A lengthy drought that caused widespread disruption to commercial ships passing through the Panama Canal in 2023 would have been “unlikely” without the influence of El Niño, according to a rapid attribution study.
Last year was Panama’s third driest on record. The low rainfall caused water levels in Gatún Lake – a crucial part of the country’s internationally important canal and key fresh water supply for millions of people – to drop to record-low levels.
Authorities reduced shipping through the canal to conserve the lake’s fresh water, resulting in queues of ships waiting for weeks to cross the canal. As shipments of everything from fruit to gas were delayed and rerouted, knock-on effects rippled across the globe.
The new study, by the World Weather Attribution service, did not find a significant long-term drying trend in rainfall over Panama. However, it noted that since 1900, four of the five driest years in the region have occurred in El Niño years,
El Niño reduced last year’s rainfall by about 8%, the authors find.
With the canal’s water use expected to more than double by 2050, the study warns that authorities “may need to re-introduce shipping restrictions to safeguard drinking water supplies, particularly in El Niño years”.
Shipping backlog
Opened in 1914, the Panama Canal – an engineered waterway connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans – is a cornerstone for global marine shipping. Around 14,000 ships pass through the canal every year, accounting for 5% of all global maritime trade.
Using the canal, rather than travelling around the southern tip of South America, ships can cut some 13,000km off their journey. Ships pay a toll for using the canal, which adds more than $2.5bn to Panama’s economy every year.
Gatún Lake is pivotal for the canal’s operation. This artificial, rain-fed lake sits near the centre of the canal, around 26 metres above sea level. Ships travelling into the canal pass through a series of locks, each of which fills with water to raise the ship up to the level of the lake. After travelling through the lake, another series of locks lower the ships back down to sea level.
For every ship that moves through the canal – a process which takes between eight and 10 hours – around 200m litres of fresh lake water is used, most of which is flushed out to sea.
Panama is the fifth wettest country in the world and sees most of its rainfall in its May-December rainy season.
However, total rainfall in 2023 was 30% lower than average. October was especially dry, recording 41% less rainfall than usual.
As a result, water levels in the rainfall-fed Gatún Lake reached a record low in the second half of 2023.
The map below shows water levels in Gatún Lake since 1965, where each line represents one year. The solid black line indicates 2023-24, while the dashed line shows projected lake water levels until mid-June 2024.
Under normal circumstances, the Panama Canal allows 36 “transits” every day. However, as lake levels dropped, the Panama Canal Authority (APC) began taking measures to conserve water. It reduced the number of daily crossings first to 32, then 31. And finally in November 2023 it announced that only 25 crossings would be allowed per day.
Ships began waiting in line for weeks to cross the canal, often paying millions of dollars to jump the queue if another ship with a booked reservation dropped out. By late August, around 135 ships were waiting to cross – 50% more than normal.
Around the world, shipments of everything from food to fuel were delayed.
Rainfall trends
The Panama Canal watershed is a series of natural and artificial rivers, sub-basins and lakes covering some 3,000 square kilometres on either side of Gatún Lake. According to the WWA study, all of the water used by the Panama Canal comes from this area.
The study authors say a network of around 65 weather stations operate in and around the watershed, providing some of the best rainfall records across the entirety of central America and the Caribbean.
To put Panama’s drought into its historical context and determine how unlikely it was, the authors analysed a timeseries of rainfall around the catchment of Gatún Lake in the 2023 rainy season, between May and December.
The map below shows the 2023 rainy season compared to the 1990-2020 average. Brown indicates that 2023 was drier than average and green that it was wetter. Gatún Lake is shaded grey and the study area is outlined in red.
Dr Clair Barnes – a researcher at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute and author on the study – told a press briefing that there was some evidence of an overall drying trend in some of the stations, while others saw a wetting trend.
Overall, she said the study finds a slight drying trend, but notes the high uncertainty in this finding. She adds:
“We’re not sure exactly what is causing that drying trend or if it is an anomaly. Future trends in a warming climate are also uncertain.”
The authors investigated the impact of El Niño – a global weather phenomenon that originates in the Pacific Ocean – on rainfall in Panama.
During El Niño years, a weakening in the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific brings warm ocean temperatures to the eastern Pacific, off the coast of South America. In Panama, El Niño years are linked with below-average rainfall.
During La Niña years, the opposite effects are seen. Both phases together are known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Steven Paton is the director of the physical monitoring programme at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and an author on the study.
He told a press briefing that 2023 was “the third driest year ever recorded [in Panama] in the 143 years that we have data”. He noted that all of the three driest years on record were recorded during an El Niño event.
The researchers find that in today’s climate, during an El Niño year, Panama has a 5% chance of seeing rainfall levels as low as those in 2023. Given the current frequency of El Niño events, this means that similar events would be expected to occur around once every 40 years in the present climate, they say.
The authors find that El Niño reduced the volume of rainfall that fell in 2023 by about 8%, compared to an ENSO-neutral year, adding that it “is unlikely that Panama could experience such a low rainy season without the influence of El Niño”.
The researchers also assess whether human-caused climate change played a role in Panama’s very low rainfall levels.
To conduct attribution studies, scientists use models to compare the world as it is today to a “counterfactual” world without climate change. This study aimed to identify any potential “signal” of climate change in Panama’s rainfall pattern.
However, only one of the climate models used in this study was able to capture rainfall patterns over the study region accurately, and the authors were unable to determine whether any trend in rainfall over the region was due to climate change.
(These findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in previous attribution studies.)
Compounding impacts
The Panama drought shows how changes in weather conditions, such as rainfall patterns, can interact with other hazards.
Maja Vahlberg is a risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and author on the study. She told the press briefing that disruptions to the Panama Canal interacted with those in the Suez Canal – caused by Yemen’s Houthi group attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea – to drive “compounding and cascading impacts” on global shipping patterns.
This also exacerbated the existing disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Covid pandemic.
As a backlog of ships in the Panama Canal grew, delays lengthened from days to weeks. Al Jazeera described the affected shipments:
“Bananas from Ecuador to Florida. Poultry from Chile to northern Europe. Liquid Natural Gas from the US to Asia. And virtually anything under the sun out of China.”
Around December, newspapers began to warn that shipments of Christmas goods may fail to reach retailers in time for the festive season.
Europe typically imports fresh produce from South and Central America during the winter months, with food and drink making up 77% of container shipments between the west coast of South America and Europe in 2022.
For example, Peru supplies the UK with £2bn worth of goods every year, including more than £350m of “fresh produce”. However, many ships carrying fruits, vegetables and meat from South America to Europe were stuck in the backlog, resulting in “excessive delays”.
The drought also impacted shipments of oil and gas. The US uses the canal as a major trade route for carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf coast to Asia. However, average waiting times for tankers carrying LNG north through the canal rose from eight days in July to 18 days in August.
Meanwhile, Gatún Lake also supplies drinking water for more than half of Panama’s 4.3 million people. As a result, the government was required to balance the demands of international shipping with the water usage needs of the locals.
Vahlberg told the press briefing that “Indigenous, Afro-Panamanian and some rural communities have very water-dependent livelihoods”. She explained that these communities often have “higher rates of poverty and limited access to basic services”, meaning that “even small changes in precipitation can bring disproportionate impacts on their livelihoods”.
She added that urban expansion and population growth, combined with ageing infrastructure that loses water through leaks, are putting increasing pressure on the country’s water supplies.
The study notes that by 2050, the canal’s water use is expected to be more than double 2015 levels. It warns that, in future, authorities “may need to re-introduce shipping restrictions to safeguard drinking water supplies, particularly in El Niño years”.
The post Drought behind Panama Canal’s 2023 shipping disruption ‘unlikely’ without El Niño appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Drought behind Panama Canal’s 2023 shipping disruption ‘unlikely’ without El Niño
Climate Change
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Blazing heat hits Europe
FANNING THE FLAMES: Wildfires “fanned by a heatwave and strong winds” caused havoc across southern Europe, Reuters reported. It added: “Fire has affected nearly 440,000 hectares (1,700 square miles) in the eurozone so far in 2025, double the average for the same period of the year since 2006.” Extreme heat is “breaking temperature records across Europe”, the Guardian said, with several countries reporting readings of around 40C.
HUMAN TOLL: At least three people have died in the wildfires erupting across Spain, Turkey and Albania, France24 said, adding that the fires have “displaced thousands in Greece and Albania”. Le Monde reported that a child in Italy “died of heatstroke”, while thousands were evacuated from Spain and firefighters “battled three large wildfires” in Portugal.
UK WILDFIRE RISK: The UK saw temperatures as high as 33.4C this week as England “entered its fourth heatwave”, BBC News said. The high heat is causing “nationally significant” water shortfalls, it added, “hitting farms, damaging wildlife and increasing wildfires”. The Daily Mirror noted that these conditions “could last until mid-autumn”. Scientists warn the UK faces possible “firewaves” due to climate change, BBC News also reported.
Around the world
- GRID PRESSURES: Iraq suffered a “near nationwide blackout” as elevated power demand – due to extreme temperatures of around 50C – triggered a transmission line failure, Bloomberg reported.
- ‘DIRE’ DOWN UNDER: The Australian government is keeping a climate risk assessment that contains “dire” implications for the continent “under wraps”, the Australian Financial Review said.
- EXTREME RAINFALL: Mexico City is “seeing one of its heaviest rainy seasons in years”, the Washington Post said. Downpours in the Japanese island of Kyushu “caused flooding and mudslides”, according to Politico. In Kashmir, flash floods killed 56 and left “scores missing”, the Associated Press said.
- SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION: China and Brazil agreed to “ensure the success” of COP30 in a recent phone call, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
- PLASTIC ‘DEADLOCK’: Talks on a plastic pollution treaty have failed again at a summit in Geneva, according to the Guardian, with countries “deadlocked” on whether it should include “curbs on production and toxic chemicals”.
15
The number of times by which the most ethnically-diverse areas in England are more likely to experience extreme heat than its “least diverse” areas, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- As many as 13 minerals critical for low-carbon energy may face shortages under 2C pathways | Nature Climate Change
- A “scoping review” examined the impact of climate change on poor sexual and reproductive health and rights in sub-Saharan Africa | PLOS One
- A UK university cut the carbon footprint of its weekly canteen menu by 31% “without students noticing” | Nature Food
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Factchecking Trump’s climate report
A report commissioned by the US government to justify rolling back climate regulations contains “at least 100 false or misleading statements”, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists. The report, compiled in two months by five hand-picked researchers, inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed” and misleadingly states that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”80
Spotlight
Does Xi Jinping care about climate change?
This week, Carbon Brief unpacks new research on Chinese president Xi Jinping’s policy priorities.
On this day in 2005, Xi Jinping, a local official in eastern China, made an unplanned speech when touring a small village – a rare occurrence in China’s highly-choreographed political culture.
In it, he observed that “lucid waters and lush mountains are mountains of silver and gold” – that is, the environment cannot be sacrificed for the sake of growth.
(The full text of the speech is not available, although Xi discussed the concept in a brief newspaper column – see below – a few days later.)
In a time where most government officials were laser-focused on delivering economic growth, this message was highly unusual.
Forward-thinking on environment
As a local official in the early 2000s, Xi endorsed the concept of “green GDP”, which integrates the value of natural resources and the environment into GDP calculations.
He also penned a regular newspaper column, 22 of which discussed environmental protection – although “climate change” was never mentioned.
This focus carried over to China’s national agenda when Xi became president.
New research from the Asia Society Policy Institute tracked policies in which Xi is reported by state media to have “personally” taken action.
It found that environmental protection is one of six topics in which he is often said to have directly steered policymaking.
Such policies include guidelines to build a “Beautiful China”, the creation of an environmental protection inspection team and the “three-north shelterbelt” afforestation programme.
“It’s important to know what Xi’s priorities are because the top leader wields outsized influence in the Chinese political system,” Neil Thomas, Asia Society Policy Institute fellow and report co-author, told Carbon Brief.
Local policymakers are “more likely” to invest resources in addressing policies they know have Xi’s attention, to increase their chances for promotion, he added.
What about climate and energy?
However, the research noted, climate and energy policies have not been publicised as bearing Xi’s personal touch.
“I think Xi prioritises environmental protection more than climate change because reducing pollution is an issue of social stability,” Thomas said, noting that “smoggy skies and polluted rivers” were more visible and more likely to trigger civil society pushback than gradual temperature increases.
The paper also said topics might not be linked to Xi personally when they are “too technical” or “politically sensitive”.
For example, Xi’s landmark decision for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is widely reported as having only been made after climate modelling – facilitated by former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua – showed that this goal was achievable.
Prior to this, Xi had never spoken publicly about carbon neutrality.
Prof Alex Wang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor of law not involved in the research, noted that emphasising Xi’s personal attention may signal “top” political priorities, but not necessarily Xi’s “personal interests”.
By not emphasising climate, he said, Xi may be trying to avoid “pushing the system to overprioritise climate to the exclusion of the other priorities”.
There are other ways to know where climate ranks on the policy agenda, Thomas noted:
“Climate watchers should look at what Xi says, what Xi does and what policies Xi authorises in the name of the ‘central committee’. Is Xi talking more about climate? Is Xi establishing institutions and convening meetings that focus on climate? Is climate becoming a more prominent theme in top-level documents?”
Watch, read, listen
TRUMP EFFECT: The Columbia Energy Exchange podcast examined how pressure from US tariffs could affect India’s clean energy transition.
NAMIBIAN ‘DESTRUCTION’: The National Observer investigated the failure to address “human rights abuses and environmental destruction” claims against a Canadian oil company in Namibia.
‘RED AI’: The Network for the Digital Economy and the Environment studied the state of current research on “Red AI”, or the “negative environmental implications of AI”.
Coming up
- 17 August: Bolivian general elections
- 18-29 August: Preparatory talks on the entry into force of the “High Seas Treaty”, New York
- 18-22 August: Y20 Summit, Johannesburg
- 21 August: Advancing the “Africa clean air programme” through Africa-Asia collaboration, Yokohama
Pick of the jobs
- Lancaster Environment Centre, senior research associate: JUST Centre | Salary: £39,355-£45,413. Location: Lancaster, UK
- Environmental Justice Foundation, communications and media officer, Francophone Africa | Salary: XOF600,000-XOF800,000. Location: Dakar, Senegal
- Politico, energy & climate editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels, Belgium
- EnviroCatalysts, meteorologist | Salary: Unknown. Location: New Delhi, India
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report
Climate Change
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
The specter of a “gas-for-wind” compromise between the governor and the White House is drawing the ire of residents as a deadline looms.
Hundreds of New Yorkers rallied against new natural gas pipelines in their state as a deadline loomed for the public to comment on a revived proposal to expand the gas pipeline that supplies downstate New York.
New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit
A “critical assessment” report commissioned by the Trump administration to justify a rollback of US climate regulations contains at least 100 false or misleading statements, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists.
The report – “A critical review of impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the US climate” – was published by the US Department of Energy (DoE) on 23 July, just days before the government laid out plans to revoke a scientific finding used as the legal basis for emissions regulation.
The executive summary of the controversial report inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed”.
It also states misleadingly that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”.
Compiled in just two months by five “independent” researchers hand-selected by the climate-sceptic US secretary of energy Chris Wright, the document has sparked fierce criticism from climate scientists, who have pointed to factual errors, misrepresentation of research, messy citations and the cherry-picking of data.
Experts have also noted the authors’ track record of promoting views at odds with the mainstream understanding of climate science.
Wright’s department claims the report – which is currently open to public comment as part of a 30-day review – underwent an “internal peer-review period amongst [the] DoE’s scientific research community”.
The report is designed to provide a scientific underpinning to one flank of the Trump administration’s plans to rescind a finding that serves as the legal prerequisite for federal emissions regulation. (The second flank is about legal authority to regulate emissions.)
The “endangerment finding” – enacted by the Obama administration in 2009 – states that six greenhouse gases are contributing to the net-negative impacts of climate change and, thus, put the public in danger.
In a press release on 29 July, the US Environmental Protection Agency said “updated studies and information” set out in the new report would “challenge the assumptions” of the 2009 finding.
Carbon Brief asked a wide range of climate scientists, including those cited in the “critical review” itself, to factcheck the report’s various claims and statements.
The post Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-trumps-climate-report-includes-more-than-100-false-or-misleading-claims/
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Spanish-language misinformation on renewable energy spreads online, report shows
-
Climate Change Videos2 years ago
The toxic gas flares fuelling Nigeria’s climate change – BBC News
-
Greenhouse Gases1 year ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change1 year ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Carbon Footprint1 year agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Why airlines are perfect targets for anti-greenwashing legal action
-
Renewable Energy2 months ago
US Grid Strain, Possible Allete Sale
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Some firms unaware of England’s new single-use plastic ban