Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped.
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
COP16 comes to a close
ABRUPT END: COP16 nature talks in Cali “ended in disarray on Saturday” after nearly 12 hours of overtime, “with some breakthroughs”, but without consensus on key issues such as nature funding and how this decade’s targets would be monitored, the Guardian reported. Many developing country delegations “were forced to leave the talks early”, it added, due to the 14-hour over run. Those delegations “expressed fury” at how the talks were organised, leaving “crucial issues undecided at the final hour”. Those issues – and COP16 itself – will have to be picked up “next year at an interim meeting in Bangkok”. For a full breakdown of events, read Carbon Brief’s detailed summary of COP16’s key outcomes and watch back the wrap-up webinar where Cropped journalists explained what happened in Cali and answered audience questions.
‘CALI FUND’: One of the “breakthroughs” that countries managed to agree on was a “global levy on products made using genetic data from nature”, the Guardian said. Pharmaceutical, cosmetics and agricultural technology companies that “presently enjoy free and extensive access to this data” now “should contribute” 1% of their profits or 0.1% revenue to the new “Cali Fund”, the Financial Times explained. While this “would essentially be voluntary contributions by companies, rather than [a] mandatory levy”, the decision “could create significant moral and reputational pressure on companies to comply”, it added. Global pharmaceutical industry bodies quoted in the outlet “hit out at the decision” that could have raised a “$67m payment last year from Switzerland’s Roche…alone”. At least half of the money is “meant to support Indigenous people and local communities, especially in low-income parts of the world”, Vox reported.
NO NEW FUND: A key issue on which “no common ground was found” was “how to close the gap in biodiversity finance”, Climate Home News reported. While “unlocking” new and additional finance was a key challenge for COP16, “very little fresh cash was forthcoming” in the two-week summit, the outlet wrote, observers calling $163m in new pledges a “drop in the ocean”. It added that African countries, Brazil and Bolivia “demanded a new fund”, while “Canada, Switzerland, Japan, New Zealand and the EU opposed it, instead offering an assessment of the current set-up by COP18”. Wealthy nations “appeared to hit a limit with how much they are willing to pay” to protect nature at COP16, Reuters wrote, “instead shifting their focus” towards “private money filling the funding gap”.
Indigenous recognition at COP16
A PERMANENT HOME: In one of the historic wins at COP16, negotiators agreed to “establish a subsidiary body that will include Indigenous peoples in future decisions on nature conservation”, the Associated Press said. The outlet explained that the subsidiary body “recognises and protects” Indigenous knowledge and practices for the “benefit of global and national biodiversity management”. According to the text adopted by the COP, the subsidiary body will have two co-chairs: one nominated by Indigenous representatives and one nominated by parties within a rotating UN regional grouping. The Jakarta Post noted that Indonesia “eventually supported” the creation of the subsidiary body “following an initial rejection”.
‘WATERSHED MOMENT’: Agence-France Presse reported that Indigenous representatives at the summit, “many in traditional dress and headgear, broke out in cheers and chants” upon the adoption of the decision. The newswire quoted Camila Romero, an Indigenous representative from Chile, who said: “This is an unprecedented moment in the history of multilateral agreements on the environment.” Earth.org called the decision a “watershed moment” and added it “builds on a growing movement to recognise the role of Indigenous peoples in protecting land and helping combat climate change”.
EXPLICIT RECOGNITION: In a separate decision, the COP “finally explicitly recognised the role played by the Afro-descendant population in the care and preservation of biodiversity”, Colombia’s El Espectador reported. The Spanish-language daily said that the issue “had cost [delegates] several hours of negotiations”, as Colombia’s proposal – backed by Brazil – was strongly opposed by the African Group. The newspaper noted: “In practice, this recognition also means that they will be able, in the future, to access funds related to the protection of biodiversity.” On Twitter, Colombian vice-president Francia Márquez wrote: “This is a historic event, an act of ethnic-racial justice.”
Farms hit by ‘deadly’ Valencia floods
VALENCIA DOWNPOUR: Floods that killed more than 200 people in Valencia, Spain, hit farms and left fields waterlogged, Reuters reported. One fruit farmer told the news agency that he was about to harvest oranges and persimmons before the intense rain: “Now the fruit is going to rot. Even the trees can die because they have been under water for 36 hours.” The floods affected “thousands of hectares of farmland”, agricultural groups and farmers told Reuters. Climate change made the extreme rain heavier and more likely to occur, according to a rapid analysis covered by the Associated Press.
SMALL FARMS LOSE OUT: Meanwhile, several companies owned by billionaires received “generous” farm subsidies from the EU over 2018-21, the Guardian reported. Based on analysis of “official, but opaque, data”, the newspaper found that billionaires were the “ultimate beneficiaries” tied to £2.76bn of EU farm payments during this time. This included companies owned by the former Czech Republic prime minister Andrej Babiš and “British vacuum cleaner tycoon” James Dyson. Another Guardian piece found that the “income gap” between Europe’s biggest and smallest farms doubled in the past 15 years. Over this time, “the number of small farms has collapsed”, the newspaper’s analysis of agricultural income data found.
CLINCHER: Smallholder farmers around the world “remain mixed” on the EU’s proposal to delay its anti-deforestation law ahead of a key vote, Mongabay reported. A European parliament vote in mid-November will decide whether the law aiming to stop the sale of goods produced on deforested land will be postponed. An oil palm and cacao farmer in Nigeria told Mongabay that the delay would give “breathing room” for compliance, but added: “It also means that I might lose the momentum I have built up in terms of making these critical changes.” Meanwhile, the European Commission is set to approve Christophe Hansen as the new agriculture commissioner, Euronews reported. Hansen was a key figure in forming the anti-deforestation regulation.
News and views
‘HUNGER HOTSPOTS’: A new report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme found that “severe food crises” are putting hundreds of thousands of people at risk in 22 “hunger hotspots”, including Palestine, Sudan, South Sudan, Haiti and Mali, the Associated Press reported. The newswire noted that “conflicts, economic instability and climate shocks” are all fuelling the “alarming levels” of food insecurity. Meanwhile, a joint UN-Nigeria report found that the country is facing “one of its worst hunger crises” as the country is “grappling” with the cost of living, Reuters said. It added: “Flooding and insecurity in northern states [has] continued to hit agriculture, further driving up food prices beyond the reach of many families.”
ILLEGAL ACTIVITY: JBS – the world’s largest producer of beef – purchased cattle from a farm that had previously been sanctioned and fined for illegal deforestation in Brazil, apparently “in direct contravention of its promises to keep its supply chain clean”, an Unearthed investigation revealed. JBS told Unearthed that “acquisitions followed JBS purchasing policy according to the available information at the time”. Meanwhile, Brazilian authorities told Reuters that they “are preparing to remove illegal gold miners from an Indigenous reservation in the Amazon rainforest”. The reservation in question “has the second-most illegal mining in Brazil”. Illegal mining causes deforestation, contaminates rivers with mercury and has “triggered public health crises on Indigenous reservations”, the newswire added.
CUTTING CORNERS: Verra, the world’s largest certifier of carbon credits, has announced that it will review projects more quickly despite workforce reductions, Climate Home News reported. Verra has introduced a new “risk-based approach” that uses algorithms and staff judgement to categorise offset projects by how risky they are. Projects deemed high-risk will be checked more thoroughly than low-risk ones. Experts told Climate Home News that the new approach risks further undermining Verra’s credibility following allegations of malpractice (which Verra disputes). In response, a spokesperson for Verra told the publication that the approach had been in development for “some time” and would “help mitigate the impact of the reduction in [staff] forces, but that is not the purpose of it”.
VIRAL MIXING: The US Department of Agriculture announced that a pig on a farm in Oregon was infected with H5N1, the highly contagious avian influenza virus that has been circulating since 2020. NPR wrote that “finding bird flu in a pig raises worries that the virus may be hitting a stepping stone to becoming a bigger threat to people”, adding that swine are an intermediary that “can play a role in making bird viruses better adapted to humans”. In the Conversation, Prof Ed Hutchinson from University of Glasgow explained: “Pig cells can be infected by both bird flu and human flu, making pigs a potential ‘mixing vessel’ in which influenza viruses with pandemic potential could be brewed.”
Watch, read, listen
PARADISE LOST: A Hakai Magazine story reflected on how it took “millions of years” for the Mediterranean to heal from a “massive environmental calamity”.
‘COSMO BIOCENTRIC’: The Economics for Rebels podcast talked to Dr Jocelyne Sze about Indigenous stewardship of global ecosystems.
SEEDS OF DOUBT: Yale Environment 360 interviewed a microbial biologist about “how reforestation efforts can go awry if done poorly, reducing biodiversity and harming local populations”.
POST-COP ANALYSIS: The BBC World Service Newshour programme covered COP16’s key outcomes, speaking to a member of the Sámi Indigenous peoples and Carbon Brief’s Orla Dwyer.
New science
- A global area the size of Mexico has the potential for natural forest restoration, a Nature study said. The authors calculated that restoring this area of forest could absorb 23.4bn tonnes of carbon over 30 years.
- A slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could “exert a systemic impact on the Amazon” by causing northern forests to dry out, according to a Nature Geosciences study. The research used ancient pollen and micro-charcoal data to reconstruct how a past slowdown of the large-scale ocean current system caused hotter and drier conditions in the northern Amazon, suggesting this could happen this century because of climate change.
- Intense marine heatwaves reduce catches of lobster, sea urchin and sea cucumber for small-scale Mexican fishing communities by as much as 58%, a Communications Earth and Environment study found. The scientists noted impacts were larger “for operations in areas of high historical environmental variation and low historical variation in fisheries production”.
In the diary
- 7 November: Launch of UNEP Adaptation Gap report | Online
- 11-22 November: COP29 UNFCCC climate conference | Baku, Azerbaijan
- 18-19 November: G20 Summit | Rio de Janeiro
Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org.
The post Cropped 6 November 2024: COP16 concludes; Recognition for Indigenous peoples; Spain’s farms hit by ‘deadly floods’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Amira Odeh Quiñones is a hydrologist and Caribbean organiser for the 350.org climate campaign group
El Niño, likely to be one of the strongest in modern history, has arrived on Caribbean shores.
Drought is slowly creeping up on our islands. But unlike the fiery wildfires ravaging parts of Europe, there’s no smoke signalling the damage being done, no sirens to warn of the danger. Only announcements from public health officials to stay indoors and remain hydrated — as if outdoor workers and farming communities have the luxury to heed such advice.
During El Niño, strong atmospheric winds alter rain patterns and trap heat across the Caribbean. But while we have experienced El Niño many times before, it has become very visible in recent years how climate change is making this natural phenomenon worse.
Across the Greater Antilles, temperatures are soaring past 38°C (100°F), with real-feel indexes reaching a gruelling 43°C in parts of Puerto Rico where I live. Cuba has it worse. Widespread power outages mean that methods for cooling down are unavailable for most of the day, leaving millions of vulnerable people at risk of heat stroke when temperatures hit 38°C.
Santa Marta coalition tested as co-chair Colombia turns back to fossil fuels
During the last strong drought a decade ago, I had water only two days a week in my home. Today, there are many families whose taps are about to run completely dry. Water authorities have already begun strict rationing in some municipalities, with more on the list scheduled for rationing if conditions don’t change.
Water rationing is far more than an inconvenience; it is an immediate health risk. This means thousands of people need to constantly haul heavy buckets up flights of stairs just so they could bathe, cook, stay hydrated – the basics of survival.
Heat causes health problems
Puerto Rico is home to roughly 300,000 elderly residents. Many live alone, isolated and without support. They risk severe physical injury when carrying heavy water containers, and are wont to suffer from silent heat exhaustion in unventilated rooms.
Furthermore, when water shortages force residents to store water in open household containers, it inadvertently creates breeding grounds for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Paired with scorching temperatures that tend to shorten the mosquito breeding cycle, the region is facing explosive outbreaks of dengue fever that endanger our most vulnerable: children and the elderly.
The economic fallout is equally devastating. Dry fields mean millions of dollars in lost crops, forcing small agricultural businesses to collapse, needing urgent government relief to survive. Extreme fuel shortages have already paralyzed Cuba’s agricultural sector, cutting food output by 60% – the El Niño dry spell threatens to decimate it.
At sea, warmer ocean waters fuel massive influxes of sargassum seaweed. Rotting sargassum chokes our beaches, destroying the local tourism industry that so many working families rely on. Tangled seaweed also damages nets and boat engines, slashing fish catches and driving up equipment costs for local fishers.
In the south of Puerto Rico, the coastal town of La Parguera is currently witnessing a historic amount of sargassum on its shores. This has halted most of the boating activity in the area, which is the seaside town’s main tourist draw and economic driver.
All over the Caribbean, from town halls to local group gatherings, the story I hear is always the same: constant headaches, lost work hours, failing health, and a sense that quality of life is silently being stolen. The compounding effects of heatwaves, drought, and marine destruction are exhausting our people, our islands.
Climate change to blame
Climate change makes each El Niño year hotter and more damaging. Higher baseline global temperatures increase the energy and moisture available for extreme weather. Latest projections show that El Niño may push the monthly global average temperature past 2°C of warming for the first time in early 2027. In the Caribbean islands, that will not just be breaking records – it’ll be breaking lives.
Recently, I had the opportunity to share a panel with climate scientists behind what is known as the field of “attribution science” – or the science that compares today’s climate conditions to what the Earth’s climate would be like without human activity, particularly burning fossil fuels. They’re unequivocal: it’s no longer a question of whether extreme weather is caused by climate change, it’s just a question of how much.
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Attribution science recently got a boost from the U.S.’ top scientific advisory body. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recognized that researchers’ methods have advanced considerably in recent years, resulting in better assessments on how much extreme weather can be attributed to human-caused climate change. It noted that attribution findings could be relevant in some types of legal cases, including those seeking damages from oil companies for climate impacts.
This crisis, which is already taking a heavy toll on our communities’ survival, needs real, urgent, and structural action that goes beyond aid. With similar droughts now gripping parts of Asia and Africa, we’re falling into the familiar narrative of treating the looming humanitarian crisis as if no one was to blame, as if it is being caused solely by a natural phenomenon we can’t control.
It’s not. The world was already on fire before its regular visitor, El Niño, came. While we need humanitarian action, we need climate action too, in order to permanently put out the flames.
The post When taps run dry in the Caribbean, it’s not enough to blame El Niño appeared first on Climate Home News.
When taps run dry in the Caribbean, it’s not enough to blame El Niño
China has released a five-year plan dedicated to addressing climate change.
The 15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change is the latest in a series to outline in-depth climate and energy targets for the 2026-2030 period.
These include five-year plans for “building a Beautiful China”, developing a “new-type energy system” and developing renewable energy.
There are also separate “action plans” for the 2026-2030 period, such as for peaking carbon emissions.
China has pledged to peak its emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.
The new plan does not include any major new targets, instead consolidating and reaffirming existing policies.
Nevertheless, it includes significant signals on key policy areas, such as non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases, global climate governance and carbon markets.
Below, Carbon Brief examines some of the notable elements in the latest five-year plan and what it reveals about China’s policy direction through to 2030.
What does the climate plan cover?
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released the plan in late July, in unison with 18 other government departments. These include the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency, and the National Energy Administration.
The document covers a range of topics, including CO2 emissions, other greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs), carbon markets, carbon footprints, climate adaptation and international cooperation on climate change.
For the first time at the five-year plan level, the plan creates a comprehensive target system covering all areas of climate policy, say officials in a MEE Q&A.
They describe it as “the main policy instrument” for advancing China’s climate action during 2026-2030.
China rarely issues high-level multi-year policies dedicated to “responding to climate change”. In 2014, the NDRC published a plan on the topic running through to 2020, but this was not linked to a five-year plan period.
Qin Yan, principal analyst at ClearBlue Markets, tells Carbon Brief that the plan shows that China’s climate governance has reached “an unprecedented strategic level”.
She adds that the plan creates an “all-encompassing target system” to support China’s Paris Agreement climate pledges for 2030 and 2035.
In its 2030 pledge, China aimed to peak emissions “before 2030” and reduce carbon intensity – its emissions per unit of GDP – by more than 65% from 2005 levels.
Last year, president Xi Jinping personally announced China’s 2035 pledge to cut China’s greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, while “striving to do better”.
The five-year plan marks a new phase in China’s climate policy, according to researchers at CIB Research, an economic research body affiliated with the Industrial Bank, whose largest shareholder is the Fujian provincial government.
Their analysis adds that the plan represents a broad effort to strengthen China’s climate-governance system, implementation mechanisms and underlying capacity.
Nevertheless, several headline targets and policies in the document simply reiterate already established plans.
These include:
- Cutting carbon intensity by 17% across the five years
- Reducing carbon intensity per product in industries under China’s carbon market by 3%
- Substituting fossil fuels with renewables
- Strengthening climate adaptation
- Supporting the “free flow” of cleantech
What does the plan say about non-CO2 GHGs?
The plan also goes into detail on China’s approach to non-CO2 GHGs. This includes reaffirming a target of an emissions “reduction capacity” from these gases totalling 30m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030, although the baseline is unclear.
The target previously appeared in the overarching five-year plan, as well as the plan for building a “Beautiful China”.
The goal refers to emissions reductions, which can be realised through implementing current non-CO2 emissions reduction policies and projects, says Chen Meian, programme director and senior analyst at the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP).
She adds that it is “relatively achievable”, with sources including increasing the number of coal-mine methane utilisation projects.
She points to an MEE explanatory note for a draft methodology under the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme, China’s voluntary carbon-credit market. Chen says the note suggests that projects using ventilation air methane and coal-mine methane with concentrations below 8% alone could deliver around 20MtCO2e of reduction by 2030.
The note states that, currently, such projects are estimated to be able to “generate annual emission reductions of approximately 4.5MtCO2e”.
In addition, Chen says, measures targeting industrial nitrous oxide (N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) could help make up the remainder needed to meet the target.
According to iGDP analysis of biennial reports submitted by China to the UNFCCC, China emitted around 14,000MtCO2e of GHGs in 2021, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).
Non-CO2 GHGs accounted for around 2,700MtCO2e, or 19%, of the total, the majority of which was methane, as shown in the figure below.
China’s plans to curb these super-pollutants in the five-year period include coal-mine methane utilisation projects, end-of-pipe destruction technologies for HFCs and guidance on the use of catalysts to reduce N2O emissions.
The plan also calls for the recovery and replacement of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) in power equipment.
For Chen, the plan’s focus on SF6 control is particularly noteworthy. She says the gas is “finally receiving policy attention” and that proactive action is “timely and will help avoid future emissions growth” as China’s power system expands.
What does the plan say about global climate governance?
One of the plan’s clearest objectives for international cooperation is for China to play a more active role in global climate governance.
By 2030, it says China should markedly increase its “influence, guiding power, shaping power and moral appeal” in this area.
It says China’s climate action could also feed into the Global Governance Initiative, a policy initiative aimed at reforming the global governance system.
China will also aim to “build a new narrative on climate governance”, it adds.
Prof Thomas Hale, a professor in public policy at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, writes on LinkedIn that the plan “marks a major rhetorical shift” towards China being increasingly willing to “lead and shape” global climate action.
Another clear focal point for international cooperation is in carbon markets.
The plan calls for China to expand the global influence of its carbon market, such as through international rule-setting, cooperation on standards and by hosting the China Carbon Market Conference.
Qin says China’s more active role in global carbon pricing is already evident in the launch of the open coalition on compliance carbon markets with the EU and Brazil. This coalition is expected to adopt a work plan at the China Carbon Market Conference in September.
Qin also notes that China “could become the world’s largest [carbon] offset buyer” as its energy transition progresses.
The country would, therefore, “benefit from helping shape global rules under the Article 6 framework [for carbon trading under the Paris Agreement]”, she adds.
Related
Interview: Dr Sun Yixian on his new database tracking Chinese climate ‘leadership’
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Analysis: China’s new carbon metric leaves Germany-sized gap in its emissions
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The post Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?
About a quarter of the countries signed up to the Paris Agreement are still breaching its rules by failing to submit a new national climate plan, 18 months after the February 2025 deadline.
Forty-five nations had not submitted a plan known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), according to the Paris Agreement Implementation and Compliance Committee’s (PAICC) newly-published report of its 7-10 July 2026 meeting. One, Oman, has published it since the meeting.
Twelve countries ignored the committee’s repeated attempts to find out why they had not yet produced a climate plan, the report said. They will be invited to the committee’s next meeting, from September 1-4, so it can identify the challenges and constraints they face.
Members of the committee are divided, as they were at their last meeting, on whether to name those countries publicly and will debate the question again in September.
The PAICC does not have any power to punish governments, as building these powers into the Paris Agreement was thought to be so controversial that it could have stopped some governments from joining, experts have previously told Climate Home News.
A key requirement of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement is that governments publish a more ambitious NDC every five years, setting targets to reduce their planet-heating emissions and outlining their policies to adapt to climate change, in order to meet the accord’s goals on limiting global warming and protecting people from its effects.
The latest set – the third round of plans, with new targets for 2035 – was due in 2025.
Some medium-sized emitters
Countries without an updated NDC include Egypt, Vietnam, Argentina and the Phillippines, all of which rank among the world’s 40 largest greenhouse gas emitters. The rest of the countries are smaller, poorer nations, with many in Africa or the Caribbean.
Some nations have argued that they cannot put together an NDC – which requires a significant amount of work in tracking emissions and consulting on how to curb them across the economy – because of exceptional circumstances. For example, a letter from a Sudanese official to the PAICC committee, seen by Climate Home News, says that the country’s civil war has led to the suspension of its NDC preparation.
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The US and Iran are not signed up to the Paris Agreement, although the US submitted a 2035 NDC under the Biden administration before Donald Trump pulled the US out of the UN climate accords.
The committee also expressed concern that the UN’s NDC registry continued to label the climate plans of countries that are no longer party to the Paris Agreement as “active”, according to its report. The US submission has since been archived.
Since the last PAICC meeting in March, ten countries have published NDCs. The committee did not name them but they include India, Algeria, Cameroon and Guyana.
The post Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline appeared first on Climate Home News.
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