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Google's Bold Climate Actions: AI in the Amazon and Solar Power in Space!

Google has announced a new deal with Mombak, a Brazilian reforestation company, to buy 200,000 metric tons of carbon removal. The goal is to expand forest restoration projects in Brazil and remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Mombak will team up with Google DeepMind’s Perch group. They will use AI and bioacoustic tools to see how forest restoration boosts biodiversity. In simple terms, the project will not only track how much carbon the trees store but also how wildlife returns and ecosystems recover.

The new agreement is part of Google’s wider climate strategy. Along with nature-based removals, the company recently unveiled plans for solar-powered data centers in space. These centers will provide clean energy for computing. These initiatives show how Google blends natural and tech solutions. They aim to cut emissions and create a more sustainable future.

Why Nature-Based Carbon Removal Matters

Forests are among the most effective natural systems for storing carbon. When trees grow, they capture CO₂ and store it in trunks, roots, and soil. Over time, healthy forests help slow global warming. But restoring damaged land takes money, time, and clear monitoring to prove results.

Nature-based solutions may take up to 85% of the total carbon credits supply annually by 2030, per McKinsey analysis below. Carbon credits are certificates representing the number of tonnes of carbon avoided or removed from the atmosphere.

In contrast, technology-based solutions could account for about 34% for the same period.

nature based solutions
Source: McKinsey

Nature-based projects can also deliver extra benefits, often called co-benefits. These include:

  • Protecting wildlife habitats.
  • Preventing soil erosion and flooding.
  • Creating local jobs.
  • Supporting Indigenous and rural communities.

However, measuring these outcomes is complex. Forests vary by region, and climate, soil, and species all affect how much carbon is stored. That’s why the use of advanced technology and transparent data reporting has become a key part of modern carbon removal projects.

Mombak Mission: Rebuilding the Amazon, One Native Tree at a Time

Mombak is a Brazil-based startup focused on restoring degraded land in the Amazon using native tree species. The company aims to rebuild natural forests rather than create single-species plantations. Its projects also aim to generate carbon credits that meet strict quality standards.

Mombak’s founders are seasoned entrepreneurs and scientists. They have expertise in forestry and sustainable finance. Since its launch, the company has gained support from climate investors and global brands focused on verified carbon removal.

Earlier this year, Mombak raised around $30 million to expand its planting programs and improve monitoring systems. The company’s current projects cover thousands of hectares in the Amazon region. Over the next few years, it plans to scale up to tens of millions of trees planted.

The new Google deal builds on a previous, smaller partnership. This latest purchase of 200,000 metric tons of carbon removal makes Mombak one of Google’s largest nature-based carbon suppliers.

Reilly O’Hara, Carbon Removal Program Manager at Google, stated:

“Mombak’s proven approach balances high integrity reforestation – such as the use of native, biodiverse forests and strong durability safeguards – with industrial scale and operations. We’ll need both to ensure a large and lasting impact, and Mombak is well-positioned to do so across Brazil. And excitingly, today Mombak was also selected as the first nature restoration project by the Symbiosis Coalition, further validating their approach to measuring impact with a high standard of scientific rigor.”

The Role of AI and Bioacoustics in Measuring Forest Health

An important part of this partnership is the use of AI through DeepMind’s Perch project. Perch uses machine learning to analyze natural sounds, such as bird calls and insect noises, recorded in restored forests. These recordings help scientists understand which species are returning and how ecosystems are recovering.

Bioacoustics works by placing microphones in the forest to capture the “soundscape” of nature. Each species has a unique sound, so by analyzing these patterns, AI can estimate biodiversity levels. This allows for tracking recovery more accurately and continuously. Plus, it won’t disturb wildlife.

Traditional field surveys can take months and cover limited areas. AI-powered monitoring offers faster and larger-scale data collection. It also lets people verify biodiversity outcomes independently. This has often been absent from many carbon credit projects.

One of the main criticisms of past carbon offset programs is a lack of clear reporting. Some projects overstated their impact, while others failed to monitor long-term results.

By using these tools, Mombak and Google aim to set a new standard for transparency in forest monitoring. This approach could make nature-based carbon credit projects more credible and easier to verify for buyers and regulators alike.

If a project’s credits lose value, like from forest fires or other risks, Google will replace them. This way, they can keep real climate benefits.

This “replacement plan” shows a move toward permanence and accountability. It means that companies buying carbon credits must ensure their impact lasts for decades, not just a few years.

Transparency also helps local communities and independent experts see progress. It builds trust that promises are being kept.

How the Symbiosis Coalition Sets New Carbon Standards

This project has also received the first official endorsement from the Symbiosis Coalition. The coalition is a group of major corporate buyers that commit to purchasing high-quality carbon removal credits. It supports projects that have strong environmental integrity. They also provide clear social and biodiversity benefits.

The endorsement shows that Mombak’s methods meet higher standards. These include climate impact, community engagement, and scientific monitoring. The coalition aims to boost investment in verified, nature-based solutions. They plan to do this by ensuring steady demand for these credits.

Companies like Google work with Symbiosis to make sure their credits meet industry standards and support global climate goals.

What It Means for Brazil and the Carbon Market

Brazil is emerging as a global hub for reforestation and carbon removal projects. With the Amazon rainforest as one of the world’s largest carbon sinks, the country plays a central role in climate mitigation.

The new Mombak project supports both local restoration and global climate efforts. It also matches Brazil’s goal to cut deforestation. This supports climate talks before COP30, which is taking place in Belém in 2025.

This deal shows how big buyers in the carbon market are shifting. They are moving from avoidance credits, which stop emissions, to removal credits that take carbon out of the atmosphere.

Reports say global investment in nature-based carbon removal projects hit almost $20 billion between 2021 and 2024. However, this is still less than the total finance needed by 2050, which is around $674 billion. Expanding reforestation projects like Mombak’s will help close that gap.

doubling investments in nature-based solutions
Source: McKinsey & Company

Beyond Earth: Google’s Solar-Powered Space Data Centers

Google launched Project Suncatcher this year. This initiative aims to create solar-powered data centers in space. It supports their climate and forest-restoration goals. The company plans to launch prototype satellites by early 2027. These satellites will have their custom TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) chips.

Solar panels in low-sunlight zones around Earth can be up to eight times more efficient than those on the ground. For instance, Google research shows that in a dawn-dusk sun-synchronous orbit, panels can produce almost constant power. This helps cut down on the need for big battery systems.

By the mid-2030s, management estimates say launch and operational costs for these satellites may fall below $200 per kilogram. This would make space-based data centers as affordable as those on Earth.

The move is significant for several reasons. Data centers on Earth use a lot of electricity and water for cooling. This becomes a climate and resource problem as AI use grows. By shifting computing to space, Google hopes to reduce strain on land-based grids and ecological systems.

The plan still has big engineering challenges, including:

  • heat management,
  • high-bandwidth optical links between satellites, and
  • making the hardware resilient to radiation.

Google’s Dual-Frontier Climate Vision

The partnership between Google, Mombak, and DeepMind reflects how large technology companies are linking AI, clean energy, and reforestation to address the climate crisis. Google’s efforts in climate innovation now cover many areas. They include restoring forests on Earth and capturing solar power in space.

If successful, these projects could become models for combining technology and nature to achieve measurable, lasting results. Google aims to tackle carbon removal and energy sustainability in many ways. The company combines large-scale reforestation with advanced monitoring and next-gen clean power systems. This approach shows its commitment to the environment.

The post Google’s Bold Climate Actions: AI in the Amazon and Solar Power in Space! appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Indigo Carbon Surpasses 2 Million Soil Carbon Credits in Landmark 1.1 Million Issuance

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Indigo Carbon Surpasses 2 Million Soil Carbon Credits in Landmark 1.1 Million Issuance

Indigo Carbon announced it has now passed 2 million metric tons of verified climate impact from U.S. croplands. The company reached the milestone after issuing its fifth U.S. “carbon crop.” The new issuance includes 1.1 million independently verified carbon credits issued through the Climate Action Reserve (CAR).

Indigo describes the milestone in its announcement as a sign that soil-based carbon programs can scale. It also points to rising corporate demand for credits that meet stricter quality rules.

Indigo’s latest issuance is important because it is linked to a major registry method that now carries an additional integrity label. Max DuBuisson, Head of Impact & Integrity, Indigo, remarked:

“Indigo continues to set the standard for high-integrity soil carbon removals that corporate buyers can trust. Soil carbon is uniquely positioned to scale as a climate solution because it captures and stores carbon while also improving water conservation and crop resilience. By combining world-class science and technology with farmer-driven practice change, we’re proving that agricultural soil carbon is an immediate, durable, high-integrity solution capable of helping global companies meet their climate commitments.”

Inside the 1.1M Credit Issuance and CCP Label

Indigo says its fifth issuance includes 1.1 million carbon credits verified and issued through CAR. These credits come from Indigo’s U.S. soil carbon project, listed on the Climate Action Reserve under the Soil Enrichment Protocol (SEP) Version 1.1.

CAR’s SEP is designed to quantify and verify farm practices that increase soil carbon and reduce net emissions. It covers changes in soil carbon storage and also includes reductions in certain greenhouse gases tied to farm management.

CAR’s SEP Version 1.1 has the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCP) label. This means the method meets the standards set by the CCP framework.

ICVCM core carbon principles
Source: ICVCM

Indigo’s disclosures also describe long-term monitoring rules. The company reports that its U.S. project includes 100 years of project-level monitoring after credit issuance, in line with CAR requirements. This mix of independent verification, registry issuance, and long monitoring periods is central to the case Indigo makes for credit quality.

Breaking Down the 2 Million Ton Milestone

Indigo says its total verified impact now exceeds 2 million metric tons of carbon removals and reductions across U.S. croplands.

In carbon markets, one credit equals one metric ton of CO₂ equivalent. Indigo’s latest issuance is very large by soil carbon standards. It also builds on earlier “carbon crop” issuances.

Indigo’s project disclosures include a quantified impact figure for its U.S. project. The company reports 927,367 tCO₂e reduced or removed through Dec. 31, 2023, for the project listed as CAR1459.

Indigo Carbon impact by the numbers
Source: Indigo

Indigo announced it has saved 118 billion gallons of water. It has also paid farmers $40 million through its programs so far. These points matter because many buyers now look beyond carbon totals. They also want evidence of farmer payments, monitoring rules, and co-benefits like water conservation.

Corporate Demand Shifts Toward Verified Removals

One reason soil carbon is getting more attention is the growing demand from buyers for removals. Many companies now focus more on carbon removal credits, not only avoidance credits.

Indigo’s largest recent buyer example is Microsoft. In January 2026, the carbon ag company announced a 12-year agreement under which Microsoft will purchase 2.85 million soil carbon removal credits from them.

  • The soil carbon producer said this is Microsoft’s third transaction with the company, following purchases of 40,000 tonnes in 2024 and 60,000 tonnes in 2025.

The tech giant’s purchases show how corporate buyers may use long-term offtake deals to secure future supply of credits. This matters for soil carbon programs because credits are typically generated over multiple years. And they also depend on practice changes and verification cycles.

Indigo also says its program works across eight million acres, which signals how it is trying to scale participation across U.S. farms.

Soil Carbon Credits: Market Trends and Forecast

Soil carbon credits are gaining attention as buyers shift toward higher-quality credits and clearer verification rules. Ecosystem Marketplace reports that the voluntary carbon market is entering a new phase. This phase emphasizes integrity, even though trading activity has slowed down.

In its 2025 market update, Ecosystem Marketplace noted a 25% drop in transaction volumes. This decline shows lower liquidity as buyers are becoming more selective.

Voluntary carbon credit market; price, volume, value 2022-2024

At the same time, demand for higher-quality credits is rising. Sylvera’s State of Carbon Credits 2025 reported that retirements dropped to 168 million credits in 2025, a 4.5% decrease.

Still, the market value climbed to US$1.04 billion due to rising prices. It also found that higher-rated credits (BBB+) made up 31% of retirements, and traded at higher average prices than lower-rated supply.

For soil carbon, buyers are also watching methodology quality. The ICVCM has approved two sustainable agriculture methods as CCP-approved. These are the Climate Action Reserve’s Soil Enrichment Protocol v1.1 and Verra’s VM0042. This can support stronger buyer confidence and may increase demand for soil credits that meet CCP rules.

Looking ahead, Sylvera projects compliance-linked demand will keep growing and could exceed voluntary demand by 2027. That trend may favor credits with stronger verification and compliance alignment, including higher-integrity soil carbon credits. However, integrity issues still occur, and this is where Indigo comes in.

Tackling Permanence and MRV Head-On

Soil carbon credits face a key challenge: carbon stored in soil can be reversed. A drought, land use change, or a shift in farm practices can reduce stored carbon.

This is why monitoring and reversal rules matter. CAR’s protocol is built to quantify, monitor, report, and verify practices that increase soil carbon storage.

Indigo’s project disclosure notes that projects are monitored for 100 years after they are issued. This shows the durability rules tied to their method and registry approach.

The company also positions its program as “outcome-based,” meaning it pays for verified carbon outcomes rather than paying only for adopting a practice. This messaging is designed to reassure buyers that credits are not only modeled. It stresses verification and the registry process.

A Scale Test for High-Integrity Soil Carbon

Indigo’s fifth issuance lands at a time when voluntary carbon markets are placing more weight on integrity labels and independent verification.

Two parts stand out:

  • First, volume. An issuance of 1.1 million credits through a registry is large for an agricultural soil carbon program.
  • Second, method approval. CAR’s SEP Version 1.1 carries the ICVCM CCP label, which is meant to signal alignment with a global integrity benchmark.

That combination may make it easier for corporate buyers to justify purchases internally. Many companies now face stronger scrutiny from auditors, regulators, investors, and civil society groups.

At the same time, more supply does not automatically mean market confidence rises. Buyers still assess risks such as permanence, additionality, and measurement uncertainty.

Even so, the milestone shows how fast some parts of the removals market are trying to scale. Large buyers are also helping drive this shift through multi-year offtake deals, like the Microsoft agreement for 2.85 million credits.

For Indigo, the new issuance supports its claim that soil carbon is moving from small pilot volumes toward larger, repeatable issuances. For the market, it adds another real-world data point: a major soil carbon program has now completed five issuance cycles and passed 2 million metric tons of verified climate impact.

The post Indigo Carbon Surpasses 2 Million Soil Carbon Credits in Landmark 1.1 Million Issuance appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft Dominate Clean Energy Deals as Global Buying Slips in 2025

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For nearly a decade, global companies have been racing to buy clean energy from wind farms, solar parks, and other green power projects. But 2025 marked the first decline in this trend in almost ten years — a surprising shift that signals a changing landscape for corporate sustainability.

The latest report from BloombergNEF (BNEF) shows that corporate clean energy purchasing dropped about 10% in 2025, falling from roughly 62.2 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 55.9 GW last year.

Let’s break down why this happened, what it means, and how the market could evolve in the coming years.

Clean Energy Buying: The Big Picture

Corporate clean energy buying usually happens through power purchase agreements (PPAs). They are long-term contracts where companies agree to buy electricity directly from renewable energy projects, often wind or solar farms.

For years, this was one of the fastest-growing parts of the clean energy market. Companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft drove most of the demand, helping build huge amounts of renewable capacity. But 2025 interrupted that streak.

Even though 55.9 GW is still one of the largest annual totals ever, the fact that it is lower than the year before shows a real shift in how companies approach renewable energy deals.

Why Corporate Clean Energy Buying Fell

There are several reasons why corporate clean energy buying slowed in 2025:

Corporate buyers are sensitive to electricity market rules and government policies. In many regions, uncertain policy environments made it harder to finalize long-term clean energy contracts. In the United States, for example, uncertainty about future clean energy incentives and carbon accounting standards caused many smaller corporations to hold off on signing new deals.

In some power markets, especially in parts of Europe, there were long hours of negative electricity prices. This happens when supply exceeds demand and power becomes so cheap that producers pay buyers to take it.

These price swings make standalone solar and wind contracts less attractive, especially for companies that want predictable, long-term value from their clean energy purchases.

corporate clean energy

Dominance of Big Tech

Another key point in the BloombergNEF findings is that the market is becoming more concentrated. As said before, four major tech firms, like Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, signed nearly half of all clean energy deals in 2025.

Meta and Amazon alone contracted over 20 GW of clean power last year, including deals that cover not just solar or wind, but also nuclear power — something unusual in past corporate PPA markets.

While this heavy concentration helps maintain volume, it also means that smaller companies are scaling back, which lowers the total number of buyers and contributes to the overall slowdown.

meta amazon google microsoft

Regional Differences: Where Things Slowed and Where They Didn’t

Corporate clean energy markets didn’t all move in the same direction last year. Bloomberg’s data shows clear regional patterns:

United States

The U.S. remained the largest single market for corporate clean energy deals, signing a record 29.5 GW of commitments. Much of this came from major technology companies looking to match their growing electricity needs with zero-carbon power sources.

Yet despite these high numbers, the number of unique corporate buyers in the U.S. dropped by about 51%, as many smaller firms pulled back from signing new PPAs.

Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA)

In the EMEA region, corporate PPAs fell around 13% in 2025, slipping back to levels closer to 2023. In Europe, in particular, rising negative prices and unstable policy conditions discouraged many new deals.

Asia Pacific

Asia had a mixed story. Some markets like Japan and Malaysia continued to attract corporate clean energy buyers, thanks to mature PPA markets and supportive regulations. But slower activity in countries like India and South Korea contributed to a drop in total volumes in the region.

clean energy

The Rise of Hybrid and Firm Power Deals

One interesting trend that emerged in 2025 is that companies are looking beyond just wind and solar. Because of the limitations with standalone renewable deals, many buyers are now exploring hybrid power contracts that mix renewables with storage, or even nuclear and geothermal sources.

Hybrid deals like solar paired with battery storage give companies more reliable power and help manage price and supply risks. BloombergNEF tracked nearly 6 GW of these hybrid agreements in 2025, and expects this share to grow.

  • According to a report by SEIA and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the United States added a record 28 gigawatts (GW) / 57 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in 2025. It reflected a 29% year-over-year increase.

Cheaper battery costs are part of this trend. Recent data shows that the cost of four-hour battery storage projects fell about 27% in 2025, reaching record lows. This makes storage-based renewable contracts more financially compelling.

bess US

Big Companies Still Push the Market

Even with the overall slowdown, corporate clean energy buying remains strong, especially among large technology firms.

In fact, while smaller companies took a step back, the major tech buyers helped keep total volumes near all-time highs. In other words, the market didn’t crash; it just shifted shape.

This becomes even clearer when we look at individual company progress. Microsoft reported recently that it now matches 100% of its global electricity use with renewable energy, an achievement that required decades of energy contracts and partnerships.

The Clean Energy Market Is Resetting, Not Retreating

The IEA projects that renewables will provide 36% of global electricity in 2026. This shows that the energy transition is moving forward, even if corporate clean energy purchases dipped in 2025. The slowdown does not signal failure. Instead, it reflects a market that is adapting as companies, technologies, policies, and economics evolve together.

renewables

Growth in corporate renewable deals is not always steady. A single year of lower volumes does not erase the gains of the past decade. Instead, it highlights the natural adjustments markets go through as strategies shift and conditions change.

In this transitioning phase, policy and regulation remain critical. Clear rules, incentives, and supportive frameworks encourage smaller companies to participate. Additionally, regions that provide stability, such as parts of the Asia Pacific, are seeing continued growth in corporate clean energy demand.

In conclusion, even with the dip in 2025, corporate renewable energy purchasing is far larger than it was ten years ago. The market is shifting rather than shrinking, and companies continue to find ways to power growth with clean energy. This slowdown may serve as a wake-up call, encouraging smarter, more flexible strategies that can sustain the energy transition for years to come.

The post Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft Dominate Clean Energy Deals as Global Buying Slips in 2025 appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Navigating Nature Based Solutions – The 2026 Forecast

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“…Human subtlety… will never devise an invention more beautiful, more simple or more direct than does nature, because in her inventions nothing is lacking, and nothing is superfluous…”

The voluntary carbon market (VCM) has passed its inflection point. The volatility that characterized 2023 and 2024 has settled into a stark, data-driven reality: the market has bifurcated. As we look toward 2026, corporate leaders face two distinct markets. One is a liquid, low-price market of legacy credits facing increasing obsolescence. The other is a constrained, high-value market of high-quality assets. Specifically within Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), where demand is beginning to structurally outstrip supply.

For the capital-intensive, risk-averse organization, the strategy for 2026 cannot rely on the spot market procurement tactics of the past decade. The data from 2025 indicates that securing access to high-quality NBS is no longer just a corporate social responsibility objective; it is a balance sheet imperative driven by regulatory convergence and the tangible risk of stranded assets.

 

The End of Uniformity: The Quality Premium Widens

The most critical signal for your 2026 strategy is the decoupling of credit prices based on integrity.

In 2025, while total credit retirements marginally declined by 4.5% to 168 million tonnes, the primary market value actually grew by over 6% to $1.04 billion. This counter-intuitive dynamic—lower volume, higher value—proves that buyers are actively discarding low-quality inventory in favor of fewer, higher-quality assets.

This “flight to quality” has created a substantial price premium. In previous years, the spread between high and low-rated credits was negligible. By mid-2025, MSCI reported that credits rated ‘BBB’ and above were trading at a premium of approximately 360% over lower-rated credits. Specifically within NBS, Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation (ARR) projects rated ‘BBB+’ averaged $26.10 per tonne, while their lower-rated counterparts (‘BB-‘ and below) languished at $14.50.

For the CFO, this presents a clear heuristic: the “cheap” option carries a hidden cost. Low-quality credits now face a high probability of becoming stranded assets. Credits that are technically issued but unusable for credible net-zero claims or compliance obligations due to reputational toxicity or regulatory exclusion.

 

The Supply Crunch in High-Quality NBS

As your organization forecasts its procurement needs for 2026, you must account for a deepening supply deficit in the specific assets you likely desire. While the overall market holds a surplus of legacy credits, the inventory of high-quality credits is shrinking.

For the third consecutive year, highly-rated credits (BBB+) experienced a market deficit in 2025, meaning retirements (consumption) exceeded new issuances. This scarcity is acute in Nature-Based Solutions. While forestry and land use, accounting for 68 million tonnes in 2024, remain the most frequently retired project category, the composition of that supply is changing.

Buyers are aggressively shifting away from legacy REDD+ (avoided deforestation) projects toward removal-based NBS, such as ARR and Improved Forest Management (IFM). In 2025, transaction volumes for IFM projects grew over 300%, while legacy REDD+ volumes fell by 52%.

The implication for your 2026 planning is scarcity. The lead time for new high-quality NBS projects to come online is significant. Consequently, we are witnessing a surge in early-stage offtake agreements. In 2025, the value of announced offtake deals totaled $12.25 billion… a massive leap from $3.95 billion in 2024. Sophisticated buyers, including major energy and technology firms, are locking in future supply at weighted average prices of $160 per credit for durable removals, effectively bypassing the spot market entirely.

 

Regulatory Convergence: The Compliance Floor

The distinction between “voluntary” and “compliance” markets is eroding, and this convergence will be a primary price driver in 2026. Regulatory bodies are increasingly creating a floor for credit quality that impacts voluntary buyers.

Two mechanisms are driving this shift:

1. CORSIA Phase 1

The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) has entered its first mandatory compliance phase (2024–2026). The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has tightened eligibility, creating a “compliance-grade” stamp of approval. Sylvera modeling suggests that compliance demand could exceed voluntary demand as early as 2027, largely driven by the approaching CORSIA Phase 1 deadline. This will create direct competition for high-integrity credits between voluntary corporate buyers and regulated aviation entities, inevitably driving up price floors for eligible NBS credits.

2. Article 6 and Corresponding Adjustments

The operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is accelerating. As of late 2025, 176 bilateral agreements were in place under Article 6.2. This mechanism allows countries to transfer carbon credits (Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes, or ITMOs) to one another.

For corporate buyers, the critical development for 2026 is the “Corresponding Adjustment” (CA). A CA ensures that when a credit is sold abroad, the host country deducts it from its own national inventory, preventing double-counting. We project that credits with a CA will command a distinct premium and may become a requirement for companies making specific claims under the Paris Agreement framework. With countries like Singapore and Japan already executing trades, the infrastructure for this high-compliance market is solidifying.

3. The Role of Independent Assurance

In an environment of rising prices and regulatory complexity, “trust” is a risk management tool. Reliance on project developer marketing materials is insufficient for audit committees and risk officers.

The rise of independent rating agencies such as MSCI, Sylvera, Calyx Global, and BeZero, has fundamentally altered the due diligence landscape. These agencies now cover the majority of the market; Calyx Global’s ratings alone cover 70% of all retirements from 2021 to 2024.

Data indicates that utilizing these ratings is becoming a prerequisite for transaction security. Buyers are increasingly writing clauses into offtake agreements that allow them to exit the contract if a project’s third-party rating drops below a certain threshold (e.g., ‘BBB’). For 2026, we advise integrating independent ratings data directly into your procurement workflows to mitigate delivery and reputational risk.

 

Strategic Outlook for 2026

Based on the current trajectory, the role of Nature-Based Solutions in 2026 will be defined by three core realities:

  1. NBS as a Removal Mechanism: The market will continue to prize “removals” (sequestering carbon) over “avoidance” (preventing emissions). In 2024, removal credits commanded a 381% price premium over reduction credits, up from 245% the previous year. Corporations with net-zero targets must prioritize ARR and IFM projects to align with the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) guidance on residual emissions.
  2. Co-Benefits as Value Drivers: Buyers are no longer paying solely for the carbon molecule. They are paying for the verified impact on biodiversity and local communities. Projects with quantifiable co-benefits are achieving measurable price uplifts. In 2026, expect biodiversity monitoring to become a standard component of high-quality NBS due diligence.
  3. The Necessity of Long-Term Positions: The spot market for high-integrity NBS is thinning. If your organization waits to purchase 2026 vintage credits in 2026, you will likely face a restricted supply of “leftover” inventory at inflated prices. The $12 billion surge in offtakes signals that your peers are moving upstream to finance project development directly.
 

Recommendations for the C-Suite

To navigate the 2026 carbon market landscape effectively, we recommend the following actions:

  • Audit Your Inventory: Assess your current holdings against independent ratings. Identify assets at risk of becoming “stranded” due to low integrity scores or lack of alignment with Core Carbon Principles (CCPs).
  • Pivot to Offtakes: Move from spot purchasing to multi-year offtake agreements for high-quality ARR and IFM projects. This hedges against future price spikes and secures supply.
  • Integrate Compliance Standards: Even if your purchasing is voluntary, align your quality thresholds with CORSIA Phase 1 or Article 6 requirements to future-proof your investments against regulatory creep.
  • Demand Data: Require independent ratings and granular monitoring data (MRV) for all prospective NBS investments. Do not rely on issuer claims alone.

The era of cheap, opaque carbon credits is effectively over. The market of 2026 offers clarity and impact, but only for those willing to invest in integrity.

 

About Carbon Credit Capital

For over 20 years, Carbon Credit Capital has guided global organizations through the complexities of sustainability strategy and carbon finance. To discuss how these 2026 forecasts impact your specific net-zero roadmap, or to analyze the integrity of your current portfolio, connect with our sustainability experts.

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