Antarctic sea ice is “behaving strangely” and might have entered a “new regime”, the director of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) tells Carbon Brief.
Following an all-time low maximum in September 2023, Antarctic sea ice has been tracking at near-record-low extent for the past six months. Last month, it hit its 2024 minimum extent, tying with 2022 for the second-lowest Antarctic minimum in the 46-year satellite record.
Dr Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC tells Carbon Brief that more warm ocean water is reaching the surface to melt ice and keep it from forming. He says that we “must wait and see” whether this is a “temporary effect” or whether the Antarctic has entered a “new regime”.
Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice has reached its maximum extent for the year, peaking at 15.01m square kilometres (km2) on 14 March. The provisional data from the NSIDC shows that this year’s Arctic winter peak, despite favourable winds that encouraged sea ice formation, was 640,000km2 smaller than the 1981-2010 average maximum.
This year’s maximum was the 14th lowest in the satellite record.
“Overall, the road remains downhill for Arctic sea ice, but it is quite bumpy along the way,” another scientist tells Carbon Brief. This relatively high winter peak is “notable and a good reminder that we have to communicate and account for this type of weather variability when we talk about Arctic climate change”, he says.
He adds that although the maximum is high compared to recent years, the ice is still “much thinner” than it was a few decades ago. The “wide coverage of this thinner ice” means total Arctic sea ice volume for the month of February was the third lowest on record.
Arctic winter peak
Arctic sea ice extent changes throughout the year. It grows each winter before reaching its peak for the year in February or March and then melts throughout the spring and summer towards its annual minimum, typically around September.
Using satellite data, scientists can track the growth and melt of sea ice, allowing them to determine the size of the ice sheet’s winter maximum and summer minimum extent. These are key metrics to monitor the “health” of the Arctic sea ice.
The NSIDC’s announcement says that this year’s Arctic winter peak of 15.01m is “below average”. Clocking in at 640,000km2 below the 1981-to-2010 average maximum extent, it ranks as the 14th lowest in the satellite record.
The NSIDC adds that the date of the maximum this year, 14 March, was two days later than the 1981-to-2010 average date of 12 March.
The plot below shows Arctic sea ice extent on 14 March, with the average sea ice extent for 1981-2010 shown by the orange line.
Arctic freeze
“The road remains downhill for Arctic sea ice, but it is quite bumpy along the way,” Dr Zack Labe – a postdoctoral researcher working at NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the atmospheric and oceanic sciences programme at Princeton University – tells Carbon Brief. He adds:
“While this winter was yet again consistent with the long-term trend toward a warmer Arctic with less ice, regional weather patterns can still contribute to ice expansion and slower net declines, especially if the winds align from a north-to-south direction.”
Arctic sea ice reached its minimum extent for 2023 on 19 September.
With an extent of 4.23m km2, this was the sixth-lowest minimum on record and 1.99m km2 below the average minimum recorded over 1981-2010.
Following its annual minimum, Arctic sea ice growth was “slower than average”, leading to the fifth-lowest September on record, according to the NSIDC.
Labe tells Carbon Brief that the freeze season started with “widespread open water across the Pacific side of the Arctic, with massive areas of ice missing north of Alaska”, which contributed to “well-above-average temperatures” in the region.
Throughout October, however, sea ice extent increased by 119,800km2 per day – faster than the 1981-2010 average of 89,200km2 per day, according to the NSIDC.
The Arctic freeze up was “particularly rapid” in the seas around Siberia. By the end of October, the ice cover had reached the Siberian coast, although open water remained in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.
Air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean, around 2,500 feet above surface level, were mostly above average during October – particularly in and around the Canadian Archipelago, which saw temperatures of 4-5C above average.
Labe tells Carbon Brief that, overall, the Arctic winter can be characterised by “unusual warmth in the northern Arctic, but greater total ice extent”. This “counterintuitive” dynamic was caused by atmospheric circulation patterns, which led to “warmer, moist air blowing toward the north pole, while northerly winds contribute to expanding ice in the Greenland Sea and Sea of Okhotsk”, he says.
Throughout November, Arctic sea ice extent continued to increase faster than average. However, the NSIDC says the freeze up “temporarily stalled” for around five days from 22 November, as a series of three tropical cyclones brought warm, moist air into the north Atlantic.
The NSIDC says that a combination of low pressure to the north and west of Svalbard and a high-pressure centre to the south-east “created a strong, persistent flow from the south of relatively warm and moist air from the north Atlantic Ocean toward Svalbard”.
This flow of air can be seen as “an extension of an atmospheric river into the Arctic”, it says. It adds that the strong winds “helped to push the ice edge in the east Greenland and Barents seas northwards, limiting new ice formation”.
The NSIDC notes that pauses in Arctic sea ice freeze up have happened in November before, in 2013 and 2016, making such events “rare, but not unknown”.
Arctic sea ice extent continued to increase “markedly faster” than usual throughout December, the NSIDC says. It adds that “sea ice formation in Hudson Bay was unusually late, but the ice cover expanded quickly from west to east in mid-December”.
For December overall, 2023 saw the third-highest monthly gain on record, with 2.71m km2 of sea ice extent added throughout the month. Average Arctic sea ice extent over December 2023 was the ninth lowest in the satellite record, at 12m km2.
Arctic sea ice extent continued to move down the rankings as the new year rolled in, despite slower-than-average ice growth. In fact, the NSIDC says that Arctic sea ice extent actually declined for a few days at the end of the month, although it notes that this is “not unusual at this time of year” and says it is “caused by weather systems that temporarily halt ice growth or push the ice northwards”.
The average Arctic sea ice extent for January 2024 was 13.92m km2 – the 20th lowest on record.
This comparatively high sea ice extent is “notable and a good reminder that we have to communicate and account for this type of weather variability when we talk about Arctic climate change”, Labe tells Carbon Brief.
Arctic sea ice extent continued to grow throughout February, gaining 15.3m km2 of ice throughout the month. The February 2024 extent of 14.61m km2 was 690,000km2 below the 1981-2010 February average extent, and tied with 2022 as the 15th lowest on record, according to the NSIDC.
Temperatures are usually “well-below freezing” over the Arctic Ocean in February, but the NSIDC notes that in 2024, they were not as low as usual for the time of year. Over the central Arctic ocean, air temperatures at 2,500 feet above sea level were up to 10C warmer than average.
Labe notes that although sea ice extent was high compared to recent years, the ice is still “much thinner” than it was a few decades ago:
“Total Arctic sea-ice volume ended up as the third lowest on record for the month of February due to the wide coverage of this thinner ice.”
Variability and long-term decline of February #Arctic sea-ice thickness and sea-ice volume… (anomalously low for 2024)
+ Data information: https://t.co/PTJWaGkNua pic.twitter.com/a51VTWKFVA
— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) March 10, 2024
Antarctic ‘behaving strangely’
Meanwhile, at the Earth’s other pole, Antarctic sea ice hit its summer minimum sea ice extent on 20 February. With an extent of 1.99m km2, this year’s minimum ties with 2022 as the second-lowest on record, the NSIDC reports.
The plot below shows Antarctic sea ice extent on 20 February 2024, with the median sea ice extent for 1981-2010 shown by the orange line.
The Antarctic minimum was 850,000km2 smaller than the 1981-to-2010 average summer low of 2.84m km2, but 200,000km2 larger than the previous record low set on 21 February 2023.
This year marks the third consecutive minimum Antarctic sea ice extent below 2m km2. The table below shows the five years with the lowest minimum Antarctic sea ice extent on record, which includes 2022, 2023 and 2024 towards the top.
| Rank | Year | Minimum ice extent (m km2) | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2023 | 1.79 | 21 Feb |
| 2 | 2022 | 1.98 | 25 Feb |
| 2= | 2024 | 1.99 | 20 Feb |
| 4 | 2017 | 2.11 | 3 March |
| 5 | 2018 | 2.22 | 21 Feb |
“The Antarctic has been behaving strangely,” Dr Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, tells Carbon Brief. He continues:
“In the past few years, [southern hemisphere] summer extent has dropped to record lows. Before that, we saw record highs! What has changed?
“The answer seems to lie in the ocean – more warm water getting up the the surface to melt ice or keep it from forming. Is this a temporary effect, or, as many have argued, have we entered a ‘new regime’ in which the ocean will continue to strongly affect the sea ice? Again, we must wait and see.”
Record-breaking Antarctic extent
Antarctic sea ice has been tracking at or near record-low levels for months.
The Antarctic set a record-low maximum on 10 September 2023, with an extent of 16.96m km2. This was “the lowest sea ice maximum in the 1979 to 2023 sea ice record by a wide margin”, and one of the earliest, the NSIDC says.
Antarctic conditions over 2023 were “truly exceptional” and “completely outside the bounds of normality”, one expert told Carbon Brief.
As 2023 progressed, Antarctic sea ice melt was “slower than average”, the NSIDC says. The total decline in Antarctic sea ice extent through October was 903,000km2, while the October average was 985,000km2.
Nevertheless, Antarctic sea ice extent continued to track at a record low. On 31 October 2023, Antarctic sea ice extent was still tracking at a record-low of 15.79m km2. This is 750,000km2 below the previous 31 October record low.
The decline in Antarctic sea ice paused for a few days from 9 November, allowing sea ice extent to creep above the November 2016 value, the NSIDC says. This marked the first time that the daily 2023 Antarctic sea ice extent was not the lowest in the record since early May 2023. By the start of December, Antarctic sea ice extent was again at a record low, it notes.
The Antarctic saw in the new year with a sea ice extent of 6.37m km2, marking the sixth-lowest New Year’s Day Antarctic sea ice extent on record, the NSIDC says. Ice melted rapidly throughout the month, and by the end of January, daily Antarctic sea ice extent reached 2.58m km2 – tying with 2017 for second lowest on record.
The post Antarctic sea ice ‘behaving strangely’ as Arctic reaches ‘below-average’ winter peak appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Antarctic sea ice ‘behaving strangely’ as Arctic reaches ‘below-average’ winter peak
Casting doubt on the determination that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare, he said, “we’re not accepting all of the narrative of the left without any question or pushback.”
WASHINGTON—Addressing a conference of scientists and other experts skeptical of climate change, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin on Wednesday celebrated his decision to repeal what is known as the “endangerment finding,” which provided the backbone for federal regulation of greenhouse gas emissions.
Zeldin Celebrates Endangerment Finding Repeal With Climate Skeptics
With the U.S. bombing Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closed, energy experts say countries transitioning to renewables will be more resilient in the “face of the shock.”
The United States’ war on Iran could fundamentally alter how countries consume and generate energy and hamper international progress in combating climate change, a panel of energy experts said today.
The Global Energy Supply in a Decade ‘Is Not a World We’re Going to Recognize’
One month into the US and Israel’s war on Iran, at least 60 countries have taken emergency measures in response to the subsequent global energy crisis, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.
So far, these countries have announced nearly 200 policies to save fuel, support consumers and boost domestic energy supplies.
Carbon Brief has drawn on tracking by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other sources to assess the global policy response, just as a temporary ceasefire is declared.
Since the start of the war in late February, both sides have bombed vital energy infrastructure across the region as Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz – a key waterway through which around a fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) trade passes.
This has made it impossible to export the usual volumes of fossil fuels from the region and, as a result, sent prices soaring.
Around 30 nations, from Norway to Zambia, have cut fuel taxes to help people struggling with rising costs, making this by far the most common domestic policy response to the crisis.
Some countries have stressed the need to boost domestic renewable-energy construction, while others – including Japan, Italy and South Korea – have opted to lean more on coal, at least in the short term.
The most wide-ranging responses have been in Asia, where countries that rely heavily on fossil fuels from the Middle East have implemented driving bans, fuel rationing and school closures in order to reduce demand.
‘Largest disruption’
On 28 February, the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, triggering conflict across the Middle East and sending shockwaves around the world.
There have been numerous assaults on energy infrastructure, including an Iranian attack on the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar and an Israeli bombing of Iran’s gas sites.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf, is causing what the IEA has called the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
A fifth of the world’s oil and LNG is normally shipped through this region, with 90% of those supplies going to destinations in Asia. Without these supplies, fuel prices have surged.
Governments around the world have taken emergency actions in response to this new energy crisis, shielding their citizens from price spikes, conserving energy where possible and considering longer-term energy policies.
Even with a two-week ceasefire announced, the energy crisis is expected to continue, given the extensive damage to infrastructure and continuing uncertainties.
Asian crunch
Carbon Brief has used tracking by the IEA, news reports, government announcements and internal monitoring by the thinktank E3G to assess the range of national responses to the energy crisis roughly one month into the Iran war.
In total, Carbon Brief has identified 185 relevant policies, announcements and campaigns from 60 national governments.
As the map below shows, these measures are concentrated in east and south Asia. These regions are facing the most extreme disruption, largely due to their reliance on oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.
Nations including Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and India are already spending billions of dollars on fuel subsidies to protect people from rising costs.
At least 16 Asian countries are also taking drastic measures to reduce fuel consumption. For example, the Philippines has declared a “state of national emergency”, which includes limiting air conditioning in public buildings and subsidising public transport.
Other examples from the region include the government in Bangladesh asking the public and businesses to avoid unnecessary lighting, Pakistan reducing the speed limit on highways and Laos encouraging people to work from home.
Europe – which was hit hard by the 2022 energy crisis due to its reliance on Russian gas – is less immediately exposed to the current crisis than Asia. However, many nations are still heavily reliant on gas, including supplies from Qatar.
The continent is already feeling the effects of higher global energy prices as countries compete for more limited resources.
At least 18 European nations have introduced measures to help people with rising costs. Spain, which is relatively insulated from the crisis due to the high share of renewables in its electricity supply, nevertheless announced a €5bn aid package, with at least six measures to support consumers.
Many African countries, while also less reliant on direct fossil-fuel supplies via the Strait of Hormuz than Asia, are still facing the strain of higher import bills. Some, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia, are also facing severe fuel shortages.
There have been fewer new policies across the Americas, which have been comparatively insulated from the energy crisis so far. One outlier is Chile, which is among the region’s biggest fuel importers and is, therefore, more exposed to global price increases.
Tax cuts
The most common types of policy response to the energy crisis so far have been efforts to protect people and businesses from the surge in fuel prices.
At least 28 nations, including Italy, Brazil and Australia, have introduced a total of 31 measures to cut taxes – and, therefore, prices – on fuel.
Even across Africa, where state revenues are already stretched, some nations – including Namibia and South Africa – are cutting fuel levies in a bid to stabilise prices.
Another 17 countries, including Mexico and Poland, have directly capped the price of fuel. Others, such as France and the UK, have opted for more targeted fuel subsidies, designed to support specific vulnerable groups and industries.
These measures are all shown in the dark blue “consumer support” bars in the chart below.
Such measures can directly help consumers, but some leaders, NGOs and financial experts have noted that there is also the risk of them driving inflation and reinforcing reliance on the existing fossil fuel-based system.
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, spoke in favour of short-term measures to “smooth the shock”, but noted that “broad-based and open-ended measures may add excessively to demand”.
Measures to conserve energy, of the type that many developing countries in Asia have implemented extensively, have been described by the IEA as “more effective and fiscally sustainable than broad-based subsidies”.
So far, there have been at least 23 such measures introduced to limit the use of transport, particularly private cars.
These include Lithuania cutting train fares, two Australian states making public transport free and Myanmar and South Korea asking people to only drive their cars on certain days.
Clean vs coal
At least eight countries have announced plans to either increase their use of coal or review existing plans to transition away from coal, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis. These include Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany and Italy.
These measures broadly involve delaying coal-plant closure, as in Italy, or allowing older sites to operate at higher rates, as in Japan – rather than building more coal plants.
There has been extensive coverage of how the energy crisis is “driving Asia back to coal”. However, as Bloomberg columnist David Fickling has noted, this shift is relatively small and likely to be offset by a move to cheap solar power in the longer term.
Indeed, some countries have begun to consider changes to the way they use energy going forward, amid a crisis driven by the spiralling costs of fossil-fuel imports.
Leaders in India, Barbados and the UK have explicitly stressed the importance of a structural shift to using clean power. Governments in France and the Philippines are among those linking new renewable-energy announcements with the unfolding crisis.
New renewable-energy capacity will take time to come online, albeit substantially less time than developing new fossil-fuel generation. In the meantime, some nations are also taking short-term measures to make their road transport less reliant on fossil fuels.
For example, the Chilean government has enabled taxi drivers to access preferential credit for purchasing electric vehicles (EVs). Cambodia has cut import taxes on EVs and Laos has lowered excise taxes on them.
Finally, there have been some signs that countries are reconsidering their future exposure to imported fossil fuels, given the current economics of oil and gas.
The New Zealand government has indicated that a plan to build a new LNG terminal by 2027 now faces uncertainty. Reuters reported that Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup has told the government it wanted to abandon a plan to build a new LNG-fired power plant in Vietnam, in favour of renewables.
The post Iran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Iran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis
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