supply security”, because they generate electricity domestically, while also “improving…economic resilience” in fossil-fuel importer countries.
This is particularly true for countries with low or dwindling domestic energy resources.
The agency cites the energy crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which exposed EU importers to spiralling fossil-fuel prices.
Bulgaria, Romania and Finland – which have historically depended on Russian gas for electricity generation – have all brought their import reliance close to zero in recent years by building renewables.
In the UK, where there has been mounting opposition to renewables from right-wing political parties, the IEA says reliance on electricity generated with imported fossil fuels has dropped from 45% to under 25% in a decade, thanks primarily to the growth of wind and solar power.
Without these technologies, the UK would now be needing to import fossil fuels to supply nearly 60% of its electricity, the IEA says.
Other major economies, notably China and the EU, would also have had to rely on a growing share of coal and gas from overseas, if they had not expanded renewables.
As well as increasing the need for fossil-fuel imports from other countries, switching renewables for fossil fuels would require significantly higher energy usage “due to [fossil fuels’] lower conversion efficiencies”, the IEA notes. Each gigawatt-hour (GWh) of renewable power produced has avoided the need for 2-3GWh of fossil fuels, it explains.
Finally, the IEA points out that spending on renewables rather than imported fossil fuels keeps more investment in domestic economies and supports local jobs.
The post IEA: Renewables have cut fossil-fuel imports for more than 100 countries appeared first on Carbon Brief.
IEA: Renewables have cut fossil-fuel imports for more than 100 countries
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