The copper market is seeing big changes lately. A short-term trade truce between the US and China has helped push copper prices up, giving investors some relief. At the same time, China is producing more refined copper than ever before.
But there’s a problem, there isn’t enough copper ore to meet demand. Even with record imports, supply is still tight. With inflation and global growth concerns still hanging around, the market remains on edge.
Let’s study deeper…
Copper Prices Rally on Eased Trump’s Tariff Tensions
COMEX July Futures: Copper futures for July delivery are trading at approximately $4.68 per pound (or $10,296 per tonne), reflecting a 1.3% increase following the recent US-China trade truce.
This boost came after a temporary easing in trade tensions between the US and China. Investors welcomed the news, anticipating smoother trade flows and fewer disruptions in global commodity markets.

What’s Driving the Copper Price Surge?
Elaborating further, both countries have rolled back tariffs for the next 90 days. US tariffs on Chinese goods dropped to 30%, while China cut its tariffs on US imports to 10%. This move has created a positive ripple effect across commodities, stocks, and currencies.
According to media sources, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the agreement as a “very good framework” and stressed that the US is not seeking full economic decoupling from China. This statement helped further calm market fears.
Another significant factor that pushed up copper prices was China’s record-high imports in April. The world’s largest copper consumer imported nearly 3 million tonnes of copper concentrate last month. Experts predict that this increase could ease supply tightness and help local smelters, which have been struggling with low ore availability.
Challenges Still Persist for Chinese Copper Smelters
While China’s copper imports have surged, its smelters remain under pressure. According to Discovery Alert, spot treatment charges turned negative in December and fell further to -$57.50 per tonne by early May. Smelters are now paying to process ore, which is a sign of tight supply and intense competition.
China’s refined copper production has hit all-time highs, even though copper ore remains in short supply. The situation worsened due to a two-month export halt at Indonesia’s PT Freeport mine and a smelter shutdown in the Philippines. Both events tightened global supply but later helped China when ore flow resumed.
According to Mysteel Global analyst Li Chengbin, Chinese plants are better prepared this year, securing long-term contracts and benefiting from resumed exports out of Indonesia.
A Look Back: The Copper Price Shakeup
Just days before the trade truce, copper prices took a hit. On April 4, Bloomberg reported a sharp decline in both copper and global equity markets. On the London Metal Exchange, prices dropped as much as 7.7%, briefly reaching $8,735 per tonne before rebounding slightly.
Earlier, traders had rushed to ship copper into the US to avoid rising tariffs. Premiums surged to $500 per tonne. Major firms like Mercuria and Trafigura had predicted copper prices could hit $12,000 per tonne. But when the US unexpectedly shortened the tariff deadline, buyers were caught off guard, and stockpiles began piling up outside US ports.

Copper Market Outlook 2025–2026
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shared its latest copper forecast during a meeting held on April 25, 2025, in Lisbon. Both mine and refined copper production are expected to see solid growth through 2026.
ICSG expects a surplus of about 289,000 tonnes for 2025, slightly higher than the surplus of 194,000 tonnes forecast last September. It’s a surplus of about 209,000 tonnes is currently expected for 2026. This is attributed to weak global demand, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policies.
Mine Production on the Rise
In 2025, global copper mine production is projected to increase by 2.3%, reaching around 23.5 million tons. This growth will be driven mainly by the continued ramp-up of major projects like Kamoa in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, along with the commissioning of the new Malmyz mine in Russia.
However, some of these gains will be partially offset by expected output declines in Australia, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan.
For 2026, the ICSG expects a slightly higher growth rate of 2.5%. This will be supported by ongoing capacity expansion, particularly in China, as well as an expected recovery in Indonesia and improved output from Chile and Zambia.
Additionally, several smaller mining operations and mid-sized projects in countries like Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola, and Morocco will contribute to the overall production increase.

Refined Copper Output Expanding
Refined copper production is forecast to rise by about 2.9% in 2025. The increase will be fueled by continued capacity expansion in China and new refining operations starting in Indonesia, India, and the DRC.
Growth in 2026 is expected to slow slightly to 1.5%, but output will still benefit from ongoing upgrades and new capacity additions across several countries.
In short, the global copper market is on a growth path, with new projects and recovering output in key regions setting the stage for steady production gains through 2026.

Other Forecasts
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Long-Term Price Predictions: According to LongForecast, copper prices are expected to average around $4.535 per pound in May 2025, with potential fluctuations ranging from $4.180 to $4.896.
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Goldman Sachs has revised its copper price forecast for Q2 2025 to $9,330 per tonne, up from the previous estimate of $8,620, citing shifts in the global metals market.
The US-China trade truce has breathed new life into the copper market, lifting prices and calming investor nerves. China’s record copper imports have also helped support global demand. But the road ahead is still uncertain. All in all, inflation, interest rates, and economic growth will all play a role in copper’s next move.
- FURTHER READING: Copper Crunch! How Trump’s Tariffs and Supply Shocks Drive Prices Up
The post Copper Prices Surge to $10,296/Tonne as US-China Truce Sparks Market Rally appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD
For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.
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Carbon Footprint
How community stewardship makes carbon credits durable
A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?
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Carbon Footprint
Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility
What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.
Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.
Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.
What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working
The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.
Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.
The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.
The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.
The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.
The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.
What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign
The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.
- What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
- What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
- What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
- What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
- What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.
If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.
Where this leaves your near-term commitments
You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.
You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.
Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.
If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.
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