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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Floods killed 60 people after ‘year of rain in a week’

HUMAN TOLL: Heavy rainfall in late July killed at least 60 people across northern China, with flooding and landslides affecting Beijing and neighbouring Hebei province, Reuters reported, adding that “meteorologists link an increase in extreme weather…to climate change”. In some areas, a “year’s worth of rain fell in less than a week”, another Reuters article said. China’s “usually arid north has seen record rains in recent years”, but Beijing’s topography “amplif[ied] the deluge” that killed more than 30 people in the capital, the newswire added. Other affected regions included Shanxi, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Shandong, Tianjin and Inner Mongolia, according to various news outlets. 

PERSISTENT HEAT: Five people were killed in southern Guangdong province due to “torrential rain”, said the state-run newspaper China Daily. Shanghai evacuated “around 280,000 people” as storm Co-may brought “strong winds and heavy rainfall”, Bloomberg said. Elsewhere, China Daily reported on “persistent high temperatures” in central China, adding that multiple regions faced intense heat or rainfall this week. The southern city of Chongqing “elevated its heatwave warning to the highest level” following temperatures “exceeding 40C for a week”, Reuters said.

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RELIEF FUNDS: State broadcaster CGTN said China allocated more than one billion yuan ($139m) to areas across China for flood and drought relief efforts. Beijing and its neighbouring provinces received 550m yuan ($77m) for flood relief, reported the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP).

NEW OUTBREAK: Meanwhile, thousands of residents in southern China’s Guangdong province have contracted chikungunya, a mosquito-borne disease, Bloomberg reported, quoting an expert saying the “surge in chikungunya cases is likely due to favorable climatic conditions”. The outbreak “is the latest sign that tropical diseases…are expanding their reach, as climate change lets mosquitoes live in new territories”, it added.

Government tackled ‘Industrial Cthulhu’

OVERCAPACITY POLICIES: Regulators released a “draft amendment” to China’s pricing law that aims to “rein in price wars”, Reuters said. China will “name and shame” companies that continue to implement “ruinous competition”, said Bloomberg. Draft “guidance” was also issued on deploying government funds, SCMP reported, to prevent continued “overconcentrat[ion]” of local government investment in the “new three” and other sectors. China’s leadership also called for “reducing excess competition” and regulating “local government practices in attracting investment”, said Xinhua. According to Bloomberg, this showed “China’s leaders see the dangers” of China’s manufacturing strength “clearly”. (It added that some netizens had nicknamed the sector “Industrial Cthulhu”, in a “tongue-in-cheek” comparison that it said was meant to imply that “China’s manufacturing power is a beast”.)

SUPERCHARGING DEMAND: Domestic sales of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) between January and June 2025 rose 40% year-on-year to just under seven million units – 44% of total car sales – reported the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily, while exports “surged” by 75%. Energy news outlet International Energy Net quoted a National Energy Administration (NEA) official saying China expects 2025 power demand for EV charging alone to equal the “annual power generation of the Three Gorges dam”.

HIDDEN FIGURES: While the figures show that 2025 is “shaping up to be another stellar year” for China’s EV industry “on paper”, Caixin said, “overcapacity” and fierce price wars mean the industry’s mood is “far from celebratory”. Separately, Reuters found it is “increasingly common” for automakers in China, including EV manufacturers and foreign brands, to “inflate car sales”.

EV TARIFFS: Meanwhile, Chinese EVs exports to the EU have made a “full comeback from tariffs set in place last year”, with Chinese automakers’ share in Europe’s EV market surpassing 10%, according to Bloomberg. Elsewhere, Thailand has “adjusted” EV subsidies to encourage exports as surging Chinese investment creates excess domestic “capacity”, said finance news outlet Caixin. EV manufacturer BYD has been offered a “short-term tariff break” in Brazil, but will face aggressive “hikes…in the long run”, SCMP reported.

Forecast for solar growth in 2025 rose to 300GW

GENERATION SHARE: Renewable energy accounted for “almost 40% of total power generation” in the first half of 2025, NEA officials said at a press conference covered by BJX News. New solar and wind generation also covered “total growth in electricity demand”, the energy news outlet added. BJX News also added that, according to the NEA officials, non-fossil fuel sources now account for 60% of China’s electricity mix. Meanwhile, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association “raised its forecast for new domestic solar installations this year” to 270-300 gigawatts (GW), citing the “minimal impact” of “new policies such as document 136” on large-scale clean-energy bases, reported business news outlet Jiemian. China had already installed 212GW of new solar capacity in the first half of the year, said China Daily.

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INDUSTRY INSPECTIONS: The government will conduct “energy conservation inspections” on polysilicon manufacturers, Jiemian said. It quoted an anonymous “industry insider” as saying the targeted companies are “not all…polysilicon projects for photovoltaic use”, adding that the inspections likely aim to identify “projects that consume resources without creating actual value”. Meanwhile, Reuters found “China’s biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year”, illustrating the “pain from the vicious price wars”, while “more than 40 solar firms have delisted, gone bankrupt or been acquired” since 2024.

‘ORDERLY’ DEVELOPMENT: China issued a new policy on “further regulating the use of farmland for solar projects”, calling for better management and strict supervision of “solar projects involving the use of farmland”, reported International Energy Net. The NEA also pledged to “guide the orderly development of distributed [solar] projects and ensure safe and efficient consumption”, said another International Energy Net article.

Central bank boosted finance for ‘future energy’

NEW ENERGY FINANCE: China’s central bank, alongside several government ministries, released guidance on financing “new industrialisation”, BJX News reported, adding that it encouraged supporting sectors such as “new energy” in “raising capital” and encouraged state-run investment funds to focus on “future energy” and other “future industries”. The guidance also called for more support for “green and low-carbon transformation” and clean-energy technologies. Separately, China will evaluate the energy consumption and potential carbon emissions of “fixed asset” investments over a certain threshold of energy or coal consumption, said International Energy Net.

‘CLIMATE THREATS’: The CMA launched a new “initiative” to “establish a global early warning service network in the face of escalating climate threats”, CGTN said. China also issued a plan to “create greener, safer and more livable environments” in the face of “intensifying global climate change”, said People’s Daily. China’s agriculture ministry also released a work plan to “ensure a bountiful autumn grain harvest” in the face of an “above-average number of extreme weather and climate events this year”, Xinhua reported.

NDRC ON HIGH DEMAND: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency, commented on recent high power demand, reported International Energy Net. It explained that the NDRC said China will “ensure an adequate and stable [power] supply” through effective management of coal production and will “integrate new energy’s supporting role” with coal’s role as a “bottom-line guarantee” (兜底保障) for power generation. Separately, the NDRC also highlighted “promoting…comprehensive transformation under dual-control of carbon mechanisms” as one of its “key tasks” for the rest of 2025, according to China Energy Net.

Spotlight 

Guest spotlight: What an ‘ambitious’ 2035 electricity target looks like for China

A new study has found that China must at least double its wind and solar capacity by 2035 to align its power sector with a 2C global warming target. 

In this issue, co-authors Zhenhua Zhang and Michael R Davidson, a PhD student and associate professor at the University of California, San Diego, respectively, explain how China could encourage climate ambition by setting power-sector targets.

The full article is available on Carbon Brief’s website.

China’s power sector is both the world’s largest emitter and the largest source of clean-energy growth.

This means it will be a key part of China’s next nationally determined contribution (NDC) – its climate pledge under the Paris Agreement for 2035.

In our new study, co-authored with experts from Tsinghua University, we model pathways for China’s power system up to 2035 that are consistent with its wider climate goals.

China has already surpassed its 2030 renewable deployment target, due to recent record-breaking annual additions.

However, new coal-power developments and rapid growth in electricity demand pose a threat to meeting China’s other targets.

Our research looks at the rate of growth from clean energy that would be required to not only meet China’s rapidly rising demand for electricity, but also to push down its coal generation and squeeze emissions from the power sector.

Staying below 2C

We simulate a range of scenarios for 2035, based around two different scenarios for China that are compatible with a global limit of 2C warming this century.

The basic 2C trajectory would see China’s power-sector emissions fall to 36% below 2024 levels by 2035, whereas the more ambitious 2C trajectory has a 42% decline.

It shows wind and solar energy would need to supply around 40% of China’s electricity by 2030, if the country aims to remain on track for 2C of global warming.

Solar and wind power generation would need to then rise to 50% by 2035, up from 17.9% in 2024.

This growth would substantially reduce the system’s reliance on coal and other fossil fuels, which would decrease to 35% of generation in 2030 and 25% in 2035.

The more ambitious scenario, which targets limiting global warming since the pre-industrial period to 1.5-2C, would see even higher wind and solar generation shares of 44% by 2030 and 54% by 2035.

Under the different scenarios, China’s wind and solar capacity would rise from around 1,700GW today to 2,350-2,780GW by 2030 and 2,910-3,800GW by 2030, requiring annual additions of 120-220GW.

Recent wind and solar additions have already exceeded this pace.

Challenges with grid integration and supporting infrastructure could slow future large-scale buildouts, meaning battery and grid capacity would need to rise by 6% and 5% per year to 2035, respectively to better integrate renewables into the grid.

The NDC and beyond

Due to the rapidly evolving economic and geopolitical situation, there are good reasons to expect that China’s topline emissions number in its NDC may be underwhelming. But there is an opportunity to emphasise and expand ambition within the power sector through additional sectoral targets.

While China has previously set a target for the absolute capacity of wind and solar, a goal for the share of electricity generation would set a narrower range for future power sector emissions.

Given current uncertainties around the pace of power demand growth, for example, a target for clean energy share might provide greater confidence than a capacity target alone.

Regardless of what targets are set, achieving the growth of clean energy modelled in our study would support China’s long-term climate commitments and demonstrate the nation’s intent to be a clean-energy powerhouse.

Watch, read, listen

‘UNSHAKEABLE’ GOAL: President Xi Jinping told attendees of the 2023 National Conference on Ecological and Environmental Protection that China’s commitment to its “dual-carbon” goals is “unshakeable”, according to a speech published in full, for the first time, by top ideological journal Qiushi.

CLIMATE REFUGEES: The United Nations Refugee Agency assistant high commissioner Raouf Mazou spoke with China Daily about China’s role in addressing “climate change-linked displacement”.

FINANCE FLOWS: The Environment China podcast explored what impact China’s push to develop “green finance” has had on the country’s energy transition.

PROVINCIAL PROGRESS: The Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs published a report assessing different provinces’ progress in reaching China’s “dual-carbon” goals.


1.35 billion

In tonnes per annum, the amount of coal-mine capacity that is “at various stages of development” in China, according to updated data from thinktank Global Energy Monitor – more capacity than “all other countries combined”.


New science 

Wet-hot days increased faster than dry-hot days during the warm season in Chinese cities over the past four decades

Communications Earth & Environment

A new study found a “significant increase” in both dry-hot and wet-hot extremes in China during the May-September warm season. The authors investigated changes in hot extremes in 136 Chinese cities over 1981-2022. They found that wet-hot extremes accounted for 36% of all hot days, while dry-hot days accounted for only 4%. The authors said their findings “underscore the urgent need for adaptive urban strategies to mitigate the growing risk of compound temperature-humidity extremes under ongoing urbanisation and climate change”.

China’s nationwide streamflow decline driven by landscape changes and human interventions

Science Advances

The amount of water running through rivers, or “streamflow”, has declined at more than 70% of Chinese hydrological stations over the past six decades, according to a new study. The authors combined data from more than 1,000 hydrological stations with climate models to produce a “comprehensive national assessment” of streamflow across China. They found that decreases in streamflow were mainly in northern China and were driven by changes in land use, but that increases in streamflow were found in the south, mainly driven by “climate change and variability”.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel, with contributions from Svetlana Onye. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

The post China Briefing 7 August 2025: Deadly floods; ‘Industrial Cthulhu’; Higher solar forecast  appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 7 August 2025: Deadly floods; ‘Industrial Cthulhu’; Higher solar forecast 

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‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak

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Antarctic sea ice has recorded its third-smallest winter peak extent since satellite records began 48 years ago, new data reveals.

Provisional data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that Antarctic sea ice hit its annual winter peak on 14 September, with an extent of 17.59m square kilometres (km2).

The organisation notes that the data is still preliminary, adding that “large fluctuations in extent are typical of Antarctic sea ice near the seasonal maximum”.

One expert tells Carbon Brief that it is “concerning to see these low values persisting”, but says that scientists need more time to determine whether this represents a “structural shift” in Antarctic sea ice extent.

Meanwhile, at the Earth’s other pole, Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum on 12 September, ranking as the joint-10th lowest in the satellite record.

The NSIDC notes that the last 20 years have seen the lowest 20 Arctic sea ice extents in the satellite record.

Antarctic peak

Dr Lettie Roach, a polar climate scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, tells Carbon Brief that this year’s Antarctic sea ice maximum was “well below average for the season”. She warns that, “after several decades of stable or increasing winter Antarctic sea ice conditions, it is concerning to see these low values persisting”.

She adds:

“Compared with the Arctic, it’s less clear how recent changes in Antarctic sea ice are attributable to human-caused warming vs natural variability. We need more years of observations to better understand whether this is truly a structural shift.”

Dr Clare Eayrs, a postdoctoral researcher at the Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI), tells Carbon Brief that, since recording a “near-average February minimum” extent, Antarctic sea ice has “returned to unusually low winter coverage”.

She notes that Antarctic sea ice extent in July and August this year were the fifth and fourth lowest on record, respectively, adding that “all five of the lowest July extents have occurred since 2022 and all four of the lowest August extents since 2023”.

The chart below shows Antarctic sea ice extent in 2025 (dark blue) and 2026 (red) so far. For comparison, the chart shows decadal averages (dotted lines) as well as 2023 (mid blue), the year of the smallest winter sea-ice maximum on record.

Antarctic sea ice peak in 2026 is third smallest on record. Daily Antarctic sea ice extent for 2026, 2025, and 2023, as well as decadal averages, million km2. Source: NSIDC. Line chart showing 2026 peak in September remaining below 1980s-2010s averages but above Sep 2023's lowest record. - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)
Daily Arctic sea ice extent for 2026 and 2025, with decadal averages for comparison, based on data from the NSIDC. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Eayrs tells Carbon Brief that the regional pattern of Antarctic sea ice cover “changed substantially during the growth season”.

For example, she says that “in April, the Bellingshausen Sea remained almost entirely ice-free, while the neighbouring Amundsen Sea had more ice than usual”.

However, by late August, changes in atmospheric pressure and wind meant that “the Bellingshausen deficit had largely recovered, while ice was unusually scarce in the Amundsen Sea and across much of East Antarctica”.

Map showing the main regions of the Antarctic.
Map showing the main regions of the Antarctic. Credit: Carbon Brief

Arctic minimum

Meanwhile, the Arctic recorded its minimum summer sea ice extent on 12 September. At 4.60m km2, this year ties with 2025, 2010 and 2008 as the 10th-lowest sea ice extent on record.

The chart below shows Arctic sea ice extent in 2025 (dark blue) and 2026 (red) so far. For comparison, the chart shows decadal averages (dotted lines) as well as 2012 (mid blue), the year of the smallest summer sea-ice minimum on record.

Arctic sea ice minimum in 2026 is tied for 10th smallest on record. Daily Arctic sea ice extent for 2026, 2025 and 2012, as well as decadal averages, million km2. Source: NSIDC. The line graph shows annual ice extent reaching September lows, with 2026 far below 1980s-2000s averages. - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)
Daily Antarctic sea ice extent for 2026 and 2025, with decadal averages for comparison, based on data from the NSIDC. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Roach tells Carbon Brief that although this minimum is not “record setting”, it is still “lower than any sea ice minimum before 2007”. She adds:

“Human-caused climate change has reduced Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, so the region is fundamentally different compared to a few decades ago.”

Scientists have been tracking Arctic sea ice thickness using a reanalysis produced called the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) since 1979.

In March 2026, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) terminated a global dataset of air pressure that scientists relied upon to produce PIOMAS, forcing both datasets to stop publishing updates.

The PIOMAS website says it will take “considerable effort and time” to find alternative data to use in their reanalysis. It adds that “we don’t yet have a good sense if that’s possible with available funds and if so, when we will be able to resume production of a new PIOMAS timeseries”.

Roach also notes that August saw record-breaking heat sweep across much of the world, explaining that high temperatures “extended into Arctic coastal regions, close to regions with substantial sea ice loss – particularly the Barents-Kara and East Siberian seas”.

Dr Zack Labe, a scientist at Climate Central, tells Carbon Brief that the absence of a new record does not mean that ice cover is becoming more “resilient”. He says:

“Local weather patterns across the Arctic play a really important role in year-to-year sea-ice extent, even as the long-term trend is clearly downward.”

Labe tells Carbon Brief that weather in the Arctic this summer was “influenced mainly by lower pressure toward the central Arctic, which brought cloudier and cooler conditions that limited surface melt and delayed the start of the melt season”.

He explains that this “was most obvious across parts of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, where the melt season didn’t really kick off until after early July, which was more than two weeks later than normal”.

In contrast, he says, the Atlantic side of the Arctic “had a much more extreme summer”, with sea ice in the Barents Sea recording its “earliest melt-out on record”.

This was partly due to “unusually warm air and ocean temperatures”, Labe says. He notes, for example, that parts of western Siberia saw unusually persistent temperatures more than 5C above the 1981-2010 average for much of the summer, which extended out over the Kara Sea and contributed to substantial ice melt in this area”.

Map showing main regions of the Arctic.
Map showing main regions of the Arctic. Credit: Carbon Brief

Labe tells Carbon Brief that, going forward, scientists need “more data and observations of other sea-ice metrics, like ice thickness, which may give us better insight into the overall condition of the ice pack, especially during years like 2026 when it is very fragmented”.

(In March 2026, Arctic sea ice reached its peak extent for this winter, clocking in as the joint-smallest in a satellite record going back almost half a century.)

The post ‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak appeared first on Carbon Brief.

‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak

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COP31 attendees told not to interfere in Türkiye’s “internal affairs”

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Participants at COP31 in Antalya will have a “duty” not to interfere in Türkiye’s internal affairs under the country’s hosting deal with the UN, reviving a clause dropped for last year’s climate summit in Brazil that human rights groups warn could put activists at risk.

Türkiye has faced growing criticism from human rights groups over the jailing of opposition figures, journalists and activists and imposed a blanket protest ban around July’s summit of the NATO military alliance in Ankara.

The contested provision is included in the binding agreement between the UN climate secretariat and the Turkish government that sets out responsibilities over logistical arrangements and details participants’ rights and obligations.

The document, signed in June but only made public on Wednesday, gives accredited COP31 attendees immunity from legal action over what they say, write or do in connection with the conference. Climate Home News understands that this safeguard can be applied to what takes place both inside and, in certain circumstances, outside of the UN-controlled COP “Blue Zone”. For the first time, this protection explicitly continues after the summit ends.

Turkish riot police arrested protesters during the anti NATO protest on July 7, 2026 in Ankara, Turkey. (Photo by Sedat Suna/Getty Images)

But participants enjoying these “privileges and immunities” also have a duty to respect Türkiye’s laws and regulations and not to interfere in its internal affairs, the agreement states. Rights groups fear its wide-ranging formulation could be used to discourage criticism of the host government.

Climate Home News understands that whether an action is covered by the immunity or infringes on the host’s internal affairs would be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, with close coordination between the country’s authorities and the UN climate change body.

A separate provision states that immunity shall be waived where the UN believes it would “impede the course of justice”.

‘Chilling effect’

Those same provisions featured in the host country agreements for COP28 in the United Arab Emirates and COP29 in Azerbaijan, both regarded as authoritarian regimes, before being dropped for COP30 in Brazil.

Ann Harrison, climate justice policy advisor at Amnesty International, said it is “extremely disappointing” that the COP31 agreement re-introduced clauses that could “hinder the ability of human rights defenders and civil society organisations to conduct their work safely”.

COP31 electrification pledge leaves out clean power commitment

She added the provisions could have a “wider chilling effect” on rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, given concerns over the human rights situation in Türkiye, including laws that “have shrunk civic space” and their “abusive” implementation by authorities.

The UN climate change body declined to comment.

Rights groups have documented blanket protest bans, unlawful use of force by the police and prosecutions of journalists, human rights defenders and lawyers across Türkiye in the last year.

Arrests and protest bans

Last July, environmental activist Esra Işık was sentenced to more than two years for “resisting” a public official over what Amnesty International described as a peaceful protest against an urgent expropriation order linked to the expansion of coal mining in south-western Türkiye. She is appealing the conviction.

Ahead of a summit of the NATO alliance in the capital Ankara in July, authorities put in place a 13-day blanket ban on demonstrations, citing “national security”, and arrested over 200 people. Human Rights Watch said the crackdown showed Türkiye’s “ruthless intolerance of freedom of speech and assembly”.

Earlier this month, Turkish police detained dozens of people as part of what rights groups described as the government’s widening crackdown on LGBTQ+ activists and venues.

Questioned by media as to how he would guarantee the right to protest at COP31, Kurum said earlier in September that his team would “try to meet” any request they receive from civil society and give them “a free space to express themselves”.

“Don’t worry, thinking you will not be able to voice your opinions or really share your thoughts,” he said in an attempt to reassure campaigners, adding that he had put former deputy environment minister Mehmet Birpinar in charge of liaising with civil society.

Civic space needed

Camilla Pollera, human rights and climate change campaigner at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), said meaningful participation at COP31 is fundamental to the legitimacy of climate action.

“At a climate summit, civil society participation necessarily includes being present, speaking out, scrutinising governments’ decisions and climate policies, and advocating for communities most vulnerable to climate change,” she added.

Thousands march in a COP30 protest calling for climate justice and protection of the Amazon among other things in Belem, Brazil on November 15, 2025.
Thousands march in a COP30 protest calling for climate justice and protection of the Amazon among other things in Belem, Brazil on November 15, 2025. (Photo: Mariel Lozada/Climate Home News)

At last year’s COP30 summit, thousands of Indigenous people and climate activists peacefully marched through the Amazonian city of Belém in the first major demonstration outside the UN venue in four years. Smaller-scale demonstrations were largely confined to the “Blue Zone” at COP27 in Egypt, COP28 in the UAE and COP29 in Azerbaijan.

In two other separate incidents in Belém, members of the Munduruku tribe blocked access to the conference centre for hours, demanding an end to development projects in their ancestral land, and protesters stormed through the venue clashing with UN security officials.

The COP31 hosting agreement keeps some of the safeguards previously hailed by civil society groups. The government and the UN secretariat commit to upholding “the fundamental human rights” of all participants in the agreement’s preamble.

Under the deal, Türkiye also needs to ensure that security personnel follow “the highest ethical and professional standards and are expected to behave with integrity and respect”.

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Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood

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As rising seas submerge growing swathes of land, countries that lose territory should still keep their national boundaries, sovereign rights and UN membership, according to a political declaration adopted at the UN General Assembly in New York on Thursday.

The declaration, which was championed by climate-vulnerable small island states, affirms “the presumption in favour of continued statehood” in the face of sea level rise fuelled by climate change, and urges countries to work together to assist communities affected by encroaching oceans.

Speaking at a high-level UN meeting to address the existential threats posed by sea level rise, Cabo Verde’s Prime Minister Francisco Carvalho, one of the initiative’s co-facilitators along with Australia, said the adoption of the text by consensus sends “a message of hope”.

“This declaration has a very special meaning. For us, sea level rise is neither a distant threat nor a theoretical concern,” he said, adding that rising seas put at risk key infrastructure, water resources and economic growth in small island states.

In the Pacific, sea levels have risen at twice the global rate, dramatically increasing coastal flooding events from two to 20 a year in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and from zero to 102 events per year in American Samoa, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Surangel Whipps Jr., president of the Pacific island of Palau, said the summit in New York represents a “moment of international solidarity”, and highlighted that small island states will remain permanent members of the UN.

    Declaration recognises statehood

    An advisory opinion by the world’s top maritime court, the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), first upheld in 2024 that countries do not have to shrink their maritime borders even if they lose land territory due to sea level rise. This was reiterated by the International Court of Justice in last year’s landmark ruling on the climate obligations of states.

    The new declaration endorsed by all governments at the UN General Assembly stresses that sea level rise “is not a distant scenario but a real and lived experience for many”, and notes that international law must be implemented in global responses to rising seas.

    UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the “milestone must now be translated into action”, adding that the declaration should encourage an “ongoing dialogue” at the “highest possible level” leading to practical outcomes. Pacific islands have proposed an international treaty on sea level rise that would provide more legal certainty.

    “Those on the frontlines must be front and centre on every decision. We cannot allow countries and cultures to vanish beneath the waves,” he said. “The SOS has gone out. The world must answer.”

    At regional summit, Pacific islands ask for COP31 support for clean energy and finance

    Goodwin Friday, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, said measures to protect vulnerable states will require adequate finance. “Investing in resilience now is more cost-effective than paying the far greater price for loss and damage later,” he added.

    Championed by Australia’s COP31 co-presidency, Pacific islands have sought to put adaptation to sea level rise and ocean conservation at the top of the political agenda by inviting world leaders to attend the pre-COP31 summit co-hosted by Fiji and Tuvalu in October.

    Tuvalu will also host the second global fossil fuel phase-out summit in April 2027, after around 60 governments met this year in Santa Marta, Colombia, to discuss ending their dependence on coal, oil and gas.

    “Our coastlines, our reefs and our communities are living with the consequences of fossil fuel dependence every day, and our people have earned the right to help shape the way forward,” Lynda Tabuya, Fiji’s climate minister, said in a statement announcing details of the conference.

    Secretary-General António Guterres attending the meeting on addressing the existential threats posed by sea level rise at UN headquarters in New York.
    Secretary-General António Guterres attending the meeting on addressing the existential threats posed by sea level rise. (Photo: UN Photo/Manuel Elías)

    Ocean monitoring gets a boost in New York

    Amid record-breaking marine heat and seas rising at unprecedented speed, governments in New York announced new commitments to protect the world’s ocean, as efforts to bolster marine ecosystems and coastal communities rise up the political agenda.

    On Wednesday, the EU and Canada announced more funding for a new Europe-led ocean monitoring system called OceanEye, launched in the aftermath of a failed attempt by the Trump administration to dismantle the largest existing network of deep-sea observatories.

    During an event at UN headquarters in New York, EU President Ursula von der Leyen and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced around $163 million in new funding for the initiative, with the EU pledging €92 million ($105m) on top of existing seed funding and Canada pledging C$82 million (US$58m) over five years.

    According to an EU statement, while OceanEye will collaborate with the Global Ocean Observing System, that network “remains vulnerable to financial shortfalls and geopolitical disruptions”. A group of 30 countries from Europe, Africa and the Americas joined an international initiative in support of OceanEye, including large coastal nations like Brazil, Namibia and Mexico.

    Von der Leyen said OceanEye “can make us the leading ocean data provider in a matter of years”, including by launching new satellites and installing new observatories in the deep ocean. “From outer space to the deepest ocean, our funding helps us keep watch beneath the waves,” she added.

    Carney said the initiative would help protect Canada’s Arctic region with real-time monitoring operating year-round. “We can’t protect what we can’t see,” he said, also highlighting that Canada had expanded conservation of its ocean territory from 1% a decade ago to 15% now.

    In New York, a group of 19 countries said they are either developing or implementing plans to sustainably manage all of their ocean territory, with 12 new nations joining the initiative. In a joint communiqué, they called on more countries to sign up ahead of COP31.

    Warnings of El Niño-fuelled extreme heat

    Scientists and world leaders have raised the alarm over this year’s record-breaking marine temperatures, which have persisted above historical peaks for more than 100 days as the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon intensifies in the Pacific.

    Extreme ocean heat could become a threat to coastal ecosystems and communities, experts fear. Water temperatures 1.5C above normal levels have also rapidly fuelled a strong hurricane in the Pacific in recent days.

    Despite scientific calls for additional ocean conservation efforts, a report launched this week in New York warned that efforts to protect ocean ecosystems are lagging behind, with only 10% of the global ocean covered by conservation areas and just 3.5% designated as “effectively protected”.

    The post Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood

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