The ocean plays a vital role in regulating the climate, storing roughly 50 times more carbon dioxide (CO2) than the atmosphere.
Marine life plays a significant part in this process, as organisms transfer carbon from the ocean surface to the deep sea upon death or as they migrate.
Our new research, published in Nature Communications, suggests the contribution of ocean biology to climate regulation is more complex than previously thought.
To explore how ocean biology shapes the past, present and future climate, we explore an extreme scenario where all marine life has been wiped out.
We find that – in a pre-industrial climate – CO2 levels would rise by 50% without marine life, leading to 1.6C of global warming.
In a separate study in Nature Climate Change, we estimate that ocean biology sequesters the equivalent of 10bn tonnes of CO2 each year.
This is more than one quarter of annual fossil-fuel emissions from human activity.
We also calculate that the contribution of marine life to carbon storage is worth hundreds of billions of dollars each year.
Biological carbon pump
The ocean takes up and stores vast amounts of CO2 every year through two mechanisms known as “carbon pumps”.
The first is the “solubility pump”. This is the process by which dissolved CO2 in seawater is transported from the ocean’s surface to its depth through the sinking and upwelling of water mass.
The second is the “biological carbon pump”. This is the process where carbon is converted into organic materials by plankton and other marine organisms at the ocean’s surface and then transported to the deep sea when they die or migrate.
Scientists have long known that the biological carbon pump played an essential role in maintaining low atmospheric CO2 levels before the industrial revolution.
However, the conventional view is that the solubility pump has been responsible for the ocean’s steady absorption of rising CO2 emissions caused by human activity.
Our findings challenge this view, by showing the biological carbon pump plays a crucial role in the modern ocean’s sequestration of atmospheric CO2.
We find that, without marine life, the ocean’s capacity to capture CO2 emissions would be significantly diminished.
Two scenarios
To get an estimate of the contribution of the marine carbon pump in a stable pre-industrial climate, we simulate the planet’s climate as it was before the industrial era using a complex Earth system model.
(This is the second generation of the Norwegian Earth system model, which contributed to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.)
We then explore what would happen to the Earth’s climate system under two scenarios:
- A reference, “healthy ocean” scenario where ocean biology conditions were as realistic as possible.
- An “abiotic” scenario where all marine life is removed.
In a pre-industrial scenario with no marine life, we find that atmospheric CO2 levels would rise to 445 parts per million (ppm). This is an increase of more than 50% on the “healthy ocean” scenario, where CO2 levels are 282ppm.
(This suggests that the influence of marine life on global CO2 levels is greater than the sum of all human activity, which has – so far – raised atmospheric CO2 concentrations to around 425ppm).
The rise in CO2 levels caused by the absence of marine life would result in about 1.64C of global warming at the surface and a 1.15C increase in global sea surface temperature.
This warming would have considerable impacts on the wider world, including declines in sea ice area at the Arctic and Antarctic of close to 25% and an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that was around 9% weaker.
The value of exploring such an extreme scenario is to investigate the role biological processes in the ocean play in carbon storage, as well as the implications of damage to marine life.
The role of terrestrial ecosystems
Our estimation that pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 would rise by 163ppm without ocean biology is on the lower end of the 150-240ppm range approximated by some previous studies.
However, previous estimates of the contribution of the biological carbon pump in a pre-industrial climate neglect the interactions between oceanic and terrestrial biospheres.
Our research reveals that terrestrial ecosystems – such as tropical forests and grasslands – play a crucial role in compensating for the increase in CO2 concentrations when ocean life declines. (This is due to the CO2 fertilisation effect, when higher CO2 concentrations speed up photosynthesis).
We find that in the extreme pre-industrial scenario, approximately half the carbon lost from the ocean is absorbed by the land.
The figure below illustrates the Earth’s carbon reservoirs in a pre-industrial climate with (left) and without (right) marine life. It shows how, if marine life is wiped out, carbon content decreases in the ocean and marine sediment, whereas more carbon accumulates in the atmosphere and on land.

Ramifications for the future
Today, the ocean captures approximately 25% of human-caused CO2 emissions – which allows it to play a crucial role in slowing global warming.
In order to estimate the overall importance of marine life to carbon sequestration in the ocean, we also conduct experiments for various future emission pathways – both with, and without, marine life.
In all cases, we find that more CO2 emitted by human activities remains in the atmosphere when there is no marine life.
One might think that the ocean’s lower concentrations of carbon in the pre-industrial climate, relative to the atmosphere, might mean it would be able to absorb more additional carbon.
However, we find the absence of marine life fundamentally alters the vertical distribution of carbon in the ocean. Although the total amount of carbon stored is lower, there is more carbon at the surface due to an absence of organisms. This, in turn, hinders additional CO2 from entering the ocean.
Another surprising finding of the simulations was that the terrestrial biosphere’s capacity to absorb excess CO2 by increasing its vegetation mass diminishes over time, potentially due to limited nutrients.
The figure below shows the distribution of human-caused CO2 in the Earth’s carbon reservoirs under two 2100 scenarios. The chart on the left shows a scenario with ocean life, and the chart on the right shows one without ocean biology.
It illustrates how, without marine life, more CO2 stays in the atmosphere and less goes into the land and the ocean.

The study shows that in the absence of marine life, future warming would occur faster and more intensely.
This acceleration in warming would potentially trigger other processes that could further amplify warming, such as greater ocean stratification, longer sea-ice free Arctic summers and greater loss of permafrost.
Economic benefits
Damaging marine life is economically costly given the many and various benefits – or “ecosystem services” – provided by carbon sequestration.
We estimate that the sinking of organic matter sequesters approximately 2.8bn tonnes of carbon annually, locking it away from the atmosphere for at least 50 years.
This carbon sequestration capacity is equivalent to 10bn tonnes of atmospheric CO2 – or roughly 27% of emissions generated by fossil fuels in 2024.
We estimate – based on a carbon price of $90 per tonne of CO2 – that the carbon storage provided by the marine carbon pump is worth $545bn per year in international waters and $383bn per year within national waters. Its total value is projected to exceed $2.2tn by 2030.
Carbon storage is valuable because it helps avoid climate impacts.
This economic value is important for developing countries, particularly small island developing states whose national waters are collectively responsible for 11% of biological carbon pump sequestration activity, in terms of carbon stored.
The top eight countries where the biological carbon pump value is highest in proportion to gross domestic product (GDP) are small island states. These are the Cook Islands, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Palau and Tuvalu. Of these nations, just one – the Cook Islands – is classified by the World Bank as high income.
These climate-impacted nations’ key role in preserving ocean health should be considered in discussions of international climate finance.
The figure below shows the economic value of carbon sequestration of the biological carbon pump for each of these eight small island states, calculated on the basis of a carbon price of $90 per tonne of CO2.
For example, it illustrates how Micronesia and Kiribati have an estimated biological carbon pump value of $4,620m and $8,525m each year, respectively.

A healthy ocean buys the world time in the battle against global warming, but the window to protect it is closing rapidly.
Marine ecosystems remain vulnerable to a raft of human activities, including industrial fishing, pollution, shipping and deep-sea mining. Stronger conservation policies, enhanced financial incentives for lower income countries and increased international cooperation are essential to protect the services provided by ecosystems.
These are important steps towards not only protecting 30% of the global ocean as agreed under the new Global Biodiversity Framework – but it will help to reach the Paris Agreement’s climate target.
There are a number of tools at governments disposal to protect the valuable services provided by marine ecosystems. This includes promoting sustainable fishing and ecotourism, establishing marine protected areas and undertaking robust environmental impact assessments.
Nations can also support protection of the biological heat pump within international waters by ratifying the High Seas Treaty, which recognises the importance of protecting biogeochemical cycles.
The post Guest post: How marine life provides climate benefits worth billions of dollars appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: How marine life provides climate benefits worth billions of dollars
Climate Change
DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
UK, Europe and India battle heatwaves
‘MIND-BOGGLING’ MAY: The UK and continental Europe have set “mind-boggingly crazy” temperature records for May amid a deadly heatwave, reported the Financial Times. According to the Associated Press, the UK “smashed a century-old temperature record for the second time in 24 hours on Tuesday”. The newswire added that records “also fell in France, where temperatures reached 36C on Monday in the country’s south-west”. On Wednesday, Portugal hit a record May temperature of 40.3C, said BBC News.
‘BRUTAL REMINDER’: In parts of Italy, the heatwave triggered blackouts, reported Reuters. The heatwave has also been linked to more than a dozen deaths in the UK and France, including from people drowning and suffering heat-related deaths while competing in sporting events, said ABC News. Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of UN Climate Change, said the intense heatwaves were a “brutal reminder” of the cost of global warming, reported Politico. Carbon Brief has in-depth coverage of the record-shattering heatwave.
INDIA’S DEADLY HEAT: In the southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, more than 100 people died within three days following an intense heatwave, reported the Khaleej Times. The publication noted that authorities urged people to stay indoors and avoid direct exposure to the heat. Meanwhile, some parts of India are “grappling with power cuts as record-breaking heat has pushed electricity demand to an all-time high”, reported Reuters.
Around the world
- CRUDE DIPS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global investments in oil projects will fall below $500bn in 2026, continuing a three-year decline, reported Bloomberg. Carbon Brief’s analysis of the data shows the US’s “data-centre boom” means it is now investing more in fossil-fuel power than China.
- DODGING NET-ZERO: The world’s biggest miner, Australian giant BHP, has backtracked on climate action by halting or delaying projects to cut “vast” amounts of emissions, according to a Guardian investigation.
- SOLAR SLIP: China’s new solar installations dropped for a fourth straight month, reflecting weakening domestic demand, said Bloomberg.
- NO LOGGING: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell last year to its lowest level since 2019, according to a new report, said Agence France-Presse.
- EXECUTIVE ACTION: Puerto Rico’s governor announced a state of emergency to fight a surge in coastal erosion, citing the need to protect natural resources and vulnerable communities, reported the Associated Press.
Four million
The number of homes in the UK with air conditioning, double the figure from three years ago, reported the Guardian. There are 29m households in the UK.
Latest climate research
- Carbon Brief will soon be launching a new fortnightly newsletter focused on climate research. Sign up for free today.
- LGBTQ+ households in the US are “significantly more likely” to face energy poverty and insecurity than the general population | Energy Research & Social Science
- Global rice-paddy greenhouse gas emissions have doubled over the past six decades | Nature Food
- Vegetation greening and human-caused warming are the “main drivers” of a surge in flash floods over the last decade | Science Advances
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured

A Carbon Brief investigation has shed light on the impact of weather-related flooding on National Health Service (NHS) facilities across the UK. At least 67 NHS hospital wards, departments and other sites have been forced to temporarily close or relocate due to weather-related flooding. The chart above shows sites of weather-related flooding incidents at NHS facilities. The size of the circles indicates the number of incidents reported at each site.
Spotlight
How solar mini-grids can ‘help boost’ Nigeria’s economy
This week, Carbon Brief covers a new report on Nigeria’s solar mini-grid industry.
Amid the impact of the US-Iran war on the Nigerian economy, a new report has argued that solar-mini grids can help to reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels and create more than 200,000 jobs.
In Nigeria, Africa’s third-largest economy, the war has led to an increase in energy prices and a decrease in petrol consumption. Petrol is one of the country’s main sources of transport and household fuel. According to one estimate, prices have surged by up to 40% since the conflict commenced in February.
Although the Nigerian treasury has benefited from rising crude oil prices – the country is a major exporter of oil and gas – the impact has been most visible on the wider population.
Rising energy prices “have affected the purchasing power of workers”, Agnes Funmi Sessi, a labour union leader in Lagos, told Carbon Brief.
However, scaling the deployment of solar “mini-grids” could help the country move away from fossil fuels, stimulate rural economies and improve livelihoods, according to the new report authored by the thinktank, the Africa Policy Research Institute.
“We estimate that, by deploying over 10,000 mini-grids, the sector could create 212,688 direct full-time informal and productive-use jobs across the off-grid and under-grid market segments,” the report said.
A nascent industry
Solar “mini-grids” are small-scale, localised electricity generation and distribution systems powered by solar panels.
The report positioned Nigeria’s mini-grid sector as one of the fastest-growing in Africa, with the country having just 11 mini-grids in 2015 and 155 by 2024, along with at least 42 active developers.
Many of the companies within the sector are young and apply novel local techniques in their deployment of solar technology, the report said.
However, access to finance remains a huge barrier. According to the report, the sector may require up to $8bn to connect 35.4 million people to mini-grids.
“Most Nigerians want solar power in their homes, but it is a capital intensive business for vendors and customers,” Dr Ben Iheagwara, a renewable energy entrepreneur and policy analyst, told Carbon Brief.
The report urged the Nigerian government and its international partners to “attract private capital by de-risking investments and ensuring regulatory clarity and long-term planning”.
Other key recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders include investment in skills development and paying attention to the gender gap.
Powering rural communities
Many rural communities, which make up about 37% of the country, are disconnected from the national grid system, so often have to generate their own electricity through mini-grid systems.
According to Nigeria’s electricity regulator, NERC, a mini-grid is defined as a power generating system with an installed capacity of up to 10 megawatts.
A mini-grid can be powered by fossil fuels such as diesel or petrol, but solar power is now considered a cheaper and cleaner source.
With more than 80 million people lacking access to electricity in Nigeria, solar mini-grids are increasingly viewed as the lowest-cost electrification solution, the report said.
Watch, read, listen
MOVING FORWARD: The Energy Transition Show dug into electricity reform in South Africa, discussing the country’s coal legacy and the role of renewables.
ENERGY POVERTY: In an opinion article for Project Syndicate, executive director of the African Climate Foundation, Saliem Fakir, argued that the energy transition in emerging and developing economies is driven by economics and security rather than emissions targets.
VANISHING CITY: BBC News reported on a coastal community in Nigeria where the ocean has “already swallowed more than half of the town”.
Coming up
- 31 May: Colombia presidential elections
- 31 May-5 June: Global Environment Facility council meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan
- 2-5 June: The Venice Agreement for Peatlands workshop, Kisumu, Kenya
Pick of the jobs
- National Oceanography Centre, engagement assistant (external communications) | Salary: £28,254. Location: Southampton, UK
- Dangote Industries, decarbonisation specialist | Salary: Unknown. Location: Lagos, Nigeria
- City of New York, chief decarbonization officer | Salary: $261,469. Location: New York City
- Climate Central, writer and associate editor | Salary: $72,000-$75,000. Location: US (Remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Q&A: How can African electricity access power jobs not just lightbulbs?
At the African Development Bank (AfDB) annual meetings this week, several African leaders called for investments in electricity infrastructure which go beyond lighting homes to powering economies.
Applauding the AfDB for its energy programmes like Mission 300 – which aims to provide electricity access to 300 million Africans by 2030 – the Central African Republic’s President Faustin-Archange Touadera said that without power supply “we will not be able to achieve development”.
Speaking alongside him, the Republic of Congo’s President Denis Sassou Nguesso echoed this, saying that “as we need to help our people to turn towards agriculture, to turn towards livestock rearing, we also need to provide power to them.”
As the Mission 300 initiative advances, attention is increasingly shifting from simply connecting households to ensuring that electricity access translates into economic opportunities and livelihoods. That shift is driving the launch of a new Centre of Excellence for Productive Use of Energy being developed under Mission 300 by the philanthropically funded Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP).
In an interview with Climate Home News, Carol Koech, GEAPP’s vice president for Africa, said the initiative is designed to ensure that electrification supports income generation, agriculture and local economic development rather than only basic household access.
Q: What is the Centre of Excellence for Productive Use of Energy aiming to achieve with Mission 300?
A: Mission 300 is increasingly being seen as a job platform and so the role of the Centre of Excellence in translating those electricity connections to jobs. So we want the centre to do four things. First, as a delivery engine, which enables countries to embed a cross-institutional advisor that supports the electrification components, but also other components that are happening in the country.
Second, we want the centre to be an innovation and strategy hub. Today, there’s really no place where you can go to find the state of the industry for productive use of energy across the globe, and we want to make the centre of excellence the place where you can go and get information about what technologies are available, where deployment is happening and how much is being deployed.

(Photo: Lighting Global/SunCulture/World Bank)
The third pillar is to coordinate and mobilise capital. We anticipate the centre coordinating internally within the ecosystem but also mobilising additional financing to help productivity. The last piece is how to scale businesses, enterprises and partnerships around this centre because we anticipate that as we grow this space, new industries will emerge and those industries will need to be supported.
Q: Why is productive use of energy becoming important under Mission 300?
A: Mission 300 gave us a bigger platform to demonstrate that energy is truly an enabler for economic development. It’s not sufficient to just provide a connection, but it is required that that connection truly translates to economic development for the communities that benefit.
We shouldn’t bring electricity and then start thinking about what people can do with it. We need to think about both at the same time and ensure electricity arrives together with the things that will make a difference in people’s lives. Historically, we’ve brought electricity and imagined a miracle would happen, but we know that hasn’t been the case.
The question is how to ensure universal access in the cheapest way while still transforming communities. Some mini-grids have been deployed in places where demand is extremely low, making them too expensive to sustain. But when mini-grids are paired with productive uses, the economics start to change. If businesses currently running on fossil fuel generators move to solar or renewable energy, operating costs fall and the business case for mini-grids becomes much stronger.
Q: How could this work in practice for agriculture and rural communities?
A: I’ll give you a practical example in our pilot country Zambia. Zambia has two programmes, they have the ASCENT programme for energy access and they also have the Zambia agribusiness and trade platform (ZATP). Some of the components of the ZATP programme – which is an agri-business program to help farmers to be productive – have a productive use component but don’t have an energy supply component. So we’re offering things like mills, processing facilities, irrigation and others. In some parts of Zambia, these productive use equipment has been supplied but has not been powered, so communities are not benefiting from that.
So the whole point is if we coordinate where the agribusiness programme is deployed together with where the energy access programme is deployed and layer those two programmes together in one place, then you could solve the energy access problem and solve productive use together and therefore have really meaningful outcomes for communities.
Q: How will the centre help both households and small businesses use electricity productively?
A: The question on whether we should electrify households or businesses is neither here nor there. We need to electrify all. The argument is really once we electrify businesses, the owners of those businesses will be able to pay what they need for their households as well as increase production for their businesses.
Electricity consumption is usually an indicator of economic development and by pushing productive use into households, especially where households are also smallholder farmers, the question becomes: how can electricity access translate to additional economic development for them? If you are connected onto a mini-grid, then you can actually use that connection to run irrigation, put in a dryer, or a cold storage system, whatever you require to improve your income but the fact that you have energy means that you can access productive use. Now, we need to ask ourselves how do these farmers or these households then get access to these appliances, because that’s another barrier.
Q&A: Will subsidy cuts for Chinese clean-tech exports hurt Africa’s solar boom?
The cost of these appliances is usually extremely high, and when you have programmes such as the ZATP running in Zambia, that’s already a public funding approach to making these appliances available and potentially reachable for farmers, either at household level, at farm level or at community level.
Q: How does this complement the already existing Mission 300 national energy compacts designed by countries?
A: Each of the national energy compacts have a productive use component, a pillar that talks about distributed renewable energy, productive use, and clean cooking. This is actually complementing the work of the countries, and this centre is like an available support, back office for countries to tap into as they implement their national energy compacts, if they have specific requirements and support for that pillar three.
So the advisers that will be embedded into countries, their role is to coordinate within country programs that are running where energy could make a difference. The advisers will be sourced from the country and so they will make sure that the donor money is coordinated to benefit the country fully. Their role will include going to ministries of agriculture or any related ministries and understanding where they are prioritising programmes that require electrification. In many cases, programmes and money have already been allocated, but this component is about how do we deploy it in a way that it actually truly brings a difference, so those advisers will do that.
Q: How will the centre address financing and private sector investment challenges?
A: What we’re really looking at is different financing mechanisms. In the past, we have provided subsidies and results-based financing to suppliers, distributors and manufacturers to help create markets for productive-use appliances. I see this as one mechanism the centre could use, but the bigger opportunity is aligning public funding across different programmes so that more of it can support productive uses, either through direct funding or subsidies.
Nigerians bet on solar as global oil shock hits wallets and power supplies
When it comes to private sector investment, the reality is that Africa’s energy sector still faces serious constraints. Most private investment has gone into power generation, particularly through independent power producers, and even then that has only been possible in places where the off-takers, usually utilities, are bankable.
To unlock more private capital, countries need the right policies, reforms and regulations, but even more importantly, utilities must become financially viable. If the off-taker is not bankable, then the project is not bankable.
Another major question is how to attract private investment into transmission infrastructure. There are different models being explored, but the reality is that public funding alone is not sufficient to achieve Mission 300, so finding new ways to mobilise private capital will be critical.
The post Q&A: How can African electricity access power jobs not just lightbulbs? appeared first on Climate Home News.
Q&A: How can African electricity access power jobs not just lightbulbs?
Climate Change
AI boom means US is now ‘investing more’ in fossil-fuel power than China
The “data-centre boom” is driving a surge in gas investment in the US, pushing its fossil-power spending ahead of China, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
A rapid expansion of data centres across the nation is at the heart of the US tech sector’s plans to continue “dominat[ing]” the global artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
High demand for electricity to power these data centres has led to companies rushing to build new gas-fired power plants across the country.
This trend, combined with “soaring” gas-turbine prices, drove a threefold increase in US gas‑power investment in 2025 – and the IEA expects this to continue throughout 2026.
As the chart below shows, Chinese investment in coal- and gas-fired power is expected to drop this year, amid domestic policy changes and the Iran war sending gas prices spiralling.
Together, these trends mean the IEA expects US investment in fossil-fuelled power plants to overtake China’s in 2026.

The IEA’s latest world energy investment report shows that spending on renewables and electricity grids continues to dominate at the global scale.
In the US, Trump administration policies such as the phase-out of tax credits for renewables has led to the IEA revising its forecast for new wind and solar power downwards.
At the same time, US electricity demand is expected to rise by an average of 2% per year from 2026 to 2030, with data centres contributing half of the overall increase.
This is leading to what the IEA calls an “AI-driven push” to build new gas-power plants in the US, the world’s largest data-centre market and largest gas producer.
Globally, orders for new gas-power plants increased to 130 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 – a 25-year high – and US demand was a “major factor” in this, according to the IEA.
Much of the demand is coming from tech companies in the US seeking to bypass grid connection queues by building “captive” gas-power plants.
As the chart below shows, since the start of 2025 these US captive data centres alone have signed off on more investment in new gas turbines than any country in the world – aside from the US itself.

Overall, investment in grid upgrades, power equipment and electricity generation to support the buildout of data-centre infrastructure around the world hit $105bn in 2025, according to the IEA.
This is more than the total invested in the energy sector across the whole of Africa – a continent where more than 600 million people do not have access to electricity.
The IEA notes that strong demand for gas-power plants for data centres in the US – and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East – is “limiting the availability of turbines for near-term deployment elsewhere in the world”.
The agency also points out that as the tech sector becomes a “major energy investor”, accounting for around 40% of all corporate power-purchase agreements, it is also “underpinning momentum” for emerging clean technologies, such as small modular nuclear reactors and advanced geothermal.
The post AI boom means US is now ‘investing more’ in fossil-fuel power than China appeared first on Carbon Brief.
AI boom means US is now ‘investing more’ in fossil-fuel power than China
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