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The world is set to pump far more oil and gas than it would use if it is to meet the 1.5C warming limit endorsed by governments in the Paris Agreement, according to new analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Meeting the Paris temperature target would mean shutting down production of eight million barrels a day of oil and 250 billion cubic metres of gas a year by 2050, the IEA said in a report this week – roughly equal to Saudi Arabia’s oil and Iran’s gas output today.

Back in 2021, the agency made headlines by declaring there was “no room” for new fossil fuel production projects in a 1.5C warming scenario.

But this week, it added that – with the 1.5C scenario’s projected rapid drop in oil and gas demand – “several higher cost” oil and gas production projects should be shut down “before they reach the end of their technical lifetimes”.

Green dots show demand for oil (left) and gas (right) in the 1.5C scenario, with the blue columns showing projected supply (Photo: IEA)

While the IEA did not name any specific projects, it has previously identified oil projects in Canada, China and Algeria and gas projects in Australia, Argentina and Malaysia as among the most expensive. The cost of extracting oil and gas varies, mainly depending on geographic and geological factors.

Kelly Trout, research director at Oil Change International, said that the IEA’s findings show “countries must follow through on their internationally agreed commitment to transition away from polluting fossil fuels, and invest in a renewable energy future”.

    Buried in a box

    Despite those findings, a press release accompanying the report led with warnings about the “implications for markets and energy security” of slowing production in oil and gas fields – an aspect many media articles focused on. The IEA has come under pressure from the Trump administration in the US to promote fossil fuels.

    The 1.5C warming scenario, meanwhile, was buried in a three-paragraph box near the end of the 73-page report.

    The report found that most of the cheapest and easiest-to-access oil and gas reserves have already been extracted, “leaving primarily smaller, deeper and more technically challenging fields” which are often deep under the sea.

    Despite recent large discoveries of oil in Guyana and gas in Mozambique, the amount of conventional oil and gas discovered has been declining since at least the 1960s, the report found. Over the last ten years, oil and gas companies have been spending less and less on exploration.

    Average annual conventional oil and gas discoveries by decade, with the last column covering only four years. (Photo: IEA)

    Of the $550 billion spent annually, about $500bn simply replaces declining fields. Only $50bn goes to new supply, the IEA estimated.

    Guy Prince, head of energy supply research at Carbon Tracker, told Climate Home that the big publicly traded oil and gas companies “are being cautious, quietly retreating from energy growth and instead returning cash to shareholders”.

    In 2024, Rystad analysis shows that six of these big companies paid out a record $119 billion to shareholders, leaving them with less cash to invest in producing oil and gas.

    Prince said the shift to electric vehicles poses the biggest threat to future oil demand.

    US pressures the IEA

    The IEA projects in both its “announced pledges” and its “stated policies” scenarios that demand for both oil and gas will peak before 2030. These projections have angered US Republicans who worry they will disincentivise investment in oil and gas extraction.

    US Energy Secretary Chris Wright called these projections “nonsensical” and said in July that the US will leave the IEA if it cannot reform it.

    US Energy Secretary Chris Wright at the CPAC conference in 2025 (Photo: Gage Skidmore)

    The IEA has said it will re-introduce a more pessimistic projection, called the “current policy” scenario, to its flagship World Energy Outlook report, to be published alongside other scenarios. According to Bloomberg, a draft of the report shows that this scenario projects oil and gas demand rising into the 2050s.

    Greg Muttitt, a researcher at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, wrote in a post on Linkedin that the IEA’s stated policies and announced pledges scenarios’ projections of a pre-2030 oil peak are backed by estimates from oil companies like BP and Equinor, as well as consultancies like McKinsey.

    “The US Administration wants people to believe that fossil fuels will have a bright future, hoping that this can become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he added. “But overly-optimistic fossil narratives lead to economic risks, both for investors and for countries whose economies depend on oil & gas revenues, such as Nigeria and Iraq.”

    The post IEA says some oil and gas projects must shut early to meet 1.5C limit appeared first on Climate Home News.

    IEA says some oil and gas projects must shut early to meet 1.5C limit

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    Wondering How to Talk About Climate Change? Take a Lesson from Bad Bunny

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    Discussing climate change can make a difference. Focusing on the impacts in everyday life is a good place to start, experts say.

    When Bad Bunny climbed onto broken power lines during his Super Bowl halftime show, millions of viewers saw a spectacle. Climate communicators saw a lesson in how to talk about climate change.

    Wondering How to Talk About Climate Change? Take a Lesson from Bad Bunny

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    Greenpeace response to escalating attacks on gas fields in Middle East

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    Sydney, Thursday 19 March 2026 — In response to escalating attacks on gas fields in the Middle East, including Israeli strikes on Iran’s giant South Pars gas field and Iranian retaliations on gas fields in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the following lines can be attributed to Solaye Snider, Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:

    The targeting of gas fields across the Middle East is a perilous escalation that reinforces just how vulnerable our fossil-fuelled world really is.

    Oil and gas have long been used as tools of power and coercion by authoritarian regimes. They cause climate chaos and environmental pollution and they drive conflict and war. The energy security of every nation still hooked on gas, including Australia, is under direct threat.

    For countries that are reliant on gas imports, like Sri Lanka, Pakistan and South Korea, this crisis is just getting started. It can take months to restart a gas export facility once it is shut down, meaning the shockwaves of these strikes will be felt for a long time to come.

    It is a gross and tragic injustice that while civilians are killed and lose their homes to this escalating violence, and families struggle with a tightening cost-of-living, gas giants like Woodside and Santos have seen their share prices surge on the prospect of windfall war profits. 

    We must break this cycle. Transitioning to local renewable energy is the way to protect Australian households from the inherent volatility of fossil fuels like gas.

    -ENDS-

    Images available for download via the Greenpeace Media Library

    Media contact: Lucy Keller on 0491 135 308 or lkeller@greenpeace.org

    Greenpeace response to escalating attacks on gas fields in Middle East

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    DeBriefed 20 March 2026: Energy crisis deepens | Brazil’s new climate plan | New Zealand climate case

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    Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
    An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

    This week

    Iran war fallout continues

    WORK FROM HOME: The International Energy Agency has advised its member countries to take 10 steps in response to the ongoing energy crisis fuelled by the Iran war, including reducing highway speeds and encouraging people to work from home, said the Guardian. It came after retaliatory attacks between Israel and Iran continued to destroy energy infrastructure in the Middle East, causing energy prices to soar further, said Reuters.

    SUPPLY DISRUPTED: The IEA also said it is prepared to make more of its member nations’ 1.4bn-barrel oil reserves available to help ease the impacts of what it called the “biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market”, reported Bloomberg. The outlet noted that Asian countries have been hit hardest by the shortages, caused by a “near-halt” of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    EU SUMMIT: The energy crisis dominated talks at an EU leaders summit on Thursday, said Politico. Arriving at the summit, Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez attacked other European leaders for using the energy crisis as an excuse to “gut climate policies”, according to the EU Observer. The Financial Times said that some European leaders have asked the European Commission to overhaul its flagship emissions trading system (ETS) by summer in response to the energy crisis.

    COAL BOOST: In response to the conflict, utility companies in Asia are “boosting coal-fired power generation to cut costs and safeguard energy supply”, said Reuters. UN climate change executive secretary Simon Stiell told Reuters: “If there was ever a moment to accelerate that energy transition, ​breaking dependencies which have shackled economies, this is the time.”

    Around the world

    • WINDFARM WINDFALL: The Trump administration in the US is considering a nearly $1bn settlement with TotalEnergies to cancel the French energy company’s two planned windfarms off the US east coast and have it instead invest in fossil-gas infrastructure in Texas, according to documents seen by the New York Times.
    • BUSINESS CLASH: Following “clashes” with the agribusiness sector, Brazil launched its new climate plan, which calls for a 49-58% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 2022 levels by 2025 and includes “specific guidelines for different sectors”, reported Folha de Sao Paolo.
    • SALES SLUMP: Sales of liquified petroleum gas from India’s state-run oil companies have fallen by 17% this month due to cuts in deliveries to commercial and industrial consumers “amid the widespread logistical bottlenecks triggered by the Iran war”, said the Economic Times.
    • CUBAN ENERGY CRISIS: The US imposed an “effective oil blockade” on Cuba, leaving the country facing its “worst energy crisis in decades”, reported the Washington Post. Meanwhile, Chinese exports of solar panels to the island have “skyrocketed” since 2023, it added.
    • RECORD HIGHS: An “unprecedented” heatwave in the western and south-western US is “shattering dozens of temperature records” and could lead to drought in California in the coming months, reported the Los Angeles Times.
    • VULNERABILITY CONCERNS: Landslides that killed more than 100 people in southern Ethiopia have “renewed concerns about Ethiopia’s vulnerability to climate-related disasters”, said the Addis Standard.

    1%

    The percentage of England’s land surface that could be devoted to renewables by 2050, according to the long-awaited “land-use framework” released by the UK government this week and covered by Carbon Brief.


    Latest climate research

    • Approaching international climate action by shifting the burden of mitigation onto higher-income countries could avoid 13.5 million premature deaths from air pollution in middle- and lower-income countries by 2050 | The Lancet Global Health
    • Beavers can turn the ecosystems surrounding streams into “persistent” sinks of carbon that can sequester an order of magnitude more than non-beaver-modified ecosystems can store | Communications Earth & Environment
    • Mobile-phone data from seven diverse countries during the summer heatwaves of 2022-23 showed a “widespread tendency to withdraw into homes” and an increase in out-of-home activities that can offer cooling, such as indoor retail | Environmental Research: Climate

    (For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

    Captured

    Nearly_750_studies_have_found_that_climate_change_has_made_extreme_events_more_severe_or_likely

    Carbon Brief this week published a significant update to its map of how climate change is affecting extreme weather events around the world. The map now includes 232 new extreme weather events from studies published in 2024 and 2025. Of these events, 196 were made more severe or more likely to occur by human-driven climate change, 12 were made less severe or less likely to occur and 10 had no discernible human influence. (The remaining 14 studies were inconclusive.)

    Spotlight

    New Zealand breaks new ground on climate litigation

    This week, Carbon Brief speaks to experts about a first-of-its-kind climate lawsuit in New Zealand.

    Earlier this week, representatives from two environmentally focused legal advocacy groups challenged the New Zealand government’s climate-action plan in court.

    The plaintiffs argued that the measures laid out in the plan are insufficient to achieve the country’s legal obligation to hold global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.

    The case could be “influential” in shaping lawsuits and rulings around the world, one legal expert not involved in the case told Carbon Brief.

    Reductions vs removals

    The new case contends that there are several issues regarding the New Zealand government’s response to climate change.

    One of the key arguments the plaintiffs make is that New Zealand’s second emissions reduction plan, which covers the period from 2026-30, is overreliant on the use of tree-planting to achieve its targets.

    When the plan was released in December 2024, it was “immediately clear that it was a pretty lacklustre plan”, Eliza Prestidge Oldfield, senior legal researcher at the Environmental Law Initiative, one of the groups behind the legal case, told Carbon Brief.

    The plan called for large-scale planting of pine tree plantations, which are not native to New Zealand and have a high risk of burning. Because of this, there are concerns about how permanent any carbon removal provided by these plantations actually can be, experts told Carbon Brief.

    Catherine Higham, senior policy fellow at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment who was not involved in the case, said:

    “The lawyers are arguing that there are real challenges with equating the emissions that you may be able to remove from the atmosphere through afforestation with actual emissions reductions, which are much more certain.”

    ‘Global dialogue’

    While other climate lawsuits elsewhere in the world have also focused on the inadequacy of a government’s plan to meet its stated emissions-reduction targets, this is the first such case that addresses the role of removals head-on.

    Lucy Maxwell, co-director of the Climate Litigation Network, told Carbon Brief that the lawsuit “builds on a decade of climate litigation” in national, regional and international courts.

    Maxwell, who was not involved in the New Zealand case, added that there is a “real global dialogue” between, not just plaintiffs, but national courts as well. She said:

    “[National courts] look to common issues that have been decided in other countries. They’re not binding on that court if it’s at the national level, but they are influential.”

    Given that many other countries have legal frameworks requiring their governments to create plans outlining the pathway to their long-term climate targets, Prestidge Oldfield told Carbon Brief that other jurisdictions “should be interested in these questions around the level of certainty”.

    Higham noted that, even if the case is successful, addressing the plan’s shortfalls will face its own set of challenges. She told Carbon Brief:

    “A lot of these decisions are political and they can be politically contentious…Those [measures] have to be put into action through legislation and that is then subject to the usual political process. So that’s where the challenge comes in.”

    While she could not speculate on the outcome of the case, Prestidge Oldfield said it was “very heartening” to see that both the judge and the opposing counsel “appreciated how much of a concern climate change is globally”.

    She added:

    “It’s not a given that the judge would even be interested in climate change.”

    Watch, read, listen

    COMMON APPROACH: The Heated podcast analysed fossil-fuel advertisements and highlighted the most common deception tactics they employed.

    THREAT ASSESSMENT: Mongabay mapped the potential threat that oil extraction poses to Venezuela’s ecosystems, including the Amazon rainforest and its coral reefs.

    SALT LAKES? GREAT!: High Country News interviewed journalist Dr Caroline Tracey about her new book on saline lakes – such as Utah’s Great Salt Lake – the threats that face them and what they can teach us.

    Coming up

    • 23 March-2 April: Third meeting of the preparatory commission for the High Seas Treaty, New York
    • 24-27 March: 64th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Bangkok
    • 26-29 March: 14th ministerial conference of the World Trade Organization, Yaoundé, Cameroon

    Pick of the jobs

    • International Centre of Research for the Environment and Development (CIRAD), IPCC chapter scientist | Salary: €3,200-3,750 per month. Location: Nogent-sur-Marne, France
    • Avaaz, chief of staff | Salary: Dependent on location. Location: Remote, with preferred time zones
    • Green Party, social media officer | Salary: £31,592-£32,192. Location: Remote or Westminster, UK

    DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

    This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

    The post DeBriefed 20 March 2026: Energy crisis deepens | Brazil’s new climate plan | New Zealand climate case appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    DeBriefed 20 March 2026: Energy crisis deepens | Brazil’s new climate plan | New Zealand climate case

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