Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Hurricane Melissa
‘TOTAL DEVASTATION’: Hurricane Melissa has killed at least 49 people after sweeping through the Caribbean islands of Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and Bermuda, reported Independent. Jamaica’s prime minister Andrew Holness said the storm left “total devastation”, destroying homes and infrastructure and leaving people “stranded on roofs and without power”, said BBC News. In Haiti, at least 30 people were killed in floods, Reuters added.
WARM WATERS: Melissa is tied as the strongest Atlantic hurricane to ever hit land, slamming Jamaica with winds of 185mph and fuelled by anomalously warm waters, reported the Associated Press. Fossil-fuelled climate change made the storm “four times more likely”, according to analysis cited by Agence France-Presse. Early estimates suggest infrastructure damage alone could amount to 40% of Jamaica’s gross domestic product, said the newswire.
RECORD RAINS: Elsewhere, Al Jazeera reported on major floods in central Vietnam, where the former imperial city of Huế saw record rainfall of more than 1,000mm over a 24-hour period, according to the country’s weather agency. The Associated Press reported that climate change is “driving more intense winds, heavier rainfall and shifting precipitation patterns across East Asia”.
Climate plans off track for 1.5C
‘DRASTICALLY SHORT’: The latest national climate plans will cause global emissions to drop 10% by 2035 from 2019 levels, “bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time”, but falling “drastically short” of the 60% cut needed to keep 1.5C in sight, said the Guardian. The plans – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement – were assessed by the UN in a synthesis report ahead of COP30, the publication said. The 10% cut reflects plans announced by China and the EU, in addition to formal submissions from 64 countries, according to Reuters.
OVERSHOOT ‘INEVITABLE’: UN secretary-general António Guterres said in a joint interview with the Guardian and the Amazonian publication Sumaúma that overshooting 1.5C of global warming was now “inevitable” and would have “devastating consequences”. Guterres “did not give up on the [1.5C] target”, but urged world leaders to “change course” during COP30 to ensure the “overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible to avoid tipping points like the Amazon”.
Around the world
- DELIVERY: The UK government published its “carbon budget and growth delivery” plan, outlining policies to meet its mid-2030s climate targets. Read more in Carbon Brief’s in-depth coverage of the plan.
- DEAL UNEARTHED: Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have settled a dispute over rare-earth mineral supplies during trade talks, said the Guardian. Trump described the talks as “amazing” and agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%, it added.
- AVOIDABLE DEATHS: Climate change and policy “failures” are leading to “millions” of avoidable deaths each year, according to Le Monde’s coverage of the latest Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change.
- DEFORESTATION DOWN: On the eve of hosting COP30, Brazil’s government announced an 11% drop in annual deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, the fourth consecutive annual fall and lowest deforestation rate since 2014, reported Agence France-Presse.
- DUTCH ELECTION: Democrats 66 (D66), the centrist party led by former climate minister Rob Jetten, narrowly won a snap general election in the Netherlands, said Brussels Signal.
- EU FLEXIBILITY: As the EU continues to negotiate 2040 emissions targets, the bloc is considering a “more flexible path” for industries to meet the goals, reported Reuters.
12 times
The extent to which current finance flows would have to increase to meet developing countries’ adaptation finance needs in 2035, according to the latest UN adaptation gap report covered by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- Young children in sub-Saharan Africa are 77% more at risk from malaria for every 1C temperature increase | PLOS One
- Social media use is linked to “climate anxiety, climate doom and support for radical action” | Climatic Change
- Future droughts could weaken peatlands’ ability to store carbon, creating a positive feedback cycle for climate change | Science
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Carbon Brief explored the importance of soil health for food security and climate change in a new Q&A. As the diagram above illustrates, agricultural soil is composed of four layers – known as soil horizons – containing varying quantities of minerals, organic matter, living organisms, air and water. The world’s soils have lost 133bn tonnes of carbon since the advent of agriculture around 12,000 years ago, with crop production and cattle grazing responsible in equal part.
Spotlight
Crackdowns on climate and environmental activism
This week, Carbon Brief speaks to Mary Lawlor, UN special rapporteur on human rights defenders, who led a recent report highlighting crackdowns on the rights of climate and environmental activists around the world.
Carbon Brief: Why do you see climate change as a human-rights issue?
Mary Lawlor: I don’t think there’s any doubt about climate change being a human-rights issue nowadays, because everyone can see it. It interferes with so many rights. The right to food, for example. We’ve seen the situation where drought, storms and floods interfere with food production. And then if you look at the right to life – according to the WHO, we’re currently seeing an average of 175,000 heat-related deaths per year around the world, and those numbers will increase. But we now also have advisory opinions of the ICJ, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, all of which state clearly that climate change is a reality. They see it as a human-rights crisis.
CB: What human-rights violations are being faced by climate and environmental activists around the world right now?
ML: We went to a lot of Indigenous communities in the Amazon and we saw firsthand the threats against Indigenous defenders in Brazil who are opposing carbon-credit projects in their territories, where they themselves have been reducing deforestation with success for years. Then, for example, there were smears against a lawyer in Argentina who was supporting communities in their legal fight against the extraction of lithium from their territories without their consent. And, then, you have surveillance of climate activists organising peaceful protests against new fossil-fuel projects, for example, in the Philippines. So it’s kind of like an octopus, the tentacles are reaching out.
In some of the more developed countries, like France and Spain, you have accusations of terrorism against peaceful climate-justice movements. In Germany, you had the investigation and prosecution of a climate-justice group for alleged organised crime based solely on their peaceful protests that put no human being in danger and did no harm to anyone.
CB: What are some examples that you’ve seen of good practice by governments in relation to the work of climate and environmental activists?
ML: My favourite is Brazil and MST [Landless Workers’ Movement]. They were aided in their tree-planting programme by the federal authorities, who provided helicopters and the federal highway police piloted these helicopters. Seeds of the endangered juçara palm and araucaria trees could be air-dropped over land in Paraná, after the devastating fires that took place. So that’s my absolute favourite, because it showed how a state and defenders can work together as allies to prevent destruction and even worse climate change.
CB: According to Global Witness, 413 land and environmental defenders were killed in Brazil during 2012-2024. What is the current situation for environmental defenders in Brazil going into COP30?
[Brazil] are really making efforts, as far as I can see, to address the root causes – and this is really why human-rights defenders are in such danger – that is, land is at the heart of all the problems there. But progress is still very slow. At the moment, only 16 territories have been demarcated by [Brazilian president] Lula and that is hugely important because, as I said, it’s at the root of pretty much all the attacks and killings by either the thugs associated with the companies, or the big landowners, the illegal logging, and all the stuff that is happening there. So that is something that we really need a speed up of – the demarcation of Indigenous lands.
When it comes to COP30, they’ve put some effort into making it more inclusive, especially when it comes to bringing the voices and experiences of Indigenous defenders into the negotiations. Now we’ll see what will happen in November and what the negotiations bring.
This interview has been edited for length.
Watch, read, listen
‘GOD’S WILL’: Samaa TV followed four street workers across Pakistan, exploring their views on climate change through the lens of faith.
COP EXPECTATIONS: Down to Earth unpacked what to expect from COP30 from a global-south perspective in their Carbon Politics podcast.
1.5C ALIGNED: Scientist and former UN climate lead Ploy Achakulwisut grappled via a LinkedIn post with the challenges of assessing whether national targets are aligned with a 1.5C world.
Coming up
- 4 November: UN emissions gap 2025 report launch
- 4 November: International Energy Agency (IEA) world energy outlook 2025 report launch
- 6-7 November: COP30 leaders summit, Belém, Brazil
Pick of the jobs
- International Institute for Sustainable Development, head of secretariat, national adaptation plan global network | Salary: CA$129,000-CA$161,000. Location: Ottawa or Toronto, Canada (hybrid)
- SRM360, lead writer/editor | Salary: $100,000-$120,000. Location: Remote
- Project Drawdown, senior analyst, climate philanthropy and investing | Salary: $120,000-$160,000. Location: US
- Climate News Tracker, journalism insights analyst | Salary: Unknown. Location: London (hybrid)
- University of Birmingham, climate and public health policy impact fellow | Salary: £36,636-£46,049. Location: Birmingham, UK
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 31 October 2025: Hurricane Melissa strikes Jamaica; Climate plans overshoot 1.5C; Protest crackdowns appeared first on Carbon Brief.
As an extreme El Niño breaks marine temperature records, COP31 is set to boost the profile of the ocean’s role in solving climate change, but finance and clear conservation measures will be needed for it to move the needle, experts said.
The Turkish presidency has announced plans for an Antalya Ocean Declaration that recognises the centrality of the global ocean – the world’s largest carbon sink – in regulating the climate and minimising the now unavoidable overshoot of global temperatures above 1.5C over pre-industrial levels.
Meanwhile, as part of the formal UN negotiations, Australia has announced plans to land a cover decision in Antalya, which, according to veteran former US negotiator Sue Biniaz, would be the only section of the formal negotiations where the role of oceans could be included.
She added that an outcome at COP31 seems likely, given the initiative from both presidencies and a push from over 100 countries – including Brazil, the EU and the African Group of countries – calling for the UN negotiations to deliver a plan for implementing ocean measures.
Governments will arrive in Antalya with a “super El Niño” adding stress to marine ecosystems and expected to continue to intensify until December 2026, with parts of the Pacific averaging almost 30C (86F) – over 3C more than normal – in October, according to monthly EU sea temperature data.
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COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
Electrification, the fossil fuel transition, adaptation to rising impacts, climate science and trade are key themes as governments gather for COP31 in Türkiye -
European nations signal support for fossil fuel roadmap, says COP30 president
André Corrêa do Lago told Climate Home News that it’s up to other nations to decide how the fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps are used -
Nepal seeks stronger recognition of mountain issues in UN climate process
Flood-hit Nepal wants COP31 to adopt a new agenda item formalising work on mountains and climate change and boosting the response to rising risks
Needs for ocean conservation and funding
While elevating the ocean agenda is “critical”, it must lead to funding for ocean conservation and a clear plan for reaching the global target – set at UN biodiversity talks in 2022 – of protecting 30% of the global ocean by 2030, said Pradeep Singh, senior ocean governance expert at Oceano Azul Foundation.
The ocean is precisely where governments are farthest off track from meeting this target – informally known as the 30×30 goal. Even if countries meet all their nature conservation plans, only about 12% of the global ocean would be protected, the UN says.
“Acknowledgment of marine protected areas and the 30×30 target as climate infrastructures will certainly boost efforts and funding for science and management,” Singh told Climate Home News.
Shamini Selvaratnam, director of international climate and clean energy at Ocean Conservancy, said an ocean commitment that makes a difference in coastal communities “takes funding, local capacity and support that countries can actually access”.
An analysis by climate think tank Zero Carbon Analytics shows that investment in the blue economy – through activities like sustainable fisheries or cleaner shipping – is only at about 2% of the needs, which are estimated at $550 billion per year.
Following-through on commitments
Selvaratnam added that countries must also establish mechanisms to follow through on these measures, which currently only exists in the form of a non-binding dialogue that is not expected to produce any negotiated agreements.
She said that countries at COP31 must find ways for their ocean commitments to inform the next global stocktake, the UN’s five-yearly review of progress on climate action. Some countries – including African countries, Latin American nations, small island states and the European Union – have backed a process that culminates in the next global stocktake.
At climate negotiations, countries are not mandated to include ocean conservation measures in their climate plans. But a group of countries led by France and Brazil is pushing them to do so voluntarily through an initiative called Blue NDC Challenge. Seventeen countries have joined the initiative so far.
In its list of COP31 priorities, the EU has called for the “critical role” of oceans to be recognised, but falls short of calling for any specific actions to feature marine action more prominently in climate plans.
As part of their demands, ocean campaign groups have called for the establishment of an “Antalya Ocean Compact”, a platform where countries can coordinate efforts across different environmental treaties, including the UN climate, biodiversity and high seas negotiations.
Ultimately, Selvaratnam said a strong deal “must accelerate emissions cuts, clean energy, and a transition away from fossil fuels, including offshore oil and gas”.
Ilana Seid, chair of the AOSIS group of small island states and permanent representative of Palau to the UN, said during a press briefing last week that “meaningful progress” on emissions reduction is “the best way” to alleviate stress on the ocean.
The post ‘Blue COP31’ set to spotlight need for ocean protections amid record heat appeared first on Climate Home News.
‘Blue COP31’ set to spotlight need for ocean protections amid record heat
In the wake of its recent glacial flooding disaster, Nepal and the kingdom of Bhutan have proposed a new agenda item on mountains and climate change for the COP31 summit which opens on Monday in the Turkish city of Antalya.
In a submission addressed to the COP31 presidency and the head of the UN climate secretariat (UNFCCC), Nepal said the agenda item, entitled “1.5°C Warming in Mountains”, is an effort to strengthen the response of the international community to the climate risks facing the world’s mountain regions.
The item proposes that mountain issues should become a regular part of the formal UN climate change process, with a focus on scientific assessment of the risks associated with warming overshooting 1.5C, an annual high-level dialogue, a dedicated work programme and improved access to climate finance.
Maheshwar Dhakal, chief of the climate change management division of Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Environment, told Climate Home News that Himalayan countries face similar problems such as collapsing glaciers and flooding from glacial lakes.
“We are trying to bring all Himalayan countries together under this agenda item,” he said.
COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
At this year’s UN General Assembly, Nepal’s Prime Minister Balendra Shah called for strong global action to ensure climate justice and proposed creating a Himalayan Climate Resilience Mechanism led by India, China and Nepal. It would share satellite data, monitor glacial slopes and lakes, strengthen early warning systems and coordinate cross-border disaster response.
Nepal has experienced significant infrastructure losses and human casualties from flooding every year since 2020. In late August, the collapse of a glacial slope on the border with Tibet caused a torrent of water and debris to course down the Bhote Koshi River, leaving more than 6,000 people dead or missing.
According to a government needs assessment, the disaster caused an estimated $2.7 billion in physical damage and economic losses, while around $4.8 billion will be required for recovery and rec