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Weathering the Storm, The Rise of $25B Weather Derivatives Market

As companies and investors grapple with climate risks, a niche segment of Wall Street is gaining attention for offering protection against weather-related disruptions. 

The surge in demand for weather derivatives is driven by rising climate volatility and regulatory pressures, with average trading volumes soaring more than 260% in 2023, according to the CME Group. This reflects a growing awareness of the potential impact of weather events on businesses’ bottom lines.

The Meteoric Surge in Weather Derivatives

Weather derivatives, which provide a hedge against less severe but more common meteorological threats, are experiencing significant growth compared to better-known weather bets like catastrophe bonds. 

Unlike catastrophe bonds, which typically cover extreme events like 100-year storms, weather derivatives offer protection against a range of weather conditions such as excessive rainfall or high temperatures, which can impact industries like tourism, agriculture, and energy.

With weather derivatives, the seller assumes the risk associated with adverse weather conditions in exchange for a premium. Should no adverse weather events occur before the contract’s expiration, the seller stands to make a profit. Conversely, if unexpected or unfavorable weather conditions arise, the buyer of the derivative can claim the agreed-upon amount.

The expansion of weather derivative offerings by exchanges like the CME Group underscores the increasing demand for these products. Traders and companies now have access to options covering a variety of locations, reflecting the global reach of weather-related risks. 

In 2023, the average trading volumes for listed products experienced a remarkable surge of over 260%, as reported by the CME Group. Additionally, the number of outstanding contracts is currently 48% higher compared to the previous year. 

weather derivatives trading volume 2023 CME group

Despite this significant increase in publicly traded activity, industry estimates suggest that this segment represents only a fraction of the overall market, potentially accounting for as little as 10% of all activity. The outstanding derivatives in this sector may hold a notional value of up to $25 billion.

This growth trajectory is fueled by corporations’ growing recognition of their exposure to weather-related risks, driven by operational impacts, regulatory requirements, and investor pressures.

Forecasting Financial Climate Change

Regulators in jurisdictions like Europe and the US are increasingly requiring companies to disclose climate-related risks and mitigation strategies. This regulatory push, coupled with investor expectations, is compelling businesses to assess and address their exposure to weather-related risks. 

As a result, industries ranging from energy to agriculture are turning to weather derivatives to manage their risk exposure.

The energy sector, in particular, is embracing weather derivatives to mitigate the impact of weather fluctuations on demand and supply. Companies use weather hedges to offset the effects of warm weather on heating oil sales, while renewable energy producers seek to manage the intermittency of solar and wind power generation through weather derivatives.

In particular, Star Group LP, a US-based provider of home heating and air conditioning products and a distributor of heating oil, employs hedging strategies to minimize the impact of warm weather on its cash flows. 

As per its financial statements, the company has entered into contracts that allow it to potentially receive up to $12.5 million if temperatures recorded during the coverage period from November through March surpass specific thresholds. 

Following payouts received in recent financial years, including the full benefit in 2023, the maximum payment under these contracts has increased to $15 million for those payable in 2025. 

  • Advancements in meteorological science and technology are driving the development of more sophisticated weather derivative products. 

Companies like Syngenta are leveraging derivatives to offer innovative solutions to farmers, such as cash refunds for crop failures due to adverse weather conditions. These programs, underpinned by derivatives, demonstrate the potential for weather derivatives to protect individual end-users from climate-related risks.

climate-related risks

For example, Syngenta’s AgriClime program offers a unique proposition to farmers, pledging a cash refund for up to 30% of their purchase of specific crops if nature fails to provide suitable growing conditions. This initiative aims to provide a safety net for farmers in the event of adverse weather conditions, ensuring that their livelihoods are not jeopardized. 

During the UK’s last planting season, such payouts were made to 99% of Syngenta’s hybrid barley customers, underscoring the program’s effectiveness in supporting farmers during challenging times. Syngenta said that its AgriClime program extends to cover a variety of crops across over 50,000 farms spanning 17 countries. 

Navigating the Climate Economy: Challenges and Opportunities in Weather Derivatives

However, the growth of the weather derivatives market raises questions about moral hazard and the effectiveness of financial solutions in addressing climate change. 

Critics argue that mitigating the financial impact of weather events may reduce incentives for corporations to address their contributions to climate change. Despite these concerns, industry practitioners emphasize the positive role of weather derivatives in funding renewable energy projects and protecting communities from climate challenges.

Challenges such as basis risk and lack of secondary trading liquidity have historically hindered the growth of the weather derivatives market. Basis risk, in particular, poses challenges in effectively hedging against localized weather risks. 

However, market players remain optimistic about the future of weather derivatives, citing their growing relevance in addressing climate-related risks and their increasing integration into mainstream financial markets.

In conclusion, the weather derivatives market is experiencing rapid growth as businesses seek to mitigate the financial impact of climate-related risks. While challenges remain, the increasing demand for weather derivatives underscores their importance in managing weather-related uncertainties in an era of climate change.

The post Weathering the Storm: The Rise of $25B Weather Derivatives Market appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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