In the push for energy transition and increasing net zero commitments, demand for clean energy technologies intensified, driving up the need for critical minerals. Among these, nickel prices nickel prices stand to benefit as one of the key elements used in batteries for electric vehicles (EVs).
In the first quarter of 2024, primary nickel producers significantly increased their output, leading to an oversupplied market, while mined nickel producers reduced their supply. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, the top five primary nickel producers produced 130,930 metric tons, marking an 11.7% year-over-year increase.

Primary nickel includes refined nickel for electric vehicle batteries and nickel pig iron and ferronickel for steelmaking. Notably, PT Merdeka Copper Gold and Nickel Industries, both operating in Indonesia, saw the largest year-over-year increases.
As shown above, Merdeka Copper Gold’s output surged by 123.1% to 20,900 metric tons, and Nickel Industries’ production rose by 22.4% to 25,472 metric tons.
Nickel Prices Plunge Amid Supply Surge
The rapid expansion in Indonesia’s nickel industry has contributed to market oversupply. This leads to significant nickel price declines from the peaks of 2022 and 2023, as seen below.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price for nickel was $17,790.40 per metric ton on June 7. This reflects a massive 42.5% drop from the 2023 high of $30,958/t on January 3.
The price also represents a 63.1% decrease from the 2022 high of $48,241/metric ton. Although nickel prices rose since early 2024 due to sanctions on Russian metal and protests in New Caledonia, they have since decreased but remain 8.6% higher than at the beginning of the year.

The primary nickel surplus, driven by increased supply from Indonesia and China, has limited the upside for prices, with LME stocks reaching a two-year high on May 29. Consequently, some producers have announced plans to close operations or reduce output.
- PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel, one of the top five primary nickel producers, reduced its production by 9.9% to 41,958 metric tons.
Conversely, the top five producers of mined nickel decreased their output by 18.8% year-over-year and by 9.4% quarter-over-quarter, producing 17,133 metric tons in the first quarter. Mined nickel includes metal in ore.

Sumitomo Corp. saw a significant decline, producing 2,800 metric tons, down 44.0% year-over-year and 30.0% quarter-over-quarter. IGO Ltd., the largest producer of mined nickel, provided 6,527 metric tons, a 21.9% year-over-year decrease and an 8.3% decline quarter-over-quarter.
Nickel Overload: Indonesia’s Surge Creates Market Turbulence
Indonesia, the Philippines, Russia, New Caledonia and Australia were among the largest nickel-producing countries in 2023, according to GlobalData.
As of January 2023, global nickel reserves were estimated at 102.1 million tonnes, according to a GlobalData report that cites US Geological Survey data. The majority of these reserves are located in Indonesia and Australia, each accounting for 20.6% of the global total.
Other significant reserves are found in Brazil (15.7%), Russia (7.3%), New Caledonia (7%), and collectively in the Philippines and Canada (6.9%).
During the third quarter of 2023, average global nickel prices were $22,942 per metric ton, which was 11.6% lower than the same period in 2022. This price decline is attributed to weak demand from China’s battery sector and an increasing nickel supply, particularly from Indonesia.
The report forecasted a further decrease in nickel prices by 14% in 2023 and an additional 10% in 2024, primarily due to the expected rise in supply from Indonesia and the Philippines. However, it is anticipated that the growing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) will boost global nickel prices in 2025.
Nickel’s Role in the Global Energy Transition
Nickel, a versatile metal long used in currency and stainless steel, is now playing a significant role in the energy transition. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a 65% increase in nickel demand by 2030, driven by the growing need for resources in clean energy technologies.

A meta-analysis of reports on this trend indicates that clean energy technologies are emerging as the sector with the fastest growth in demand for nickel and other critical minerals.
However, the nickel industry, often associated with environmental damage, faces the dual challenge of increasing production levels while enhancing sustainable practices.
Nickel’s importance in energy storage technologies has been established for many years. Its ability to improve storage capacity at a low cost was instrumental in miniaturizing batteries, enabling the portable electronic devices we use today.
Currently, nickel is being used in increasing quantities in the cathodes of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), improving their performance and helping to overcome a major barrier to EV adoption: limited range.
At the start of the decade, only 4% of nickel produced globally was used in car batteries. But this figure could rise to as much as 40% by 2030, as bans on internal combustion engine vehicles approach in many markets.
The demand for nickel is not only being driven by the EV market but also by the broader energy transition. Nickel is required for high-performance alloys used in wind turbines and solar panels, as well as for catalysts for green hydrogen production.
According to the International Energy Forum’s (IEF) analysis, annual demand for nickel driven by the energy transition could increase from less than 1 million metric tons today to between 2 and 5 million metric tons by 2050.
Balancing increased nickel production with sustainable practices will be essential as the world continues to shift towards cleaner energy solutions. The industry’s ability to meet this growing demand while maintaining environmental integrity will play a pivotal role in the successful transition to a low-carbon future.
The post Is Nickel Up for the Clean Energy Boom With Plunging Prices? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments
Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.
1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project
Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.
This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.
CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.
2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain
The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?
Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.
Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.
The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.
3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply
WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.
The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.
The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.
The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.
4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward
Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?
Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.
SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.
For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.
Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.
5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions
Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.
Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.
Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.
A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.
6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision
Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.
Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.
Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.
This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.
Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC
Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.
Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.
Sources
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
- World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
- Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
Carbon Footprint
How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do
A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.
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Carbon Footprint
EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026
EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.
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