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Emissions Futures Rally: Insights from Xpansiv's CBL Platform

Explore the latest trends and developments in emissions futures trading, powered by data from Xpansiv Data and Analytics. Dive into the significant rally witnessed in CME Group’s CBL emissions futures, along with the surge in trading activity for lithium contracts.

Xpansiv offers robust market data from CBL, the world’s largest spot environmental commodity exchange, including daily and historical bids, offers, and transaction data for various environmental commodities traded on the CBL platform. 

This spot data is supplemented by forward prices from premier market intermediaries and aggregated registry statistics and ratings from leading providers.

Emissions Futures Surge at CME Group’s CBL Platform

CME Group’s CBL emissions futures experienced a significant rally of over 25% for December CBL N-GEO and CBL GEO futures prices. These contracts settled at $1.16 and $0.62, respectively, marking notable increases of 26.5% and 27.5% compared to the previous week. 

emissions futures Xpansiv CBL
Source: Xpansiv

The surge was particularly noticeable with CBL N-GEO futures jumping 12.0% on substantial volume, reaching nearly 2.2 million metric tons. However, spot prices remained relatively stable, with N-GEO closing at $0.49 (down 2.0% for the week) and GEO ending unchanged at $0.66.

Spot trading activity remained subdued, with a notable block of new vintage India solar credits settling at $1.90. Offers on the CBL central limit order book included various renewable credits from different regions. These include the following offers: 

  • vintage 2021 VCS 2250 Pakistan Delta Blue credits, 
  • vintage 2020 VCS 3279 Bangladesh cookstoves, and 
  • vintage 2022 VCS 2604 China Waste Handling Credits, among others.

The total trading volume for CBL emissions futures reached 3.1 million tons, with the spot exchange adding 84,722 tons. Three-quarters of these were settled through the mart’s portfolio of Global Emissions Offset™ contracts.

In the REC market, activity primarily centered around PJM markets, with Pennsylvania tier 1 v2024 is experiencing the most volume. Other notable trades included Maryland solar v2024 and Virginia solar v2023 credits as seen below.

REC activity Xpansiv CBLThe majority of the week’s total REC volume (87%) comprised bilateral trades settled through CBL’s same-day settlement infrastructure.

On the CBL screen, New Jersey solar credits stood out with over 6,000 credits matched in numerous transactions at $208. Additionally, the California Low Carbon Fuels Standard (LCFS) contract saw 15,000 credits settled, and 1,500 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) allowance contracts were exchanged.

Lithium CME Trading Boom

Another rising commodity witnessing a trading surge in the CME Group is lithium. 

Despite declining battery metal prices, trading of lithium in CME’s trading platform draws increased attention from funds. 

Open interest in the contract reached a record high of 24,328 contracts in the first quarter. This uptick shows increased liquidity within the contract and suggests a maturing market for the lithium industry.

CME lithium trading price

The growth in open interest follows a robust year in 2023, driven by arbitrage trading between China and the US. China’s introduction of its lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange further contributed to trading activity. This underscores the growing importance of lithium derivatives markets for industry participants to manage price risks.

Despite challenges in the industry, such as an over 80% decline in lithium prices from their record high in November 2022, the surge in open interest provides assurance to funds and financial participants. It gives them confidence in trading the contract, enabling them to enter and exit positions as needed, even in the face of adverse price movements.

Moreover, the growing interest from Asia-based funds reflects the increasing appeal of lithium as an investment opportunity.

As emissions futures experience notable price movements and trading volumes, stakeholders navigate dynamic markets with insights from comprehensive spot firm data provided by Xpansiv. Meanwhile, the surge in open interest for lithium contracts signals growing investor interest and maturity in the lithium market, despite price challenges.

The post Emissions Futures Rally by Over 25%: Insights from Xpansiv’s CBL Platform appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments

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Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.

1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project

Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.

This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.

CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.

2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain

The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?

Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.

Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.

The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.

3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply

WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.

The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.

The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.

The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.

4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward

Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?

Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.

SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.

For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.

Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.

5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions

Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.

Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.

Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.

A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.

6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision

Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.

Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.

Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.

This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.

Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.

Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.

Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
  2. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
  3. Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
  4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
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Carbon Footprint

How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do

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A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.

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Carbon Footprint

EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026

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EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.

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