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Copper is essential for any modern technology. It powers electrical grids and supports clean energy. It’s also used in electronics and vehicles. The U.S. relies a lot on foreign copper supplies. This raises big concerns about supply security.

Recently, President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into possible tariffs on copper imports. These tariffs might help U.S. mining by making domestic copper cheaper. But they could also increase costs for EVs and renewable energy.

U.S. Faces a Critical Minerals Challenge

S&P Global found that the U.S. has major challenges in securing critical minerals. Robert Friedland, founder of Ivanhoe Mines, warned that depending on foreign sources puts the country in a “dangerous position.”

At CERAWeek, he noted that Wall Street’s focus on quick profits is driving investments away from mining. Developing a new mine takes decades, but only a few have been built lately.

Friedland also suggested a U.S. sovereign wealth fund for domestic mining. This would be like the funds China and Japan have.

Top mining leaders, such as Elias Scafidas from Rio Tinto, say Western companies struggle with long-term funding. Investors hesitate to back mining projects. This is mainly because these projects take too long to become profitable.

critical minerals
Source: IEA

Rising Copper Demand Exposes U.S. Supply Gaps

According to the National Mining Association, China controls the supply of 30 out of 44 key minerals. In 2024, the U.S. depended entirely on imports for 12 of the 50 minerals designated as critical in the government’s 2022 list. It also relied on foreign sources for more than half of another 28 minerals.

u.S. CRITICAL MINERALS
Source: NMA
  • As per USGS, In 2024, the copper production of U.S. mine production was an estimated
    1.1 million tons, a decrease of 3% from that in 2023. Arizona accounted for ~ 70% of domestic output. Copper was also mined in Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlights that the global push for net-zero emissions by 2050 is set to double copper demand by 2035. The key force would be AI-driven demand.

  • AI data centers alone are expected to consume up to 200,000 metric tons of copper per year from 2025 to 2028, potentially creating a 2.6-million-metric-ton shortfall by 2030.

BHP projects copper demand will grow by 2.6% annually through 2035, surpassing 50 million metric tons per year by 2050. This outpaces the 1.9% annual growth seen between 2006 and 2021.

BHP COPPER
Source: Wood Mackenzie

S&P Global also revealed that to boost domestic production, the U.S. Department of Energy recently announced $500 million in funding for mining and processing. However, experts believe this is far from enough. Without major changes, the U.S. risks falling further behind in securing its mineral supply.

Despite soaring demand, the copper supply chain faces major obstacles. Labor shortages, strict environmental regulations, and rising costs are slowing production. Experts warn that without faster permitting and increased investment, the U.S. could struggle to secure its mineral supply chains.

Freeport-McMoRan Pushes for Critical Status to Boost U.S. Copper

Amid this copper conundrum, Arizona-based Freeport-McMoRan Inc, a leading global metals company aims to have copper labeled as a critical mineral.

CEO Kathleen Quirk said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference,

“Having the incentives and clarity around those would be a big plus for the domestic copper industry. People are understanding more what copper is used for and its importance in our economy. It’s just a matter of time before it’s classified as a critical mineral.”

She also highlighted that this move could unlock $500 million yearly in tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act.

Notably, Freeport reported a 3.1% drop in fourth-quarter earnings, falling to $5.72 billion due to lower copper and gold production. The revenue decline highlights ongoing supply issues and market uncertainty in the U.S.

To stay competitive, Freeport is pushing for policy changes to strengthen its global position. The company plans to boost U.S. copper production. This includes developing the Lone Star mine in Arizona that could add 100,000 metric tons each year.

Resource Nationalism and Global Trade Tensions

Countries rich in minerals like cobalt, lithium, and copper are gaining control over their resources. In the past five years, 47 countries have made mining rules stricter. This includes 17 major producers.

copper

According to the Resource Nationalism Index, the number of high-risk countries has jumped from 22 in 2016 to 38 today. Chile and Peru supply 35% of the world’s copper. Recently, they increased government involvement, which creates uncertainty for miners.

                   Copper Production by Country 2025

copper producers
Source: world population review

Resource control is also fueling global tensions. The U.S.-China trade war has grown stronger. China is now limiting exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony. In response, the U.S. is ramping up domestic mining and even considering resource acquisitions like Greenland.

Meanwhile, the European Union is working to reduce its dependence on China. It recently passed the Critical Raw Materials Act to boost local production and recycling of key minerals. As global alliances shift, securing critical minerals has never been more important.

Can the U.S. Sustain? 

Goldman Sachs predicts U.S. copper imports could surge by 50% to 100% in the coming months as buyers rush to secure supply ahead of potential tariffs.

Currently, the May 2025 U.S. copper price is trading at $756 per metric ton above the global benchmark on the London Metal Exchange (LME). This increase follows Trump’s. investigation into potential tariffs aimed at boosting domestic copper production.

The expects a 25% import tax by the end of the year, a move backed by Trump. If that happens, copper imports could jump, adding 200,000 to 300,000 metric tons to U.S. stockpiles by the third quarter.

  • Currently, the U.S. reserves have 95,000 metric tons, but they could grow to 300,000-400,000 tons of copper inventories by the end of the year. It could account for half of the world’s available supply.

Meanwhile, experts warn of a global copper shortage of 180,000 metric tons in 2025. This is due to growing demand for electrification, China’s economic boost, and slow mine production.

Copper import U.S.
Source: Copper’s Updated Critical Mineral Supply Chain Calculations October 2024

Copper is More Critical than Ever

Copper is more critical than ever, but securing enough remains a challenge. The U.S. Geological Survey lists lithium, nickel, and 48 other minerals as critical.

The Energy Act of 2020 highlights copper’s role in every defined use of a critical mineral. It is essential for national security, powering industries from AI data centers to military operations.

Copper prices and global supply are already under pressure. Tariffs and mineral policies will shape the future. With the growing demand for clean energy and AI, a stable supply is more important than ever. However, as U.S. import reliance keeps rising, and much of the world’s copper production is concentrated in geopolitically sensitive regions

Thus, adding copper to the 2025 Critical Minerals list would help. It would drive green energy investment, cut energy costs, and strengthen U.S. industries. Lastly, companies like Freeport are only supporting a strong domestic copper supply.

The post U.S. Copper Crisis: Can Freeport-McMoRan Secure ‘Critical’ Status for the Energy Metal? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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