The lithium market has entered a period of price decline, mainly because of weaker demand conditions and an oversupply of lithium carbonate in key regions.
In October, seaborne lithium carbonate prices for Asia dropped by 3.8%, hovering around $10,000 per metric ton, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis.

The price dip reflects the seasonal winding down of demand typically seen at the end of the year when electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers prepare for a slowdown in post-peak sales. While September saw relative price stability, October’s downward shift reveals how the supply chain dynamics are pressing lithium markets. This is especially true in China’s case, which has been the dominant player in global EV sales in 2024.
- The slowdown underscores the lithium market’s key issue: maintaining demand growth and stabilizing prices amid fluctuating EV sales patterns.
China’s lithium market, the largest globally, saw prices fall by 3.3% in October, settling at about 73,000 yuan per ton. While a brief rebound was observed toward the end of the month, prices continue to reflect the underlying pressures of oversupply. This surplus is compounded by high inventories and the slower-than-expected uptake in EV markets outside of China.
The global market’s current inability to absorb excess supply effectively sets the tone for a persistent price slump, possibly extending into the next several years.
Li-FT Power: Exploring & Developing Hard Rock Lithium Deposits In Canada
Li-FT Power Ltd. (TSXV: LIFT) recently announced its first-ever National Instrument 43-101 (NI 43-101) compliant mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Yellowknife Lithium Project (YLP), located in the Northwest Territories, Canada.
An Initial Mineral Resource of 50.4 Million Tonnes at Yellowknife.
This maiden estimate is a major milestone for the company and marks a significant step forward in the project’s development. Li-FT Power’s upcoming mineral resource is expected to further solidify Yellowknife as one of North America’s largest hard rock lithium resources.
Click to learn more about lithium and Li-FT Power Ltd. >>
Strategic Adjustments Among Lithium Producers
In response to these challenges, major lithium producers are taking action to manage costs and production levels.
Companies like Sinomine Resource Group have opted to cut production in higher-cost regions. In Zimbabwe, for instance, Sinomine has minimized its petalite mining operations to prioritize spodumene extraction, which has a lower production cost. This shift reflects a broader industry trend, where companies focus on streamlining their operations to protect profit margins as market prices dip.
Another significant strategic move within the industry was the recent acquisition of Arcadium Lithium by Rio Tinto. It is a substantial shift in the company’s approach to the lithium sector. This acquisition is particularly important for Rio Tinto as it extends the company’s footprint in lithium production beyond its existing projects in Serbia and Argentina, allowing it to target markets outside of China more effectively.
One of Arcadium’s main competitive advantages lies in its exploration of direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology. DLE can revolutionize the lithium market by unlocking reserves in brine deposits previously considered difficult to exploit using traditional methods.
Presently, there are 13 DLE projects in operation, with total output projected to reach about 124,000 tonnes in 2024. According to Benchmark’s data, DLE technology can account for 14% of the global lithium supply by 2035, producing around 470,000 tonnes of LCE. This growth underscores the increasing role of DLE in meeting lithium demand for battery and EV markets.

Global Investments and Expanding Lithium Supply Chain
Investments in lithium production continue to grow despite the current market downturn, which signals optimism about long-term demand.
In October, General Motors made a notable move by increasing its stake in the Lithium Nevada project to 38% with an additional $625 million investment. This initiative speaks of a long-term commitment to secure local lithium supplies. It aligns with the U.S. government’s strategic push to strengthen domestic EV battery production and reduce reliance on imports.
The U.S. Department of Energy has already extended a substantial loan of $2.26 billion to support phase 1 construction of this project. The figure reveals the critical importance of domestic lithium resources for national energy goals.
While traditional methods dominate current production, the lithium market is also increasingly exploring technological advancements. General Motors and other industry stakeholders are actively pursuing direct extraction methods to unlock challenging lithium deposits.
By experimenting with DLE, the U.S.-based Lithium Nevada project aims to reduce environmental impacts and shorten production timelines. These technological investments indicate that despite current pricing challenges, there’s confidence in lithium’s long-term demand potential. More so as EV adoption grows and global green energy transitions accelerate.
Long-Term Market Forecast and Expected Price Recovery
Looking ahead, lithium prices could remain in a tight range. S&P Global Commodity Insight’s forecasts suggest that the price of lithium carbonate will stay between $9,924 and $11,627 per metric ton until 2026. This projection reflects the industry’s cautious outlook as companies expect that demand growth will take time to balance the current surplus.
- Analysts predict that a substantial price recovery may not materialize until 2028, with a forecasted rise to $14,659 per metric ton, or about a 20.8% increase, as the market finally shifts into a deficit.

The expected long-term supply shortage is largely tied to the anticipated increase in EV adoption and the renewable energy transition. Both of these demand drivers require significant lithium resources.
However, automakers worldwide are adjusting their production strategies to balance profitability with sustainable growth. This brings uncertainty to the exact timing of the demand shift that will absorb today’s excess supply.
In summary, the lithium market in 2024 reflects a complex blend of challenges and opportunities. Prices remain low due to oversupply and fluctuating EV demand, especially outside of China, but the long-term outlook for lithium still holds promise.
The lithium industry’s ability to adapt to today’s market conditions will shape the future landscape of this essential resource, ensuring its place in the global shift toward a sustainable energy future.
The post Can the Lithium Market Overcome Falling Prices and Weak Demand in 2024? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments
Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.
1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project
Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.
This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.
CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.
2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain
The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?
Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.
Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.
The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.
3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply
WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.
The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.
The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.
The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.
4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward
Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?
Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.
SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.
For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.
Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.
5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions
Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.
Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.
Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.
A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.
6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision
Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.
Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.
Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.
This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.
Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC
Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.
Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.
Sources
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
- World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
- Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
Carbon Footprint
How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do
A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.
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Carbon Footprint
EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026
EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.
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