The global nickel market started 2025 with an oversupply dilemma. According to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), the market is expected to face a supply surplus of 198,000 metric tons (mt) this year. That’s higher than the surplus of 179,000 mt recorded in 2024 and 170,000 mt in 2023.
INSG also predicted that production of primary nickel is projected to reach 3.735 million mt in 2025, while global usage is forecast at just 3.537 million mt. This imbalance continues to weigh down prices and investor sentiment, especially across Asia.

In China, the share of NMC batteries dropped to 19% of total production in January and February 2025, according to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance. This shift has put downward pressure on nickel sulfate prices, despite expectations of higher consumption in 2025.
- S&P Global highlighted that global nickel demand from batteries was around 384,000 mt Ni in 2024 and is forecast to grow to 543,000 mt Ni in 2025.
Yet, the market remains underutilized due to excess production capacity and preference for alternative battery chemistries. Thus, on the demand side, the market remains sluggish.
2025 Chinese NMC Production Further Declines to 19%

Oversupply Weighs on Nickel Prices Despite Early-Year Momentum
Nickel prices showed a brief uptick at the start of 2025, but the momentum quickly faded due to ongoing supply pressure and sluggish demand. Prices opened the year at $15,040 per metric ton on January 2, rising to $16,080 mid-month before dipping again.
As per S&P Global,
- The LME 3M closing nickel price dropped to a near-five-year low of $14,084/t on April 9 from $16,107/t on April 1.
- By the end of Q1, prices had settled around $15,545/t.
What happened to the nickel price in Q1?

However, on April 15, the U.S. government began a probe into imports of processed critical minerals like nickel under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The Commerce Secretary must submit a report to the President within 180 days.
Trump earlier used Section 232 to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. Refined Class 1 nickel was not hit by the April 2 tariffs, but that might change after the new review.
A recent copper probe caused copper stocks to shift to the U.S., pushing up prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). If the same happens, nickel stocks might drop, and nickel prices could also rise soon.
Asia’s Nickel Market Strain in Q1
Indonesia and China are making more value-added nickel products like nickel sulfate and nickel cathodes. These are used in electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries.
Thus, Asia continues to lead global nickel supply growth.
- Indonesia is set to boost its production from 1.6 million metric tons in 2024 to 1.7 million metric tons in 2025, keeping its spot as the world’s top producer.
- China comes next, with output rising from 1.035 million metric tons in 2024 to 1.085 million metric tons in 2025.
- The Philippines shipped 54 million metric tons of nickel ore in 2024, with 43.5 million metric tons going to China.
However, the Indonesian government is delaying permits (RKABs), making the supply of nickel ore significantly tight. Yet, the country still produces a large amount of refined nickel.
Furthermore, Manila is now considering a ban on raw nickel exports. If that happens, China’s nickel supply chain could take a major hit.

- RELATED: Philippines’ Nickel Export Ban and U.S. Tariffs: What’s Happening in the Nickel Market Now?
Jason Sappor, metals and mining research senior analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, has revealed his insights by noting,
“Amid an unstable global macroeconomic backdrop, we expect the global primary nickel market to remain oversupplied in 2025, with production from Indonesia forecast to expand further this year, despite challenges like tight nickel ore availability and a potential royalty rate hike on nickel products by the government.”
Feb 2025 China Nickel Ore Imports Down 6.3% y-o-y

Tax Hike and Shrinking Profits
Indonesia recently raised mining royalties from 10% to as high as 19%, based on nickel prices. These new rates aim to fund government programs under President Prabowo Subianto. Still, low-grade nickel used for EV batteries will see a lower 2% royalty.
These tax hikes have pushed production costs higher and caused nickel prices to rise in March. But the future remains uncertain. Miners warn of shrinking profits due to rising expenses and limited ore supply.
Meanwhile, Chinese companies are pulling back. Nickel giant CNGR has paused its South Korea project, showing investors are growing cautious in a volatile nickel market.
Conclusion: Surplus to Persist, Prices Likely to Stay Low
Looking ahead, the nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied throughout 2025. INSG forecasts a 3.8% increase in global nickel production this year, after a 4.6% rise in 2024.
Lastly, as we can see, policy-driven price volatility due to new royalties, trade tariffs, and battery chemistry shifts will continue to keep nickel prices low.
- FURTHER READING: Nickel’s Wild Ride: What’s Driving Prices and Future Demand?
The post Will the Nickel Oversupply Continue to Crush Prices in 2025? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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Finding Nature Based Solutions in Your Supply Chain
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How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living
Americans are paying more for insurance, electricity, taxes, and home repairs every year. What many people may not realize is that climate change is already one of the drivers behind those rising costs.
For many households, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue. It is becoming a cost-of-living issue. While climate impacts like melting glaciers and shrinking polar ice can feel distant from everyday life, the financial effects are already showing up in monthly budgets across the country.
Today, a larger share of household income is consumed by fixed costs such as housing, insurance, utilities, and healthcare. (3) Climate change and climate inaction are adding pressure to many of those expenses through higher disaster recovery costs, rising energy demand, infrastructure repairs, and increased insurance risk.
The goal of this article is to help connect climate change to the everyday financial realities people already experience. Regardless of where someone stands on climate policy, it is important to recognize that climate change is already increasing costs for households, businesses, and taxpayers across the United States.
More conservative estimates indicate that the average household has experienced an increase of about $400 per year from observed climate change, while less conservative estimates suggest an increase of $900.(1) Those in more disaster-prone regions of the country face disproportionate costs, with some households experiencing climate-related costs averaging $1,300 per year.(1) Another study found that climate adaptation costs driven by climate change have already consumed over 3% of personal income in the U.S. since 2015.(9) By the end of the century, housing units could spend an additional $5,600 on adaptation costs.(1)
Whether we realize it or not, Americans are already paying for climate change through higher insurance premiums, energy costs, taxes, and infrastructure repairs. These growing expenses are often referred to as climate adaptation costs.
Without meaningful climate action, these costs are expected to continue rising. Choosing not to invest in climate action is also choosing to spend more on climate adaptation.
Here are a few ways climate change is already increasing the cost of living:
- Higher insurance costs from more frequent and severe storms
- Higher energy use during longer and hotter summers
- Higher electricity rates tied to storm recovery and grid upgrades
- Higher government spending and taxpayer-funded disaster recovery costs
The real debate is not whether climate change costs money. Americans are already paying for it. The question is where we want those costs to go. Should we invest more in climate action to help reduce future climate adaptation costs, or continue paying growing recovery and adaptation expenses in everyday life?
How Climate Change Is Increasing Insurance Costs
There is one industry that closely tracks the financial impact of natural disasters: insurance. Insurance companies are focused on assessing risk, estimating damages, and collecting enough revenue to cover losses and remain financially stable.
Comparing the 20-year periods 1980–1999 and 2000–2019, climate-related disasters increased 83% globally from 3,656 events to 6,681 events. The average time between billion-dollar disasters dropped from 82 days during the 1980s to 16 days during the last 10 years, and in 2025 the average time between disasters fell to just 10 days. (6)
According to the reinsurance firm Munich Re, total economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 exceeded $320 billion globally, nearly 40% higher than the decade-long annual average. Average annual inflation-adjusted costs more than quadrupled from $22.6 billion per year in the 1980s to $102 billion per year in the 2010s. Costs increased further to an average of $153.2 billion annually during 2020–2024, representing another 50% increase over the 2010s. (6)
In the United States, billion-dollar weather and climate disasters have also increased significantly. The average number of billion-dollar disasters per year has grown from roughly three annually during the 1980s to 19 annually over the last decade. In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. recorded 28 and 27 billion-dollar disasters respectively, both setting new records. (6)
The growing impact of climate change is one reason insurance costs continue to rise. “There are two things that drive insurance loss costs, which is the frequency of events and how much they cost,” said Robert Passmore, assistant vice president of personal lines at the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America. “So, as these events become more frequent, that’s definitely going to have an impact.” (8)
After adjusting for inflation, insurance costs have steadily increased over time. From 2000 to 2020, insurance costs consistently grew faster than the Consumer Price Index due to rising rebuilding costs and weather-related losses.(3) Between 2020 and 2023 alone, the average home insurance premium increased from $75 to $360 due to climate change impacts, with disaster-prone regions experiencing especially steep increases.(1) Since 2015, homeowners in some regions affected by more extreme weather have seen home insurance costs increased by nearly 57%.(1) Some insurers have also limited or stopped offering coverage in high-risk areas.(7)
For many families, rising insurance costs are no longer occasional financial burdens. They are becoming recurring monthly expenses tied directly to growing climate risk.
How Rising Temperatures Increase Household Energy Costs

The financial impacts of climate change extend beyond insurance. Rising temperatures are also changing how much energy Americans use and how utilities plan for future electricity demand.
Between 1950 and 2010, per capita electricity use increased 10-fold, though usage has flattened or slightly declined since 2012 due to more efficient appliances and LED lighting. (3) A significant share of increased energy demand comes from cooling needs associated with higher temperatures.
Over the last 20 years, the United States has experienced increasing Cooling Degree Days (CDD) and decreasing Heating Degree Days (HDD). Nearly all counties have become warmer over the past three decades, with some areas experiencing several hundred additional cooling degree days, equivalent to roughly one additional degree of warmth on most days. (1) This trend reflects a warming climate where air conditioning demand is increasing while heating demand generally declines. (4)
As temperatures continue rising, households are expected to spend more on cooling than they save on heating. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that by 2050, national Heating Degree Days will be 11% lower while Cooling Degree Days will be 28% higher than 2021 levels. Cooling demand is projected to rise 2.5 times faster than heating demand declines. (5)
These projections come from energy and infrastructure experts planning for future electricity demand and grid capacity needs. Utilities and grid operators are already preparing for higher peak summer electricity loads caused by rising temperatures. (5)
Longer and hotter summers also affect how homes and buildings are designed. Buildings constructed for past climate conditions may require upgrades such as larger air conditioning systems, stronger insulation, and improved ventilation to remain comfortable and energy efficient in the future. (10)
For many households, this means higher monthly utility bills and potentially higher long-term home improvement costs as temperatures continue to rise.
How Climate Change Affects Electricity Rates
On an inflation-adjusted basis, average U.S. residential electricity rates are slightly lower today than they were 50 years ago. (2) However, climate-related damage to utility infrastructure is creating new upward pressure on electricity costs.
Electric utilities rely heavily on above-ground poles, wires, transformers, and substations that can be damaged by hurricanes, storms, floods, and wildfires. Repairing and upgrading this infrastructure often requires substantial investment.
As a result, utilities are increasing electricity rates in response to wildfire and hurricane events to fund infrastructure repairs and future mitigation efforts. (1) The average cumulative increase in per-household electricity expenditures due to climate-related price changes is approximately $30. (1)
While this increase may appear modest today, utility costs are expected to rise further as climate-related infrastructure damage becomes more frequent and severe.
How Climate Disasters Increase Government Spending and Taxes
Extreme weather events also damage public infrastructure, including roads, schools, bridges, airports, water systems, and emergency services infrastructure. Recovery and rebuilding costs are often funded through taxpayer dollars at the federal, state, and local levels.
The average annual government cost tied to climate-related disaster recovery is estimated at nearly $142 per household. (1) States that frequently experience hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, or flooding can face even higher public recovery costs.
These expenses affect taxpayers whether they personally experience a disaster or not. Climate-related recovery spending can increase pressure on public budgets, emergency management systems, and infrastructure funding nationwide.
Reducing Climate Costs Through Climate Action
While this article focuses on the growing financial costs associated with climate change, the issue is not only about money for many people. It is also about recognizing our environmental impact and taking responsibility for reducing it in order to help preserve a healthy planet for future generations.
While individuals alone cannot solve climate change, collective action can help reduce future climate adaptation costs over time.
For those interested in taking action, there are three important steps:
- Estimate your carbon footprint to better understand the emissions connected to your lifestyle and activities.
- Create a plan to gradually reduce emissions through energy efficiency, cleaner technologies, and more sustainable choices.
- Address remaining emissions by supporting verified carbon reduction projects through carbon credits.
Carbon credits are one of the most cost-effective tools available for climate action because they help fund projects that generate verified emission reductions at scale. Supporting global emission reduction efforts can help reduce the long-term impacts and costs associated with climate change.
Visit Terrapass to learn more about carbon footprints, carbon credits, and climate action solutions.
The post How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living appeared first on Terrapass.
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