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Experts Say China’s Emissions Peak Is Near: How EVs and Renewables are Playing a Big Part

China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, is making notable strides in its fight against climate change by stabilizing carbon emissions. Driven by the rapid adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs), experts are cautiously optimistic about the nation’s progress toward its climate goals. 

However, challenges remain as Beijing balances economic growth with its ambitions for net zero.

Electric Vehicles Surge as China Leads Global Market

China’s green transition is advancing faster than expected. A new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) highlights a remarkable shift in optimism. 

  • In a survey of 44 experts, 44% believe China’s carbon emissions have already peaked or will peak by 2025, a sharp increase from just 15% in 2022.

The country’s renewable energy and EV sectors have seen explosive growth. For three consecutive months in 2024, more than half of all new cars sold in China were electric. 

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, China continues to lead the global EV market, with October PEV (plug-in electric vehicle) sales reaching a record 1.2 million units. From July to October, PEVs in China consistently outperformed internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, achieving an average of 53% market share. 

plug in EV sales, China leads

Pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) remain dominant, though their share has fallen to 58% in 2024, down from 66% in 2023, as range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) gain traction. REEVs, featuring smaller batteries and a small ICE for recharging, highlight evolving consumer preferences.

China-made BEVs are also expanding in Europe despite a 27% EU tariff on Chinese imports. Negotiations between the EU and China are underway to address tariffs and stabilize EV pricing, underscoring China’s growing influence on the global EV landscape.

This surge underscores China’s commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, hydropower generation, which had previously declined due to droughts, has recovered, contributing to a slight drop in emissions since early 2024.

However, emissions remain “stabilized” in Q3 2024 rather than in a structural decline as shown by Carbon Brief’s analysis below. This is despite increased coal power usage, largely offset by a surge in renewable energy.

China carbon emissions Q3 2024

Heavily polluting industries, such as construction, continue to pose significant challenges. The sector’s slowdown has helped offset emissions in the short term, but long-term solutions will require a comprehensive overhaul of China’s industrial landscape.

China falling emissions from oil and construction

Global Leadership Amid Challenges: China at COP29

China’s leadership on climate action has become even more critical amid shifting global dynamics. The United States, under Donald Trump’s re-election, has retreated from climate leadership, with plans to exit the Paris Agreement once again. 

At COP29 in Baku, China’s delegation, led by climate envoy Liu Zhenmin, took center stage as other nations sought its support for ambitious climate action.

During a side event at COP29, Liu Zhenmin received applause for reaffirming the country’s commitment to global climate efforts, calling climate change “a pressing global challenge that demands a collective response.” The event also marked the continuation of a methane-tracking agreement initially forged under Joe Biden’s administration.

China’s growing role on the international stage is encouraging. However, domestic challenges could undermine its ability to meet global expectations.

Economic Growth Versus Decarbonization

China’s dual targets of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2060 are ambitious but achievable with the right strategies. Yet, meeting these goals will require navigating significant economic and policy challenges.

The world’s largest carbon polluter pledged to reduce its carbon intensity—the amount of carbon emitted per unit of GDP—by 18% between 2020 and 2025.

However, current trends suggest it may fall short. High-tech manufacturing, a key driver of economic growth, is more energy-intensive than sectors like household consumption and services.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Crea, points out that even if China’s GDP grows by 5% in 2025, the country would need an unprecedented 9.7% reduction in emissions to meet its carbon intensity target. She particularly noted that: 

“This scenario would make meeting global climate targets all but impossible.”

Such a dramatic shift will require accelerated deployment of renewable energy and a strategic reorientation of economic development, Myllyvirta added.

Renewables Boom: A Climate Balancing Act

Despite these challenges, China’s renewable energy boom offers hope. The country has been a global leader in solar and wind energy installations, and its investments in clean energy infrastructure are unparalleled. 

In 2023, China installed more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined.

More notably, clean energy sources accounted for a record 44% of China’s electricity generation in May 2024. Solar power saw the largest increase, with a 78% year-on-year rise, followed by significant recoveries in hydropower and modest gains in wind energy.

China renewable growth, wind and solar Q3 2024

This growth outpaced the rise in electricity demand, leading to a decline in coal’s share to a historic low of 53%. These trends contributed to a 3.6% reduction in CO2 emissions from China’s power sector and kept overall emissions flat.

This emissions stability reflects China’s energy transition and highlights the potential for renewables to curb emissions growth as economic activity increases.

Electric vehicle adoption has also been transformative. Government subsidies and supportive policies have made China the world’s largest EV market. This trend, coupled with advancements in battery technology and charging infrastructure, positions the nation as a leader in sustainable transportation.

However, policy clarity remains crucial. Experts emphasize the need for a detailed roadmap outlining how China will meet its 2030 and 2060 climate targets. A revised emissions trajectory under the Paris Agreement, expected by February 2025, will be a critical indicator of Beijing’s climate ambitions.

China’s success or failure in reducing emissions will have far-reaching implications for global climate targets. As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the country’s actions are pivotal in limiting global warming to 1.5°C. With COP29 setting the stage for deeper international collaboration, China’s next moves will be crucial in shaping the path toward a more sustainable future.

The post Experts Say China’s Emissions Peak Is Near: How EVs and Renewables are Playing a Big Part appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments

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Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.

1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project

Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.

This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.

CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.

2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain

The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?

Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.

Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.

The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.

3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply

WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.

The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.

The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.

The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.

4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward

Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?

Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.

SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.

For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.

Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.

5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions

Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.

Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.

Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.

A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.

6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision

Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.

Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.

Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.

This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.

Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.

Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.

Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
  2. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
  3. Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
  4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
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Carbon Footprint

How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do

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A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.

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Carbon Footprint

EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026

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EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.

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