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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Floods in the south, drought in the north 

EXTREME WEATHER: China has been hit by extreme weather over the past two weeks. About 35% of its corn production was affected by severe drought in north China where some rivers had “dried up a month ago”, reported Reuters. In the south, torrential rain and flooding killed at least 38 people in Guangdong province – China’s most populated – as well as eight people in Hunan province and two in Anhui province. Local newspaper Guangxi Daily reported that this week’s floods in Guilin, capital city of Guangxi province, were the largest in the area since 1998. Chinese president Xi Jinping “has urged all-out efforts to fight floods and droughts, and to ensure solid work in disaster relief”, said state agency Xinhua. Some 33 rivers in China “exceeded warning levels”, according to Xinhua

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GLOBAL WARNING: Yang Pingjian, director of the environmental sociology department at the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, wrote in China Environment News that “the adverse effects of climate change have become more and more obvious: heavy rainfall, typhoons, hail and other extreme weather occur” in China. The National Climate Center said that China is “experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves due to global warming”, reported China Daily. The “average onset of high temperatures (those exceeding 35C) has advanced by 2.5 days per decade” and the average heatwave starting date has moved from 24 June in 1981-1990 to 7 June in 2011-2020, the outlet added. New research covered by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post found that “widespread heat stress will be felt by most of China’s population by the end of the century due to climate change, with the north of the country expected to be hit hardest”. 

SUMMER PRESSURE: These high temperatures may cause peak electricity consumption to grow by more than 100 gigawatts (GW) year-on-year during this summer’s peak period, putting pressure on “ensuring power supply”, China Securities Journal reported. Writing in financial newspaper Caixin, Qin Qi, China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) noted that this expected 100GW increase is “similar to 2022’s growth, which saw power shortages and blackouts”, adding that this “highlighted the need for a more flexible inter-provincial electricity trading mechanism”. She also pointed to the need for flexible grid operations and demand-side measures to help China “effectively manage peak demand pressures without compromising its climate commitments”.

Renewable energy pushed thermal power into decline

THERMAL DECLINE: A surge in solar power and hydropower in China in May led to a 4.3% decline in thermal power – mainly coal –  that month, Bloomberg reported, adding that this supported earlier Carbon Brief analysis finding China’s emissions may fall this year. The drop in thermal power was the largest since 2022 and could continue as long as China does not “reprioritise carbon-heavy investment to revive growth”, the outlet added. Hydropower generation rose 38.6% year-on-year in May 2024 and solar by 29.1%, state-run industry newspaper China Energy Net said.

SOLAR CAPACITY: China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) pledged in a press conference to “guide production capacity expansion” and “prevent unnecessary investments” in the country’s solar manufacturing sector, following a call for help from industry participants “grappl[ing] with a surge in capacity”, according to finance newswire Yicai. Economic news outlet Jiemian quoted Li Chuangjun, director of the NEA’s new energy and renewable energy department, saying at the press conference that the industry should “avoid repetitive construction of low-end solar capacity”. 

NO OVERCAPACITY?: NEA head Zhang Jianhua said at the same press conference that “whether from the perspective of comparative advantage or of global market demand, China’s new energy industry does not have a so-called ‘overcapacity’ problem”, state-run newspaper Science and Technology Daily reported. Zhang added that “supply moderately exceeding demand is helpful for achieving technological progress and reducing product costs”, and that the solar industry specifically is characterised by a strong private sector, “sufficient” competition and companies “choosing to expand production” due to “optimistic outlooks towards future markets”, according to the newspaper. 

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EU and China to discuss electric vehicle tariffs

NEW TALKS: After expressing opposition to the EU’s additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and announcing an anti-dumping investigation into pork products from the EU, China agreed to a new discussion over the tariffs this week, the Financial Times reported. Bloomberg said the talks “may buy time” for China to “sow enough opposition” between EU member states, as Beijing suggested German luxury automakers “could benefit if Berlin convinces the EU to drop tariffs”. 

MIDDLEMAN GERMANY?: Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck, who visited China last weekend, showed there was an “open attitude of China and some politicians in the EU in seeking dialogue and cooperation amid trade friction”, said a Global Times’ editorial. Habeck said the EU’s tariffs measures were “not a punishment” and its “doors are open for discussions”, Reuters reported. The German Chamber of Commerce in East China, a business advocacy group, also argued that the EU tariffs “cannot offer protection to German carmakers or increase their competitiveness”, SCMP reported. Reuters said that China’s share of Germany’s EV imports rose to 40.9% in the first quarter of this year.

CHINA COMPROMISE?: China’s state-controlled Global Times newspaper wrote “observers said the best outcome the Chinese side wants is that the EC, the executive body of the EU, scrap its tariff decision before 4 July and abide by WTO rules”. Another state-run newspaper China Daily said in an editorial that Beijing is “willing…to try and resolve the reasonable concerns of the EU” and hopes that Brussels will avoid escalating frictions “by meeting China halfway”. In an interview with the Financial Times, Zhu Min, a member of China’s “five-year plan” committee, argued there was no “overcapacity” or “dumping” of cheap EVs on the European market. He said the price of EVs is higher overseas than in the domestic market and that China’s domestic buyer rebate also applied to foreign EV brands, such as Tesla in China, added the outlet. 

EU-China climate dialogue and Li’s new commitment

CHINA-EU TALKS: Amid their ongoing tariff dispute, China and the EU held the fifth “high-level environment and climate dialogue” on 18 June, said Xinhua. The Chinese vice premier Ding Xuexiang and the European Commission’s Maroš Šefčovič agreed there were “common interests” and discussed “climate change and protecting the ecological environment”, the state news agency continued. Ding also said the EU’s tariff plan was “typical protectionism” which is “not conducive to the EU’s green transformation”, added the agency. China’s minister of ecology and environment, Huang Runqiu, and the EU’s commissioner for climate action, Wopke Hoekstra, signed “an updated memorandum of understanding to enhance cooperation on emissions trading”, the Chinese International Environment Net reported.  

PREMIER’S REMARKS: The Chinese premier Li Qiang announced yesterday that “China is committed to addressing climate change and has been proactively developing green industries such as new energy” at the World Economic Forum’s “summer Davos” meetings in Dalian, China, Xinhua reported. Li said “the green transition itself holds immense potential for development” and that all nations should “create more growth drivers for the green economy”, added Xinhua. Reuters said Li also “hit back” at overcapacity accusations from the US and EU, arguing that China’s production of clean energy technologies “first met our domestic demand, but also enrich[es] global supply”. At a domestic conference, president Xi encouraged technology innovation and said Chinese EVs “add[ed] new momentum to the global automotive industry”, according to Xinhua

Spotlight 

How is China adapting to increasingly frequent flooding?

In recent years, China has seen more frequent floods caused by heavy rains. Dozens of people have died in south China this month due to torrential rain and flooding. In April, floods caused damage worth 12bn yuan ($1.65bn) – “the worst [losses] in 10 years”.

In this issue, Carbon Brief looks at the reasons for China’s recent floods and how the country is trying to adapt. A full version of this article will be published on Carbon Brief’s website.

Rising floods

There are various factors behind the frequent heavy rain and flooding in China in recent years.

In a press briefing covered by China Daily, Zheng Zhihai, chief forecaster at the National Climate Centre of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), said that “higher than normal temperatures” were behind frequent heavy rainfall in southern provinces since April.

China Daily noted: “This temperature increase has elevated the atmospheric moisture levels, intensified convective processes, and led to more frequent occurrences of heavy rainfall.”

Sea level rise has also been cited as a primary factor behind China’s coastal floods, as it increases the intensity and frequency of storm surges and raises baseline water levels.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a natural climate cycle that entered its warmer El Niño phase in mid 2023, was partly to blame as it raised sea surface temperatures and directed vast amounts of water vapour from the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal towards southern China, found one analysis

Dr Faith Chan, head of the School of Geographical Sciences at the University of Nottingham Ningbo China, told Carbon Brief that the rainfall pattern in Guangdong during this April was quite similar to the intensive rainstorm on 6-8 September in 2023 after Typhoon Haikui.

In addition to the natural causes, human activity also played a role. Chan said:

“Of course, the El Niño effect enhanced the wet and low-pressure moist current in the east coast of China and the west Pacific. But human-induced climate change led to the greenhouse effect and caused sea temperature to rise, which caused more storms and low-pressure rain belts. That is a fact.”

Indeed, Prof Yang Chen of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences told Carbon Brief that human-caused intensification of heavy rainfall over China had been even larger than expected.

Adaptation measures

China has built a number of large water projects to prevent flooding, such as the south-north water transfer projects in the Yangtze river that was launched in 2002. 

In the most recent “national water network construction planning outline” published by the State Council  – China’s top administrative authority – constructing “national water networks” by 2035 is labelled as the “backbones” of future flood prevention. 

China also launched the “sponge city programme (SCP)” in 2015.

Sponge cities cost the government 1.5–1.8bn yuan ($210-250m) between 2015 and 2018. They are designed to collect, purify and re-use at least 70% of the floodwaters through “green-blue facilities”, such as green roofs, permeable pavements and stormwater parks, in urban areas. The overall system was meant to resolve the issues of urban heating, freshwater scarcity and flooding all at once.

But the 2021 floods in Zhengzhou, a showcase sponge city, laid bare the inadequacy of the SCP in the face of climate change. 

A paper suggested the SCP, which is designed to withstand one-in-30-year rain events, has limited effectiveness against more intense downpours. 

Additionally, SCP can create a false sense of security, which encourages more people to move to high-risk areas, leading to an increase in population and assets in exposed areas that require ever-increasing protection in a cycle referred to as a “levee effect”, said Chen.

Meanwhile, a lack of coordination added another layer of difficulties. Zheng Yan, researcher at China Academy of Social Sciences, noted in the aftermath of the 2023 Beijing flood that government bodies often looked after their own jurisdiction and aimed only to move the problem and divert the floods quickly, which piled pressure on cities in downstream areas.

Looking abroad

As flooding is a challenge faced by cities across the world, there is a plethora of ideas and technologies that China can draw on.

Rotterdam, a Dutch delta city of 600,000 people that is surrounded by water on four sides, has built water storage facilities, such as an underground parking garage with a basin the size of four Olympic swimming pools. It has also installed green roofs and facades to absorb rainwater.

Japan has built an intricate network of concrete tunnels and vaults about 14 storeys beneath the Saitama prefecture in the outskirts of Tokyo, Japan’s capital city, that could hold more than 1,000 Olympic pools of rainwater. 

Both cities’ underground flood diversion facilities are often used as a prime example of a viable flood defence system for urban cities on the frontline of climate change.

Hong Kong has a similar underground stormwater storage system beneath the sport pitches of the Happy Valley Racecourse, designed to withstand one-in-50-years flood events. 

Chan said it is difficult to compare flood mitigation measures as each city is very different in terms of geography, demographic, densities and topography.

Nevertheless, he told Carbon Brief:

“In my opinion, China’s megacities should think about using underground spaces to store the sudden extreme discharge from super intensive rainstorms…Tokyo and Rotterdam are quite wise in that regard for using their underground spaces.”

This Spotlight is written by freelance climate journalist Jia Ning Tan for Carbon Brief.

Watch, read, listen

CHINA IN SPACE: The Economist’s “The Intelligence” podcast aired an episode about China becoming a “superpower” in the physical sciences.

RUSSIA-CHINA PIPELINE: A Financial Times podcast said Russia and China are “deadlocked” over a gas pipeline deal.  

FARMING LAND: The Chinese communist party’s magazine Qiu Shi published an article by Hunan province’s communist theory study group on protecting arable land and the “political responsibilities” related to it. 

CARBON FOOTPRINT: Finance outlet Southern Finance Omnimedia’s social media account 21 Low Carbon published an explanation of China’s new “national unified carbon footprint management system”.


$940m

The total value of an international “sustainability bond” issued by the Bank of China for investment in “renewable energy, sustainable water resources and wastewater management infrastructure projects” in the countries that joined China’s Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI). (The total value of loans for BRI countries reached $87bn in 2016 and $3.7bn in 2021.)


New science 

A comparative review of methane policies of the US and China in the context of US – China climate cooperation

Climate Policy

China and the US – two of the world’s biggest methane emitters – should make their methane policies more “climate-centric”, according to a new study. Existing policies relating to methane are concentrated in the energy sector and are “largely driven” by safety, pollution concerns and use of resources, rather than reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the study said. The researchers suggested that both countries should focus on methane mitigation and “consider more climate-centric policies”.

Warming climate apathy to mitigate the disparity in climate policy support across distinct income strata

Energy Policy  

The Chinese government has employed economic incentives to offset the financial impact of the clean energy transition, but “these measures may not fully address the underlying issue of climate apathy, wherein individuals prioritise immediate interests over long-term climate concerns”, a new study said. Surveying 4,700 Chinese adults each year for three years, the study found that those on low incomes were less likely to support climate policy, with “climate apathy” explaining a much larger share of this effect – some 38% – than “economic burden”, which only explained 8% of the effect on policy support. The authors concluded: “Addressing climate apathy is a cost-effective strategy to boost policy support.”

Investigating the impact of weather on stroke in summer

International Journal of Biometeorology

A new study collected data of stroke hospitalisation in the city of Tianjin, China, from 2016 to summer 2022. The study found a direct link between temperature extremes and hospitalisation: “83% of the Inpatient-heavy events within the study period were caused by a combination of dramatic temperature changes and continuous high temperatures.” The authors concluded: “More attention should be paid to the combined effects of continuous high temperature and sudden temperature changes in summer stroke prevention.”

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 27 June 2024: Extreme weather; New talks on EV tariffs; Coal power decline appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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Carbon Brief Quiz 2026: Picture Round 1 and 2

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All answers will need to be submitted via the Google form by the end of the half-time break

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Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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Rudecindo Espíndola’s family has been growing corn, figs and other crops for generations in the Soncor Valley in northern Chile, an oasis of green orchards in one of the driest places on Earth the Atacama desert.

Perched nearly 2,500 metres above sea level, his village, Toconao, means “lost corner” in the Kunza language of the Indigenous people who have lived and farmed the land in this remote spot for millennia.

“Our deep connection to this place is based on what we have inherited from our ancestors: our culture, our language,” said Espíndola, a member of a local research team that found evidence that people have inhabited the desert for more than 12,000 years.

This distant outpost is at the heart of the global rush for lithium, a silvery-white metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage that are vital to the world’s clean energy transition. The Atacama salt flat is home to about 25% of the world’s known lithium reserves, turning Chile into the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia.

For decades, the Atacama’s Indigenous Lickanantay people have protested against the expansion of the lithium industry, warning that the large evaporation ponds used to extract lithium from the brine beneath the salt flats are depleting scarce and sacred water supplies and destroying fragile desert ecosystems.

Espíndola joined the protests, fearing that competition for water could pose an existential threat to his community.

But last year, he was among dozens of Indigenous representatives who sat across the table from executives representing two Chilean mining giants to hammer out a governance model that gives Indigenous communities living close to lithium sites a bigger say over operations, and a greater share of the economic benefits.

A man wearing a black T-shirt and a hat stands in front of a tree
Rudecindo Espíndola stands in a green oasis near the village of Toconao in the Atacama desert (Photo: Francisco Parra)

A pioneering deal

The agreement is part of a landmark deal between state-owned copper miner Codelco and lithium producer the Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) to extract lithium from the salt flats until 2060 through a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio.

The governance model that promises people living in Toconao and other villages around the salt flats millions of dollars in benefits and greater environmental oversight is the first of its kind in mineral-rich Chile, and has been hailed by industry experts as the start of a potential model for more responsible mining for energy transition metals.

NovaAndino told Climate Home News the negotiations with local communities represented an “unprecedented process that has allowed us to incorporate the territory’s vision early in the project’s design” and creates “a system of permanent engagement” with local communities.

The company added it will contribute to sustainable development in the area and help “the safeguarding of [the Lickanantay people’s] culture and environmental values”.

    For mining companies, such agreements could help reduce social conflicts and protests, which have delayed and stalled extraction in other parts of South America’s lithium-rich region, known as the lithium triangle.

    “Argentina and Bolivia could learn a lot from what we’re doing [here],” said Rodrigo Guerrero, a researcher at the Santiago-based Espacio Público think-tank, adding that adopting participatory frameworks early on could prevent them from “going through the entire cycle of disputes” that Chile has experienced.

    Justice at last?

    As part of the governance deal, NovaAndino has pledged to adopt technologies that will reduce water use and mitigate the environmental impacts of lithium extraction.

    It has also committed to hold more than 100 annual meetings with community representatives to build a “good faith” relationship, and an Indigenous Advisory Council will meet twice a year with the company’s sustainability committee to discuss its environmental strategy, company sources said. The meetings are due to begin next month.

    To oversee the agreement’s implementation, an assembly – composed of representatives from all 25 signatory communities – will track the project’s progress. In addition, NovaAndino will hold one-on-one meetings with each community to address issues such as the hiring of local people and the protection of Indigenous employees.

    A flamingo at the Chaxa Lagoon in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Espíndola said the deal, while far from perfect, was an important step forward.

    “Previously, Indigenous participation was ambiguous. Now we talk about participation at [every] hierarchical level of this process, a very strong empowerment for Indigenous communities,” said Espíndola, adding that it did not give local communities everything they had asked for. For instance, they will not hold veto power over NovaAndino’s decisions or have a formal shareholder role.

    But after years of conflict with mining companies, a form of “participatory justice is being done”, he said.

    Not everyone is convinced that the accord, pushed by Chile’s former leftist government, marks progress, however.

    “Not in our name”

    The negotiations have caused deep divisions among the Lickanantay, some of whom say greater engagement with mining companies will not stop irreparable damage to the salt flats on which their traditional way of life depends. Others fear the promise of more money will further erode community bonds.

    In January 2024, Indigenous communities from five villages closest to the mining operations, including Toconao, blocked the main access roads to the lithium extraction sites. They said the Council of Atacameño Peoples, which represents 18 Lickanantay communities and was leading discussions with the company, no longer spoke for them.

    Official transcripts of consultations on the extension of the lithium contracts and how to share the promised benefits reveal deep divisions. Tensions peaked when communities around the mining operations clashed over how to distribute the multimillion-dollar windfall, with villages closest to the mining sites demanding the largest share.

    Eventually, separate deals establishing a new governance framework over mining activities were reached between Codelco and SQM with 25 local communities, including a specific agreement for the five villages closest to the extraction sites.

    Codelco’s chairman Maximo Pacheco (Photo: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido)

    The division caused by the separate deal for the five villages “will cause historic damage” to the unity of the Atacama desert’s Indigenous peoples, said Hugo Flores, president of the Council of Atacameño Associations, a separate group representing farmers, herders and local workers who oppose the mining expansion.

    Sonia Ramos, 83, a renowned Lickanantay healer and well-known anti-mining activist, lamented the fracturing of social bonds over money, and for the sake of meeting government objectives.

    “There is fragmentation among the communities themselves. Everything has transformed into disequilibrium,” said the 83-year-old.

    “[NovaAndino] supposedly has economic significance for the country, but for us, it is the opposite,” she said.

    The company told Climate Home News it has “acted consistently” to promote “transparent, voluntary, and good-faith dialogue with the communities in the territory, recognising their diversity and autonomy, and always respecting their timelines and forms of participation”.

    A one-off deal or a model for others?

    The NovaAndino joint venture is a pillar of Chile’s strategy to double lithium production by 2031 and consolidate the copper-producing nation’s role in the clean energy transition as demand for battery minerals accelerates.

    Chile’s new far-right president, José Antonio Kast, who was sworn in last week, promised to respect the lithium contracts signed by his predecessor’s administration – including the governance model.

    Still, some experts say the splits over the new model highlight the need for legislation that mandates direct engagement and minimum community benefits for all large mining projects.

    “In the past, this has lent itself to clientelism, communities who negotiate best or arrive first get the better deal,” said Pedro Zapata, a programme officer in Chile for the Natural Resource Governance Institute.

    “This can be to the detriment of other communities with less strength. We cannot have first- and second-class citizens subject to the same industry,” he added.

    The government is already negotiating two more public-private partnerships to extract lithium with mining giant Rio Tinto, which it said would include a framework to engage with Indigenous communities and share some of the revenues. The details will need to be negotiated between local people, the government and the company.

    Sharing the benefits of mining

    Under the deal in the Atacama, NovaAndino will run SQM’s current lithium concessions until they expire in 2030 before seeking new permits to expand mining in the region under a vast project known as “Salar Futuro” – a process which will require further mandatory consultations with communities.

    Besides the participatory mechanism, the new agreement promises more money than ever before for salt flat communities.

    A stone arch welcomes visitors to the village of Peine, one of the closest settlements to lithium mining sites in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Depending on the global price of lithium and their proximity to the mining operations, Indigenous communities could collectively receive roughly $30 million annually in funding – about double what SQM currently disburses under existing contracts.

    When taking into account the company’s payments to local and regional authorities, contributions could reach $150 million annually, according to the government.

    To access these resources, each community will need to submit a pipeline of projects they would like funding for under a complex arrangement that includes five separate financial streams:

    • A general investment fund will distribute funding based on each village’s size and proximity to the mining sites
    • A development fund will support projects specifically in the five communities closest to the extraction sites
    • Contributions to farmers and livestock associations
    • Contributions to local governments
    • A groundbreaking “intergenerational fund” held in trust for the Lickanantay until 2060

    For many isolated communities in the Atacama desert, financial contributions from mining firms have funded essential public services, such as healthcare and facilities like football pitches and swimming pools.

    In the past, communities have used some of the benefits they received from mining to build their own environmental monitoring units, hiring teams of hydrogeologists and lawyers to scrutinise miners’ activities.

    Espíndola said the new model could pave the way for more ambitious development projects such as water treatment plants and community solar energy projects.

    A man in a white shirt and glasses stands in front of a stone wall
    Sergio Cubillos, president of the Peine community, was one of the Indigenous representatives in the negotiations with Codelco and SQM (Photo credit: Formando Rutas/ Daniela Carvajal)

    Competition for water

    The depletion of water resources is one of local people’s biggest environmental concerns.

    To extract lithium from the salt flats, miners pump lithium-rich brine accumulated over millions of years in underground reservoirs into gigantic pools, where the water is left to evaporate under the sun and leaves behind lithium carbonate.

    One study has shown that the practice is causing the salt flat to sink by up to two centimetres a year. SQM recently said its current operations consume approximately 11,500 to 12,500 litres of industrial freshwater for every metric ton of lithium produced.

    NovaAndino has committed to significantly reduce the company’s water use by returning at least 30% of the water it extracts from the brine and eliminating the use of all freshwater in its operations within five years of obtaining an environmental permit.

      Cristina Dorador, a microbiologist at the University of Antofagasta, told Climate Home News that reinjecting the water underground is untested at a large scale and could impact the chemical composition of the salt flats.

      Continuing to extract lithium from the flats until 2060 could be the “final blow” for this fragile ecosystem, she said.

      Asked to comment on such concerns, NovaAndino said any new technology will be “subject to the highest regulatory standards”, and pledged to ensure transparency through “an updated monitoring system with the participation of Indigenous communities”.

      High price for hard-won gains

      For the five communities living on the doorstep of the lithium pools, one of the biggest gains is being granted physical access to the mining sites to monitor the lithium extraction and its impact on the salt flats.

      That is a first and will strengthen communities’ ability to call out environmental harms, said Sergio Cubillos, the community president of Peine, the village closest to the evaporation ponds. It could also give them the means to seek remediation through the courts if necessary, Espíndola said.

      Gaining such rights represents long-overdue progress, Cubillos said, but it has come at a high price for the Lickanantay people.

      “Communities receiving money today is what has ultimately led to this division, because we haven’t been able to figure out what we want, how we want it, and how we envision our future as a people,” he said.

      Main image: A truck loads concentrated brine at SQM’s lithium mine at the Atacama salt flat in Chile (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado)

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      Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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      Diplomats will hold a series of informal meetings this year in a bid to revive stalled talks over a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, before aiming to reconvene for the next round of official negotiations at the end of 2026 or early 2027.

      Hoping to find a long-awaited breakthrough in the deeply divided UN process, the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, released a roadmap on Monday to inject momentum into the discussions after negotiations collapsed at a chaotic session in Geneva last August.

      Cordano wrote in a letter that countries would meet in Nairobi from June 30 to July 3 for informal discussions to review all the components of the negotiations, including thorny issues such as efforts to limit soaring plastic production.

        The gathering should result in the drafting of a new document laying the foundations of a future treaty text with options on elements with divergent views, but “no surprises” such as new ideas or compromise proposals. This plan aims to address the fact that countries left Geneva without a draft text to work on – something Cordano called a “significant limitation” in his letter.

        “Predictable pathway”

        The meeting in the Kenyan capital will follow a series of virtual consultations every four to six weeks, where heads of country delegations will exchange views on specific topics. A second in-person meeting aimed at finding solutions might take place in early October, depending on the availability of funding.

        Cordano said the roadmap should offer “a predictable pathway” in the lead-up to the next formal negotiating session, which is expected to take place over 10 days at the end of 2026 or early 2027. A host country has yet to be selected, but Climate Home News understands that Brazil, Azerbaijan or Kenya – the home of the UN Environment Programme – have been put forward as options.

        Countries have twice failed to agree on a global plastics treaty at what were meant to be final rounds of negotiations in December 2024 and August 2025.

        Divisions on plastic production

        One of the most divisive elements of the discussions remains what the pact should do about plastic production, which, according to the UN, is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.

        A majority, which includes most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations, wants to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”. But large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, say the treaty should only focus on managing plastic waste.

        As nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a significant impact on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

        Countries still far apart

        After an eight-month hiatus, informal discussions restarted in early March at an informal meeting of about 20 countries hosted by Japan.

        A participant told Climate Home News that, while the gathering had been helpful to test ideas, progress remained “challenging”, with national stances largely unchanged.

        The source added that countries would need to achieve a significant shift in positions in the coming months to make reconvening formal negotiations worthwhile.

        Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting

        Jacob Kean-Hammerson, global plastics policy lead at Greenpeace USA, said the new roadmap offers an opportunity for countries to “defend and protect the most critical provisions on the table”.

        He said that the document expected after the Nairobi meeting “must include and revisit proposals backed by a large number of countries, especially on plastic production, that have previously been disregarded”.

        “These measures are essential to addressing the crisis at its source and must be reinstated as a key part of the negotiations,” he added.

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