The year 2023 marks a pivotal moment in the volatile journey of the carbon credit market. Once hailed as a cornerstone of corporate climate action, voluntary carbon markets are now grappling with a crisis of confidence and a significant downturn in price and demand.
A Rapid Rise and Troubling Slowdown
Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs), a key tool in the global fight against climate change, experienced exponential growth from 2019 to 2021.

As seen above, VCM credits jumped by 86% in 2021 compared to 2019 level. This surge was fueled by escalating corporate net-zero commitments and optimistic forecasts about the market’s potential size.
For instance, Citibank committed to reach net zero emissions by 2050, while using carbon credits to tackle unavoidable emissions. One of the world’s largest biopharmaceutical companies, Pfizer, also pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2040. The US’ biggest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), also aimed at hitting net zero by 2040 while reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 50% from 2015 levels by 2030.
However, 2022 witnessed a stark slowdown in the VCM’s growth, a trend that continued into 2023. Various factors, including the increasing complexity of market mechanisms and the role of carbon credits in broader sustainability strategies, have contributed to this decline.
The Offset Decline: An Erosion of Confidence
Several high-profile corporations, such as Shell, Nestlé, EasyJet, and Fortescue Metals Group, have recently retreated from carbon offset schemes. This withdrawal stems partly from growing skepticism about the effectiveness of these projects, with concerns about their actual climate benefits and accusations of greenwashing.
- Shell: The MIT Technology Review reported that corporations, including Shell, announced they were backing away from offsets or the claims of carbon neutrality that relied upon them. This shift reflects a broader trend of companies moving away from credits that simply claim to prevent emissions, particularly in light of increasing awareness about the challenges in proving the actual environmental impact of these projects.
- Nestlé: Reuters detailed Nestlé’s decision to move away from investing in carbon offsets for its brands, such as KitKat, to focus more on programs and practices that help reduce greenhouse gas emissions within their own supply chain and operations. This change is part of their strategy to reach their net-zero ambitions, indicating a shift from offsetting to direct emission reductions.
- EasyJet: According to the MIT Technology Review, EasyJet was mentioned as another corporation that had decided to wind down its offsetting program. Instead, EasyJet is now focusing on cutting emissions from its operations, signaling a shift in strategy towards more direct measures of reducing environmental impact.
A significant decrease in demand for offsets was observed, with estimates suggesting a 25% decline from 2021 levels by the end of 2023.
Carbon Price Collapse
The downturn in demand has had a dramatic effect on prices. The Xpansiv market CBL, the world’s largest spot carbon exchange, saw prices of carbon offsets fall by over 80% in an 18-20 month period.

- Note: You can view the daily price changes and charts of carbon prices right here.
This price decline reflects the broader challenges facing the voluntary carbon market, including questions about the actual environmental impact of the credits and the integrity of projects claiming to offset emissions.
While the VCM prices have been hit, the decline in NGEO (Nature-Based Global Emissions Offsets) prices stands out due to the premium they were trading at over the other offsets last year. With increasing scrutiny on forestry projects, NGEO prices sharply dropped from around $15 in June 2022 to $1 in June this year.
It even declined to below $1 at the time of writing.

One major reason for the downward trend of NGEOs was the tough macroeconomic environment, causing stagnation in demand in 2022. Moreover, the poor outcome for the VCM at COP27, which carries over at the recent COP28, further casted doubts on how carbon offsets fit in corporate net zero plans.
Mark Kenber, VCMI’s Executive Director, commented that though there are many encouraging developments on carbon markets at COP28, agreements “fell short of the mark”. He further stated that:
“For the market to fully develop in the next two years, policymakers can draw on the foundational work of the VCMI and IC-VCM, developing high-integrity VCM and Article 6 markets that deliver the finance that makes ambitious global action possible.”
Over in compliance markets, the EU carbon prices have broken records in February this year, surging past 100 euros. But the EU allowance prices also dipped back to its low levels this month at 78 euros, close to its November 2022 average price.
The region, which has the largest carbon market EU ETS, plans to phase out its free carbon allowances while gradually phasing in its newly introduced carbon tax, known as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. CBAM will ensure that companies operating inside and outside the bloc remain on the same page in terms of carbon pricing and environmental impact.
Following the EU footsteps, the UK is also set to launch its own CBAM version. It aims to ensure that imported goods from carbon-intensive industries like iron, steel, and cement face fair carbon prices.
A couple of African nations are also gearing up to participate in the carbon arena. New carbon credit exchanges are created in Zimbabwe and Tanzania while Zambia and Kenya have plans to do the same.
Several countries in Asia are also joining the carbon market bandwagon. Indonesia had launched a carbon credit trading market through IDX as part of its 2060 net zero goal. Japan’s first exchange-based carbon market opened in October this year.
Amid all these, the future of carbon markets now stands at a critical juncture. They face the challenge of regaining credibility and functionality amidst growing scrutiny and regulatory changes. How these markets evolve in response to these challenges will significantly impact their role in global climate strategies.
The Inflection Point: What’s Next for Carbon Prices and Trading?
Not all carbon news is grim here in 2023.
On Dec 13th, 2023, Xpansiv’s CBL spot exchange hit a daily trading volume record of 2.13 million tons of carbon credits, signalling robust corporate engagement in carbon offset markets. This surge aligns with the final day of COP28, reflecting an uptick in year-end corporate purchases for sustainability goals.
New transparency requirements in the U.S., Europe, Australia, and California are driving this demand, pushing companies to disclose more about their carbon offset activities.
Allister Furey, CEO and co-founder of Sylvera, noted the fact that regulators are now seeing the critical role of carbon credits in financing the net zero transition. He further said that:
“Disclosures at every step of the carbon journey and for all involved stakeholders will become increasingly important. From the SEC’s coming climate disclosure rules to California’s AB1305, there are significant incoming regulations which should dramatically improve data availability in net zero–and we will begin to see the price of carbon ripple throughout value chains, slowly but surely.”
Since 2020, CBL has traded over 300 million tons, dominating over 95% of the global spot exchange-traded carbon offsets. The record day underscores a heightened market activity during the UN’s COP event.
Meanwhile, the Compliance Credits market has not only attracted immense investment dollars – especially in carbon capture projects – but countries like Canada and the UK are setting higher and higher compliance prices.
NASDAQ Enters the Carbon Credit Market Arena
The NASDAQ Exchange, recognizing the growing importance and potential of the carbon credits market, has recently launched an innovative technology to revolutionize the industry. This new system, aimed at digitizing the issuance, settlement, and custody of carbon credits, is set to enhance the scalability of this nascent market.
Nasdaq’s approach uses smart contracts for secure transactions and promises to bring much-needed standardization and liquidity to attract diverse investors.
Moreover, Nasdaq’s collaboration with Climate Impact X (CIX) marks a significant stride towards developing the global carbon market. This partnership will power CIX’s spot exchange for quality carbon credits, intending to improve price transparency and liquidity in the voluntary carbon credit market.
Addressing the inefficiencies and inconsistencies in the market, this move by Nasdaq and CIX is poised to create a more resilient and scalable trading environment, demonstrating Nasdaq’s commitment to pioneering market transformations in the carbon credit sector.
It’s clear that change is in the air. Companies are not just looking to buy credits; they’re looking to buy credibility and real impact. And as the market matures, it’s becoming more about quality than quantity.
The post Carbon Prices and Voluntary Carbon Markets Faced Major Declines in 2023, What’s Next for 2024? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Verra to Launch Scope 3 Standard in 2026: A New Era for Value Chain Carbon Tracking
The post Verra to Launch Scope 3 Standard in 2026: A New Era for Value Chain Carbon Tracking appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Oil Shock Ignites Chinese EV Export Surge Around the World
Rising global oil prices are driving up demand for electric vehicles (EVs), with Chinese brands emerging as key beneficiaries. Recent spikes in crude prices are driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route.
These factors have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel and created instability in fuel markets. This has pushed many consumers to rethink fuel costs and consider EV alternatives. Higher fuel prices increase running costs for gasoline and diesel cars, making EV ownership more economical in many markets.
Chinese EVs Gain Speed Abroad
Dealers in countries like Australia and parts of Southeast Asia see growing interest in Chinese EVs. This rise comes as fuel prices increase.
Showrooms selling Chinese new energy vehicles (NEVs) are seeing more test drives, customer inquiries, and rising order volumes. In Australia, the EV market share hit a record high of 11.8% for vehicle sales. Analysts say this jump is partly due to rising petrol prices.
Chinese manufacturers like BYD, GWM, and Chery are rapidly growing abroad. Some dealers see more walk-ins and more customers buying EVs.
China’s EV industry is now the largest in the world. In 2024, Chinese automakers produced over 12.87 million plug‑in electric vehicles (PEVs), including battery electric (BEV) and plug‑in hybrid models, accounting for nearly 47.5% of total automobile production. That figure marked a strong year‑on‑year rise and underscored China’s industrial scale and export readiness.

By late 2025, more than 51% of all new vehicles sold in China were electric — a major shift from just a few years earlier.
This domestic scale provides an export advantage. Chinese EVs often cost less than similar European and North American models. This helps them succeed in markets where fuel costs hit household budgets hard.
Fuel Costs Drive Behavior Shift
Rising oil prices are a major driver of these sales trends. Global crude prices have fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions. The Strait of Hormuz route carries around 20% of the world’s oil trade. These disruptions pushed crude prices sharply higher in early 2026.
In many countries, higher retail fuel prices translate into more immediate cost pressures for consumers. Reports from countries like Australia show petrol prices over $2.50 per litre. This rise is making consumers think about EVs to lower long-term costs.
Global EV Market Trends and Forecasts
The surge in Chinese EV exports aligns with broader global trends. Major industry forecasts suggest that global sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles may top 22 million units by 2025. This could represent about 25% of all new car sales worldwide.
Global electric vehicle sales in 2025 reached nearly 21 million units, including both battery electric vehicles and plug‑in hybrid electric vehicles. This total represents a significant increase, roughly 20 % more than in 2024.
China’s share in this global growth is large. In 2024, Chinese manufacturers made up around 70% of all EV exports. This shows China’s key role in supply chains and manufacturing.
As oil demand growth slows due to EV uptake, some forecasts suggest that EVs could displace millions of barrels of global oil demand each day in the coming decade. By 2030, EV adoption could cut about 5 million barrels per day of oil use, according to major energy outlooks.
Trade Barriers vs Expansion
Despite strong export gains, barriers remain. Some regions have imposed tariffs and trade restrictions on Chinese EVs, and infrastructure gaps in charging networks can slow adoption. For example, tariffs exceeding 100% on certain Chinese EV imports in the U.S. have limited market share there.
However, Chinese OEMs are developing supplier and shipping capacity to support overseas demand. In 2025, China’s electric car makers expanded shipping through roll‑on/roll‑off carriers capable of transporting more than 30,000 vehicles, improving export logistics.
Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Oceania are also showing rising EV interest. In the Philippines and Vietnam, dealerships see EV orders growing quickly. Some are even doubling their weekly sales, thanks to high fuel costs.
In India, where oil imports make up a big part of the economy, rising petrol costs make running traditional fuel vehicles more expensive. This has helped boost interest in electric vehicles, which are cheaper to operate when fuel is costly. Notably, the share of ICE retailers fell by over 25% in March.

Indian consumers and businesses view EVs as a way to shield against unstable oil prices. This also helps lower fuel costs, supporting the country’s move to electric transport.
What This Means for Energy and Transport Futures
The convergence of high oil prices and strong EV supply from China is creating a feedback loop. Higher fuel costs push consumers to consider EVs more seriously. Chinese manufacturers are well positioned to fill that demand with competitive pricing and large production scale.
The shift could speed up the move from fossil fuel cars to electric vehicles worldwide. This is especially true in price-sensitive and emerging markets. EV adoption also has implications for oil demand trends.
- As battery and charging tech get better and EV markets grow, oil use — especially in transport — might slow down or peak sooner than we thought.
At the same time, governments and industry groups are tracking these shifts closely. Policies that support charging infrastructure, EV incentives, and emissions standards will influence how quickly the global fleet electrifies.
Ultimately, the current oil price shock may have sparked a shift in global automotive markets — one where Chinese EVs take an increasingly central role in transport electrification worldwide.
The post Oil Shock Ignites Chinese EV Export Surge Around the World appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Texas Solar Market Heats Up with Meta and Google Investments
The U.S. is witnessing a surge in utility-scale solar development, driven by growing corporate demand for clean energy. Major tech companies like Meta and Google are securing long-term deals in Texas, combining renewable energy growth with economic and grid benefits.
This trend highlights how corporate commitments are shaping the future of the clean energy transition. Let’s find out.
Zelestra and Meta’s $600 Million Solar Deal
Madrid-based renewable energy firm Zelestra secured a massive $600 million green financing facility, signaling strong investor confidence in utility-scale solar. The funding, backed by Société Générale and HSBC, will support two large solar projects in Texas—Echols Grove (252 MW) and Cedar Range (187 MW).
These projects are not standalone efforts. Instead, they are part of a broader clean energy partnership with Meta, one of the world’s largest corporate renewable energy buyers. Together, they form a portion of a seven-project portfolio totaling 1.2 GW under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs).
Sybil Milo Cioffi, Zelestra’s U.S. CFO, said:
“This financing marks a significant milestone in the delivery of our largest U.S. solar projects to date. It reflects strong confidence from Societe Generale and HSBC in our strategy and execution capabilities and reinforces our ability to attract first-class capital to support our growth platform in the U.S. market.”
Zelestra is strengthening its presence in the U.S. energy market with innovative solutions for hyperscalers and corporate clients. It is developing around 15 GW of renewable projects across key markets. In February 2026, BloombergNEF ranked Zelestra among the top 10 PPA sellers to U.S. corporations.
Solar Powering Meta’s Climate Strategy
Meta continues to aggressively expand its clean energy footprint. The company has made renewable energy procurement a core part of its climate roadmap—and the numbers clearly reflect that shift.
In 2024, Meta reported emissions of 8.2 million metric tonnes of CO₂e after accounting for clean energy contracts. In comparison, its location-based emissions stood at 15.6 million tonnes. This marked a sharp 48% reduction, largely driven by renewable energy purchases.
Moreover, the company has consistently maintained momentum:
- Since 2020, it has matched 100% of its electricity consumption with renewable energy.
- Over the past decade, it has secured more than 15 GW of clean energy globally.
- Overall, renewable energy procurement has helped cut 23.8 million MT CO₂e emissions since 2021.
As a result, Meta cut operational emissions by around 6 million tonnes in 2024 alone. At the same time, it tackled value chain emissions using Energy Attribute Certificates (EACs), reducing Scope 3 emissions by another 1.4 million tonnes.

Most of these deals were concentrated in the U.S., highlighting the country’s growing importance in corporate decarbonization strategies.
Importantly, this collaboration goes beyond just energy supply. It also aims to deliver broader economic benefits, including:
- Local job creation during construction
- Long-term tax revenue for the region
- Continued investment in local infrastructure
David Lillefloren, CEO at Sunraycer, said:
“These agreements with Google represent a significant milestone for Sunraycer and underscore the strength of our development platform. We are proud to support Google’s clean energy objectives while delivering high-quality renewable infrastructure in Texas.”
Additionally, the deal was facilitated through LevelTen Energy’s LEAP process, which simplifies and speeds up PPA execution. This highlights how innovative platforms are now playing a key role in scaling renewable deployment.
“Google’s data centers are long-term investments in the communities we call home,” said Will Conkling, Director of Energy and Power, Google. “This collaboration with Sunraycer will fuel local economic growth while helping to build a more robust and affordable energy future for Texas.”
Google, like Meta, has built a strong clean energy portfolio over time. Since 2010, it has signed over 170 agreements totaling more than 22 GW of capacity worldwide. Its long-term ambition is even more ambitious—achieving 100% carbon-free energy, every hour of every day, by 2030.
Why Texas Is Becoming the Center of Energy Transformation
All these developments point to one clear trend—Texas is rapidly becoming a global hub for clean energy and data center growth.
On one hand, the state offers strong solar resources, vast land availability, and a deregulated power market. On the other hand, it is witnessing a surge in electricity demand, especially from data centers and AI-driven workloads.
According to projections from the EIA, U.S. electricity demand could rise by 20% or more by 2030. Data centers are expected to play a major role in this growth. In fact, energy consumption from data centers increased by over 20% between 2020 and 2025.

As a result, energy infrastructure in Texas is facing growing pressure. Rising industrial activity, extreme weather events, and rapid digital expansion are all contributing to grid stress. Yet, at the same time, this demand is driving unprecedented investment in renewable energy.
The EIA expects Texas to lead solar expansion in the coming years, accounting for nearly 40% of new solar capacity in the U.S. California will follow closely, and together, the two states will drive almost half of total additions.

Even though the sector has faced temporary slowdowns, the long-term outlook for U.S. solar remains highly positive.
In 2025, the U.S. added 53 GW of new electricity capacity—the highest annual addition since 2002. Notably, wind and utility-scale solar together generated 17% of the country’s electricity, a massive jump from less than 1% two decades ago.

Looking ahead, growth is expected to accelerate again. Developers are planning to add around 86 GW of new capacity in 2026, which could set a new record. Solar alone is projected to account for more than half of this expansion.
Breaking it down further:
- Solar is expected to contribute 51% of new capacity
- Battery storage will make up 28%
- Wind will account for 14%
Utility-scale solar capacity additions could reach 43.4 GW in 2026, marking a 60% increase compared to 2025 levels.
Analysis: Corporate Demand Is Reshaping Energy Markets
Overall, the developments from Zelestra, Meta, Google, and Sunraycer highlight a broader transformation underway in global energy markets.
First, corporate buyers are no longer passive participants. Instead, they are actively shaping energy infrastructure through long-term PPAs. These agreements provide stable revenue for developers while ensuring a clean power supply for companies.

Second, financing is becoming more accessible. Large-scale funding deals, like Zelestra’s $600 million facility, show that banks are increasingly willing to back renewable projects with strong contractual support.
Third, regions like Texas are emerging as strategic energy hubs. The combination of rising electricity demand and favorable renewable conditions is attracting both developers and corporate buyers.
However, challenges remain. Grid reliability, permitting delays, and policy uncertainty could still impact the pace of deployment. Even so, the overall trajectory remains clear.
Clean energy demand is rising fast. Big Tech is leading the charge. And solar power is set to play a central role in meeting future electricity needs.
- READ MORE: Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft Dominate Clean Energy Deals as Global Buying Slips in 2025
The post Texas Solar Market Heats Up with Meta and Google Investments appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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