Connect with us

Published

on

The Iran war has spurred a range of commentators to renew calls for the UK government to issue new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.

They argue that new domestic drilling could boost energy security at a time of volatility in major oil-and-gas producing countries in the Middle East.

However, such arguments overlook that the North Sea basin is in long-term decline and issuing new licences would only make a fractional difference to new production.

Carbon Brief analysis shows that the UK’s gas production in the North Sea is set to drop 99% by 2050, when compared to 2025 levels, with new licences pushing this figure down only slightly to 97%. (Oil production is also in long-term decline.)

Additionally, the analysis shows that the continued expansion of renewables and low-carbon technologies offers far greater protection against volatile gas imports than new domestic drilling.

The chart below shows how the roughly 15 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar power secured in the latest UK renewable-energy auction will avoid the need to import 78 “Q-Flex” tankers full of liquified natural gas (LNG) each year by 2030. This gas would cost roughly £4bn at current prices, which stood at 126p per therm as of 11 March.

(Gas can be either transported via pipelines or compressed into LNG and shipped across oceans, as is the case for gas coming into the UK from the US, Qatar or Algeria, for example.)

This is nearly six times more than the extra domestic gas production in 2030 if new licences are issued for North Sea drilling, according to Carbon Brief analysis of data from the UK government’s North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA).

Moreover, the 15GW of new renewables were secured in a single auction round. Another auction, likely to add significantly to this tally, is due to take place later in 2026.

Industry sources often stress the potential for the discovery of new North Sea reserves in the future. But, even if such discoveries were to materialise, they would take many years to start yielding gas, even as the UK moves away from fossil fuels altogether.

The number of LNG tanker deliveries of gas that could be avoided in 2030
The number of LNG tanker deliveries of gas that could be avoided in 2030, either due to clean technologies replacing the gas or by additional North Sea supplies replacing the imports. See below for methodology. Sources: Carbon Brief analysis of data from the North Sea Transition Authority and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. 

Other measures, such as replacing millions of gas boilers with heat pumps, would also be more effective at curbing the UK’s reliance on imports of foreign gas, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

Even changes to people’s behaviour, such as adjusting the “flow temperature” on gas boilers to save energy while maintaining comfort levels, would reduce gas demand significantly, if performed at scale.

The opposition Conservatives and the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party have called for more drilling in the North Sea. At the same time, they have pledged to end support for renewables, heat pumps and the UK’s legally binding target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, which was legislated by the Conservatives in 2019.

Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that this combination of actions – issuing new licenses for the North Sea while rolling back climate policies – would be very likely to increase the UK’s dependence on imported gas, rather than to reduce it.

(This is in line with analysis from the National Energy System Operator, NESO, which found that reaching the UK’s net-zero target would cut fossil-fuel imports, relative to a scenario that rowed back on climate action while boosting domestic fossil-fuel production.)

Industry lobby group Offshore Energies UK has commissioned statistical modelling that it says shows that more oil and gas could still be extracted from the North Sea than expected by the NSTA, if the government were to make various policy changes.

However, this modelling still shows a rapid decline in North Sea production.

After decades of drilling, the majority of reserves left in the North Sea are oil. Around 80% of oil produced in UK waters is currently exported to the global market.

The UN Emissions Gap Report in 2023 said that the coal, oil and gas extracted over the lifetime of producing and under-construction mines and fields, as of 2018, “would emit more than 3.5 times the carbon budget available” for meeting the Paris Agreement’s aspirational target of keeping global warming to no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

At the COP30 climate summit in Brazil in November 2025, the UK joined a group of more than 80 countries in calling for a global phaseout of fossil fuels.

Methodology

This analysis is based on additional UK domestic gas production or reduced gas demand in 2030 and is measured in terms of the number of LNG tanker deliveries avoided.

The estimate of additional gas production in 2030 is taken from the NSTA projections published in February 2026. The extra output is from NSTA’s “illustrative” estimates for the development of “undeveloped discoveries” and “future discoveries”.

The gas demand avoided by new wind and solar is based on the latest “AR7” auction for new renewables, the results of which were announced in early 2026. It assumes that offshore wind operates with a “load factor” of 50%, onshore wind at 36% and solar at 12%. The avoided gas demand is based on replacing gas-fired electricity generation.

For heat pumps, the estimate assumes a typical home with a gas demand of 11,500 kilowatt hours (kWh) per year, replacing an 85% efficient gas boiler with a 300% efficient heat pump.

It assumes that the electricity to power these heat pumps is drawn from the average mix of electricity generation in 2030. It also assumes that the “carbon intensity” of generation – the emissions per unit of output – falls to 50g of carbon dioxide per kWh, implying that roughly 12% of electricity generation is from gas.

The amount of gas avoided by switching to heat pumps would be roughly halved if all of these heat pumps drew all of their electricity needs from gas-fired power stations.

The post Analysis: Why clean energy will cut UK gas imports by more than North Sea drilling appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: Why clean energy will cut UK gas imports by more than North Sea drilling

Continue Reading

Climate Change

Major oil producers among 46 nations joining fossil fuel phase-out summit

Published

on

Forty-six countries, including major oil, coal and gas producers such as Canada, Australia, Brazil and Norway, have confirmed they will attend next month’s first conference on speeding up the global shift from fossil fuels, the Colombian government said on Tuesday.

The summit, being held in the Colombian port city of Santa Marta from April 24-29, aims to cement an international coalition of nations committed to ending the world’s reliance on planet-heating oil, coal and natural gas. 

The conference represents an “unprecedented opportunity” for the energy transition as it brings hydrocarbon-producing nations together with fossil fuel consumers and countries at the forefront of the climate crisis, Colombia’s acting environment minister, Irene Vélez Torres, said in a statement.

“Despite our differences, all participants agree on the need to prioritize science and to move forward, urgently and in a coordinated manner, toward phasing out the production and consumption of natural gas, coal, and oil,” she added.

    Who is going to Santa Marta?

    Canada is the largest fossil fuel producer confirmed to attend. The country accounts for roughly 6% of global oil output and 5% of gas production, with both sectors expanding over the past decade, according to the Energy Institute.

    Its powerful fossil fuel industry continues to push for increased production and new export markets, particularly in Asia. However, further investment risks creating stranded assets, according to a recent report by Carbon Tracker. Canada’s latest national climate plan did not include any concrete measures to curb its fossil fuel production.

    Australia will also be represented in Santa Marta as co-host of the COP31 climate summit. One of the world’s largest exporters of coal and liquefied natural gas, Australia supplies energy-hungry markets across Asia. The centre-left government led by Anthony Albanese has approved 36 new or extended fossil fuel projects since taking office in 2022, according to the Climate Council.

    Fellow COP31 co-host Turkey is also set to attend. Despite growing investment in renewables, the country remains heavily reliant on coal power. Murat Kurum, the incoming COP31 president, said last month that emissions cuts should not come at the expense of economic growth. “We cannot simplify things down to only fossil fuels,” he said.

    Norway, another participant, has built its wealth on oil and gas exports and has become a key supplier to Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While positioning itself as a climate leader, Norway argues its relatively low-emissions production can help meet demand during the transition, a stance critics say undermines global efforts to phase out fossil fuels.

    The list of participants also includes Brazil and Mexico, both among the world’s top oil producers; Angola, one of Africa’s leading oil exporters; Senegal, which only began producing oil two years ago; and Trinidad and Tobago, where hydrocarbons generate around half of government revenue. Vietnam remains heavily dependent on coal for power generation but is working with wealthy nations to accelerate a shift to renewables.

    Notably absent are the world’s largest fossil fuel producers and consumers, including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia, which together account for nearly half of global oil production. The biggest coal producers, China and India, are also not on the current list of participants.

    Attendees also include nations that are highly vulnerable to the climate crisis primarily caused by burning fossil fuels, including island nations Palau, Fiji and Vanuatu, and Sierra Leone.

    More momentum than commitments

    The Santa Marta conference is expected to deliver political momentum rather than binding commitments, with organisers aiming to launch a “coalition of the willing” to advance a fossil fuel phase-out outside the constraints of UN consensus negotiations.

    The outcomes of the summit are also expected to inform discussions at COP31, where an informal roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels drafted by the Brazilian COP30 team is expected to be delivered.

    Ugandan farmers use British court to try to stop East Africa oil pipeline

    Andreas Sieber, head of political strategy at campaign group 350.org, told Climate Home News that “starting with a coalition of doers creates momentum”.

    “This also comes at a critical point in time, when ordinary people bear the cost of fossil fuel volatility and geopolitical shocks,” he added. “These countries can demonstrate what credible transition looks like and compel others to follow”.

    Colombia’s Vélez Torres said last week that the global energy shock triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could give countries the chance to build a “new geopolitical balance” by boosting the transition away from fossil fuels.

    The post Major oil producers among 46 nations joining fossil fuel phase-out summit appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Major oil producers among 46 nations joining fossil fuel phase-out summit

    Continue Reading

    Climate Change

    Ocean Treaty passes Australian Parliament, a “historic moment” for nature protection

    Published

    on

    CANBERRA, Tuesday 31 March 2026 — Greenpeace Australia Pacific has welcomed the Parliament’s ratification of the Global Ocean Treaty, creating the opportunity for world-first high seas ocean sanctuaries.

    Environment Minister Murray Watt today announced the treaty, the most significant global nature protection agreement in a decade, will be ratified by the Australian parliament. The bill has now passed the Senate and House of Representatives with support from the major parties, clearing the final hurdle towards ratification.

    David Ritter, CEO at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Ratifying the Global Ocean Treaty is genuinely historic. At a time of unprecedented pressure from destructive industrial fishing, severe climate impacts, plastic pollution and mining, Australia has chosen to join the global effort to protect our magnificent oceans.”

    Australia was one of the first countries to sign its intent to ratify the treaty in 2023, and we have a long and distinguished history of leadership on global ocean protection. Under the new treaty Australia has the necessary legal tools to drive the creation of high seas ocean sanctuaries.

    “The Global Ocean Treaty is the most significant global nature agreement for many years, and has the power to protect the world’s high seas and safeguard precious and endangered wildlife,” Ritter added.

    “With the Treaty now in force, Australia has an important opportunity to drive the creation of ocean sanctuaries on the high seas that are fully protected, no-take zones, which will allow wildlife populations to recover and thrive.

    “We thrill at the whales and albatross, and all of the animals of the deep wild oceans, great and small–and now the world has the legal ability to protect them by creating high seas sanctuaries; massive parks at sea where nature can thrive.

    “We are an island nation of ocean lovers, and all Australians are entitled to expect that our government will take this incredible new opportunity to protect the ocean.”

    Greenpeace is calling on the Australian government to build on our national legacy by ensuring that this landmark agreement delivers lasting protection for our precious oceans.

    “We’re calling on Minister Watt to create five high seas sanctuaries in our region, starting with a large ocean sanctuary in the Tasman Sea, between Australia and Aotearoa-New Zealand.”

    Currently, less than 1 per cent of the global ocean is highly or fully protected. Closing the High Seas protection gap from under 1 per cent to 30 per cent in four years, to meet the globally-agreed 30×30 target, will require governments to protect ocean areas larger than entire continents and to do so faster than any conservation effort in history. Australia will now have a seat at the table for the very first Oceans COP, due before February 2027, where nations will discuss the design and implementation of the treaty.

    —ENDS—

    For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact Vai Shah on +61 452 290 082 or vai.shah@greenpeace.org

    High res images and footage of Australia’s oceans can be found here

    Ocean Treaty passes Australian Parliament, a “historic moment” for nature protection

    Continue Reading

    Climate Change

    Looking to Jesus and Buddha, a Kentucky Passionist Priest Finds Hope Amid an Enveloping Global Environmental Crisis

    Published

    on

    Father Joe Mitchell works to create a “new story” that recognizes the interconnectedness of people and nature.

    LOUISVILLE, Ky.—Father Joe Mitchell, a Passionist priest, returned home here in 2004 to create a nonprofit center that focuses on what he saw as two major disconnects.

    Looking to Jesus and Buddha, a Kentucky Passionist Priest Finds Hope Amid an Enveloping Global Environmental Crisis

    Continue Reading

    Trending

    Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com