Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Record heat in 2024
DEADLY DECADE: UN secretary general António Guterres used his new year’s message to declare that “we have just endured a decade of deadly heat”, the Press Association reported. The news outlet said that all of the top 10 hottest years on record took place in this period, with 2024 emerging as the hottest. Meanwhile, China Daily reported that China reached its hottest annual temperature since records began, while ABC News said Australia saw its second-warmest year.
DANGEROUS HEAT: The Associated Press covered research from World Weather Attribution and Climate Central that found people globally experienced “an average of 41 extra days of dangerous heat” last year due to climate change. The analysis also found that climate change intensified 26 of the 29 extreme weather events from last year that the groups studied, according to Euronews.
Turning off Russian gas
GAS BLOCK: Russian gas flowing into several European countries was stopped on New Year’s Day, after Ukraine refused to renegotiate a transit deal “in the hopes of hurting its invader financially”, NBC News reported. Ending the flow of gas via Ukrainian pipelines will cost the Russian state-backed Gazprom around $5bn a year in gas sales, but will also cost Ukraine around $800n a year in transit fees, according to CNN.
EUROPE’S RESPONSE: EU member states prepared for this event by increasing capacity for liquified natural gas (LNG) imports and renewables, according to the Kyiv Independent. LNG from the US and Qatar has also helped the EU move away from Russian gas, Reuters said. However, Euractiv reported on “unease” from negatively affected eastern European countries, with Slovakia “threatening” retaliation against Ukraine, and Moldova – which is not an EU member state – “declaring a state of emergency” amid gas shortages.
Around the world
- FIRE WEATHER: “Out of control” bushfires are blazing in Australia, with elevated fire danger warnings issued for many states amid high temperatures, according to the Guardian.
- FLOOD DAMAGE: Hundreds of people have been evacuated in north-west England due to flooding, BBC News reported. Meanwhile, the Bank of England warned that climate change-driven floods could “devastate the value” of hundreds of thousands of UK homes, according to the Daily Telegraph.
- BANK WITHDRAWAL: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup announced that they were quitting the UN-backed net-zero banking alliance, Bloomberg reported. Financial Times described the departures as “the latest sign corporate America may retreat from climate goals” under incoming president Donald Trump.
- ALL ELECTRIC: Norway is “on the brink” of achieving its target for 100% of new car sales to be electric by 2025, with zero-emission cars making up 88% of new sales last year, the National reported. Meanwhile, the Daily Telegraph said Tesla saw its “first ever drop” in annual electric-vehicle sales, amid pressure from Chinese rivals.
$75 billion
The amount that fossil-fuel companies will be fined over the next 25 years, under a recent New York state law, according to Reuters.
Latest climate research
- The record-long Canadian wildfire season in 2023 was more than five times as likely due to human-caused climate change, according to a new study published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
- New research in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concluded that the rate at which carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increase could affect the pace at which the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a current moving water, heat and nutrients around the world, slows down.
- A nationally representative survey of more than 1,000 US adults, published in Environmental Science and Policy, found that only around one-third were aware of the term “climate justice”, but half supported its goals after reading a short description.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The UK’s electricity was the cleanest it has ever been in 2024, according to new Carbon Brief analysis that was covered by the Times, the Guardian and other news outlets. CO2 emissions per unit have fallen by 70% over the past decade, as the chart above shows. This trend can be attributed to the UK phasing out coal while expanding its use of renewables, which reached a record 45% of electricity generation last year.
Spotlight
Europe’s forgotten overseas territories and climate change
In the wake of Cyclone Chido, Carbon Brief considers the climate threat facing Europe’s overseas territories.
Cyclone Chido tore through the French island of Mayotte in mid-December, killing at least 39 people and leaving thousands injured or homeless.
The storm, which was made more intense by climate change, was the strongest to hit the tiny Indian Ocean territory in close to a century. Much of the devastation was linked to the lack of sufficient shelter and resources in what has long been France’s poorest region.
Chido marks the latest extreme weather event to hit one of Europe’s “overseas territories” – colonial remnants that are largely dotted around the tropics, from the Caribbean to the Pacific.
‘Urgent action’ required
Most of the 34 European overseas territories are part of France, the UK and the Netherlands, due to their histories operating slave plantations on tropical islands.
These territories vary significantly in governance, wealth and independence. However, they have a shared vulnerability to climate-related threats, such as cyclones and sea level rise.
The EU’s first climate risk assessment report, published last year, called for “urgent action” to protect member states’ overseas territories from climate change, highlighting their “remote locations, weaker infrastructure and economic vulnerability”. UK territories, particularly those in the Caribbean, face similar challenges.
“Technically, politically, institutionally, they’re in the global north, but their realities are akin to any other country in the global south,” Dr Vanessa Deane, an urban planning researcher at New York University, told Carbon Brief.
Carbon Brief analysis of the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), run by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in Belgium, shows that at least 197 people in European overseas territories were killed by extreme weather events over 1990-2024. (EM-DAT is the most comprehensive disaster database, but lacks complete data for poorer countries, meaning this figure is likely to be an underestimate.)
At least another 39 have been killed by Chido in Mayotte, making it the deadliest single event over this period in an overseas territory, according to EM-DAT data. The final death toll may be far higher.
Another quarter of a million people in these territories have lost their homes, been injured or otherwise affected over this period, mainly due to cyclones, according to EM-DAT.
‘Lagging behind’
Dr Virginie Duvat, a small islands researcher at the University of La Rochelle in France, said territories such as Mayotte are simply not treated the same as their mainland counterparts by French policymakers:
“Climate adaptation policies are lagging behind. This is paradoxical because these territories are more exposed and more vulnerable to climate change.”
Elise Naccarato, a climate justice advocate at Oxfam France, pointed to the “almost total absence of the overseas territories” in France’s upcoming climate adaptation plan.
Overseas territories generally lack the financial and technical capacity to implement climate adaptation programmes, or recover from climate-related disasters. Yet they also often cannot access climate-related aid.
Instead, the territories tend to rely on specialised funds set up by the EU and central governments to support climate-related activities, but these have been described as “insufficient” and “uncertain”.
As an example, Dr Daphina Misiedjan, a legal researcher at Erasmus University in the Netherlands, pointed to the “roundabout way” that the Dutch government provided relief to the territory of Sint Maarten, in the wake of Hurricane Irma. Rather than providing money directly, the government handed control to the World Bank, and funds took years to reach people.
Last year, residents of the Dutch Caribbean island of Bonaire, alongside Greenpeace Netherlands, launched a lawsuit against the Netherlands, claiming the state had not protected them sufficiently from climate change.
“[European countries] really profited from the colonial times, but now they have extra responsibility to make sure these islands are safe during the climate crisis,” Greenpeace climate campaigner Maarten de Zeeuw told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
THE YEAR IN CLIMATE: After a year of key elections and many extreme weather events, BBC podcast the Climate Question presented a review of the top climate stories from 2024, hosted by an expert panel.
WINE LIST: A “big read” article in the Financial Times, which includes interactive graphics, looked at how the changing climate is pushing wine making into northern regions and “redrawing of Europe’s wine map”.
BEST BOOKS: Mongabay has published a list of 10 “notable” environment-themed books published in 2024. Topics covered range from Indigenous land rights to coral bleaching.
Coming up
- 6-11 January: First Global Heat Health Information Network Southeast Asia Heat Health Forum, Singapore
- 9-10 January: Attribution Science and Climate Law Conference, New York City
- 9-11 January: Extraordinary Summit on the Post Malabo Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme, Kampala, Uganda
Pick of the jobs
- UK Climate Change Committee, chair | Salary: £1,000 per day. Location: London
- Wiley, deputy editor – environment | Salary: $59,900-$87,767. Location: Remote or hybrid, US, UK or Brazil
- Smith School, University of Oxford, data lead – state of carbon dioxide removal | Salary: £48,235-£57,255. Location: Oxford, UK
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 3 January 2025: ‘Decade of deadly heat’; Russian gas cut off; Europe’s forgotten overseas territories and climate change appeared first on Carbon Brief.
With the U.S. bombing Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closed, energy experts say countries transitioning to renewables will be more resilient in the “face of the shock.”
The United States’ war on Iran could fundamentally alter how countries consume and generate energy and hamper international progress in combating climate change, a panel of energy experts said today.
The Global Energy Supply in a Decade ‘Is Not a World We’re Going to Recognize’
One month into the US and Israel’s war on Iran, at least 60 countries have taken emergency measures in response to the subsequent global energy crisis, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.
So far, these countries have announced nearly 200 policies to save fuel, support consumers and boost domestic energy supplies.
Carbon Brief has drawn on tracking by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other sources to assess the global policy response, just as a temporary ceasefire is declared.
Since the start of the war in late February, both sides have bombed vital energy infrastructure across the region as Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz – a key waterway through which around a fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) trade passes.
This has made it impossible to export the usual volumes of fossil fuels from the region and, as a result, sent prices soaring.
Around 30 nations, from Norway to Zambia, have cut fuel taxes to help people struggling with rising costs, making this by far the most common domestic policy response to the crisis.
Some countries have stressed the need to boost domestic renewable-energy construction, while others – including Japan, Italy and South Korea – have opted to lean more on coal, at least in the short term.
The most wide-ranging responses have been in Asia, where countries that rely heavily on fossil fuels from the Middle East have implemented driving bans, fuel rationing and school closures in order to reduce demand.
‘Largest disruption’
On 28 February, the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, triggering conflict across the Middle East and sending shockwaves around the world.
There have been numerous assaults on energy infrastructure, including an Iranian attack on the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar and an Israeli bombing of Iran’s gas sites.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf, is causing what the IEA has called the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
A fifth of the world’s oil and LNG is normally shipped through this region, with 90% of those supplies going to destinations in Asia. Without these supplies, fuel prices have surged.
Governments around the world have taken emergency actions in response to this new energy crisis, shielding their citizens from price spikes, conserving energy where possible and considering longer-term energy policies.
Even with a two-week ceasefire announced, the energy crisis is expected to continue, given the extensive damage to infrastructure and continuing uncertainties.
Asian crunch
Carbon Brief has used tracking by the IEA, news reports, government announcements and internal monitoring by the thinktank E3G to assess the range of national responses to the energy crisis roughly one month into the Iran war.
In total, Carbon Brief has identified 185 relevant policies, announcements and campaigns from 60 national governments.
As the map below shows, these measures are concentrated in east and south Asia. These regions are facing the most extreme disruption, largely due to their reliance on oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.
Nations including Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and India are already spending billions of dollars on fuel subsidies to protect people from rising costs.
At least 16 Asian countries are also taking drastic measures to reduce fuel consumption. For example, the Philippines has declared a “state of national emergency”, which includes limiting air conditioning in public buildings and subsidising public transport.
Other examples from the region include the government in Bangladesh asking the public and businesses to avoid unnecessary lighting, Pakistan reducing the speed limit on highways and Laos encouraging people to work from home.
Europe – which was hit hard by the 2022 energy crisis due to its reliance on Russian gas – is less immediately exposed to the current crisis than Asia. However, many nations are still heavily reliant on gas, including supplies from Qatar.
The continent is already feeling the effects of higher global energy prices as countries compete for more limited resources.
At least 18 European nations have introduced measures to help people with rising costs. Spain, which is relatively insulated from the crisis due to the high share of renewables in its electricity supply, nevertheless announced a €5bn aid package, with at least six measures to support consumers.
Many African countries, while also less reliant on direct fossil-fuel supplies via the Strait of Hormuz than Asia, are still facing the strain of higher import bills. Some, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia, are also facing severe fuel shortages.
There have been fewer new policies across the Americas, which have been comparatively insulated from the energy crisis so far. One outlier is Chile, which is among the region’s biggest fuel importers and is, therefore, more exposed to global price increases.
Tax cuts
The most common types of policy response to the energy crisis so far have been efforts to protect people and businesses from the surge in fuel prices.
At least 28 nations, including Italy, Brazil and Australia, have introduced a total of 31 measures to cut taxes – and, therefore, prices – on fuel.
Even across Africa, where state revenues are already stretched, some nations – including Namibia and South Africa – are cutting fuel levies in a bid to stabilise prices.
Another 17 countries, including Mexico and Poland, have directly capped the price of fuel. Others, such as France and the UK, have opted for more targeted fuel subsidies, designed to support specific vulnerable groups and industries.
These measures are all shown in the dark blue “consumer support” bars in the chart below.
Such measures can directly help consumers, but some leaders, NGOs and financial experts have noted that there is also the risk of them driving inflation and reinforcing reliance on the existing fossil fuel-based system.
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, spoke in favour of short-term measures to “smooth the shock”, but noted that “broad-based and open-ended measures may add excessively to demand”.
Measures to conserve energy, of the type that many developing countries in Asia have implemented extensively, have been described by the IEA as “more effective and fiscally sustainable than broad-based subsidies”.
So far, there have been at least 23 such measures introduced to limit the use of transport, particularly private cars.
These include Lithuania cutting train fares, two Australian states making public transport free and Myanmar and South Korea asking people to only drive their cars on certain days.
Clean vs coal
At least eight countries have announced plans to either increase their use of coal or review existing plans to transition away from coal, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis. These include Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany and Italy.
These measures broadly involve delaying coal-plant closure, as in Italy, or allowing older sites to operate at higher rates, as in Japan – rather than building more coal plants.
There has been extensive coverage of how the energy crisis is “driving Asia back to coal”. However, as Bloomberg columnist David Fickling has noted, this shift is relatively small and likely to be offset by a move to cheap solar power in the longer term.
Indeed, some countries have begun to consider changes to the way they use energy going forward, amid a crisis driven by the spiralling costs of fossil-fuel imports.
Leaders in India, Barbados and the UK have explicitly stressed the importance of a structural shift to using clean power. Governments in France and the Philippines are among those linking new renewable-energy announcements with the unfolding crisis.
New renewable-energy capacity will take time to come online, albeit substantially less time than developing new fossil-fuel generation. In the meantime, some nations are also taking short-term measures to make their road transport less reliant on fossil fuels.
For example, the Chilean government has enabled taxi drivers to access preferential credit for purchasing electric vehicles (EVs). Cambodia has cut import taxes on EVs and Laos has lowered excise taxes on them.
Finally, there have been some signs that countries are reconsidering their future exposure to imported fossil fuels, given the current economics of oil and gas.
The New Zealand government has indicated that a plan to build a new LNG terminal by 2027 now faces uncertainty. Reuters reported that Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup has told the government it wanted to abandon a plan to build a new LNG-fired power plant in Vietnam, in favour of renewables.
The post Iran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Iran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis
Seven Senate Democrats launched the probe over controversial tax credits to the country’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas.
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