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As global temperatures rise, vast swathes of the global population are experiencing heat extremes that they have never faced before.
In some parts of the world, exposure to extreme heat is breaching survival limits for even the healthiest people. Heat-related deaths have increased rapidly in recent decades.
But the risks of extreme heat are even more acute for certain groups of people. Those most vulnerable include newborns, infants and children, those with preexisting medical conditions, including certain disabilities, the over 65s and workers who work outside or in a high heat indoor setting.
Despite these risks, our new research – published in the International Journal of Biometeorology – shows that vulnerable groups are being overlooked in studies of heat stress.
For early warning systems to be effective during heat extremes, it is crucial that appropriate thresholds are established for those most at risk.
Heat stress metrics
Heat stress is the build-up of body heat generated either internally by muscle use or externally by the environment. Research shows that the risks and impacts of heat stress are rising as the global climate warms.
Certain groups are typically more vulnerable to heat stress either because they are more exposed to heat – such as outdoor workers – or they have a physical limit in their ability to thermoregulate – that is, cool their body down – such as the elderly and young children.
A key metric to quantify heat stress is “wet-bulb globe temperature”. It has a long history as an international standard – originally developed by the US navy in the 1950s to indicate safe heat levels for military training.
Wet-bulb globe temperature has three components:
- Wet-bulb temperature, a measure of temperature that takes humidity and wind into account.
- Globe temperature, a measure of heat stress from direct sunlight.
- Air temperature.
Together, these components indicate a likelihood of an individual experiencing heat stress when specific thresholds are met.
Vulnerable groups overlooked
In our paper, we assess 931 peer-reviewed studies that use wet-bulb globe temperature to investigate heat stress thresholds for different population groups.
We find that the body of literature on wet-bulb globe temperature has grown substantially since the first study was published in December 1957.
The charts below show how those studies are divided by decade and sex (left) and by age group (right).
Of those 931 papers, 257 explored the differences due to sex and the majority focused on males (154).
This highlights a sex-related bias; however, this can somewhat be explained by the split in occupations where, traditionally, males end up in jobs that have clearer links to extreme heat exposure.
Only three of the 257 papers studied pregnant women and only one assessed other aspects of female health.
This is despite pregnant and postpartum women being a particularly vulnerable group. Experts in medicine, human thermal physiology and climate science have found a strong connection between extreme heat exposure and a range of negative birth outcomes, including preterm birth, low birth weight, cognitive deficits and even stillbirth.
Where the effects of age were considered (in 556 papers), most studies were conducted on adults (443) of 25-55 years of age and younger adults of 18-25 (48).
Very few studies focused on children, with five considering children of between one and five years old, just one focused on newborns up to 28 days old, and no studies of babies between one month and one year old.
For older adults, only three studies considered those 55-65 years old and four of those 65 and above. No studies placed an exclusive focus on elderly and/or older females, although women have a longer life expectancy than men.
Appropriate thresholds
In order to build a successful early warning system for extreme heat, it is necessary to identify appropriate thresholds for when people are at risk. Timely warnings can then help protect vulnerable groups by giving them time to take action.
In 2022, several UN agencies launched an “early warnings for all” initiative. This included a target to ensure that everyone in the world is protected by early warning systems for four types of extreme weather event – including heatwaves – by 2027.
However, there are many barriers to making sure that such a system is effective and properly supported by other policy measures.
One is that the wet-bulb globe temperature threshold proposed by the international standard organisation (specifically, ISO 7243:2017) only allows for different thresholds based on acclimatisation – that is, how much a person is used to their environment.
It takes a healthy individual around two weeks to acclimatise to a new thermal environment and those who are athletic often have a higher heat tolerance. (Although limits do exist, in a similar way to low oxygen at high altitudes.)
As we have described above, there has been a lot of research into appropriate thresholds for different groups of people. However, much of this understanding comes from studies on athletics.
In addition, as we have shown above, vulnerable groups are chronically underrepresented across these studies.
This is illustrated by the charts below, which show the heat thresholds estimated by the studies we have reviewed according to sex (top-left), age (top-right), clothing (bottom-left) and acclimatisation (bottom-right). Each dot represents a heat threshold estimate and the boxes and whiskers indicate the range across all the results.
The charts highlight how more research into thresholds is needed for vulnerable groups, particularly children, the elderly and older adults. For example, research in Europe has shown that elderly women are more likely to die during a heatwave.
When assessing the reception and response to extreme heat warnings, the perceived threat of danger is the strongest factor in why people do or do not heed them. This means it is even more important to fully understand which groups are most at risk.
By tailoring early warning systems to individuals needs and requirements, effective warnings can promote societal resilience by protecting the most exposed and vulnerable. And targeted heat thresholds are fundamental to this.
The post Guest post: Heat stress thresholds are not designed for vulnerable groups appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: Heat stress thresholds are not designed for vulnerable groups
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Prepared by a coalition of nine Western Australian union, industry, conservation, and community organisations—including UnionsWA, the Conservation Council WA, and the Smart Energy Council—the WA Clean Energy, Jobs & Industry Plan provides a practical roadmap to transform Western Australia into a clean energy powerhouse while creating thousands of secure local jobs.
Western Australia stands at a pivotal crossroads: lead the global clean energy economy or watch investment, future industries, and secure jobs go elsewhere. The WA Clean Energy, Jobs & Industry Plan outlines a transformative blueprint to harness the state’s world-class solar and wind resources. Discover how legislated renewable targets, green iron manufacturing, and a dedicated regional training strategy can generate tens of thousands of local jobs, lower household bills, and build a resilient, net-zero future for all Western Australians.
WA needs a clear and forward-thinking plan if it is going to become a competitive renewable energy powerhouse and maintain its economic strength through the energy transition.
“Western Australians know a faster renewable energy transition will lower their household expenses and prevent harmful climate pollution. But the community also needs clear direction to ensure this transition will create jobs, lower costs and not cause undue environmental harm.
“Here, sectors representing a broad range of interests have laid the groundwork for those outcomes, clearly outlining what is needed to create a future for WA that is good for the environment, for the climate, for workers and for the economy.
Summary
The WA Clean Energy, Jobs & Industry Plan sets out a strategic roadmap to position Western Australia as a global clean energy superpower while creating thousands of secure local jobs.
The report establishes three overarching goals:
- Creating local employment.
- Maintaining industrial competitiveness.
- Lowering household energy costs
To realize this vision, the framework details actionable measures to follow on from the recent WA Government announcement of a 75% Renewable Energy Target by 2031 for the South West Interconnected System. This includes developing a statewide Renewable Energy Target, coordinating statewide workforce and training pipelines, strategically planning regional infrastructure to safeguard high-value biodiversity and cultural heritage, and ensuring equitable benefit-sharing through household electrification incentives and First Nations equity partnerships. Ultimately, the plan highlights that establishing clear policy and regulatory certainty will unlock lower energy bills, boost power reliability, and secure the state’s global competitiveness in emerging green commodity export markets.
Key Findings
- Statewide Renewable Energy Target and Emissions Reduction Targets: The report calls for a statewide RET and 1.5°C aligned emission reduction targets to remove policy risk, lower capital costs, and attract clean energy investment.
- Transformative Job Creation: Accelerating the transition offers massive employment prospects, including up to 8,800 solar and battery jobs by 2050, as well as 24,000 ongoing and 11,000 construction jobs in a commercial green iron industry.
- Industrial Electrification & Competitiveness: Requiring large gas users to adopt binding electrification timetables and providing concessional financing will protect existing energy-intensive manufacturers from rising energy costs and impending domestic gas shortfalls.
- Green Commodity Export Leadership: Western Australia can build new export markets in green iron, green ammonia, and offshore oil/gas decommissioning by constructing shared common-user infrastructure and setting dedicated Green Commodity Export Targets.
- Coordinated Workforce & Training Pipeline: To address critical skill shortages the plan recommends establishing a WA Clean Energy Jobs Plan 2050, three regional training hubs, and dedicated pathways for female and under-represented apprentices.
- Environmental Safeguards & Community Benefits: Fast-tracked development must be paired with State Planning Policies that avoid high-biodiversity and cultural heritage lands, mandate new data centres to run on additional renewable power, and deliver household electrification rebates and First Nations equity partnerships.
What you can do
WA has an opportunity to lead on sustainable, clean energy and associated industries. You can help by:
- Sending an email to Environment Minister Murray Watt and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, calling on them to reject Browse.
- Sharing this story to help more Australians understand what’s at stake.
- Encouraging your friends and family to take action.
Countries have completed the first “global review” of their progress towards reversing nature loss by 2030 at the COP17 biodiversity talks in Yerevan, Armenia.
The review “notes with deep concern” that, unless action is “rapidly accelerated”, the goal to reverse nature loss and meet a set of 23 targets by 2030 “will not be achieved”.
It “urges” countries to accelerate action, including by “increased ambition in addressing the gaps”.
Much of the discussions in Yerevan focused on how to raise the necessary funds to help developing countries protect nature.
Some major economies pushed to expand the range of nations that are expected to provide finance, with countries agreeing at the end of the two weeks of talks that non-donors that want to contribute can “signal interest” before COP18.
This came after developed countries failed to meet a target to significantly ramp up nature finance over the last few years.
It also came as a landmark fund agreed at COP16 in Colombia to pay communities for the genetic resources derived from nature stands nearly empty two years on.
The Yerevan talks marked the halfway point of the “Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework” (GBF), the “Paris Agreement for nature” first made in 2022 and due to be achieved by 2030.
During the nearly 12-hour-long final plenary, countries voted for Quito, Ecuador, to host the COP18 nature talks, w